Asashosakari

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Everything posted by Asashosakari

  1. (Just backfilling Day 8 as the usual starting point; aside from some minor bits and pieces commentary will commence with the Day 9 updates.) Day 8 (results, text-only results) 7-1 K1e Takayasu 6-2 Se Terunofuji, M9e Chiyonokuni 5-3 (countless rikishi...well, 12 was the number) It's looking good for Terunofuji's ozeki challenge so far, while Takakeisho was probably hoping for a smoother ride out of his kadoban status. 2-1-5 Hakuho Y Kakuryu kyujo 4-4 Shodai O1 Asanoyama 5-3 5-3 Takakeisho O2 --- 6-2 Terunofuji S Takanosho 5-3 7-1 Takayasu K1 Mitakeumi 4-4 --- K2 Daieisho 3-5 1-7 Takarafuji M1 Onosho 2-6 5-3 Hokutofuji M2 Wakatakakage 4-4 5-3 Meisei M3 Shimanoumi 2-6 3-5 Kiribayama M4 Myogiryu 5-3 4-4 Endo M5 Okinoumi 2-6 5-3 Tamawashi M6 Ichinojo 5-3 3-5 Tochinoshin M7 Kagayaki 3-5 M8 Tobizaru 5-3 6-2 Chiyonokuni M9 Hoshoryu 4-4 __________________________________________________________________ A very closely contested basho in the maegashira ranks; other than kyujo Kotoshoho everybody ranked M6 and below managed to gain at least 3 wins by nakabi. (1) 3-5 Kotonowaka M8 M9 (2) 3-5 Midorifuji M10 Ryuden 3-5 (2) (1) 4-4 Chiyotairyu M11 Kotoshoho 0-3-5 (5) (2) 4-4 Akiseyama M12 Aoiyama 4-4 (2) (1) 5-3 Terutsuyoshi M13 Chiyoshoma 5-3 (1) (2) 5-3 Kotoeko M14 Tsurugisho 3-5 (4) (4) 3-5 Yutakayama M15 Hidenoumi 4-4 (3) (4) 4-4 Kaisei M16 Daiamami 4-4 (4) (6) 2-6 Tokushoryu J1 Akua 4-4 (4) (4) 5-3 Ishiura J2 Daishomaru 3-5 (6) (3) 6-2 Chiyomaru J3 Chiyonoo 5-3 (4) (4) 6-2 Enho J4 Sadanoumi 3-5 (7) (6) 4-4 Churanoumi J5 Kyokushuho 2-6 (~) (6) 5-3 Wakamotoharu J6 (5) 6-2 Ura J7 Azumaryu 5-3 (6) (~) 4-4 Kyokutaisei J8 (~) 4-4 Mitoryu J9 Hakuyozan 5-3 (7) (~) 5-3 Takagenji J10 __________________________________________________________________ J5 Kyokushuho 2-6 (1) J6 Chiyootori 2-6 (2) J7 (1) 4-4 Kyokutaisei J8 Shohozan 3-5 (2) (1) 4-4 Mitoryu J9 (1) 5-3 Takagenji J10 Yago 3-5 (3) (5) 1-7 Tohakuryu J11 Takakento 4-4 (2) (3) 4-4 Chiyonoumi J12 Nishikifuji 4-4 (3) (3) 4-4 Jokoryu J13 Nishikigi 3-5 (4) (4) 4-4 Bushozan J14 Ichiyamamoto 5-3 (3) kyujo Ikioi Ms1 Kotoyuki kyujo 2-2 Oho Ms2 Daishoho 3-1 4-1 Kotokuzan Ms3 Shohoryu 1-3 2-2 Tochimaru Ms4 Ryuko kyu-c kyu-c Hokutenkai Ms5 Kitaharima kyu-c 2-2 Roga Ms6 Murata 2-2 Ms7 Kaisho 3-1 ... Ms10 Nakazono 3-1 3-1 Shiba Ms11 Ms12 Hiradoumi 4-0 ... 4-0 Tokisakae Ms15 As I have no idea how they're going to take the record number of 5 absent top 5-ranked rikishi into account, I'm arbitrarily listing a bunch more names than usual for now, broadly assuming that 5 wins could be enough from around Ms7 and 6 wins from around Ms10 if the actual top 5 don't produce enough promotion candidates. __________________________________________________________________ Explanation of symbols used: numbers = wins needed until favourable outcome (getting promoted / not getting demoted) o = favourable outcome achieved x = favourable outcome definitely missed ~ = favourable outcome missed "by the numbers", but still achievable through banzuke luck
  2. Asashosakari

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2021

    Right, I should do that. Sorry, low on time last Sunday and low on motivation since... Day 15 (results, text-only results) 12-3 Se Terunofuji 11-4 M12w Aoiyama 10-5 O1w Asanoyama, O2e Takakeisho, K1e Takayasu, M2w Wakatakakage, M3e Meisei, M8w Tobizaru, M15w Hidenoumi The top 4 of the Day 14 yusho arasoi were paired up for senshuraku, and the basho concluded with a deserved winner and an unexpected runner-up. Ozeki Takakeisho did all he could, but it wasn't enough to avoid getting overpowered by Terunofuji who thus picked up his third makuuchi saiko yusho, the first rikishi in history to win that often below the rank of ozeki, and left no doubt about his (by now confirmed) return to ozeki. The sole jun-yusho spot went to maegashira Aoiyama who defeated Takayasu with both their respective 11th win and a kanto-sho special prize on the line. What a rough finish for the komusubi, losing four of his last five to go from runaway championship contender status to...nothing, really. Okay, a promotion to sekiwake. The 7-7 sanyaku quartet didn't manage the sweep after all. Just one loss, though, taken by the highest-profile rikishi Shodai, who was beaten by fellow ozeki Asanoyama and now has to enter the next tournament kadoban. The S/K trio of Takanosho, Mitakeumi and Daieisho prevailed over their opponents Tochinoshin, Ichinojo and Akiseyama (all hard-luck 7-8 in the end). All three will therefore retain their spots. That was particularly bad news for the other trio, down in the maegashira ranks. Hokutofuji, Wakatakakage (the latter beating the former on senshuraku) and Meisei all have eminently promotable records, but are likely to get stuck on the outside looking in for May. Meisei's victory over Tsurugisho at least resulted in a kanto-sho consolation prize for him, while a gino-sho went to Wakatakakage unconditionally. (For completeness, yusho winner Terunofuji received the basho's sole shukun-sho award.) Six records of 10-5 or better in the joi-jin in the end, something last seen two years ago. That includes a decent if unspectacular showing by ozeki duo Takakeisho and Asanoyama. Some fans might bemoan the absence of truly outstanding performances, but I'm kind of enjoying the current trend of a lot of different rikishi getting their time to shine in turn. Three lower maegashira completed the lineup of double-digit winners for Haru with (of course) Aoiyama, alongside brothers Tobizaru and Hidenoumi. The latter has posted his first ever top division kachikoshi at the seventh time of asking. (If anyone happens to be wondering, one doesn't need to go back to the Taka-Waka days to find joint double digits by a pair of brothers: Roho and Hakurozan did it once, in Kyushu 2005.) 2-1-12 Hakuho Y Kakuryu 0-0-10-i 7-8 Shodai O1 Asanoyama 10-5 10-5 Takakeisho O2 --- 12-3 Terunofuji S Takanosho 8-7 10-5 Takayasu K1 Mitakeumi 8-7 --- K2 Daieisho 8-7 M1 9-6 Hokutofuji M2 Wakatakakage 10-5 10-5 Meisei M3 ... M8 Tobizaru 10-5 8-5-2 Chiyonokuni M9 Hoshoryu 8-7 ... M12 Aoiyama 11-4 I'd be very pleasantly surprised if they keep sanyaku at 10 by promoting Wakatakakage, but the smart bet is of course that nobody's going up from the maegashira ranks. I doubt they'll deny Hokutofuji the mini-promotion to M1w, so it's presumably going to be Waka/Hoku/Meisei in the top three slots next time. As has already been written about aplenty in this here thread it's going to get very messy after that with wild overpromotions and severe underdemotions galore. __________________________________________________________________ The maegashira-juryo exchanges were all but definitive after Day 14 already, and Midorifuji's senshuraku win over Okinoumi cleared up the last piece of the puzzle. Juryo hopeful Enho did win as well, but he neither has a particularly strong claim for promotion with 9 wins at J4e nor is there any room to accommodate him now anyway. Kotoshoho lost to visiting already-makekoshi Tokushoryu and at 1-6-8 he should be dropping far enough that an immediate return to makuuchi after May won't be a foregone conclusion. The juryo race yusho... 11-4 J9w Hakuyozan 10-5 J7e Ura (10-4-1), J10e Takagenji, J13e Jokoryu, J14w Ichiyamamoto 9-6 J2e Ishiura, J3e Chiyomaru, J4e Enho, J7w Azumaryu ...concluded in the most straight-forward fashion with outright winner Hakuyozan. Ura had done his part to progress things towards a potential 10-5 playoff by knocking off co-leader Takagenji, but Chiyomaru wasn't able to follow suit against the eventual winner. Low-ranked erstwhile contenders Ichiyamamoto and Jokoryu proceeded to defeat their high-ranker opponents Ishiura and Akua anyway to finish in the joint runner-up spot. Not counting the messy post-yaocho May 2011 tournament, it's the first time in 13 years that nobody ranked J6 and better managed to reach 10+ wins. (o) 5-10 Midorifuji M10 M11 Kotoshoho 1-6-8 (x) ... (x)4-10-1 Yutakayama M15 M16 J1 Akua 8-7 (o) (o) 9-6 Ishiura J2 (o) 9-6 Chiyomaru J3 Chiyonoo 8-7 9-6 Enho J4 J5 J6 10-4-1 Ura J7 J8 J9 Hakuyozan 11-4 The next juryo banzuke looks pretty easy to compile down to J9, and then things are going off the rails with nobody having a record anywhere near good enough to deserve being placed at J10e and J10w, so a couple of rikishi will be getting very lucky there. __________________________________________________________________ Part of the reason for that is that basically everybody finished 7-8 at the bottom of the division, yielding a split of 12 KK against 16 MK for this basho. Six of the bottom eight rikishi having exactly seven wins is a runaway record for sure (query with 14 juryo ranks since 2004; with 13 ranks prior to that). All three juryo bubble rikishi ended up saving themselves as part of that outcome, with Chiyonoumi and Nishikifuji defeating makushita contenders Daishoho and Kotokuzan, as well as Nishikigi winning against Chiyootori (who finished joint-last in the division at 4-11). Yago's latest sekitori stint has ended on a marginally upbeat note as he ended his 11-day losing streak at the expense of deeply makekoshi makushitan Ryusei, shuffled up only due to maegashira Yutakayama's Day 14 kyujo. (And to my consternation they've actually left Ryusei's official final record as 1-6-1...) Both sekitori rookies Takakento and Bushozan are also among the glut of 7-8 finishers, the former with an unfortunate loss on senshuraku, the latter with a victory that has seemingly turned out crucial for him in the most unexpected fashion. Last basho's newcomer Tohakuryu rounded out the 7-8 sixpack with a win, his sixth in a row. J10 Yago 4-11 (x) J11 (o) 7-8 Chiyonoumi J12 Nishikifuji 7-8 (o) J13 Nishikigi 7-8 (o) (??) 7-8 Bushozan J14 Ms1 (o) 4-3 Oho Ms2 Daishoho 5-2 (o) (??) 4-3 Kotokuzan Ms3 4-3 Tochimaru Ms4 Ms5 4-3 Roga Ms6 Murata 4-3 Ms7 Kaisho 5-2 No, I still don't get it. Only Daishoho and Oho were announced as promotions to juryo this past Wednesday, which has to mean that Bushozan inexplicably survived as Kotokuzan has been snubbed. Here's hoping they didn't just create the most unlucky career-high Ms1 of the last several decades and he can still grab that promotion eventually, preferably right next time of course.
  3. Asashosakari

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2021

    Demotable by the numbers but retained a spot in juryo (best available would-be replacement/s). Since 2004: 2004.03: J14e 7-8 (Ms5e 4-3) 2004.05: J13e 6-9, J14w 7-8 (Ms7e 4-3) 2005.03: J10w 5-10, J12e 6-9, J14e 7-8 (Ms5w 4-3, Ms7e 6-1) 2005.05: J12e 5-10 (Ms6w 5-2) 2005.11: J11w 5-10 (Ms5e 4-3, Ms7w 6-1) 2006.11: J8w 4-11 (Ms4e 4-3) 2007.05: J14e 7-8 (Ms4w 5-2) ! 2010.03: J8e 4-11 (Ms3e 4-3) ! 2010.09: J14e 7-8 (Ms4w 4-3) 2010.07: J10e 5-7-3 (Ms6w 4-3) 2011.01: J14e 7-8 (Ms5w 4-3) 2011.11: J8e 4-11 (Ms5e 4-3, Ms6e 5-2) 2012.03: J10w 5-10, J12e 6-9 (Ms5w 4-3, Ms6w 5-2) 2012.07: J12w 6-9 (Ms4w 4-3) 2012.11: J11w 5-10 (Ms6e 4-3) 2013.09: J12e 6-9 (Ms6w 5-2) 2013.11: J12e 6-9, J14e 7-8 (Ms6e 4-3) 2014.11: J12w 6-9 (Ms6e 4-3) 2015.09: J8e 4-11 (Ms4w 4-3) 2016.07: J8e 4-11, J12w 6-9 (Ms4e 4-3) 2018.05: J10w 5-10 (Ms5e 4-3, Ms6e 5-2, Ms7e 6-1) 2019.09: J13e 6-9 (Ms6e 5-2) 2020.01: J13e 6-9 (Ms6w 4-3) The only comparable cases among all those were 2007.05 and 2010.03. Meanwhile, the following borderline demotions took place from the first by-the-numbers spot: 2004.11: J14e 7-8 (Ms2w 4-3, Ms5e 6-1) 2007.05: J12e 6-9 (Ms2e 4-3) 2008.01: J12e 6-9, J14e 7-8 (Ms2e 4-3, Ms4e 5-2) 2008.03: J12e 6-9 (Ms3e 5-2) 2008.05: J10e 5-10 (Ms2w 5-2) 2008.09: J14e 7-8 (Ms4w 4-3) ! 2009.05: J14e 7-8 (Ms2e 4-3) 2010.03: J14e 7-8 (Ms1w 4-3) 2010.05: J14e 7-8 (Ms5e 5-2) ! 2010.11: J8e 4-11 (Ms5w 5-2) ! 2012.07: J6e 3-6-6 (Ms4e 4-3) ! 2013.07: J10e 5-10 (Ms3w 4-3) ! 2014.05: J12e 6-9 (Ms3e 4-3) ! 2015.01: J12e 6-9 (Ms4e 4-3) ! 2015.03: J10e 5-10 (Ms3e 5-2) 2015.11: J8e 4-11 (Ms4e 4-3) ! 2017.01: J10e 5-10 (Ms3e 5-2) 2018.09: J12e 6-9 (Ms4w 5-2) A much bigger list of guys placed the same or worse than Kotokuzan who got promoted anyway. Edit: From the second by-the-numbers spot (excluding J14w 7-8, and basho where somebody else also got demoted from a first spot, i.e. already represented in the previous list): 2004.09: J12w 6-9 (Ms3e 5-2) 2005.07: J6w 3-12, J10w 5-10 (Ms4w 4-3, Ms6w 5-2) !! 2005.09: J10w 5-10 (Ms5e 5-2) 2006.05: J12w 6-9 (Ms1w 4-3) 2008.07: J10w 5-10 (Ms3w 4-3) ! 2009.09: J10w 5-10, J12w 6-9 (Ms1e 4-3) 2010.09: J10w 5-10 (Ms3w 4-3) ! 2013.03: J10w 5-10 (Ms5w 5-2) ! 2014.07: J10w 5-10 (Ms3e 4-3) 2015.05: J12w 6-9 (Ms3e 6-1) 2019.03: J10w 5-10 (Ms3w 6-1) 2019.07: J10w 5-10 (Ms4w 4-3) ! 2020.09: J12w 6-9 (Ms5w 6-1)
  4. Asashosakari

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2021

    All of which is completely irrelevant without looking at the actual context of each case. Not exchanging Bushozan and Kotokuzan here is extremely unusual.
  5. Asashosakari

    Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Haru 2021

    The new ballot for Natsu 2021: 1. Terunofuji 12 Yoshii 10* 2. Murata 9 3. Ura 8 4. Tosamidori 8 Takakento 6 5. Takanosho 6 Ichinojo 5 6. Ichiyamamoto 6 7. Tochimaru 6 Anzai 5 8. Shinohara 6* Hayatefuji 5* Kirameki 5* 9. Takayasu 5 10. Meisei 5 Midorifuji 4 Tohakuryu 4 Bushozan 4 11. Kotokuzan 5 12. Ofukasawa 5* 13. Shishi 5* 14. Fujikawa 5 15. Kawabuchi 5 16. Hagiwara 5* --- 17. Chiyonokuni 4 Chiyonokuni joins us with a Covid-interrupted 4-KK streak as the only sekitori addition for May. Scores for banzuke purposes: ryafuji 15 (14+Top) chishafuwaku 15 (14+Top) Mmikasazuma 14 (13+TB) Asashosakari 12 Hakuryuho 12 Athenayama 11 WAKATAKE 11 Profomisakari 11 (10+TB) Rocks 9 (8+TB) Holleshoryu 8 Jejima 8 Total: 126 / 11 = 11.45 ---> -4 wins Pretty obvious KK/MK split this time. ryafuji was joint last in January, BTW. Nice turnaround! The new banzuke for Natsu 2021: Asashosakari (Ye 8-7) Y --- chishafuwaku (O1w 11-4 D) O1 Mmikasazuma (O1e 10-5) --- O2 Athenayama (O2w 7-8) ryafuji (M4e 11-4 Y) S Kashunowaka (Sw kosho) Hakuryuho (M2e 8-7) K WAKATAKE (Se 7-8) Ryoshishokunin (M1e kosho) M1 Sakura (M1w kosho) Profomisakari (Ke 7-8) M2 Holleshoryu (Kw 4-11) Rocks (M3w 5-10) M3 Jejima (M2w 4-11) Achiyama (M3e 0-0-15) M4 --- Mmikasazuma was on an extended tsuna run after yusho in November and kosho in January - while third place is an excellent result, considering the small number of players in this game I need to be firm and require something more for a promotion. The run will be carried over to the next tournament of course, with chishafuwaku now also being observed again after his doten performance. Athenayama will be entering May kadoban.
  6. Asashosakari

    Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Haru 2021

    Ugh, and now that we know this basho's Covid effects, here's finally the LKS lineup for Haru: 1. Terunofuji 11 [score?] 2. Yoshii 10* 3. Murata 8 4. Ura 7 5. Tosamidori 7 6. Takakento 6 7. Takanosho 5 [score?] 8. Ichinojo 5 9. Ichiyamamoto 5 10. Tochimaru 5 11. Anzai 5 12. Shinohara 5* 13. Hayatefuji 5* 14. Kirameki 5* 15. Takayasu 4 [score?] 16. Meisei 4 17. Midorifuji 4 18. Tohakuryu 4 19. Bushozan 4 TB: [pick?] (* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut) The scoring and thus your game assignment: For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction. For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction. (For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.) First tie-breaker: From among those 19 guys up there and the further 12(**) rikishi (6 of 8 'veterans' + Kotokuzan and 5 newcomers) who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 31. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records. (** From the list of eligibles, Hokutenkai is excluded from competition due to Covid-19 concerns at his stable, while Nakaishi is a regular kyujo.) Next 18 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Terunofuji. Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order). Final tie-breaker: earliest entry. Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker. Deadline: Shonichi noon JST. ----- Simplified entry template: 1. Terunofuji W-L 2. Yoshii KKMK 3. Murata KKMK 4. Ura KKMK 5. Tosamidori KKMK 6. Takakento KKMK 7. Takanosho W-L 8. Ichinojo KKMK 9. Ichiyamamoto KKMK 10. Tochimaru KKMK 11. Anzai KKMK 12. Shinohara KKMK 13. Hayatefuji KKMK 14. Kirameki KKMK 15. Takayasu W-L 16. Meisei KKMK 17. Midorifuji KKMK 18. Tohakuryu KKMK 19. Bushozan KKMK TB xx ----- Good luck!
  7. Asashosakari

    March basho 2021

    There is of course also the tabloids' long-standing contention that Onokuni was the only mid-80s high ranker who was completely gachinko, which one may or may not want to incorporate into assessing his results relative to his peers.
  8. Ugh, apologies for this being - at least - a day late...I had a major absence of mind (aka brainfart). Without further ado... Seki-Toto (play): A credible bounceback basho for yokozuna duo Norizo (11-4) and Pandaazuma (10-5), who had been just 8-7 and 7-8 respectively in November. In turn, Susanoo found himself makekoshi at 7-8, the second time in three tournaments. Let's hope it doesn't become a more regular occurrence. None of the remaining 9 sanyaku-ranked players managed to finish better than 8-7 in January. That "top" score was achieved by two ozeki, Unkonoyama and ScreechingOwl, as well as perennial sekiwake Konosato (who is again miles away from challenging for promotion now, unfortunately). Our newest ozeki Athenayama ended up on 7 wins and will enter his third appearance at the rank as kadoban ozeki. Outside of Konosato all lower sanyaku players went makekoshi and consequently find themselves demoted out of the titled ranks for the new banzuke. The sanyaku MK unfortunately included Andoreasu, demoted from ozeki after November, so no immediate return to the second-highest rank for him. Far from allowing a cut back on the size of sanyaku, however, the Hatsu results also provided no less than 7 contenders vying for promotion, of which it was only possible to accommodate five. After that small crunch it was smooth sailing for the banzuke-making, in large part because the makuuchi division players didn't put up their usual win-heavy results this time around, posting a combined line of just 305-305-5. Norizo (Y1w 11-4) Y1 Pandaazuma (Y2e 10-5) Susanoo (Y1e 7-8) Y2 - Unkonoyama (O1e 8-7) O1 ScreechingOwl (O1w 8-7) - O2 Athenayama (O2w 7-8) Konosato (Se 8-7) S Chijanofuji (M3w 11-4) Kotononami (M3e 10-5) K1 Kitakachiyama (M4e 10-5) Golynohana (M6w 11-4) K2 Toonoryu (M4w 10-5) Gaanaa (M10e 12-3 D) M1 Ganzohnesushi (M5w 10-5) Taka (M2e 8-7) M2 Chankoyama (K1e 7-8) Gernobono (K1w 7-8) M3 Herritarooo (K2e 7-8) DeRosa (K2w 7-7-1) M4 Andoreasu (Sw 6-9) Kuroimori (M7w 9-5-1) M5 Ketsukai (M6e 8-7) Oortael (M8e 8-6-1) M6 Kishikaisei (M2w 6-9) Asashosakari (M5e 7-8) M7 Flohru (M1e 5-10) Takanorappa (M7e 7-7-1) M8 Metzinowaka (M1w 4-11) Asapedroryu (J6w 12-3 D) M9 Fujisan (M13w 8-7) Andonishiki (M14e 8-7) M10 Bill (J8w 12-3 Y) Achiyama (M10w 7-7-1) M11 Chishafuwaku (M11e 7-8) Kyoju (M15w 8-7) M12 Gawasukotto (M11w 7-8) Kaito (J1e 8-7) M13 Oskahanada (J5w 10-5) Onakaderu (J2e 8-7) M14 Sakura (J2w 8-7) Kaiowaka (M8w 4-11) M15 Umigame (J5e 9-6) Benihana (M15e 7-8) J1 Jakusotsu (M9w 4-11) Andrasoyamawaka (M13e 5-10) J2 Joaoiyama (J1w 7-8) Kobashi (J3e kosho) J3 Damimonay (M12e 4-11) GONZABUROW (J9e 9-6) J4 Terarno (J9w 9-6) Getayukata (J12e 10-5) J5 Choshu-yuki (M14w 4-11) Hana-ichi (M12w 3-12) J6 Kashunowaka (J12w 9-6) Ahokaina (Ms4w 11-3-1) J7 Mmikasazuma (J7w kosho) WAKATAKE (Ms3w 10-5) J8 Oshirokita (J13e 8-7) Frinkanohana (J3w 5-10) J9 Nantonoyama (J8e 7-7-1) Chelseayama (J6e 6-9) J10 Sutarokku (J4e 5-10) Anjoboshi (J4w 5-9-1) J11 Kintamayama (J7e 6-8-1) Holleshoryu (J10w kosho) J12 Atenzan (J11w kosho) Toyama (Ms5e 9-6) J13 Mariohana (NR 11-4) Ulishimaru (J13w 7-8) J14 Unagiyutaka2 (J14e 7-6-2) Jejima (Ms8w 9-6) Ms1 Balon (J11e 5-9-1) Kajiyanosho (Ms2e 7-8) Ms2 Gansekiiwa (Ms2w 7-8) Chudorj (Ms1e 6-9) Ms3 Oyama (Ms1w 6-9) Akishiki (NR 8-7) Ms4 Sherlockiama (J10e 3-1-11) Rowitoro (J14w 4-10-1) Ms5 Profomisakari (Ms4e 5-10) Tenshinhan (Ms6w 6-8-1) Ms6 Neko (Ms9e 6-9) Saruyama (Ms6e 3-10-2) Ms7 Dan Koloff (Ms7w kosho) Hidenotora (NR 5-10) Ms8 Domichi (Ms8e 3-12) Wolfgangho (Ms5w 1-1-13) Ms9 Hakuryuho (Ms9w kosho) Effinojo (Ms7e 0-3-12) Ms10 Kotonoshu (NR 1-0-14) Takayumi (Ms10w 0-0-15) Ms11 -
  9. Asashosakari

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2021

    The most recent case was a whole bunch of 7-8 maegashira keeping their ranks after Hatsu 2020 with sanyaku dropping from 8 to 7. (That was in fact also the most recent basho that saw a sanyaku reduction altogether, so it's as current as it could possibly be.)
  10. Asashosakari

    Kitanofuji stuff

    The "no" in "no way" stands for "next ozeki".
  11. Asashosakari

    Seki-Toto/Quad/Oracle banzuke for Haru 2021

    Hello Susanoo, while I am saddened to see this, I want to thank you for your honourable decision. You served Seki-Toto well as yokozuna for the last three years! I will move you to the bottom of the banzuke for the next basho as you requested. It's okay to keep the same shikona if you want.
  12. Asashosakari

    Trivia bits

    Hey now, there's an off-hand comment I made back in 2014 about a potential bit of trivia for which I'm still waiting for the guy in question to finish his career so it becomes true.
  13. Asashosakari

    Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Haru 2021

    Day 15 Three LKS sekitori entered the day with 7-7 records: Takakento, Ichinojo and Takanosho, with the first two still having points up for grabs and Takanosho relevant for the tie-breaker. And chishafuwaku required makekoshi for all three - Takakento and Ichinojo in order to close the points gap to ryafuji, Takanosho so that the TB would remain at his predicted value of 15. Alas, while the points both came in, Takanosho's MK did not. And so both contenders ended up missing the TB and the yusho decision went to a bracket playoff, which was won by ryafuji on slot #2, Yoshii's MK. Congrats on not quite pulling a Takayasu and actually bringing your once commanding lead home for the title. This is ryafuji's second LKS yusho after Hatsu 2015, while chishafuwaku finishes doten runner-up for the 5th time (that's now sole second place all-time behind Asashosakari's 6). Just four entrants predicted Takakento's MK and even just one had Ichinojo down for his, so senshuraku didn't bring in all that many additional points. A trio of players ended up benefitting from their TB entries, hitting the mark with their predictions of 16. The final standings for Haru 2021: Day 15: 19/19 Decisions, TB 16 Pos Player Pts TB 1 ryafuji 14 20 2 chishafuwaku 14 15 3 Mmikasazuma 13 16 4 Asashosakari 12 15 4 Hakuryuho 12 14 6 Athenayama 11 19 6 WAKATAKE 11 18 8 Profomisakari 10 16 9 Rocks 8 16 10 Holleshoryu 8 17 10 Jejima 8 21 I'll be rolling up the usual end-of-basho information tomorrow.
  14. Asashosakari

    Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Haru 2021

    Day 14 Four of the remaining six decisions came in on the penultimate day, led by Terunoji achieving his 11th win to match our target record for him. A positive result was also booked by Murata who achieved his ninth straight KK, the last five of them all 4-3's. On the other hand we're saying goodbye to shin-sekitori Bushozan and makushita youngster Hayatefuji who both landed in makekoshi territory at 6-8 and 3-4 respectively. These were all small majority predictions (two 7:4, two 6:5), so a sizable amount of points was scored. No zeros, but all scores from 1 to 4 points occurred multiple times causing significant jumbling of the standings. Two final additions to the next ballot were also secured by sandanme pair Kawabuchi and Hagiwara. The latter was in fact forced to leave the basho after four rounds (with a score of 3-1) and only returned on Day 14 to clinch a 4-1-2 kachikoshi. --------------------------- Those two off-ballot sandanme results also eliminated Hakuryuho from our yusho race already as they pushed the TB score to a minimum of 14, equal to his prediction. One of the two results he still needed to go in his favour (and against leader ryafuji) was a KK prediction, so it was now impossible for Hakuryuho to tie for the top score and still hit the correct TB as required for his yusho hopes. The chronologically next two results - MK for Hayatefuji and KK for Murata - both went in the remaining pursuers' favour with Asashosakari and chishafuwaku picking up two points and ryafuji neither. Bushozan's MK was predicted by all three and made no difference, but Terunofuji's target clincher played a role again - Asashosakari was now eliminated from contention, having bet against the ozeki-to-be. The standings at the conclusion of Day 14: Day 14: 17/19 Decisions, TB 15-18 Pos Player Pts TB 1 ryafuji 14 20 2 Hakuryuho 12 14 3 Asashosakari 12 15 4 Mmikasazuma 12 16 5 chishafuwaku 12 15 6 Athenayama 11 19 7 Profomisakari 10 16 8 WAKATAKE 10 18 9 Holleshoryu 8 17 10 Jejima 8 21 11 Rocks 7 16
  15. Asashosakari

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2021

    Specifically, that was after they had given up on the idea of using different banzuke for each city and had re-merged the rankings, but in turn each new banzuke was now used for two tournaments (one Tokyo, one elsewhere).
  16. Asashosakari

    Trivia bits

    It's got nothing to do with Hanakaze (or Ichinoya) though; there's always a youngest and an oldest rikishi on the banzuke. The difficult part is for these two specific rikishi to be ranked sufficiently close to each other. Edit: Okay, "nothing to do" overstates the case. Of course it helps when the oldest guy is ranked way down the banzuke.
  17. Asashosakari

    Is it possible to switch jobs in ozumo?

    There have been a few cases of switches being made between toshiyori, wakaimonogashira and sewanin positions. I suspect somebody else already has a list of that (I don't), so I'll save myself the research time at the moment.
  18. Asashosakari

    March basho 2021

    Y/D/J: two Y/J/D: one D/Y/J: eight D/J/Y: two J/Y/D: three J/D/Y: two (All those results include some irrelevant extra hits because it's impossible to query directly for jun-yusho that are not doten.) There are a few cases of overlapping streaks in there. J/Y/D/Y/J for Wajima starting Hatsu 1976, J/Y/D/J for Takanohana starting Haru 1993, and J/D/Y/J for Hakuho starting Hatsu 2006.
  19. Asashosakari

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2021

    Two 8-7's stayed in the same position when they cut three sanyaku spots after Kyushu 2019. It would obviously be more harsh to do that with a 9-6 when only one slot disappears, but there's certainly no "must promote" rule. (1990s upper juryo has some more examples of KK rikishi forced to stay at the same rank, even including J1e.)
  20. Asashosakari

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2021

    It's not like that 1930 case is even a thing at all.
  21. Asashosakari

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2021

    The point is that, if they stick to how they normally do it, his official record would actually be 1-6, not 1-6-1, and so he wouldn't merely be treated "as if" he's 1-6. That aside, the half-credit thing for a win wasn't always how they did it, either; it used to count as a full win.
  22. Asashosakari

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2021

    Well yes, obviously I meant to indicate that the specific loss in the additional match would be treated differently from the usual.
  23. Asashosakari

    March basho 2021

    Kyushu 1973. Wajima won by score of 12-2-1. But he missed the final two days after securing his Yusho on Day 13... Chiyonofuji actually in Haru 1989.
  24. Asashosakari

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2021

    Day 14 (results, text-only results) 11-3 Se Terunofuji 10-4 O2e Takakeisho, K1e Takayasu, M12w Aoiyama 9-5 O1w Asanoyama, M2e Hokutofuji, M2w Wakatakakage, M3e Meisei, M8w Tobizaru, M14w Tsurugisho, M15w Hidenoumi A second gut-wrenching loss at the tawara has served to drop Takayasu from the lead after eight days atop the arasoi. Even more in control of the match than he was against Wakatakakage the day before, Takayasu inexplicably decided to try to rush to a finish against Tobizaru and promptly got flung down by the closest of margins again. Your new sole leader is Terunofuji who virtually assured himself of a return to ozeki with another strong showing against a rank incumbent for his 11th win. It was arguably Asanoyama's best attempt against him in their fifth meeting, but no cigar once again. Asanoyama fell out of the race for good with that loss, but another ozeki is flying the flag for the top rankers: Takakeisho clearly came to play again, which was bad news for Shodai who didn't stand a chance against his ozeki colleague. Takakeisho is 10-4 and can still win the yusho under his own power. Shodai, now 7-7, is under pressure of his own tomorrow as he works to avoid going kadoban at the last minute. On that note, now we really are in super-rare territory with 4 sanyaku rikishi entering the final day with 7-7 records (tied for most ever with 3 other basho), three of them among the S/K (8th time ever including one case with four). Daieisho joined Shodai in dropping to 7-7 against Kiribayama, while Takanosho and Mitakeumi got there the other way with victories - both made short work of their opponents Ichinojo and Myogiryu (now unfortunately MK after his 5-0 start). The four sanyaku 7-7's in Hatsu 2013 all proceeded to finish kachikoshi; we'll see how many get there tomorrow. Takanosho is at least certain to remain in the lower titled ranks after today's shiroboshi. He'll either stay at sekiwake and be joined there by Takayasu, or his spot at the third-highest rank will be up for grabs for the two 7-7 komusubi as well as the basho's three high-performing maegashira. That trio is now 9-5 all around after Wakatakakage's winning streak was snapped at 7 days by Aoiyama, while Hokutofuji and Meisei were successful against Ryuden and Tamawashi. 2-1-11 Hakuho Y Kakuryu 0-0-10-i 7-7 Shodai O1 Asanoyama 9-5 10-4 Takakeisho O2 --- 11-3 Terunofuji S Takanosho 7-7 10-4 Takayasu K1 Mitakeumi 7-7 --- K2 Daieisho 7-7 M1 9-5 Hokutofuji M2 Wakatakakage 9-5 9-5 Meisei M3 ... M12 Aoiyama 10-4 Today's win has not only made Aoiyama the thus far sole maegashira to be in double-digit win territory, he's also - somewhat - still in the running for the yusho. He and Takayasu will battle things out for an 11th win, which will send the victor into a three-way playoff for the yusho if Takakeisho can reel in leader Terunofuji. These two met with the roles reversed just four months ago, albeit at two wins higher than they stand this time around. Should Terunofuji prevail, he will become the first rikishi in history to win 3 makuuchi yusho while being ranked below ozeki. The actual last regulation bout of the tournament will be Asanoyama-Shodai, which is likely to see the audience deflated a bit no matter what happens in the yusho-relevant match just before. In any case, that's Shodai's path to kachikoshi. For the lower sanyaku it entails defeating Tochinoshin (Takanosho), Ichinojo (Mitakeumi) and Akiseyama (Daieisho). All three maegashira are also 7-7 for maximum heartbreak potential. Incidentally, Akiseyama is the lowest-ranked 7-7 maegashira who has ever had to go for his senshuraku kachikoshi against a sanyaku opponent. Should space in sanyaku open up - up to two spots are possible - it'll be up to the maegashira trio to claim them. The schedule is set up nicely to decide at least the first claim, as the M2's Hokutofuji and Wakatakakage are meeting head-to-head. The loser of that match will either cede claim #2 to Meisei, or luck into retaining it should Meisei be defeated by his aite Tsurugisho (who's also 9-5). I suppose it's in the realm of possibility that at least the winner of the M2 clash will be promoted no matter what, even into an additional komusubi slot, but it's not something to bet on with the current banzuke committee. __________________________________________________________________ The race for the last handful of maegashira slots progressed towards a largely satisfying conclusion today, at least numbers-wise. Ishiura and Akua were victorious in juryo and have now clinched promotable records, joining previously qualified Chiyomaru, which means just enough candidates to take up the spots already vacated by Kotoshoho, Yutakayama - withdrawn altogether due to his injured arm today - and retired yokozuna Kakuryu. The last contender standing, Enho, lost for the third day in a row and can only go up with luck now. That was good news for Kokonoe duo Chiyoshoma and Chiyotairyu who definitely no longer had to fear the spectre of an overdemotion - Chiyoshoma made doubly sure of it anyway by defeating Kotoshoho, while Chiyotairyu picked up straight loss #4 against Kaisei. The Brazilian bottom-ranker collected his late kachikoshi with that, as did the other M16 Daiamami against Hoshoryu. It's Kaisei's first makuuchi KK in exactly a year, although that of course means just four basho in this case since May got cancelled and January saw his heya sidelined due to Covid-19. Daiamami was last KK five top division appearances ago, but in his case that means Haru 2018. We're not quite done here yet as even all-out attack wasn't enough to get Midorifuji his last needed win against Tsurugisho, so he will enter senshuraku potentially in line for demotion with another loss. (1) 4-10 Midorifuji M10 (o) 5-9 Chiyotairyu M11 Kotoshoho 1-5-8 (x) M12 M13 Chiyoshoma 7-7 (o) M14 (x) 4-10 Yutakayama M15 (o) 8-6 Kaisei M16 Daiamami 8-6 (o) J1 Akua 8-6 (o) (o) 9-5 Ishiura J2 (o) 9-5 Chiyomaru J3 Chiyonoo 7-7 (~) (~) 8-6 Enho J4 J5 J6 (~) 9-4-1 Ura J7 Azumaryu 8-6 (x) J8 J9 Hakuyozan 10-4 (~) I'm not sure which of the four (~) rikishi in juryo are actually in a strong enough position to force down a 4-11 Midorifuji; Enho is placed best, but given the current committee's rather extreme tendency to prioritize make over kachi, perhaps even a 9-6 by him won't do it, let alone any result by the other three. Should all four juryo candidates lose, then Midorifuji will certainly stay. Of course, he can make all that irrelevant by defeating Okinoumi (M5w 3-11). __________________________________________________________________ Three low juryo rikishi entered Day 14 with their ranks on the line, and only two got the needed win to ensure they have a chance to become safe for good on senshuraku: Nishikifuji and Nishikigi improved their records to 6-8 at the expense of underperforming mid-rankers Chiyootori and Churanoumi. Sekitori rookie Bushozan wasn't able to come through and fell to 6-8 and makekoshi himself against Chiyonoo. Given his position at the bottom of the division he is now demotable, although some probability remains that he could stick around with 7 wins. Also 6-8 with a loss is Chiyonoumi who was defeated by yusho-seeking Hakuyozan, and he too will now have to enter the final day with his rank not yet secured. And yet another 6-8 but one of the winning variety was collected by Tohakuryu - he succeeded against Kyokushuho for his fifth straight win. His demotion had looked done and dusted at 1-8 prior to that streak, but he is actually safe now, incredibly enough. Lastly, down in makushita the last claimant for a possible super-lucky promotion came through; Murata finishes the basho 4-3 having won his KK/MK decider against Tamashoho. J10 Yago 3-11 (x) (o) 6-8 Tohakuryu J11 (1) 6-8 Chiyonoumi J12 Nishikifuji 6-8 (1) J13 Nishikigi 6-8 (1) (~) 6-8 Bushozan J14 Ms1 (o) 4-3 Oho Ms2 Daishoho 5-1 (o) (o) 4-2 Kotokuzan Ms3 4-3 Tochimaru Ms4 Ms5 4-3 Roga Ms6 Murata 4-3 Ms7 Kaisho 5-2 As things stand we know that three slots are available via Kakuryu, Yago and either Bushozan or somebody else that finishes worse than him, so Oho and debutant-to-be Kotokuzan have now joined Daishoho as certain promotees. I'm guessing that Tochimaru will also go up if any fourth slot becomes available, even if it's the most borderline demotion possibility (i.e. Chiyonoumi). The case for the trio ranked outside the top 5 is rather more iffy, and I wouldn't be surprised if Chiyonoumi and Nishikifuji are actually ahead of them and would get to stay even with a 6-9 finish, which would mean that Roga et al. are already out of the running and we'll get at most four exchanges. So, quite possibly the race is now just about who has to make room for promotions #3 and potentially #4. That could still be any combination of Bushozan and the three bubble rikishi, and their fates will be decided by the following matchups: Nishikifuji - Kotokuzan, Chiyonoumi - Daishoho, Nishikigi - Chiyootori (J6w 4-10), and Bushozan - Kyokushuho (J5w 6-8). In addition to Kotokuzan and Daishoho a third makushita visitor was made necessary due to Yutakayama's Day 14 withdrawal, with Ryusei (Ms7e 1-5-1) now facing Yago and his 11-day losing streak. It's the first time since Kyushu 1998 that this additional bout is going to a makushita rikishi who has previously missed a round of the regular 7-bout schedule, which I think means that they will just treat this as a regular appearance for Ryusei and he'll be held responsible for a loss rankings-wise, unlike "normal" 8th-match rikishi, but will also get full credit for a win (as opposed to the usual one-half thing that they do). __________________________________________________________________ Juryo yusho race through Day 14: 10-4 J9w Hakuyozan, J10e Takagenji 9-5 J2e Ishiura, J3e Chiyomaru, J7e Ura (9-4-1), J13e Jokoryu, J14w Ichiyamamoto 8-6 J1w Akua, J4e Enho, J7w Azumaryu Two of the three co-leaders were paired up and the better end of it was had by Takagenji for his fifth straight winning day, sending Chiyomaru out of the lead group. Hakuyozan went up against now-makekoshi Chiyonoumi and also secured his 10th shiroboshi, so we're entering the final day with two rikishi atop the standings. However, Hakuyozan and Takagenji already met on Day 1 (Hakuyozan won), so they cannot be matched up for a straight yusho decider. That of course means that 9-5 is still a viable score for now. 4 members of yesterday's 8-5 sixpack were also paired for action, and these matches had Ishiura and Jokoryu prevailing over Azumaryu and Enho. The remaining two, Ura and Ichiyamamoto, also managed to retain spots in the race by defeating Takakento and Kyokutaisei, so we have ended up with the maximum possible number of 7 yusho contenders. At most 6 of them can enter a potential playoff, courtesy of these senshuraku pairings: J7e Ura (9-4-1) - J10e Takagenji (10-4) J3e Chiyomaru (9-5) - J9w Hakuyozan (10-4) J2e Ishiura (9-5) - J14w Ichiyamamoto (9-5) J13e Jokoryu (9-5) - J1w Akua (8-6) Chiyomaru is actually Hakuyozan's only possible opponent among the five pursuers, while Takagenji still had both Ura and Ishiura available. I'm a bit surprised that they didn't match Takagenji with the higher-ranked option, Ishiura.
  25. Asashosakari

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2021

    Belated... Lower division yusho races (Day 13 results): 6-1 Ms15e Tokisakae (Tokitsukaze) 7-0 Ms56w Abi (Shikoroyama) 7-0 Sd45w Komanokuni (Shibatayama) 6-1 Sd68w Osuzuki (Naruto) 6-1 Sd100Td Nishikawa (Sakaigawa) 7-0 Jd48w Atamifuji (Isegahama) 6-1 Jd79w Chiyoyamato (Kokonoe) 7-0 Jk21w Murayama (Naruto) One of the more disappointing Day 13's in recent memory. Uncompetitive matches with the jonokuchi yusho on the line are a pretty common sight, so Murayama easily disposing of his 5-1 opponent didn't come unexpected, but this time it set the tone for what followed: an even more easy win for Atamifuji in jonidan, a first sandanme match that was done in a second and got turned over on a hansoku call to boot, a sloppy-looking (but at least marginally engaging) sandanme yusho decider, and an outright disappointing showing by Tokisakae in makushita to cap things off. If nothing else, the makushita result just might lead to an immediate rematch next basho as Tokisakae and Abi should both be ranked fairly close to each other. Due to the three-rikishi Covid blockage at Ms4/5 it's hard to say if they'll actually get into the top 5 ranks, however; for a 7-0 record from Abi's location it wouldn't be very unusual to end up lower, but a 6-1 achieved by a top 15-ranked rikishi hasn't failed to earn a spot in the short promotion zone for 27 years. Sandanme winner Komanokuni should be landing close to his former career-best position of Sd23, but I suspect that he'll be back in sandanme before too long. Defeated challengers Osuzuki and Nishikawa will remain in the division for now, and it wouldn't be too surprising if either or both end up with a bit of another zensho run in May, though perhaps not all the way to 6-0 again. I'm probably more interested in what sandanme has in store for Atamifuji, though. The middle of the division is calling for him, and in fact he should end up fairly close to Nishikawa (maybe 10 ranks away) so perhaps we'll be seeing that matchup at some point next time. Physically there's no doubt that Atamifuji is makushita-worthy already even having just graduated from high school, but it remains to be seen if his technique is also up to scratch against more challenging opposition. That being said, I doubt he'll have to spend more than one or two tournaments in sandanme. Murakawa will be moving up to high jonidan. In all likelihood it's going to be his only jonidan appearance, but I'd be somewhat surprised if he's going to challenge for the division title there as well.