HenryK

Ok I'll bite. There is no humiliation here. Common training practice in sumo. Usually you take turns and either do deep squats or jogging. Very effective way to build leg strength. Fair enough. I'd need to see a video of the entire thing to be able to assess whether I'd consider this humilitaing or not. More generally though, while many training practises may be sensible as such, it's the way they are executed that I find irritating at times. Like higher ranked rikishi padding lower ranked ones on the butt or pushing their noses into the dirt without necessity. Or when a higher ranked fella acts as if the lower ranked rikishi carrying him was a pony. Sure, cultural preconceptions etc. certainly play a part here. Cheers, H

I'ts public humiliation like this one that I find at times irritating about ozumo. Is this necessary?

Poor Yoshikaze. If you guys are right and he ends up in a M3 spot, I can only see a very frustrating basho for him. Maybe he did too well for his own good this time around.

Well, Kiseonsato fought 6 opponents ranked lower than himself. By contrast, Hokoutoriki at M3E fought only 4 lower ranked opponents; 3 of them in the last 3 days when KK was already way out of reach. And Toyonoshima at M1E fought only 2 opponents ranked lower than M4E (Kisenosato's rank). I would think this should be taken into consideration when comparing his 9-6 to Kise's 11-4. That's true, but look on the other hand who Kisenosato didn't meet out of those ranked higher than him: Goeido, Futeno and Hokutoriki (all 5-10, plus Wakanosato in his own heya) while Hokutoriki didn't meet Toyonoshima (9-6). Kisenosato (and also Tochinoshin and to a lesser degree even Asasekiryu) was in the joi-jin for all practical purposes (he was #14 after all with the withdrawal of Asashoryu, Kaio and Toyohibiki), and got the traditional mop-up duty to get stronger opponents for overperforming lower rankers like Miyabiyama and Takamisakari. Going by my strength ratings, Kisenosato's opponents had a normal joi-jin average (even higher than Hakuho, but that's because Hakuho can't meet himself...). The lowest opponent averages in the joi-jin belonged to Kotomitsuki, Kotooshu and Kotoshogiku... Thanks. A propos strenght-ratings.... please let me know when there is a publicly accessible update. I'm really interested.

Well, Kiseonsato fought 6 opponents ranked lower than himself. By contrast, Hokoutoriki at M3E fought only 4 lower ranked opponents; 3 of them in the last 3 days when KK was already way out of reach. And Toyonoshima at M1E fought only 2 opponents ranked lower than M4E (Kisenosato's rank). I would think this should be taken into consideration when comparing his 9-6 to Kise's 11-4.

Hmmm..... I don't think I agree with this. Ama showed great defensive posture, but he didn't attempt any winning techinque of his own. And once Hakuho had his left-hand inside mawashi grip, it was only a matter of time until he would carry through a succesful uwatenage. Except for the first few seconds, the fight never really hung in the balance. This contrasts with, say, Hakuho vs. Asashoryu at senshuraku of Hatsu basho. As for where Ama (or what ever he'll be called) will establish himself within the Ozeki group, let's see. Strange things happen to rikishi after the climb to Ozeki, two of the last three (Kotooshu, Kotomitsuki) suddenly fell back from 13-2 type of bashos to a lacklustre 8-7, 9-6 pattern. Oh.So do you see any yaocho in the bout? You try do get me into trouble.... No, I don't see any obvious signs of yaocho, in particular as Ama fought his heart out not to be lifted out of the dohyo. It's entirely plausble that Hakuho just maneuvered himself into a winning position in the first 20 seconds, and then spent the rest of the fight figuring out how to use it. This said, it would have made perfect sense ex ante for both Hakuho and Ama to split their bouts the way they did. But thinking too much about this just spoils all the joy. There are many situations in ozumo where some kind of tactical agreement would make sense to the rikishi, this is one. Better not to think too much about it.

Nice effort, I've only small disagreements (for example, I expect Tokitenku above Tochinonada). I've a question though: most order Aminishiki -- Kisenosato -- Toyonoshima just as you did. I wonder why -- shoudn't M1e 9-6 be worth more than K1w 8-7? I personally would give the Sekiwake rank to Toyonoshima. Then Aminishiki, and Kisenosato at the bottom of the Sanyaku ranks as he came from below (or bottom end of, depending on the definition) the meatgrinder. But I guess I must be missing something.

Hmmm..... I don't think I agree with this. Ama showed great defensive posture, but he didn't attempt any winning techinque of his own. And once Hakuho had his left-hand inside mawashi grip, it was only a matter of time until he would carry through a succesful uwatenage. Except for the first few seconds, the fight never really hung in the balance. This contrasts with, say, Hakuho vs. Asashoryu at senshuraku of Hatsu basho. As for where Ama (or what ever he'll be called) will establish himself within the Ozeki group, let's see. Strange things happen to rikishi after the climb to Ozeki, two of the last three (Kotooshu, Kotomitsuki) suddenly fell back from 13-2 type of bashos to a lacklustre 8-7, 9-6 pattern.

I expect Asashoryu to be more competitive than that. He's to proud a man to go out like this, hence I would assume he enters Hatsu prepared. If so, the upcoming basho will test whether he can still win bashos. If the answer is no -- and it may well be -- my hunch is that he'll leave ozumo with a record of something like 11-4, with most losses coming towards the basho's end.

Agreed. Hmmmm... yes it does a bit, in my opinion. But then there is nothing that can be done about it.

Thanks. What would this place be without you and Mr. Kintamayama.

That's not it. The other Ozeki couldn't assist Dejima and Miyabiyama in their hour of need (to avoid demotion) because M/D were injured.

Certinaly one of the most spectacular bouts.

Playing devil's advocate: REASON 1: both got demoted when injury prevented them from completing the basho (and thus from receiving "cooperation"). REASON 2: both were demoted in 2001, while accumulution of "cooperative" outcomes is a more recent phenomenon.

For me Y1E Hakuho (13-1) by uwatenage over Y1W Asashoryu (13-1) on day 15 of Hatsu basho.

Well I give you that this basho didn't looked nice. All results from day 13 came in exactly as they had to in order to grant Chiyotaikai and Kotooshu KK. Including Chiyotakai's hatakikomi win over Kotomitsuki--a guy he's been 4-11 against in the past 3 years--and that prevented a 7-7 matchup between Osh and Taikai on senshukaru (hence Taikai could safely slip). Even worse looked Haru 08, when all three competing Ozeki came out exactly 8-7. All this isn't evidence of open match-fixing, however, but may rather reflect -- as your title suggests -- a silent understanding between Ozeki "I give you what you need this time, but next time when I'm in need you remember". It would certainly be in their career interest to act this way. The reason why these kind of threads aren't popular, I guess, is that when you think it through there are so many situations where collusion could be mutually helpful for rikishi. It would surely made have sense, for example, for Hakuho and Ama to agree ex-ante on splitting their bouts the way they did. Thinking too much about this is sickening and can spoil everything, hence better to not to engage into it.

100% agree!!! (Bow...) Same here. B-)

I find several results surprising at first sight but perfectly plausible when thinking it through. For example, KK probability is above 50 percent for Y-S, below 50 Percent for K-M6 or so. Well, in the standard banzuke (2Y 4O 2S 2K) the S1W has 7 guys ranked above him and 8 below, the K1E 8 above and 7 below. Thus, if the banzuke makers get on average the relative rikishi strenght right, the S1W should get KK in more than 50 percent of the cases, the K1E in less than 50. And this is exactly how it is.

Here I try to upload a chart shwing above percentages (I do this the first time, hence I may go wrong)

To account for Doitsuyama's comment, I added the overall KK probability at each rank (last column) to the KK probability after opromotion (central column). At every rank except Yokozuna the overall KK probability is substantially higher than for promoted rikishi, suggesting that overpromotion (or -achievement) is common. The banzuke makers like to generate movement. The overall rank-to-rank pattern is the same: M3 is the toughest spot on the banzuke, followed by M2/M4. Within the Yokozuna group, the Y1E stands out with a KK probability of 92 percent compared to about 85 percent for Y1W/Y2E. By contrast, there is little difference in KK percentages between Ozeki (around 85 percent for O1E-O2W). The detailed KK percentages at lower Sanyaku and below is: S1E (71.0), S1W (55.9), K1E (46.9), K1W (38.8), M1E (36.9), M1W (30.9), M2E (26.3), M2W (22.8), M3E (21.3). M3E is the absolute low point. Below M13 the KK probability falls again. At M16 its 49 percent -- presumably because at the bottom end of the banzuke rikishi tend, on average, get to fight higher ranked opponents than themselves, just as at K-M3. M13 - 46.8 -- 58.1 M12 - 43.5 -- 58.5 M11 - 48.3 -- 61.7 M10 - 45.1 -- 60.1 M9 -- 45.1 -- 57.1 M8 -- 42.7 -- 54.9 M7 -- 47.7 -- 56.8 M6 -- 35.7 -- 45.8 M5 -- 22.7 -- 37.2 M4 -- 18.6 -- 30.1 M3 -- 16.6 -- 22.3 M2 -- 19.5 -- 24.6 M1 -- 28.1 -- 33.8 K --- 38.7 -- 43.6 S --- 55.6 -- 62.6 O --- 81.8 -- 84.8 Y --- 91.2 -- 87.4

No he didn't. He wouldn't give up on a yusho opportunity, and Chiyotaikai still has two more days to get his win, so he wouldn't be the one causing Chiyotaikai's kadoban. Why am I seriously answering these?? Because there is an off chance that someone may actually be "buying" your goods at face value, sir, and we wouldn't want that.. But Chiyotaikai mustn' beat Hakuho to keep the yusho race interesting, and he mustn' beat Kotooshu as the latter needs two wins for KK. I agree that this one looks more suspicious than one would like. Wouldn't be the first time that the Ozeki-KK needs all added up on the final days.

That conclusion is a bit premature. I think you have to compare with the KK percentage of all rikishi at each rank - if it's below 50% too are all rikishi overpromoted? Another alternative explanation is that a significant percentage of KK rikishi may simply have overachieved, i.e. their talent level didn't support their KK in the first place, so they're always much less likely than 50% to repeat no matter how far they're promoted. Both legit objections. I had a criterion in mind that says "a rikishi is promoted to the right spot if he has a 50 percent chance of getting KK". If the specific rank hard to defend in the first place, a below-50 percent-chance may not point to overpromotion. And "overpromotion" and "overachievement" are of course impossible to separate.

[EDIT] I attach the chart from post 10 A little stats exercise (that turned out to be less "little" than I had ancitipated) that works as follows: all basho since 1960, makuuchi only, look at rikishi who got promoted to rank X, and compute the share of rikishi that achieved KK at the new rank. Only promotions within makuuchi, promotions by at least a full rank, M13-Y (keeping in mind that above S the promotion rules are obiously different. Below M13 there are not enough observations.) I counted by hand, hence there are probably a few mistakes, but nothing major or systematic. Here is the result Rank-- #KK-- #MK-- %KK M13-- 22-- 25-- 46.8 M12-- 30-- 39-- 43.5 M11-- 58-- 62-- 48.3 M10-- 65-- 79-- 45.1 M9-- 83-- 101-- 45.1 M8-- 91-- 122-- 42.7 M7-- 113-- 124-- 47.7 M6-- 91-- 164-- 35.7 M5-- 73-- 248-- 22.7 M4-- 62-- 272-- 18.6 M3-- 61-- 306-- 16.6 M2-- 83-- 342-- 19.5 M1-- 118-- 302-- 28.1 K-- 179-- 284-- 38.7 S-- 160-- 128-- 55.6 O-- 45-- 10-- 81.8 Y-- 21-- 2-- 91.2 Observations: -- except for Y-S, the KK percentage is below 50 percent at all ranks. Hence the banzuke makers do in general "overpromote". -- there is only slight overpromotion at the lower makuuchi ranks, however -- following a promotion to M7-M13, the KK percentage is about 45 percent -- from M7 to M3, the KK percentage falls dramatically -- from 48 percent (M7) to 36 percent (M6) to 23 percent (M5) to 19 percent (M4) to a low of 17 percent (M3). Live in the meatgrinder is tough indeed. The fact that rikishi get tougher opponents with higher ranks clearly dominates the fact that they get better. According to these stats, M4 and arguably also M5 ought to be considered part of the meatgrinder. -- from M3 to S the KK chances increase again -- 17 percent (M3), 20 percent (M2), 28 percent (M1), 39 percent (K), 56 percent (S). S-M3 fight the same opponents, but the quality of the rikishi increases. For O the KK percentage after promotion is 82 percent, for Y 91 percent, but of course these rikishi go through a more challenging vetting process. -- all this is consistent with with intuition, but I found it interersting to see these effects confirmed that clearly by the numbers.

Today Kotooshu almost threw his bout against Dejima by attempting a reckless and totally unnecessary hatakikomi. Escaping by a hair's width he ended up chest-to-chest with Dejima after both regained their balance, and then Kotooshu didn't have the slightest difficulty forcing Dejima out. It all looks like lack of confidence. You wonder why.

To add my five cents, I find it hard to decipher an obvious yaocho here. I don't see that "in a couple of situations Hakuho goes from the inside to the outside pretty much on his own". I see Hakuho trying three times to get his prefered left-hand inside mawashi grip. The first time he is pushed back by Ama. The second time Ama blocks Hakuho's left with his right. The third time Ama moves his hips backwards, then steps in and beats Hakuho to a double-handed inside chest-to-chest mawashi grip that he converts into a fine shitatenage. It all looks like brilliant sumo. To borrow a term from boxing, Ama fought like a fast, aggressive, but cautious "counterpuncher" (or rather "countergripper") to beat a rushed and somewhat predictable attack. This said we'll of course never know for sure whether this was staged, but if so it was done very expertly.