Sumo Spiffy

I suppose that depends on your definition of "fun". I suspect we take a greater joy from chaos than the JSA. And Mitakeumi went down because then Tokihayate has a friend in 7-8 demotion. I'm starting to think we never manage any perfect banzuke predictions because we consistently fail to acknowledge the JSA's commitment to positive relationships.

Except, if that was the case, it's even more baffling that they ended up with Roga and Fuji in those spots. They've leaned much harder into full or full-ish demotions lately (case in point: I remember when the research would have probably led me to the same Ichi conclusion you had, but they've swung away from significant underdemotions so much that Tobi at M8e felt like a no-brainer), so if they started with Fuji and plopped him at M12e, it seems inevitable they would place Roga a rank down at M12w. Then Tomokaze goes to M11w, next to Shishi, which is the logic I think most of us expected regardless of where they landed. I'd understand if they split up Tomokaze and Shishi on the basis that Tomokaze has clear physical limitations, whereas Shishi at least theoretically can keep climbing the ranks. But that still doesn't explain dropping Fuji behind Shishi, especially when Roga got to hold rank. That's nudging up on when Chiyoshoma got tanked after his henkaboshi, but we could at least point to that as a probable reason why he got done that way. There's no apparent cause to do Fuji this dirty. Edit: Theoretical conversation: "OK, Fuji to 12e and Roga to 12w. That puts Shishi at 11e and Tomokaze at 11w." "Uh... are we really moving Tomokaze that far up?" (drink) "Good point. Switch him with Roga." That's really the only way I can see this happening without it being a typo.

56 despite getting Takayasu, Wakamotoharu, and Gonoyama right. The only one I kinda regret, though, was Atami behind Churanoumi. Shouldn't have gotten that wrong.

Same, at least with respect to records. There are definitely times when it looks like who they're placing has some impact on where they go, so I'm not rejecting out of hand the possibility they bump Takayasu down for what would not be a good reason. But I will be surprised if it happens.

The precedent doesn't really matter here. If anything, the fact they did that is viewed as a reason to demote him to M1e now, because he squeaked back to K1e and then had another losing record. I put Takayasu at K1w because, if the K1e -> K1w thing had never happened, I'm positive that's what they would do. I'm hoping the second losing record in three tournaments isn't enough reason to make them act differently.

Y'all are making me feel better about my last-minute shift of Gonoyama down to M13e. Still higher than most, I expect, but it would be somewhat in line with how much I think Kotoshoho will get saved if he lands at 11e.

Half-hour.

Just post it here after the deadline. It's easy enough to calculate once the banzuke is out.

Theft. Saying it's also bullying is reasonable under these circumstances, but taking someone's money without an intention or agreement to return it is straight-up theft. I hope we can agree theft is generally more serious.

Unless Koto is out with an injury.

Theoretical question: Aonishiki will be top four next time, so the yokozuna will be out of his hair until the final days. Let's say twelve wins is where they'll seriously think about it but might still say no. Is promotion in any of these situations more likely than the others? 12-0, loses out (both Y and either Koto or Oho) 11-1, leading or tied for lead; loses to both Y, wins day 15 10-2, second place, beats one Y, wins day 15 9-3, on the edge of contention, beats both Y, wins day 15 Assume no yusho. Maybe JY, but that depends on everyone else.

I understand why it happened. Had I followed the sport at the time, maybe I'd have agreed with the decision. It's still the strongest run denied; if you want to look at it as he got singularly fucked with cause, fair enough.

I think we've also forgotten Tachiai.org's very useful article about ozeki runs and how often 33 in 3 gets the job done: https://tachiai.org/2022/05/29/a-brief-history-of-ozeki-runs-updated/ Cliff notes: At the time this was written (mid-2022), there were 52 ozeki runs of at least 33 wins over three tournaments. 45 succeeded, seven didn't. Of the seven that didn't, four started in maegashira. (Realistically it was three of six, since Wakanohana is technically in there twice.) The three others that didn't succeed started at komusubi. The six men involved: Takanohana ('72): M1 10-5, K 11-4 JY, S 12-3 JY (promoted the following basho after 10-5) Wakanohana ('93): M3 10-5, K 14-1 Y, S 10-5 (promoted the following basho after 13-2 D) Kotomitsuki ('01): M2 13-2 Y, S 9-6, S 12-3 Miyabiyama ('06): K 10-5, S 14-1 Y, S 10-5 Baruto ('09): K 12-3, S 9-6, S 12-3 JY (promoted the following basho after 14-1 JY) Takakeisho ('18): K 9-6, K 13-2 Y, S 11-4 JY (promoted the following basho after 10-5) If Aonishiki goes 11-11-11 and is denied, it would fall about in the middle of this pack with respect to the strength of the run. Miyabiyama got singularly fucked by the JSA and will probably always hold the crown for strongest ozeki run denied. Takanohana has the closest direct comparison, but with one more win in the san'yaku and two JYs, so his run is slightly stronger. There are reasons to view Baruto and Takakeisho's runs as stronger or weaker than an Aonishiki 11-11-11, so let's split them for simplicity. Wakanohana had a 14-1, but that was sandwiched by 10-5s at M3 and S, so I'd nudge that behind Aonishiki. Kotomitsuki had 34 in 3, but his best basho (13-2) was at M2, so I stick that at the bottom. Is this to say I think it's fine and correct if Aonishiki pulls yet another 11-4 and is denied ozeki? No. Probably the one thing in this whole conversation Bunbun and I agree on is that this should suffice to promote Aonishiki to ozeki. My point with all this is that if Aonishiki goes 11-4 again and isn't promoted, it shouldn't be shocking or viewed as targeting him for untoward fuckery. The Baruto/Takakeisho examples show that, even though a promotion to komusubi rather than M1 would have obviously increased his chances of ozeki promotion after November, it still wouldn't create a guarantee. In addition, Aonishiki's youth and newness to the pro ranks may be a real sticking point for the JSA. Takanohana had seven years in the pro ranks, but only turned 22 during his run. Wakanohana had five years experience and also turned 22 during his run. Kotomitsuki was 25, but had less than three years experience (accelerated ms60 start). Takakeisho was 22 with four years experience. Baruto's a little bit of an outlier in this respect, at 25 with five years experience, and Miyabiyama was a special case, but that's still four of the six. If we want to look a little closer to the present day, there are guys who made ozeki at similarly young ages and/or without a ton of experience, without all three bashos being at sekiwake. Kotooshu (22 y/o, three years exp; 36 in 3, K-S-S) Hakuho (20 y/o, five years exp; 35 in 3, K-S-S) Terunofuji (23 y/o, four years exp; 33 in 3, M2-S-S) Onosato (24 y/o, 1.5 years exp; 34 in 3, K-S-S) If Aonishiki is promoted to ozeki after November, he'll be younger than all of these guys except Hakuho (21) and with less experience than any except Onosato (two years). And that extra experience is due to having to climb the lower ranks; they would have done it after the same number of sekitori (seven) and makuuchi (five) bashos. And if he were promoted with another 11-4, he would have a clearly weaker case than any of them. Terunofuji's 33 in 3 run was 8-7 at M2, then 13-2 JY and 12-3 Y at sekiwake. Plus, all four had at least two yushos or jun-yushos—another 11-4 might be a JY for Aonishiki, but just as likely not. And if all that's not enough, the JSA might very well look at the fact that when they turn these guys down with 33 in 3, they often come back the next tournament and prove they belong. Again, that may not be a good reason, but we're not talking about good reasons; we're talking about what the JSA will think about in making this decision. So, Aonishiki may deserve to be an ozeki, but if he hits 33 in 3 in November and doesn't get it, it does not mean he's explicitly being targeted for bullshit. For several reasons, it would be very much in line with past decisions. Edit: After putting all this together, I'm inching closer to the view of @Gurowake that it might take 13-2 for Aonishiki to get promoted in November. I still think 12-3 will do it, if only because there's nobody else who looks capable of pushing the yokozuna, but I'm not as locked into that idea now.

This is my corrected version of juryo, since my first attempt involved completely forgetting Takerufuji and Nishikigi, and I want the right one up somewhere: Hitoshi (M17w 7-8) J1 Kotoeiho (J2e 8-7) Fujiseiun (J5w 10-5) J2 Mita (J4w 9-6) Daiseizan (J1e 7-8) J3 Kagayaki (J4e 8-7) Asahakuryu (J11w 13-2 Y) J4 Asanoyama (J13w 12-3) Hatsuyama (J8e 9-6) J5 Takerufuji (M12e 0-0-15) Tochitaikai (J5e (7-8) J6 Kotokuzan (J8w 8-7) Shirokuma (J9e 8-7) J7 Nishikigi (M16w 2-13) Kayo (J6e 6-9) J8 Kazekeno (J11e 8-7) Hidenoumi (J7w 6-9) J9 Tohakuryu (J6w 4-11) Hakuyozan (J10e 7-8) J10 Nishinoryu (J14w 8-7) Tamashoho (J7e 4-11) J11 Tsurugisho (J9w 5-10) Kitanowaka (ms1w 5-2) J12 Asasuiryu (J12w 7-8) Nagamura (ms2w 5-2) J13 Wakanosho (ms3w 5-2) Goshima (ms5w 6-1) J14 Shiden (J14e 7-8)

I don't think they'll hesitate to dump Daiseizan an extra half-rank back. Mostly it's the much greater willingness to overdemote of late, so this is probably true no matter whose name is there. But Daiseizan has been so disappointing overall relative to how he fights when he's on track that i wouldn't be shocked if they're a little quicker to punt him back than most others.