sadanoumi_is_my_favorite

I can't comment on Endo because I don't consider him a young hopeful. I have only been following Makuuchi sumo since early 2015 so he's old news to my experience. There are nine rikishi younger than him: Kotoyuki, Daishomaru, Shodai, Terunofuji, Hokutofuji, Chiyootori, Mitakeumi, Ichinojo and Daiesho. As for Shodai vs. Mitakeumi: They have both been in Makuuchi since Shodai entered in Hatsu 2016; Mitakeumi debuted one basho earlier and went 8-7 at M11w. Their performances in Makuuchi since then have been: Hatsu Shodai M12w 10-5 Mitakeumi M10w 5-8-2 Haru Shodai M6w 9-6 Mitakeumi M13w 10-5 Natsu Shodai M2e 6-9 Mitakeumi M8w 11-4 Nagoya Shodai M5e 9-6 Mitakeumi M1e 5-10 Aki Shodai M2w 7-8 Mitakeumi M5w 10-5 Kyushu Shodai M3w Mitakeumi K (!!!!!!!) The biggest takeaway, I think, is that the lesser ranked rikishi always had the better tournament record, and that aside from Haru basho (when Shodai hadn't yet hit his wall) the higher ranked rikishi went makekoshi. Because of this, I predict that Mitakeumi will makekoshi and Shodai kachikoshi. Both rikishi make are (I don't have a way to say this, but basically what I'm getting at is "getting better" in a way that makes me enthralled and want to keep watching sumo) getting better every basho and it is impressive and exciting to see Mitakeumi enter sanyaku a year after joining Makuuchi but I expect that the promotion will be accompanied by a worse record. (Side note question: is M1 or K a harder rank to compete at?). Meanwhile, I think that Shodai is probably the more talented wrestler of the two and expect him to go kachikoshi with 8-7 or 9-6. I'll need to watch recent matches to see if his Nagoya showing was better than Haru or Aki better than Natsu but I have, in casually watching the bashos when they occur, thought that he's improving. As an American sumo aficionado, I have to say how excited I am for Kyusho basho now that the Cubbies won and there are no other sports events to look forward to until the Super Bowl.

I am upset that Goeido fought Tamawashi to get the yusho instead of going against Endo, the only other rikishi in yusho contention. Rank differences be what they may if on day 14 there are only two rikishi who could win the tournament then they should go against each other. Especially, a match against Tamawashi determines the yusho? They should have at least done Mitakeumi who is a higher rank and had the same record. smh it seems that organization interest dictated the last matches.

From Wikipedia: " After this result [losing in a playoff to the yokozuna] the Japan Sumo Association were faced with a difficult decision as there was only one yokozuna on the ranking lists, but five ōzeki, with a sixth wrestler - Hoshi (who would become yokozuna Hokutoumi), winner of the March 1986 tournament, already performing to ōzeki standard. The Association decided to promote Kitao to yokozuna and Hoshi to ōzeki. Kitao had won 36 bouts in the last three tournaments and been runner-up in the last two, so the defacto promotion standard of "two tournament championships or the equivalent" was interpreted rather loosely. He was just 22 years old and the first person to be promoted to yokozuna without any top division tournament titles since Terukuni in 1942. " " The decision to promote Futahaguro backfired and he proved to be a great embarrassment to the sumo establishment. His debut as a yokozuna in the September 1986 tournament saw him pull out on the seventh day with only three wins, and after two runner-up scores in November 1986 and January 1987 a series of mediocre performances followed. His best result as a yokozuna came in November 1987 when he was runner-up for the seventh time, with a 13-2 record. " It doesn't seem that Futahaguro should serve as an example of a qualification for becoming yokozuna because he obviously didn't live up to the expectations inherent in the position. He only wrestled as yokozuna in 8 bashos and only got more than 9 wins in 4 of them.

It'd need to be a 13-2 jun-yusho, probably, but I think it seems contrary to the sense of being a "champion" that two people could become one at the same time.

Kise promotion advocates: if Goeido wins Aki and Kisenosato finishes 13-2 J, based on Kisenosato's current run could either rikishi become yokozuna with a yusho in Kyushu?

I realized last basho that Sadanoumi is on a pretty incredible streak of seven makekoshis while staying in Makuuchi: despite not having a winning tournament since May 2015 he's only fallen from M1w to M10w (at least, until they release the ranks for Aki basho). There has been only one other rikishi to lose this many bashos and stay in Makuuchi: Aobayama, who had eight consecutive MKs from 1940.01 to 1943.05 before intai the next basho at M18. My search for this. Kitataiki was the previous active record-holder, with 6 MKs before going to Juryo in 2016.05 . Aoiyama had five consecutive MKs before going 8-7 at M6 this previous basho; Sokokurai is the current #2 Makuuchi MK streak leader with 3 consecutive bashos. Just thought it was interesting.

The slap by Takayasu on Yoshikaze was the loudest I've heard in sumo: the crowd reacted to it and seemed to expect Takayasu to win right afterward. Many props to Yoshikaze for being able to take his own medicine.

Tamawashi and Toyohibiki were born on the same day: November 16, 1984.

Is the persistence watch for all rikishi on MK streaks, or only those in Jd/Jk?

Thanks for the welcome. It does seem foolhardy to do match predictions on the forum, plus I don't think many people would be interested in bad guesses. I do think, however, that there could be some worth in trying to pick out the upcoming matches that seem most evenly matched. This approach seems more facilitating of discussion but I would ask: would it be more appropriate to include as part of the Basho Talk thread? I'll start from yokozuna and work down. •Hakuho - Kisenosato: I won't talk much about this because it is the biggest bout so far this basho and being discussed in other places but I wonder if its yusho relevance is clouding the actual matchup. Kisenosato is undefeated but this is also his first bout this basho against a Yokozuna and I would be very surprised if Hakuho lets his guard down on such an important match. Kisenosato will need to bring incredible sumo to the dohyo and even at his best it will be hard for him to beat an in-tune Hakuho. •Harumafuji - Kakuryu: I'd be curious to hear what people think about this matchup. Harumafuji is probably the better rikishi and has a (26-14) advantage over Kakuryu but they are both 10-2 this basho and I thought it was interesting that Harumafuji only leads (4-3) since Kakuryu's promotion to yokozuna. •Kaisei - Ichinojo: This is a great matchup because they are physically very similar – Ichinojo is only about 5kg heavier. Kaisei also seems to be one of the only rikishi who could go head to head against Ichinojo in yotsu-zumo. I think Kaisei will win, having more experience and better stability (plus achievable kachikoshi) but I think this could a long fights. •Takarafuji - Okinoumi: Also very hard to anticipate: the style of neither rikishi really places him at an advantage. I think Okinoumi has in general the better tachiai but Takarafuji is studier and fights better on the edge. •Daieisho - Takayasu: Takayasu has the experience and I think more bulk but Daieisho is definitely more exciting at this point. I wonder if Takayasu, having secured kachikoshi, will be too relaxed and be surprised by the younger Daieisho. •Sadanoumi - Gagamaru: Depends on which Gagamaru shows up at the dohyo. Not many rikishi, and especially not Sadanoumi, can out-oshi Gagamaru although it is an interesting matchup because Gagamaru is so (I don't know how technical this term is, but) topheavy, which Sadanoumi often exploits by redirecting his opponent's thrusts to try pulling them out of the ring. I'll also be very curious to see what happens if they go to each others belts, which I think might favor Sadanoumi (at least more than a tsuki bout). If the match lasts more than about four seconds I think it'll go to Sadanoumi but Gagamaru could win at the tachiai.

I disagree. Although he is a very big man he doesn't seem overweight: his size well matches his style. He has consistently shown good balance; I would say his biggest flaw is overreliance on his size to the detriment of technique. He's only 23 and was a sekiwake at 21: give him time and I think he could definitely get to Ozeki. I'd like to give him chance/time but he seems to give up too many bouts. That tells me he does not have mental strength. What others think? I fear I'll beat a dead horse in talking about his youth but I think it bears repeating. Ichinojo is the second-youngest rikishi in Makuuchi behind Daieishou: the youngest rikishi ranked above him are Terunofuji (~20 months older) followed by Kotoyuki (2 years, five months older). Shodai, at the same rank as Ichinojo, is a little more than two years older than him. My point is that, most rikishi gain experience and technique (along with mental fortitude) as they put on weight and climb the ranks. Ichinojo, who started in Makushita at a Makuuchi-type weight, is much less experienced than almost everyone he fights and because of this tends to appear as a novice or as if he isn't sure what he is doing. Despite this lack of experience, he is wrestling in upper Maegashira–M1 might be too high for him but I'd say he could easily post kachikoshi at M5. Give him two years maturation and I am confident he will establish himself as a sanyaku rikishi.

I disagree. Although he is a very big man he doesn't seem overweight: his size well matches his style. He has consistently shown good balance; I would say his biggest flaw is overreliance on his size to the detriment of technique. He's only 23 and was a sekiwake at 21: give him time and I think he could definitely get to Ozeki.

All of the threads I've seen on sumoforum have been by-and-large reviewing past matches. I think it would be interesting to see user try to predict the next day's matches: the real value would come from discussion why one rikishi might beat another. I realize it is pretty close to the start of Makuuchi day 12 so, with deference to moderators, I will try to keep this going through day 15. I'd welcome predictions or criticisms of my own predictions! The format for this post will be WINNER over LOSER followed by a number between 1 and 5 that indicates my confidence in pick. 5 is close to certainty and 1 is almost a toss up. The next day's matches can be found at http://www.sumo.or.jp/en/index Takekaze over Chiyotairyu - 4 Hidenoumi over Amuru - 4 Nishikigi over Chiyootori- 2 Sadanoumi over Daishomaru - 4 Sokokurai over Seirou - 4 Mitakeumi over Shohozan - 3 Osunaarashi over Endo - 4 Gagamaru over Takanoiwa - 2 Tokushoryu over Tochoizan - 1 - a close matchup Takayasu over Toyonoshima - 4 Tochinoshin over Daieshou - 3.5 Aoiyama over Tamawashi - 3ish Ichinojo over Yoshikaze - 3 Kaisei over Myogiryu - 4 Shodai over Okinoumi- 1 Takarafuji over Ikioi- 2 Kisenosato over Terunofuji - 5 Kakuryu over Kotoshougiku- 4 Hakuho over Goeido- 4 Harumafuji over Kotoyuki- 3 Nishikigi - Chiyootori – this is a hard match to call. Nishikigi has impressed me this basho though while I think Chiyootori might be complacent / demotivated. I really shouldn't consider my own preference but I'd much rather have Nishikigi win. Osunaarashi - Endo – Endo has had good performances in his Makuuchi return and Osunaarashi just lost but I think that skill-wise Osunaarashi blows him out of the water. Kaisei- Myogiryu: I am more confident than I should be but Kaisei has been doing sanyaku-level sumo and will be fighting hard to get back to .500 Shodai - Okinoumi: Shodai I think is the more natural rikishi although Okinoumi will be fighting to avoid makekoshi. It is hard to say but my gut says Shodai with mild reservations. I have to go with the Yokozuna on the final three bouts although Harumafuji- Kotoyuki will be a great fight because they're almost yin/yang wrestlers. If Kotoyuki can keep it a tsuki match I think he might be able to win but really I have too much respect for Harumafuji to bet against him. Kakuryu - Kotoshougiku will be an interesting bout as well but I'd be suprised if Kakuryu lets one pass, he's too sturdy and I think can withstand Kotoshougiku even on the edge of the dohyo. Again, I'd be very eager to hear what anyone else thinks might happen! Edit - with the time being 1:30am MST and an improbable prediction record of 0-6 I'm calling it a night. I'll write a post eating crow in the morning and trying to predict day 13. My missed guesses are partly due to my inexperience of predicting sumo (aside from blanket statements that Hakuho will do well) but it seems also that the brevity of sumo makes it intrinsically more difficult to predict than other sports. Either way, doing so is interesting and I had a good time trying to anticipate matchups; good night.