Asashosakari

BTW, while @Katooshu will have a much better handle on the situation, I'm guessing this shouldn't be interpreted as "there are no overall good sumotori under 100 kg in high school". It's probably more likely that the good ones among them mostly focused on the main event and just didn't bother with the extra weight class competition, which further taints how meaningful the results from those actually are.

Since I'm looking it up anyway... 11 participants from the 80 kg bracket and 15 from the 100's were also present in the main tournament. (I'd say this double-dipping opportunity is another reason why those brackets shouldn't be tsukedashi-eligible, but I digress.) Here's how they did; weight class result first, open result second: For completeness I'll mention that the main event's knockout brackets had 66 qualifiers from the original 142, so Last 64 was the first match there for the four kids that made it through. So, yeah. Can't be equated in standard at all. Weight class events on the collegiate circuit were briefly eligible for makushita tsukedashi in the early 1990s, but they quickly reconsidered that.

I never really concerned myself with them before, but yeah, looking them up on the results site I see they're totally different from the main event, both in number of participants (just 45 and 44 versus 142), and in the format used (straight knockout, as opposed to the long-form prelims + knockout format they use for important tournaments). If I'm right that this only came up because somebody was looking for a loophole, I wonder which shisho we should point and laugh at in a few weeks.

Via Nikkan Sports who are first to publish the retirement list this time around, comprising 7 rikishi. Chiyoshishi (Kokonoe) - that thing... Kototakuya (Sadogatake) Daijo (Takadagawa) Tamanowaka (Tamanoi) Itoga (Sakaigawa) Kirizakura (Michinoku) - danpatsu took place after Aki basho Raikisho (Tokiwayama) Kirizakura gone officially now after it was already known but not acknowledged two months ago. He was the 18th-oldest active rikishi at the end of his tenure.

Jiji Press's phrasing is a bit odd there, but as far as I can tell it just means that the Kyokai has affirmed that only the "main" national high school tournament counts for SdTd purposes, not the weight-limited brackets that also run as part of the overall event. They probably got a request/inquiry pertaining to an upcoming shindeshi who did well in those this year.

Oh, Azumaryu's there? Not sure if that makes it more or less likely that we'll see him compete in makushita in January...

Looking at Saiwaifuji's player page has just been my periodic reminder of how depressingly undynamic I find the banzuke-making in SG to be.

New: Takerufuji - Ms1w 6-1, Isegahama-beya, Aomori, 24 years old Oshoumi - Ms2w 4-3, Naruto-beya, Ishikawa, 22 years old Returning: Hakuyozan - Ms1e 4-3, Takadagawa-beya, Yamagata, 28 years old, 5th promotion, back after 1 basho Tochimusashi - Ms3e 4-3, Kasugano-beya, Saitama, 24 years old, 2nd promotion, back after 4 basho

Daiki Nakamura clash! Idea shamelessly stolen, obviously, though the expected dynamic is a bit different than it was for Onosato-Hakuoho. Let's hope this one ends up a bit more suspenseful in any case. Britney Spears-type response choice included for the bonus question if you don't care for it. You have all year (ahem) before the poll closes.

We've got you covered. If Oshoma bullies his way out of ozumo sometime soon, he could become the first juryo yusho winner to neither go to makuuchi nor to makushita afterwards.

I'm surprised so many people take it as given that he's going to show up in January, considering the publicly communicated vibe back in August was "he's likely to have to start his comeback from a lower rank than his original debut".

Since there's speculation about it in the juryo promotion thread and my own guess that I drafted on Sunday actually does what's considered unlikely there here's what it presumably would have to look like if they try to retain some semblance of by-the-numbersness in lower juryo: Daiamami (J4e 9-6) J1 Mitoryu (J4w 9-6) Nishikifuji (M16w 6-9) J2 Tohakuryu (M15e 5-10) Roga (M16e 5-10) J3 Kotoeko (M10w 2-8-5) Kitanowaka (M17e 5-10) J4 Tamashoho (J7w 9-6) Chiyoshoma (J6e 8-7) J5 Oshoma (J3w 6-9) Kagayaki (J3e 5-10) J6 Tokihayate (J8w 8-7) Takahashi (J9e 8-7) J7 Shishi (J5w 6-9) Shimanoumi (J12e 9-6) J8 Shiden (J12w 9-6) Asakoryu (J13w 9-6) J9 Takerufuji (Ms1w 6-1) Daishoho (J7e 5-10) J10 Hakuyozan (Ms1e 4-3) Oshoumi (Ms2w 4-3) J11 Tochimusashi (Ms3e 4-3) Hidenoumi (J11w 6-7-2) J12 Chiyomaru (J8e 4-7-4) Yuma (J13e 7-8) J13 Akua (J10e 5-10) Chiyosakae (J14e 7-8) J14 Tenshoho (J10w 5-10) That aside: Not many differences to Gurowake's draft. Kotoeko/Roga flipped, Kagayaki two spots higher, and Takerufuji in front of Daishoho rather than behind. That J2e-J4e block sticks out to me. If that actually comes to pass, I wonder how often all demotees from the maegashira ranks have ended up in one block when there are that many of them.

Day 15 With the yusho decided, the finishing touches were put on the Kyushu LKS by the two remaining KK/MK decisions: Gonoyama secured a last-minute KK in his maegashira-joi debut, while Tomokaze's four-years-in-the-making top division return unfortunately ended in makekoshi. That did not look likely when he was 5-2 entering the middle Sunday... In the end, three players finished the basho in jun-yusho position. The final standings: Day 15: 17/17 Decisions, TB 11 Pos Player Pts TB 1 chishafuwaku 12 16 2 Bunbukuchagama 10 23 2 Profomisakari 10 17 2 Tetsuba 10 20 5 Asashosakari 9 16 5 ryafuji 9 16 5 Yarimotsu 9 18 8 Hakuryuho 8 19 8 Sakura 8 18 8 WAKATAKE 8 18 11 Athenayama 7 19 Those last two results were not what the two players in the middle of the Day 14 standings had ordered. Makekoshi it is. The less said about the tie-breaker, the better. The new ballot for Hatsu 2024: 1. Hoshoryu 12 2. Kotonowaka 11 Roga 10 Asanoyama 8 3. Takahashi 9* 4. Oshoumi 9 Wakamotoharu 7 5. Gonoyama 7 Tomokaze 6 Tenshoho 6 6. Takerufuji 7* Kyokutaisei 6 7. Daieisho 6 Shishi 5 8. Daiseizan 6 Kotosato 5* 9. Atamifuji 5 Kitanowaka 4 10. Satorufuji 5* 11. Wakaikari 5* --- 12. Onosato 4* Not many newcomers, but the three we're getting are all very interesting. Wakamotoharu exits, leaving us with three sanyaku-ranked rikishi for the game. Maybe Gonoyama or Atamifuji will bolster the ranks for March? The 12-name ballot is the shortest we'll have played since Kyushu 2019 which had only 9. (There have been several with 13 since then, though, so the upcoming one isn't as much of an outlier as that one was.)

(You know the drill, I'm afraid - Aki results coming soon.) If the DB isn't lying to me, this is the first time since Haru 2017 that three rikishi have concurrent active KK streaks of 10 or more tournaments. Close call a little under three years ago, however - both Hatsu and Haru 2021 had two and they were different pairs, first Kotoshoho / Terunofuji and then Terunofuji / Yoshii, so that one just lacked a Kotoshoho KK to make it three as well. (Then again, his result was a 2-13...) Anyway, here's the lineup for Kyushu 2023: 1. Hoshoryu 11 [score?] 2. Kotonowaka 10 [score?] 3. Roga 10 4. Takahashi 8* 5. Oshoumi 8 6. Wakamotoharu 7 [score?] 7. Gonoyama 6 8. Tomokaze 6 9. Tenshoho 6 10. Takerufuji 6* 11. Kyokutaisei 6 12. Daieisho 5 [score?] 13. Shishi 5 14. Daiseizan 5 15. Kotosato 5* 16. Atamifuji 4 17. Kitanowaka 4 TB: [pick?] (* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut) The scoring and thus your game assignment: For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction. For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction. (For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.) First tie-breaker: From among those 17 guys up there and the further 10 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak (5 'veterans' + 5 newcomers), please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 27. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records. Next 16 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hoshoryu. Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order). Final tie-breaker: earliest entry. Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker. Deadline: Shonichi 2pm JST. ----- Simplified entry template: 1. Hoshoryu W-L 2. Kotonowaka W-L 3. Roga KKMK 4. Takahashi KKMK 5. Oshoumi KKMK 6. Wakamotoharu W-L 7. Gonoyama KKMK 8. Tomokaze KKMK 9. Tenshoho KKMK 10. Takerufuji KKMK 11. Kyokutaisei KKMK 12. Daieisho W-L 13. Shishi KKMK 14. Daiseizan KKMK 15. Kotosato KKMK 16. Atamifuji KKMK 17. Kitanowaka KKMK TB xx ----- Good luck!

Hmm. I just realized that I took something for granted that isn't actually true. It's possible that the Y/O count might actually differ between the up to and the prev to, even though both banzuke fulfill the all-winners criteria, namely in case a rikishi who has won retires or joins, leaving the lineup's all-win quality intact. Edit: Table corrected (in a less than pretty way, but oh well).

Not 1993. The Kyushu banzuke still had non-winner Konishiki.

It was easier to generalize this, so I checked it for any 6-basho period. I tested for two different things: a) last six yusho winners up to and including the basho of the banzuke (e.g. winners from 2023.01-2023.11 include all Y/O on the 2023.11 banzuke), and b) last six previous yusho winners (e.g. winners from 2023.01-2023.11 include all Y/O on the 2024.01 banzuke). These can occur separately if a non-winning Y/O retires after the basho, leaving the ranks populated only by winners, or if a non-winning sekiwake gets promoted to ozeki, breaking up an all-winners lineup. (Edit: And it's also possible for them to occur together but with different sets of rikishi, in case a winning Y/O retires or a winning sekiwake gets promoted.) #R = number of Y/O rikishi on the matching banzuke (one number = applies to "up to" and "prev to" as cases match; two numbers = first applies to "up to", second to "prev to") #Y = number of yusho these Y/O rikishi combined for (ditto) 6 Yusho #R #Y Up to Prev to 1931.05-1932.10 3 4 1933.01 1969.01-1969.11 5 6 1969.11 1970.01 1969.03-1970.01 5 6 1970.01 1970.03 1974.05-1975.03 4 6 1975.03 1975.05 1974.07-1975.05 4 6 1975.05 1975.07 1974.09-1975.07 4 5 1975.07 1975.09 1975.05-1976.03 4 5 1976.03 1980.05-1981.03 3 5 1981.05 1980.07-1981.05 3 5 1981.05 1981.07 1980.09-1981.07 3 5 1981.07 1981.09 1991.01-1991.11 4 4 1991.11 1992.01 1992.01-1992.11 2 3 1993.01 1992.03-1993.01 2/3 4/5 1993.01 1993.03 1993.01-1993.11 3 6 1994.01 1993.03-1994.01 3 6 1994.01 1997.05-1998.03 5 6 1998.03 1998.05 2020.09-2021.07 4 5 2021.09 2022.03-2023.01 2 2 2023.01 2023.03 2022.05-2023.03 2 2 2023.03 2023.05 2022.07-2023.05 2/3 2/3 2023.05 2023.07 2022.09-2023.07 3/4 3/4 2023.07 2023.09 2022.11-2023.09 4 5 2023.09 2023.11 2023.01-2023.11 4 6 2023.11 2024.01 It has never been done by a group of 6 Y/O, but a group of 5 has done it in 5 tournaments (1969.03-1969.11).

I could honestly also see Hitoshi given a bigger parachute than I did there, so that's another potential candidate for the last spot. Putting him before Hakuoho would go against the numbers, but I don't think they would consider it indefensible (see Fujiseiun vs Chiyonoumi recently). Actually, now that I'm looking at that I'm left to wonder if Fujiseiun's non-appearance at Ms5e might have played a role in Wakatakakage not getting a top 5 position two months later.

A quickly composed rough attempt: Kayo (Ms6w 6-1) Ms1 Wakatakakage (Ms6e 5-2) Tsushimanada (Ms4w 4-3) Ms2 Takakento (J9w 3-12) Kitaharima (Ms11e 6-1) Ms3 Satorufuji (Ms42w 7-0 Y) Chiyonoumi (Ms7e 4-3) Ms4 Kiryuko (Ms8e 4-3) Yago (Ms9e 4-3) Ms5 Hatsuyama (Ms13w 5-2) Hakuoho (J6w 0-0-15) Ms6 Hitoshi (J11e 2-13) 4 ranks as the 4-3/5-2 equivalent difference seems on par for that area of the banzuke, so Hatsuyama next to Yago wouldn't be out of place (and they pushed Otsuji up all the way from Ms17e last time anyway). Kitadaichi at Ms5w would work, too, but I think the above shows that that's not even strictly necessary to get Hakuoho beyond the top 5.

The lowest-ranked 6-1 record in makushita in the just-concluded tournament was posted by Ms36w Chiyonoo. All of Ms37-Ms60 being devoid of a 6-1 score had never happened before. (The previous record holder was Aki 1970 with the last 6-1 at Ms37w. Not even a 7-0 score down there in that one, unlike this time.)

After I thought Wakatakakage would be slotted in way higher than they ended up doing, I'm inclined to expect Hakuoho at the same Ms6e. With WTK it looked to me like a crappy "let's not make it too easy for him" thing at first, but with some emotional distance I now wonder if they did it exactly because they're putting such a premium on being ranked in the top 5 if a rikishi wants to be promoted. If, as the committee, you're not sure at all that the injured guy you're about to send out of juryo will actually stage his return in the next basho, maybe you're thinking "we should give these valuable 10 spots to rikishi who can actually make use of them"? And so, considering Hakuoho's return for January appears to be even more iffy than WTK's was for this month...

The Kokonoe thing made the rounds on here a short while ago, see here and subsequent comments. (TL;DR There were short-ish breaks in representation that are frequently forgotten.) Other heya streaks were brought up by the press (via Akinomaki here) when the most recent banzuke came out.

Individual athletes aren't collectively employed in other such sports, though. The better comparison to sumo would be some team sport club/franchise where the front office decides which of their contracted minor league players deserves to be called up to the first team. That's no less subjective.

Yeah, I can't see any realistic scenario that could possibly have him go higher than M6w.

Oh joy, it only just occurred to me that we're going to have another "will they do that stupid thing with the two sekiwake scores again" GTB.