HenryK

I meant Chiyotaikai, of course.

I for my part have no doubt that many ozumo matches are thrown. The tournament format, the organization of the kyokai, the incentive structure for rikishi, all this invites manipulation. I have no good sense for how many matches are affected, but there is no doubt in my mind that neither Kotoshogiku nor Goeido would have made it to Ozeki had they had to earn their wins. But the Kyokai needed Japanese in the upper sanykau ranks after Chiyorairo, Komtomitsuki and Kaio left the sport in quick succession. So the one-trick-pony rikishi Kotoshogiku - who had managed not even 8 wins per basho on average when ranked joi-jin in 2009/10 - suddenly put in 11 in 2011. And Goeido must be one of the weakest Ozkei in recent history. Interesting suggestion that Mongolose rikishi would help one another get promoted. Why not, beat them with their own means. Surely better than going against the Kyokai head on and fall flat on hour face.

Komusubi: Takayasu, Tochiozan M1: Takarafuji, Tochinoshin M2: Teronofuji, Ikioi M3: Endo, Aminishiki Tosayutaka gets a lucky return to Makuuchi, Masunoyama a lucky to return to Juryo. Not sure how they will decide between Sakigake and Keitenkai for the reamining Jury spot.

I was so sure because I read on some reasonably credible source. Now I remembered, it was in the German Wikipedia Ozeki entry. Not that I consider it overly credible, but not the worst of sources. This wrong information still resides there, maybe anybody can clear it up in a free minute. I guess all reading the German Wikipedia have been fooled, me included! :-D

If I'm not mistaken you can start an Ozeki run from Komusubi, but not from M1. So in the not so unlikely event that Ichinojo goes straight to double digit results in the next bashos, that would make a huge difference. So the main point the Banzuke committee is going to discuss is whether they postpone Ichinojos Ozeki run. I think you simply are mistaken, and an Ozeki run is perfectly possible from M1. It's been a while since the last successful run, but there were five such Ozeki promotions in the six-basho era. Interesting. I was also under the impression that one needed at least K or better S for an Ozeki run. But it makes more sense if an Ozeki run can start at M1 or even M2. What I don't get is why so many think Ichinojo would be M1 next basho. SW looks most plausible to me, perhaps KE. But it seems hard to make the case for a lower rank.

Thanks for all this. You're a hero, Kintamayama.

Well, that's my question: would an Ichinojo yusho overturn the normal numbers game, and if so to what extent. I understand in the past it was standard practice to promote a lower-ranked maegashira who wins a basho at least to komusubi, even if it mean having a K2 category. But more recently this has not been the case (see Kyokutenho).

If Ichinojo wins the basho, his promotion to Sekiwake is pretty much a done deal - right?

I repeat myself (from what I've written a few years ago), but I like a well executed henka every now and then. It's a way of outsmarting your opponent. And anyway, a guy fighting his 5th basho has every right to use whatever legit means are available when matched up with a Yokozuna. It's for the Yokozuna to be careful.

I remember a nice henka by Aminishiki on Hakuho a few years back.

I agree in general, but that's not necessarily a function of the banzuke-making itself. It's just as possible that many rikishi over- or under-perform compared to their "true" strength, and the (over-)promotion/demotion that follows is fair based on the actual result, but excessive based on the expected result. Even with hypothetically "fair" rankings, this wouldn't be quite true since the bout scheduling itself works against it - at least the scheduling as practiced by the Kyokai. As e.g. a M11 and a M16 are receiving practically the same set of opponents, a fairly-ranked M11 would have a much greater likelihood of KK than a fairly-ranked M16.In fact, breaking the banzuke into mostly-separate divisions is the single biggest cause of creating up and down movement among the rikishi - just compare the schedule of the lowest-ranked maegashira to that of the highest-ranked juryo. Good point. In the past 10 years, M11s had a relative KK-MK frequency of 73-51; M16s of 47- 64. At the same time, M11s that had been demoted had a relative KK frequency of 35-17; those who had been promoted of 34-32 (I ignored folks who stayed at M11). For M16s, the scores are 24-23 (demoted) and 20-37 (promoted). All the pairwise differences are statistically significant, meaning that both our points hold.

No, a make-koshi maegashira will never get a promotion to higher than his current rank, much less to sanyaku. The best a make-koshi rikishi can hope for is to keep his current rank which happens very rarely and needs special luck. Importantly, the banzuke-makers do not really aim for a "fair" ranking that would accurately reflect the rikishi's relative strenghts. If so, the chance of any rikishi for KK would be about 50 percent, independent of how he arrived at this current rank. But in the past 10 years a rikishi ranked M1-16 who madet KK had only about a 30 percent likelihood to repeate this feat in the next basho. Meaning: banzuke setting tends to over-promote (and over-demote). This generates movement in the banzuke, ensures that the lower sanyaku and higher maegashira ranks get passed around - exposing Yokozuna and Ozeki to many different opponents - and generates interest. It also allows bright talents to rise through the ranks relatively rapidly.

There is no such thing as a free ozeki spot. Except for two which must be at all times on the banzuke, but even this can be a yokozuna too. I bet if Kakuryu gets 35 wins in three basho he will get promoted to ozeki, even if all current ozeki stay on their rank. True true. But it's hard to see Kakuryu being promoted as long as there are 5 other Ozeki (in case of coubt the 35 wins won't come about).

So this is what's gonna happen: they'll push Baruto to Yokozuna within the next 4 or 5 bashos, and give Kakuryu the free Ozeki spot.

Kaio retires, there is no Japanese Ozeki -- and whoops, the fella who got in an average of barely 8 when S-M3 with nhis one-trick pony sumo suddenly puts in 11 on a regular basis. Too much "chance" for my liking. Not that we didn't know it already, but this is rotten to the core.

I may be missing something, but it seems Takayasu would need 4 makuuchi demotees to have a chance--while I can identify only 3 plausible ones.

Seems Hakuho is Kisenosato's new Asashoryu.

For the second day in a row Baruto ended up both arms outside after the tachiai, allowing his opponents to yorikiri him with relative ease. Either his sumo is indeed deteriorating, or the other folks have figured him out.

I noticed that in the Kotooshu-Kisenosato bout, Kotooshu tried several times to get a grip on Kisenosato's belt from a good position, but he could not get his fingers in. Hence he was essentially helpless when Kisenosato moved forward. This gives rise to a wider question--are rikishi trying to bind their mawashi in ways that make it hard for their opponents to get a good hold--and are there are legal and illegal ways of binding a mawashi (similar to boxing, where there are legal and illegal ways of wrapping the boxer's hands)? Any insights welcome.

I noticed Kotooshu couldn't get a grip on Kisenosato's mawashi--he tried several times from promising positions, but his fingers didn't stick and he had to let go. So Kisenosato "overpowered" an opponent with no grip. Which gives rise to a wider question: I wonder whether rikishi try to bind their mawashi in ways that make it hard for their opponents to get a good hold--and whether there are legal and illegal ways of binding a mawashi (similar to boxing, where there are legal and illegal ways of wrapping the boxer's hands).

Before this basho I feared I might gradually lose interest in ozumo, with scandal after scandal pestering the Kyokai, entertaining characters like Asashoryu and Kotomitsuki out of the sport, and (partly as a consequence) Hakuho dominating the competition at will. But then I didn't, even though Hakuho dominated by the numbers as expected. Especially the second week carried both interest and entertainment, with the Ozeki giving Hakuho value for his money. Kotooshu, Baruto and Harumafuji are a competitive bunch with upwards potential, imo the generational changeover does the Ozeki rank a whole lot of good. Further down, Aran--who I had categorized as middle-to-upper rank maegashira with at best occasional, losing spells in the joi-jin ranks--surpised greatly on the upside. Also Tochiozan put in a fine performance, and Tochinoshin, inspite of a 6-9 record, showed that he is there to stay as a joi-jin regular. Good basho.

No. this is how it should be.

Hard on Tsurugidake, but somone had to bite the bullet.

I assumed Futeno, Kirinowaka, Sadanofuji and Kaiho would be demoted.

Agreed. What I proposed above makes more sense as rough guidance than as rigid rules.