Asashosakari

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Everything posted by Asashosakari

  1. Asashosakari

    New recruits Nagoya 2024??

    Day 6 Abema came back from showing highlights a touch late, so the initial yobidashi announcement was mostly missed. Results: Mz5 Furuta (2-2) Mz2 Aoifuji (1-3) Mz3 Fujiizumi (3-1) Mz6 Kumanishiki (0-4) Mz5 Furuta (2-3) Mz4 Goseizan (3-1) Sure enough, they opted for a simpler solution than I had envisioned by giving the two 2-win guys separate opponents. Really good match between Furuta and Goseizan again, if very similar to the one they had yesterday. Final standings: 3-win target achieved #1 Mz1 Nakashima Musashigawa 3-0 #2 Mz3 Fujiizumi Nishikido 3-1 #3 Mz4 Goseizan Takekuma 3-1 Remaining order #4 Mz5 Furuta Nishonoseki 2-3 #5 Mz2 Aoifuji Isegahama 1-3 #6 Mz6 Kumanishiki Takekuma 0-4 Goseizan looks talented, but not like an odds-on favourite to become sekitori, so we'll probably get quite a few years to watch him progress (or eventually stall out, as the case may be). For his Takekuma stablemate Kumanishiki I just hope he gets to enjoy his time in sumo. And Furuta...I suppose it's nice that the Nishonoseki/Onosato combination has sufficient pull to bring buddies of the latter into professional sumo, but I'm not all that sure what Furuta himself will get out of this. He'll surely reach makushita, but he will be 24 before he even hits sandanme, and it looks likely that he'll be taking the scenic route through that division with 5-2's and 4-3's, not the 7-0/6-1 expressway. If nothing else, I suppose he'll be a good test case for how much the progressive Nishonoseki-beya setup can truly get out of rikishi that other stables might not. Public presentation in two days, then we're done here.
  2. Asashosakari

    Nagoya 2024 discussion (results)

    That Meisei-Tobizaru match was the sumo version of Groundhog Day, 20 seconds of the same thing happening over and over.
  3. Asashosakari

    New recruits Nagoya 2024??

    Day 5 Video quality a bit subpar today, Abema's on-demand recording had one of its days again. All six participants continued to be in action. Results: Mz1 Nakashima (3-0) Mz3 Fujiizumi (2-1) Mz5 Furuta (1-2) Mz4 Goseizan (2-1) Mz6 Kumanishiki (0-3) Mz2 Aoifuji (1-2) Really good sumo in the first two bouts today, and some downright breath-taking finishes by maezumo standards. Standings: 3-win target achieved #1 Mz1 Nakashima Musashigawa 3-0 Still active Mz3 Fujiizumi Nishikido 2-1 E | Mz2 Aoifuji Isegahama 1-2 W | Mz6 Kumanishiki Takekuma 0-3 W Mz4 Goseizan Takekuma 2-1 W | Mz5 Furuta Nishonoseki 1-2 E Should be one more day now. Wild guess at the likely matchups (disclaimer: my track record with these is highly dubious): Furuta - Aoifuji Fujiizumi - Goseizan [for 3-win qualification] Kumanishiki - Loser of bout 1 Winner of bout 1 - Loser of bout 2 [for 3-win qualification] Plus, if they actually do it that way, possibly yet another 3-win qualifier bout if Kumanishiki loses his match, because that would still leave two rikishi on two wins (Kumanishiki's opponent and the loser of bout 4).
  4. Asashosakari

    Kyujo Updates - 2024 Nagoya

    Chiyoshoma joins tomorrow.
  5. Asashosakari

    Seki-Toto/Quad/Oracle banzuke for Natsu 2024

    The top players' results are normally clustered very tightly around a rather high mean, so if the top bracket used the same conversion from points to wins that the lower sections do, we'd frequently have nobody finishing better than 10-5. To prevent that, the formula is very aggressive in rewarding additional points with additional wins. In any case, it's a linear formula so in rare cases where some scores just tower over the rest of the field (essentially only when gambled picks like those on Terunofuji here come through), they can blow way past the nominal 15-0 bracket. The scoring conversion for the Haru results looked like this: Your score was 577, so just into the 15-0's. Kaito's was 585. The two outlier scores by players in lower makuuchi were 580 and 577, so those would have converted to 15-0 by the high makuuchi formula, too. (Nobody else finished higher than 570.) Such relative outliers tend to occur more often in the lower two brackets, because their mean scores typically trail the top bracket by 5 to 10 (low maku) / 10 to 20 (juryo/Ms) points, which means the points-per-win equivalence must be larger there, or we'd have 15-0 (and 0-15) scores there all the time.
  6. (Comments to be added tomorrow have been added below.) Seki-Toto (play): Pandaazuma (Yw 10-5) Y1 Norizo (Ye 8-7) Kaito (O1e 12-3 Y) Y2 - Susanoo (O1w 11-4) O1 Golynohana (O2e 9-6) Ganzohnesushi (O3e 8-6-1) O2 ScreechingOwl (O2w 7-7-1) - O3 Joaoiyama (O3w 7-8) Flohru (Sw 10-5) S Andoreasu (Kw 10-5) Metzinowaka (Ke 9-6) K Oskahanada (M1w 10-5) Unkonoyama (Se 8-7) M1 Kotononami (M3w 10-5) DeRosa (M4e 9-6) M2 Chishafuwaku (M9e 11-4) Kobashi (M7w 10-5) M3 Jakusotsu (M5w 9-6) Itchynotoe (M10e 10-5) M4 Chelseayama (M2e 7-8) Frinkanohana (M2w 7-8) M5 Athenayama (M7e 8-7) Bill (M3e 7-8) M6 Gansekiiwa (M10w 9-6) Kajiyanosho (M8w 8-7) M7 Konosato (M4w 7-8) Kintamayama (M5e 7-7-1) M8 Chijanofuji (J1e 11-4) Balon (M1e 4-11) M9 GONZABUROW (M12e 8-7) Gaanaag (M6e 6-8-1) M10 Oortael (M12w 8-7) Ahokaina (M13e 8-7) M11 Toonoryu (M8e 6-9) Terarno (M14w 8-6-1) M12 Gernobono (M15w 8-7) Ketsukai (M11w 7-8) M13 Asapedroryu (J2e 9-6) Effinojo (M6w 4-11) M14 Herritarooo (J1w 8-7) Mariohana (M11e 5-10) M15 Kashunowaka (J3w 8-7) TochiYESshin (M13w 6-9) J1 Tomisakae (M9w 4-3-8) Kitakachiyama (J5e 8-7) J2 Rowitoro (J8w 9-6) Gawasukotto (J2w 7-8) J3 Hana-ichi (M15e 5-10) Onakaderu (J4e 7-8) J4 Andonishiki (M14e 4-9-2) Fujisan (J10w 9-4-2) J5 Asashosakari (J4w 7-8) Ulishimaru (J13e 10-5) J6 Sakura (J3e 6-9) Kishikaisei (J6e 7-7-1) J7 Oyama (J14w 10-5) Saruyama (J7w 7-7-1) J8 Kuroimori (J5w 6-9) Bunbukuchagama (J12w 8-7) J9 Kaiowaka (J6w 6-9) BlackPinkMawashi (J7e 6-9) J10 Chudorj (J9w 7-8) Benihana (Ms1w 8-7) J11 WAKATAKE (Ms2w 8-7) Tetsuba (J12e kosho) J12 Choshu-yuki (J9e 5-10) Holleshoryu (J11w 6-9) J13 Getayukata (J13w kosho) Joputosu (J14e 7-8) J14 Umigame (J10e 5-10) Takanorappa (J8e 4-7-4) Ms1 Unagiyutaka2 (Ms6w 8-6-1) Beeftank (J11e 4-11) Ms2 Achiyama (Ms4e 7-6-2) Gusoyama (Ms2e 6-6-3) Ms3 Profomisakari (Ms3e 6-9) Papayasu (Ms3w 6-9) Ms4 Anjoboshi (Ms5e 6-9) Dan Koloff (Ms6e 6-9) Ms5 Akishiki (Ms4w 5-10) Warusaru (NR 6-8-1) Ms6 Hakunojo (Ms5w 4-10-1) Hidenotora (Ms7e kosho) Ms7 Taiki (NR 4-8-3) Toki (NR 2-4-9) Ms8 Sherlockiama (Ms8w kosho) Hisui (Ms1e 0-2-13) Ms9 BariiHachiBenson (Ms9w kosho) Netsuzakura (Ms7w 0-3-12) Ms10 Nantonoyama (Ms9e 0-0-15) Doitsuyama (NR 0-1-14) Ms11 -
  7. Asashosakari

    Nagoya 2024 discussion (results)

    Today's Hokuseiho impression brought one thing to the forefront to me: I do not understand what has made Oshoma more successful the last couple of tournaments than he was while stuck in juryo for two years.
  8. Asashosakari

    New recruits Nagoya 2024??

    Day 4 Everybody still on board. Results: Mz5 Furuta (1-1) Mz3 Fujiizumi (2-0) Mz1 Nakashima (2-0) Mz6 Kumanishiki (0-2) Mz4 Goseizan (1-1) Mz2 Aoifuji (0-2) Nothing particularly noteworthy today. Somewhat bad luck for Aoifuji that they picked Goseizan from the Takekuma duo as his opponent, Kumanishiki might have been easier. But we should still see that match in any case. Standings: Mz1 Nakashima Musashigawa 2-0 E | Mz4 Goseizan Takekuma 1-1 W | Mz2 Aoifuji Isegahama 0-2 W Mz3 Fujiizumi Nishikido 2-0 E | Mz5 Furuta Nishonoseki 1-1 E | Mz6 Kumanishiki Takekuma 0-2 W Presumably three matches paired up by record tomorrow and thus one 3-0 qualifier, and one more day after that.
  9. Asashosakari

    Seki-Toto/Quad/Oracle banzuke for Natsu 2024

    Seki-Oracle: Yokozuna Terunofuji's bad start and subsequent withdrawal with only 2 wins opened up the Haru edition of Oracle for players who had gambled on that outcome, and two managed to combine that tactic with sufficiently strong picks on the rest of the ballot to finish miles ahead. But even two further players who were blindsided by Terunofuji's result still managed to put significant distance between themselves and the rest of the field. Ozeki Kaito was the very best of those top four and ended up with both the yusho and a converted 15-0 record. 8 wins were a necessity since he'd entered the basho as one of two kadoban ozeki, but now it turned directly into a tsunatori for Natsu, already the third time he's gunning for the top rank. (The other opportunities were in Nagoya 2022 following a jun-yusho and Aki 2023 after a yusho; both ended in single-digit KKs.) Another pair of ozeki, Golynohana and freshly promoted Andoreasu, both posted credible 10 wins, while chishafuwaku, the other kadoban, unfortunately went makekoshi again to lose the rank. Sole yokozuna Oskanohana fulfilled his responsibilities with 10 wins of his own. Getting back to the four Haru top players: Beeftank, despite finishing 8 points behind Kaito, also saw his result scored as a 15-0 and jumped up to sekiwake. He's joined by incumbent Asashosakari who narrowly held on with an 8-7, Flohru who's up from komusubi, and demoted chishafuwaku. The other two top performers were located in the lower half of makuuchi where the scoring rules usually don't allow for extremely high W-L conversions, and so Kobashi (12-3) and Papayasu (11-4) ended up with comparatively low records. Nevertheless they received significant promotions in recognition of their pure results, Kobashi from M8 to komusubi and Papayasu from M15 all the way to M2. In general both the upper and lower makuuchi player groups scored in similar fashion this basho, which meant there was no room for the leniency usually shown to joi-jin makekoshi.
  10. Asashosakari

    New recruits Nagoya 2024??

    Day 3 Nakashima and Fujiizumi were joined as returning rikishi by Isegahama-beya's Aoifuji, back after five missed tournaments. Mongolian Baatar/Goseizan, held over from the Natsu shindeshi kensa, and the two true rookies Harada/Kumanishiki and Furuta complete the field for this maezumo session. Skip to the 2:00 mark if you don't care for the mundane impressions of people waiting that Abema caught before the action and I decided to keep in. (With rather varied camera angles, so not necessarily boring to watch.) Results: Mz1 Nakashima (1-0) Mz2 Aoifuji (0-1) Mz3 Fujiizumi (1-0) Mz4 Goseizan (0-1) Mz5 Furuta (1-0) Mz6 Kumanishiki (0-1) Poor Kimura Yunosuke getting all but ignored by the rikishi of the second bout as he tried to sort out what he needed to announce. And Fujiizumi seemed rather proud of himself after winning. I suppose he deserves to be cut some slack, considering how long he was away from the dohyo. Standings: Mz1 Nakashima Musashigawa 1-0 E | Mz2 Aoifuji Isegahama 0-1 W Mz3 Fujiizumi Nishikido 1-0 E | Mz4 Goseizan Takekuma 0-1 W Mz5 Furuta Nishonoseki 1-0 E | Mz6 Kumanishiki Takekuma 0-1 W I hope the returnees don't all stop showing up after one bout, because if they do we'll be done here after tomorrow...
  11. Asashosakari

    Makuuchi Consecutive Match Tracker

    The page in question also says this at the top: Looks accurate to me as of that date, the data in this thread is identical.
  12. Asashosakari

    New recruits Nagoya 2024??

    How odd...Kumanishiki and Goseizan have already had their shikona added to their Kyokai profiles, which normally only happens after the nakabi presentation. I gather that it wasn't like that yet when Naganoyama grabbed the data on Sunday, so I wonder when this was changed. (And whether it's actually going to continue for future maezumo sessions...)
  13. Asashosakari

    Nagoya 2024 discussion (results)

    So you're saying that you're about to hit forum puberty?
  14. Asashosakari

    Nagoya 2024 discussion (results)

    Kotozakura is right there.
  15. Asashosakari

    Seki-Toto/Quad/Oracle banzuke for Nagoya 2024

    Seki-Quadrumvirate (play): Quad's scores in Natsu were down significantly from the Haru heights, but the yusho line still reached respectable 12 wins, achieved by Kitakachiyama. Oddly enough, the distribution of records behind the winner matched those of Haru basho exactly, with three jun-yusho finishers one win behind and another sixpack of players two wins off. All in all the top division had fairly balanced results (303-292 = 50.9% wins, 22 KK and 19 MK), while the rest of the field trailed by almost exactly one win on average (259-326 = 44.3% wins, 11 KK and 30 MK). Having freed themselves of all demotion concerns two months prior, the ozeki squad fell back to mostly average results. Ganzohnesushi posted an 8-7 score, having been in yusho contention through the first week at 7-1, while Jakusotsu and Norizo finished 7-8 to become soft kadoban again. Especially unfortunate for the latter whose Haru jun-yusho could have been a building block towards tsunatori. Fellow ozeki Kaito had that same thing happen four months earlier, when a Kyushu 2023 yusho was followed by makekoshi in January. He has since bounced back with two top 10 finishes (last time one of many among the ozeki, this basho the only one), both two wins behind the respective champion, which could prove vital in case his Nagoya result is extremely good. Last not least, Golynohana's retirement meant the departure of an active ozeki in Quad as well. His spot is not being refilled immediately, but both Natsu sekiwake have built a strong case towards Nagoya: Kobashi has now scored 8/8/10 wins since getting demoted from ozeki, while Oskanohana has produced the rather hard-luck string of M1w 10-5 D / Ke 10-5 J / S1w 7-8 / M1w 11-4 J / Sw 10-5. If only that middle score had been a kachikoshi... Nevertheless, they are joined at the third-highest rank by two more players. Unkonoyama deservedly moves up from komusubi with his second straight 10-5 record, while the fourth slot is taken by yusho winner Kitakachiyama, up from M3e. Two other komusubi finished 8-7 to retain the rank, and they too are accompanied by two promotees, Flohru and chishafuwaku. If you're not scoring along at home: This means the Nagoya banzuke has 4 ozeki, 4 sekiwake and 4 komusubi. This well-balanced arrangement has only been seen twice before, all the way back in 2011 (Hatsu and Aki). Despite the balanced W-L totals and slight preponderance of KK records, the makuuchi re-ranking ran into some trouble after M9e with very few further kachikoshi to assign (it didn't help that all of juryo only had four...), so the promotions got large, the demotions got small, and even all 7-8 players got to move up slightly from that point forward. I doubt anyone will be complaining, of course. Kaito (O2e 10-5) O1 Ganzohnesushi (O2w 8-7) Norizo (O1e 7-8) O2 Jakusotsu (O1w 7-8) Kobashi (Se 10-5) S1 Oskahanada (Sw 10-5) Unkonoyama (K2w 10-5) S2 Kitakachiyama (M3e 12-3 Y) ScreechingOwl (K1w 8-7) K1 Athenayama (K2e 8-7) Flohru (M1e 9-6) K2 chishafuwaku (M1w 9-6) Susanoo (M2w 8-7) M1 Kashunowaka (M7w 10-5) Choshu-yuki (M7e 9-6) M2 Achiyama (M13e 11-4) Oortael (M6e 8-7) M3 Andrasoyama (K1e 5-10) Bill (M6w 8-7) M4 Kamibaka (M15e 11-4) Pandaazuma (M3w 7-8) M5 Kishikaisei (M8e 8-6-1) Konosato (M5w 7-8) M6 Mariohana (M10e 8-6-1) GONZABUROW (M2e 5-10) M7 DeRosa (M12w 9-5-1) Andoreasu (M11w 8-6-1) M8 joaoiyama (M4e 5-10) Asapedroryu (M9e 7-8) M9 Chocshoporyu (M4w 4-10-1) Kotononami (M5e 4-11) M10 Sakura (M10w kosho) Balon (M15w 8-7) M11 BlackPinkMawashi (J2w 9-6) Hironoumi (J9e 11-3-1) M12 Asashosakari (M13w 7-8) Kaiowaka (M9w 5-10) M13 Kuroimori (M14w 7-7-1) Gansekiiwa (M8w 4-10-1) M14 Frinkanohana (M11e 5-10) Kintamayama (M12e 5-10) M15 Gernobono (J8e 9-6) Kyodaitimu (J2e 7-8) J1 Metzinowaka (M14e 5-10) Gusoyama (J8w 8-6-1) J2 Kajiyanosho (J1e 6-9) TochiYESshin (J4w 7-8) J3 Getayukata (M16e 5-10) Bunbukuchagama (J6e 7-8) J4 Papayasu (J1w 5-10) Hakase (J4e 6-9) J5 Ketsukai (J3e 5-10) Oyama (J5w 6-9) J6 Andonishiki (J3w 5-10) Saruyama (J6w 6-8-1) J7 Kakushoyama (Ms6w 10-5) KonyaGaYamada (Ms4e 9-6) J8 Kasamatsuri (Ms1e 8-6-1) Fujisan (J7e 5-8-2) J9 Hakushin (J9w kosho) Rowitoro (Ms4w 8-7) J10 Nantonoyama (J10w 6-7-2) Beeftank (J13w 7-8) J11 Hisui (Ms8w 9-6) Doreikishi (J14w 7-8) J12 Jejima (J5e 3-11-1) reeeen (J7w 4-11) J13 Chankoyama (J11w 5-10) Anjoboshi (J12e 5-8-2) J14 Hogashi (J12w 5-10) Netsuzakura (Ms9w 8-6-1) Ms1 Holleshoryu (Ms1w kosho) Profomisakari (Ms2e kosho) Ms2 Unagiyutaka (J13e 5-9-1) Terarno (J11e 4-11) Ms3 itchynotoe (Ms5w 7-8) lonewolf (NR 8-7) Ms4 Sukubidubidu (J10e 3-9-3) Chibiyama (Ms5e kosho) Ms5 Ruziklao (J14e 4-11) Hakunojo (Ms6e 6-8-1) Ms6 Joputosu (Ms9e 7-8) WAKATAKE (Ms7e kosho) Ms7 Takanorappa (Ms2w 4-5-6) Warusaru (Ms8e 6-9) Ms8 Terukaze (NR 7-7-1) Furanohana (Ms3w 2-7-6) Ms9 Tetsuba (Ms3e 0-0-15) bariihachibenson (Ms10e kosho) Ms10 Hidenotora (Ms7w 0-0-15) Thorn of Queens (Ms11e kosho) Ms11 -
  16. Seki-Toto (play): After Kaito's promotion to yokozuna for its banzuke, the top two ranks continued to be a source of interesting developments in Natsu basho: Yokozuna Pandaazuma won the championship with a splendid score of 14-1 (only the second 14-win result in the 2020's). It's his first yusho since he had earned the promotion to the top rank some four years ago, though not the first time atop the standings; two earlier ties for a tournament's best result had seen other competitors prevail in the yusho tie-breaking with Pandaazuma thus finishing "only" doten runner-up there. Shin-yokozuna Kaito posted a respectable 10-5 record for his top rank debut, while Norizo only finished 8-7 for the second basho in a row. That has prompted me to address the still-open issue of what to do with the yokozuna retirement rules now that ozeki are being treated less leniently. More on that in a separate comment after this one. One rank down, major upheavals occurred. Golynohana declared his all-games intai two days into the basho (I hope you'll consider another comeback if/when time permits!), and Joaoiyama and ScreechingOwl both tacked on another makekoshi to the one they had in March, resulting in their demotions from the ozeki rank. Ganzohnesushi, also carrying one demerit point from back-to-back 8-7's, narrowly cleared his name with a 9th win on senshuraku. The one ozeki who delivered a strong Natsu result was the same as in January and May, as Susanoo achieved 11 wins again. That created quite the conundrum: 2024.01 O2w 12-3 J (tied for 2nd-3rd) 2024.03 O1w 11-4 J (tied for 2nd-4th overall, 2nd-3rd in makuuchi) 2024.05 O1e 11-4 (tied for 4th-6th overall, 4th-5th in makuuchi) Susanoo is of course the game's only former yokozuna - he voluntarily gave up the rank after Haru 2021 following back-to-back makekoshi, and started again from the bottom. He only needed 15 basho to become ozeki again and has been back at the rank for four tournaments now, and if I was giving full credit for past achievements I just might have considered these three results sufficient for another promotion to yokozuna. However, I really can't consider anything that happened before 2021, and the lack of any yusho/doten scores during the current ozeki stint made it very difficult to justify a promotion even though these were clearly very strong back-to-back-to-back finishes. Obviously this is still a continuing tsunatori, and I hope the Nagoya results will allow for a clear decision to be made, one way or the other. With all that we're down from five ozeki to just two in one fell swoop, which hopefully relaxes the situation a bit for the lower sanyaku ranks for the next few tournaments. And in fact we had a big clearing of the decks there as well, after all four incumbent S/K left Natsu basho with makekoshi records. The new banzuke features only the two demoted ozeki as sekiwake (that's almost certainly a first), along with five fresh komusubi promoted from the maegashira ranks. These include the two runners-up Athenayama and Kajiyanosho who finished Natsu at 12-3, two wins behind Pandaazuma. The rest of the top division ranking worked out okay until M11e. From that point on, a massive lack of KK records led to some exceedingly generous promotions and lenient demotions to be able to fill the remaining makuuchi spots. Pandaazuma (Y1e 14-1 Y) Y1 Kaito (Y2e 10-5) Norizo (Y1w 8-7) Y2 - Susanoo (O1e 11-4) O Ganzohnesushi (O2e 9-6) Joaoiyama (O3w 7-8) S ScreechingOwl (O2w 6-8-1) Kobashi (M3e 11-4) K1 Athenayama (M5w 12-3) Kajiyanosho (M7e 12-3) K2 Kotononami (M1w 9-5-1) - K3 Chishafuwaku (M2w 9-6) Unkonoyama (M1e 8-7) M1 Bill (M6e 10-5) Flohru (Se 7-8) M2 Konosato (M7w 10-5) Itchynotoe (M4e 8-7) M3 Chijanofuji (M8w 10-5) Andoreasu (Sw 6-9) M4 GONZABUROW (M9w 10-5) Oskahanada (Kw 6-9) M5 DeRosa (M2e 7-7-1) Gansekiiwa (M6w 8-6-1) M6 Metzinowaka (Ke 5-10) Chelseayama (M4w 7-8) M7 Jakusotsu (M3w 6-9) TochiYESshin (J1e 11-4) M8 Frinkanohana (M5e 6-9) Asapedroryu (M13w 9-6) M9 Toonoryu (M11w 8-7) Gernobono (M12w 8-7) M10 Balon (M9e 7-8) Effinojo (M14e 8-7) M11 Rowitoro (J2w 9-6) Oortael (M10w 6-7-2) M12 Gaanaag (M10e 5-10) Kuroimori (J8w 10-4-1) M13 Bunbukuchagama (J9e 10-5) Onakaderu (J4e 8-7) M14 Herritarooo (M14w kosho) Terarno (M12e 5-10) M15 Kintamayama (M8e 3-12) Mariohana (M15e 6-9) J1 Tomisakae (J1w kosho) Kashunowaka (M15w 6-9) J2 Kitakachiyama (J2e 7-8) Gawasukotto (J3e 7-8) J3 Ahokaina (M11e 3-12) Hana-ichi (J3w 7-8) J4 Andonishiki (J4w 7-7-1) BlackPinkMawashi (J10e 8-7) J5 Asashosakari (J5w 7-8) Ulishimaru (J6e kosho) J6 Sakura (J6w kosho) Achiyama (Ms2w 10-5) J7 Kishikaisei (J7e 7-8) Ketsukai (M13e 2-13) J8 Unagiyutaka2 (Ms1w 9-5-1) Saruyama (J8e 7-7-1) J9 Warusaru (Ms6e 10-5) Anjoboshi (Ms4w 9-5-1) J10 Beeftank (Ms2e 8-7) Fujisan (J5e 4-9-2) J11 WAKATAKE (J11w kosho) Kaiowaka (J9w 6-9) J12 Chudorj (J10w 6-8-1) Holleshoryu (J13e kosho) J13 Benihana (J11e 6-8-1) Akishiki (Ms5w 8-7) J14 Umigame (J14w 7-8) Getayukata (J13w 6-9) Ms1 Biloumaru (NR 9-6) Papayasu (Ms4e 7-7-1) Ms2 Oyama (J7w 2-13) Joputosu (J14e 5-10) Ms3 Profomisakari (Ms3w kosho) Choshu-yuki (J12w 4-11) Ms4 Gusoyama (Ms3e 6-8-1) Takanorappa (Ms1e 5-4-6) Ms5 Katoomaru (NR 7-8) Hakunojo (Ms6w 4-10-1) Ms6 Dan Koloff (Ms5e 3-12) Tetsuba (J12e 0-0-15) Ms7 Taiki (Ms7w kosho) Toki (Ms8e kosho) Ms8 Hidenotora (Ms7e 0-0-15) Hisui (Ms9e kosho) Ms9 Sherlockiama (Ms8w 0-0-15) Netsuzakura (Ms10e kosho) Ms10 BariiHachiBenson (Ms9w 0-0-15) Doitsuyama (Ms11e kosho) Ms11 -
  17. Asashosakari

    Seki-Toto/Quad/Oracle banzuke for Natsu 2024

    Seki-Quadrumvirate: Haru 2024 proved to be a high-scoring edition of the game, at least for the more accomplished half of the field occupying the makuuchi ranks, who averaged 8.6 wins and consequently had to be downgraded into a more manageable win-loss distribution with 20 KK and 21 MK records. That resulted in a new top division banzuke without any significant issues and typically pretty generous movements. The Quad high-rankers had entered Haru with quite some baggage including soft kadoban status for Kaito and Golynohana and even hard kadoban for Norizo and Ganzohnesushi, with only Jakusotsu free of demotion worries. However, they performed exceedingly well as a group and even their records after the scoring adjustment were nothing short of impressive with no less than four scores of 10+, led by Norizo's 12-3 -> 11-4 jun-yusho. Just Golynohana cut things close and secured his 9-6 -> 8-7 score only on the final day. The contenders for a promotion to ozeki didn't do nearly that well; recently demoted Kobashi scored his second straight 8-7 record since dropping down, and Susanoo went MK. The best komusubi record after adjustments was only a single 8-7 as well, which left the door open for somebody else to claim the second sekiwake slot. And M1w Oskanohana duly did so as another jun-yusho performer, jumping past komusubi straight into the third-highest rank. Sanyaku remained steady overall with a 5 O / 2 S / 4 K distribution, and komusubi holdover ScreechingOwl ended up joined by a trio of promotees including Haru yusho winner Athenayama, the only player to achieve a 13-2 -> 12-3 result. Juryo and makushita scored almost bang-on 50% wins (299-304) altogether, but the first few juryo ranks were closer in performance to the top division results, so with no scoring adjustment happening down there things briefly got rather crowded. A few KK players who might have hoped for a promotion to makuuchi ended up stuck, while some small makekoshi led to outsized demotions. On a final note: Haru 2024 was the 20-year anniversary of Seki-Quad's first official edition! Many thanks to all players past, present and future.
  18. Asashosakari

    Games Bugs

    @Golynohana When time permits, please mark Chiyoshoma and Takerufuji as kyujo in Quad Oracle and remove Kintamayama's empty entry.
  19. Asashosakari

    Games Bugs

    What error message do you receive at https://members.sumogames.de/ForgotPassword.aspx? Or does the password reset request work and you're just not getting the email with that new password? (I just tried and it worked fine, but I imagine not getting the mail would spell trouble since the old password is immediately made invalid and then you don't have the new one. Anyway, the system really ought to confirm via the email that the password change request was actually legit in the first place, not just reset it immediately... Also, why can the security question not be changed?)
  20. Asashosakari

    Kyujo Updates - 2024 Nagoya

    Takayasu is out (Nikkan).
  21. Asashosakari

    Seki-Toto/Quad/Oracle banzuke for Nagoya 2024

    To recap, these are the recently revised rules for ozeki: Previously, Toto used the standard "MK = kadoban, second MK = demotion, any 8-7 or better = clear" rule, except for tournaments in which the whole makuuchi division averaged 8.5 wins or more. That meant that ozeki somewhat frequently saved themselves from demotion with an 8-7 score that was actually below the divisional average, hence the new rule that counts 8 wins as half a makekoshi. For yokozuna, the rule thus far has been this: Retirement is mandatory if they score three consecutive makekoshi, or four in a period of six tournaments. This is identical to what's in use for both Quad and Oracle, although it's been a lot more relevant for those since even top players will makekoshi much more easily there. Here in Toto it's been rather toothless and has never been called for, although our three pre-Kaito yokozuna came close a few times (I'll be listing these later on to demonstrate the potential impact of the new rules). So, things need to get a bit harder - while still giving yokozuna-ranked players a little bit more protection than ozeki. And that will mean the following: Yokozuna will be subject to the same demerit counting as ozeki, meaning makekoshi = full demerit, 8-7 = half demerit. 2.5 demerits in three consecutive basho = intai. 3.5 demerits in six consecutive basho = intai. 4.0 in seven / 4.5 in eight / etc. consecutive basho = intai. Unlike ozeki, yokozuna demerits cannot be cleared simply by posting 9-6 (or better) records, only by pushing the bad scores sufficiently far into the past. Explanation: The standard rules for three and six basho windows have both been made slightly harder - effectively half a demerit tougher than before, which means 8-7's in between several makekoshi will now make the yokozuna's situation worse, not better, same as they do for ozeki. As before, exceptionally bad performances across three tournaments can still result in an immediate intai request, while slightly bad performances receive a longer grace period for improvement. The extended rule for seven or more tournaments exists so that players cannot continually flirt with disaster, by e.g. having a string of results like this: MK, 8-7, 9-6, MK, 9-6, 8-7, MK. That's 3.0 demerits for basho 1-6 and also 3.0 for basho 2-7 (and never 2.5 in three), so technically not bad enough if only the 3/6 rules existed, but clearly against the spirit of the rules. The thresholds for 6 or more tournaments effectively equate to "don't average worse than half a demerit per basho in the long run", which I think is a fair minimum expectation for yokozuna players. As I gave advance notice all the way back in January, these rules apply retroactively to the results since Hatsu 2024, in line with the ozeki versions. Even if a yokozuna fails to stay safe of those marks, I reserve the right to not request their intai in the following extenuating circumstances: There were exceptionally strong results in between the bad scores, or The same run of results would never have demoted an ozeki-ranked player along the way. These exceptions are possibilities, not guarantees, and will be considered on a case-by-case basis if anything like that ever actually crops up. I'll give a real-game example for situation 1 in a moment. The second scenario is one that was outright impossible under the old rules - 3 MK in three basho obviously demotes an ozeki after the second basho already, and a run of 4 MK in six basho always includes at least one case of back-to-back MK as well. With demerit limits of 3.5 in six basho etc. it's unlikely-but-possible to put up a run that never reaches the net 2.0 mark that would demote an ozeki. This isn't real sumo, and I do not wish to treat yokozuna players more harshly than they would be treated if they had never been promoted from ozeki to yokozuna in the first place. (Overly detailed math note: There are 75 different ways to collect exactly 3.5 demerits in six tournaments. 15 of them constitute intai based on the last three results alone; of the other 60 cases, 6 will create the aforementioned awkward situation. Example: MK, 9, MK, 9, 8, MK.) Lastly, a look at how previous situations would have unfolded, had the new rules been in place back then. Keep in mind that this is a "worst of the worst" curated sample of the results that Norizo, Susanoo and Pandaazuma have posted as our esteemed Seki-Toto yokozuna; the vast majority of the time they've been much better than this. (I'm including some of the good stuff for context anyway.) Early in his run as yokozuna, Norizo posted this: 2013.05 Ye 7-8 2013.07 Ye 11-4 2013.09 Ye 7-8 2013.11 Ye 11-3-1 J 2014.01 Ye 13-2 Y 2014.03 Ye 6-9 2014.05 Ye 7-8 2014.07 Ye 12-3 Y 2014.09 Ye 8-7 2014.11 Ye 6-9 2015.01 Ye 9-6 2015.03 Ye 10-5 2015.05 Ye 10-5 That would have been a full 4 demerit points for the 7-basho stretch 2013.05 - 2014.05, as well as 3.5 for the 5-basho stretch 2014.03 - 2014.11. However, probably I would have shelved the intai request both times as there was a very recent yusho victory each time. That exceptional treatment aside, in this stretch the following tournaments would have been make-or-break appearances for Norizo: 2014.05 (8 wins needed - failed), 2014.07 (9), 2014.09 (8), 2014.11 (8 - failed), 2015.01 (9), 2015.03 (9), 2015.05 (8). Under the old rules, only 2014.07 (possible third straight MK) and 2015.01 (possible fourth MK in six) were, both requiring 8 wins for safety as opposed to the 9 that the new rules would have needed. A bit later, still Norizo: 2016.01 Ye 10-5 2016.03 Ye 10-4-1 2016.05 Ye 8-7 2016.07 Ye 8-7 2016.09 Ye 11-4 2016.11 Ye 5-10 2017.01 Ye 8-7 2017.03 Ye 9-6 2017.05 Ye 8-7 2017.07 Ye 9-6 2017.09 Ye 8-7 2017.11 Ye 11-4 Entering 2017.03, the previous five tournaments (2016.05 - 2017.01) totalled 2.5 demerits, so a makekoshi would have pushed it to 3.5 in 6 (as well as 2.5 in 3, incidentally). If that had happened, the intai recommendation would definitely have been made. Under the old rules this obviously wasn't an intai watch situation at any point in time, since only one actual makekoshi was scored alongside the many 8-7's. In the almost seven years since, the only other time Norizo would have been at risk was in 2021.11, which he entered with previous scores of 7-8 and 8-7. Another makekoshi would have run afoul of the three-basho rule, but he scored 11-4. Susanoo's comparatively short yokozuna tenure looked like this in total: 2018.11 Yw 6-9 2019.01 Yw 6-9 2019.03 Yw 9-6 2019.05 Yw 11-4 J 2019.07 Ye 5-10 2019.09 Yw 11-4 2019.11 Ye 9-6 2020.01 Y1w 9-5-1 2020.03 Y2e 11-4 2020.07 Y1e 13-2 D 2020.09 Y1w 7-8 2020.11 Y2e 10-5 2021.01 Y1e 7-8 2021.03 Y2e 7-8 -> voluntary intai Obviously that produced an immediate threat of intai in the real 2019.03 as well, though with the difference that the old rules only required 8 wins there while the new ones would have asked for 9. (Susanoo collected his 9th win on senshuraku...) 2019.09 was a make-or-break basho as well, again with an old target of 8 and a new one of 9, and the new rules would have additionally required 8 wins for 2019.11. Susanoo decided to retire of his own volition after 2021.03. Had he continued, the next tournament would again have called for 8 (old) / 9 (new) wins. Pandaazuma, our most recent yokozuna before Kaito's ascent. Results from the start of his yokozuna tenure: 2020.01 Y2e 10-5 2020.03 Y1w 8-7 2020.07 Y2e 11-4 2020.09 Y2e 9-6 2020.11 Y1w 7-8 2021.01 Y2e 10-5 2021.03 Y1w 11-4 2021.05 Ye 10-5 2021.07 Ye 11-4 J 2021.09 Ye 8-7 2021.11 Ye 6-9 2022.01 Yw 6-9 2022.03 Yw 9-6 2022.05 Yw 6-9 2022.07 Yw 10-5 2022.09 Ye 12-3 D 2022.11 Ye 9-6 This stint would conceivably have been over sometime in 2022. The tournaments 2021.09 - 2022.01 totalled 2.5 demerits across those three basho. While a case for leniency might have been made based on the jun-yusho immediately before (it's less convincing than Norizo's two yusho though), the fact that 2021.09 - 2022.05 then also combined for 3.5 demerits in just 5 tournaments most likely would have meant thumbs down at that point. At-risk tournaments in this period of time, assuming no earlier end: 2022.01 (8 wins needed - failed), 2022.03 (8), 2022.05 (8 - failed), 2022.07 (9), 2022.09 (9), 2022.11 (8). Perhaps the best indication (sorry Simon!) that the new rules have a real potential to catch rather bad runs that the old ones did not. Under the old rules, 2022.03, 2022.07 and 2022.09 were on intai watch, with Pandaazuma narrowly avoiding the intai/restart scenario in the end. So there you have it. After all these words, I suspect I've made it look more complicated than it really is. As stated before: Just don't bomb for three consecutive tournaments, and don't average worse than half a bad record each basho. I do believe this whole arrangement puts both ozeki and yokozuna on a much fairer footing with the rest of the makuuchi-ranked players, who have suffered the wrath of the non-promoting (or even demoting) 8-7 for a long time. In the end, a bit more down/out volatility among the top two ranks will hopefully lead to more healthy sanyaku banzuke-making in general. Considering my rank movement guidelines are among the most dynamic ones out there, it always pains and annoys me when I'm unable to execute that in the joi-jin ranks. Admittedly it's always sad to see a yokozuna tenure come to an end, even if we're just playing games here, but I hope I've made a convincing case that Seki-Toto needs these adjustments. Last not least, I'll add that underperfoming yokozuna can always decide to follow Susanoo's example, of course.
  22. Asashosakari

    Seki-Toto/Quad/Oracle banzuke for Natsu 2024

    Every day is some other day's tomorrow... Seki-Toto: I'm very late in lauding his achievement, but it just can't go unmentioned: Promoted to the rank of ozeki just recently for the Hatsu 2024 tournament, Kaito proceeded to assert himself in most dominant fashion by winning both the Hatsu and Haru editions of the game with outright victories, as the only player to score 13 and 12 wins respectively. The decision to create the fourth yokozuna in Toto history was inevitable after that, of course. Belated congratulations! And in fact, it's the very first promotion after back-to-back yusho! Norizo was promoted for Kyushu 2012 after 12-3 D -> 12-3 J, Susanoo was promoted for Kyushu 2018 after 11-4 D -> 13-2 Y, and Pandaazuma was promoted for Hatsu 2020 after 12-3 Y -> 11-4 J. In other news: Susanoo performed best among the five continuing ozeki in Haru basho, finishing as one of three 11-4 jun-yusho players behind Kaito. He also had a jun-yusho in January, trailing Kaito by one win there as well. The rest of the ozeki squad had rather unimpressive results, which left three of them at risk of demotion for Natsu basho: Joaoiyama and ScreechingOwl after makekoshi, and Ganzohnesushi after back-to-back 8-7's (under the revised kadoban rules in effect since the start of the year). Unfortunately with 8 Y/O, the banzuke is effectively limited to the minimum 2 sekiwake and 2 komusubi under the Superbanzuke-mandated maximum of 12 sanyaku spots (for players to retain the appropriate rank bonus points), which I'm only willing to exceed under extreme circumstances. This banzuke came close to such an extreme as it deserved to have 14 players in sanyaku, but two harsh - though not unprecedented - decisions were taken to maintain the standard limit: Unkonoyama dropped from sekiwake to M1e despite 8 wins and Kotononami only moved from M3w to M1w despite 10. Sorry, guys. Additionally Metzinowaka had to stay at komusubi despite 9 wins, which usually would be a promotion to sekiwake. After M1 the banzuke worked out without any further issues as the rest of the top division had produced fairly balanced results in Haru basho.
  23. Asashosakari

    Sumostats - a stats website

    Sleek design and a few interesting features, but having poked around the site for the last few days, I'm having serious data integrity concerns going forward. Of the eight rikishi competing out of Nakamura-beya this basho, only two are actually assigned to the heya, the rest still show as Nishonoseki-beya members. (Due to a separate front end issue, it's currently impossible to filter the banzuke for Nakamura-beya to begin with.) Perhaps not so coincidentally, the two rikishi listed correctly for Nakamura-beya are those who changed their shikona for this banzuke. Similarly, three of the four rikishi who remained active after the closure of Michinoku-beya in March still show as members of that (non-existent) heya on the Natsu and Nagoya banzuke, only Kirishima was correctly moved. https://sumostats.com/heya appears intended to show active members of active heya, but all of the rikishi who have retired since January are still there, listed with their last ranking position whenever that happened to be. (Nakamura-beya is missing from the list of active heya here as well; it shows in the "Closed" section, with its two assigned active rikishi no less.) Match results up to Kyushu 2023 are shown bottom-to-top (first match of the day first), while Hatsu 2024 onward are listed top-to-bottom (musubi no ichiban first), as apparently that's how they're in the database due to being sourced differently. Rikishi who have changed their shikona are having their current one shown for all matches fought under the previous one; not sure if this one's a display or a data issue. The banzuke pages do show the correct shikona as appropriate for each tournament. If that's the result of just six months of maintaining the data independently from Sumo Reference, I'm less than hopeful that it won't snowball even further in the future.
  24. Asashosakari

    Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Nagoya 2024

    10 Hoshoryu 11 Kotozakura + Daiseizan - Wakaikari 12 Onosato + Asanowaka - Shiroma - Kaigo - Kiyonohana MK Hiradoumi - Kotoshoho + Wakatakakage + Onokatsu + Tochitaikai - Nabatame TB 11
  25. Asashosakari

    Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Nagoya 2024

    In the hope that everybody's ready to go I'm starting this a bit earlier than usual. After three editions with 12 or fewer ballot rikishi we're back up to a more respectable 15 this time. 1. Hoshoryu 15 [score?] 2. Kotozakura 14 [score?] 3. Daiseizan 9 4. Wakaikari 8* 5. Onosato 7* [score?] 6. Asanowaka 5 7. Shiroma 5** 8. Kaigo 5 9. Kiyonohana 5 10. Hiradoumi 4 [score?] 11. Kotoshoho 4 12. Wakatakakage 4 13. Onokatsu 4* 14. Tochitaikai 4 15. Nabatame 4 TB: [pick?] (* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut, ** marks rikishi with no makekoshi since return to the banzuke) The scoring and thus your game assignment: For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction. For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction. (For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.) First tie-breaker: From among those 15 guys up there and the further 4 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak (3 'veterans' + newcomer Aonishiki), please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 19. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records. Next 14 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hoshoryu. Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order). Final tie-breaker: earliest entry. Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker. Deadline: Shonichi 2pm JST. ----- Simplified entry template: 1. Hoshoryu W-L 2. Kotozakura W-L 3. Daiseizan KKMK 4. Wakaikari KKMK 5. Onosato W-L 6. Asanowaka KKMK 7. Shiroma KKMK 8. Kaigo KKMK 9. Kiyonohana KKMK 10. Hiradoumi W-L 11. Kotoshoho KKMK 12. Wakatakakage KKMK 13. Onokatsu KKMK 14. Tochitaikai KKMK 15. Nabatame KKMK TB xx ----- Good luck!