Kaito

And just from poking around that list, I found there were 3 basho in 2000 where Kotonishiki and Mitoizumi were in Juryo simultaneously, but they were both kosho absent in the first, never scheduled against each other in the second, and both retired mid-basho in the 3rd, again without facing off.

If I'm being projected for 15 points in Toto, I've got a rather tenuous grasp on them. I happen to have the tiebreaker currently amongst a large 4-1 group, but it can easily become 0 points. In Tippspiel, I bounced back to reclaim 2nd, but until recently I've considered it my worst game and there's a long way to go. Just need a Hoshoryu win today to hit the special question in Norizo Cup and hopefully lock up some real points. Tried to shoot to 1st in Odd yesterday but lost the last leg of the 5-man bet when Ura didn't get his pull quite right. I've hit my fair share of Odd bets in the past, but my hit percentage when I'm down to only needing the last wrestler must be about 25%. As is my custom, I made a bunch of unhelpful alterations to my Oracle entry before submitting, but I'm still hoping for a result there.

Hoshoryu?

Kiribayama katasukashi! Unique kimarite achieved on day 1! 4) There will be at least one day when Kiribayama wins with a Kimarite not used in any other Makuuchi bout in a day.霧馬山、幕内の取組でその日唯一の決まり手で勝つ日

Same story here, but instead of e-mailing, I just assumed everything will be okay. Edit - Actually I just re-entered last minute because I had no idea what my own picks were and it's less fun if I'm in the dark. Of course I spent way less time and effort than I did originally.

Pretty boring entry from me. Sanyaku - Went with consensus. I never actually enter it into my sheet because it usually requires little thought. M2-M4 - This was the only thing that made sense to me, but I do think they hate to give sanyaku demotees a full demotion, even if the section seems overcrowded. I was looking at under-demoting Ichinojo at Midorifuji's expense somehow, because I feel like something like that will manifest, but I couldn't stomach it. M8-M9 - Pretty standard here as well, but my first draft had Takarafuji first and Takanosho last, which I thought wasn't unreasonable. For consistency, I would've given Onosho similar leniency rather than overpromoting Chiyoshoma, so I had them in a close battle for M10W behind Abi. Chiyoshoma/Abi and Kotoeko/Kotoshoho were the two decisions I spent the most time on, but still have no confidence in what I've done. Wasn't really interested in changing anything else.

If you read the first post on page 4 of the thread you linked, Asashosakari corrects himself and links a 2011 thread sharing the new Toto tiebreakers. I think that's the best we have available sadly.

Afaik, the tiebreaker is most points earned in Makuuchi matches and the leaderboard always shows in order of tiebreaker. I don't know how to get the exact numbers without going day by day and counting by hand.

Correction to q5 - Midorifuji won vs Daieisho.

Oh well, I missed my chance with Hiradoumi yesterday. Good luck to those still in contention.

In the last 2 years, Tamawashi is 53-29 from day 1 to day 7 and 29-53 from day 9 to day 15 (I included the 1 fusen in each direction just for the perfect symmetry). I can't think of him as a contender yet, let alone the frontrunner.

You're not wrong that he won the same way in the recent past. Ura's antics seem to baffle the kimarite assigner. I researched his "izori" against Kyokushuho when it happened and determined it should have been a tsutaezori. His famous "tasukizori" in 2017 was an even more inaccurate label for another tsutaezori, meaning we may not have seen a true tasukizori in the paid ranks in over 70 years (unless it was also mislabeled). He's not lifting the opponent's belt or legs in any of these. Sometimes he performs the same technique and gets different results, like his Ushiromotore vs Azumaryu in Kyushu 2020. If the opponent doesn't go down, he can still back up to drive them out. Anyway, I'm satisifed that they finally got it right this time. I'd be more satisifed if they'd go back and correct the history books as regards some of these rare kimarite, but I'm not gonna worry about something that'll never happen.

That's quite the turn of events! At this rate, maybe the torch will stick around again and I'll finish the year with a bullseye at Ms15w!

Well, my original plan was for Asanoyama to be Ms15w this basho and win a few torch matches at the rank. 15e does nothing for me and others have Asanoyama as well, so I guess I'm dead in the water.

I think you're confused. Ganz finished at -2. I started at -8. If I had picked two rikishi at +4 each and they won, I could have finished at 0. The pick Oskahanada made would also land at 0 with a win. For Fujisan, it was the 3rd absence in a row. If he had reappeared, I would've needed him to lose for sure. I already needed a difficult day. I did miss Kotononami's nice bet. Looks like he was the most hurt by Hokutofuji's withdrawal. If he'd won, I only could have bested his tiebreaker by winning with Shimanoumi, which I was pretty averse to trying. I wouldn't say there's no risk. If I lose on an easy day, I could be tied for 10th with 10 people, divvying up 1 point.

What I speculated was that my odds ranged from over 1% to possibly over 5%. I certainly didn't say a win was likely. I was surprised to see an opening to attempt to yusho at all, given my poor start, poor tiebreaker, and many people in front of me. Just to throw some rough estimates out...the chance of randomly picking 2 winners from the torikumi only starts at 25%, and should be worse from the set of available TTT picks, then worse still when you're targeting the ones with the worst win differentials. Still, if you'll allow that something like Tokushoryu +4 to win (vs Hiradoumi) and Nishikifuji +3 to lose (vs Hokutofuji) has a 20-25% of coming off, then if you get this kind of trap-filled day where all the leaders lose once every 5 days, you've got about 4-5% to hit both scenarios. You could also shave a couple percent off for the chance a player with a better tiebreaker does the same thing and hits, but I correctly assumed nobody else would be attempting any such thing. With the aforementioned picks, only Oskahanada (who also picked Hokutofuji) could have hit and beaten my TB by 1 (he started 6 ahead). There were other options to go for +4 and +4, or even +7 from Shimanoumi, but I didn't want to touch him with a 10-foot pole. Anyway, given that I didn't go for it and I lost, I indeed do not feel bad about the result. I retained most of the points that I was interested in protecting. I know using Hokutofuji wasn't the best example since he didn't fight, but that wasn't known until after the deadline, and that was a real set of picks I remember considering.

You previously implied that I hadn't had a shot because of who the 3 in the lead were. In fact, the opportunity was there. It's easy for an overwhelming majority to lose in TTT when the popular picks don't come through. I didn't actually go for the tiebreak winning play so naturally I didn't improve my tiebreaker. I don't think the necessary picks even came through today. If they had, the opportunity was there.

Am I the only one in favor of not promoting Kiribayama? Even with Ichinojo's help, 8-7 doesn't feel very forcing.

Grats on the TTT yusho, Ganz. Despite Rocks's faith in the top 3, they all lost on Terunofuji for the 2nd straight day and were overtaken.

The Odd bet to tie actually won, but I unfortunately switched to a "safer" pick wherein I trusted Tochinoshin and blundered the potential yusho. I'm doing well in some games tonight, but not the ones I wanted.

I think I just got robbed of 15 World Championship points! Takarafuji's win should have been yoritaoshi, no?

I'm not in a great position to win TTT, but I was looking at taking some unpopular, tiebreaker-improving bouts. It seemed like I would've had at least a >1% chance (maybe even over 5%?) to leap past many people and steal the yusho if the popular picks had a bad day and I could improve my TB by 7 or 8 points. I chickened out though, just trying to conserve my place in the points.

I mean, if she loses 3, she's ahead by virtually nothing, so I have thought about just picking my 3 most likely winners. It'd be even more tempting if there are withdrawals since I could potentially pick only 1 rikishi and gain enough. But she actually didn't bet on day 3 and is under no obligation to today, so I'm not sure I want to assume. I have a reasonable bet that can tie for 1st if Choshu-yuki doesn't bet, but if I know I'm losing the tiebreaker, I can swap out one leg for a slightly more profitable option without much hassle. I actually led in Kyushu and I made a bet on day 14, after not betting for 4 days in a row, and somebody hit a bet that would have come in just underneath my total if I hadn't bet and lost. I've been shown repeatedly in these games that not all opponents play logically! In this case, if I know for a fact she's risking 3, it makes my job easier, so declining to bet sometimes isn't unreasonable. As far as people behind, I'm not gonna worry about what I can't control. It's hard to hit big bets right now anyway, with few matches, and no huge multipliers. Depending on the results, it can be impossible. If somebody hits a huge hail mary, congrats to them.

@Golynohana I'm still curious about the Odd Sumo yusho tiebreaker. I never lost interest really, but it somehow may be relevant to my bet choice again today.

I guess I'm either gonna yusho again in Norizo Cup or finish out of the top 10, depending on whether Takarafuji can win without yorikiri or not. I'm not expecting things to work out, but maybe Ryuden can be nice and drop out so my man can get the fusen-sho.