HenryK

I for my part do not subscribe to the notion that there are circumstances where a henka is kosher and others where it is not. A henka punishes a careless opponent with a slick move, and a risky move if the opponent reads it. It's part of the game and without it sumo would not be sumo, as someone else wrote. Further, it's not that only Terunofuji would have henka-ed when much is on the line. Kotoshogiku himself has been no stranger to this, for example at Nagoya 2015 against the very Terunofuji, securing kachi-koshi but arguably ending the latter's Yokozuna run. Or earlier in his career against tsuppari specialists like Chiyotaikai or Miyabiyama, against who his one-trick-pony yotsu sumo did not work. As for this provoking an anti-foreigner pushback, I hope not, but who knows. There have always been forces for this, running the likes of Asashoryu out of town, while letting Kisenosato get away with every tachiai antics in the book and then granting him the easiest of promotions to Yokozuna since Futohaguro. It would indeed be something if Kisenosato makes it to Yokozuna with 12-3J 14-1Y, but Terunofuji would not make it with Y-Y. But if it comes indeed like this, it's only the kyokai that shows its colors.

Underwhelming for you perhaps, but as you can see in this thread there are sumo fans who enjoy a well-executed henka and consider it part of the game. I am one of them.

I though it was a pretty cool henka, well executed. Kotoshogiku took off like a space rocket, and may still not have landed. And I don't mind henkas as much as others here. It is a legit way of outsmarting your opponent.

A heartfelt thanks to Kintamayama and all the others who are trying to organize footage for your efforts. I am one of the many who quietly benefit from this, basho after basho, day by day. 10-15 minutes of interest and enjoyment per day I owe to you.

Well I guess Kisenosato is performing at yokozuna level then? Cause there's really very little difference between them. I guess this depends on what one looks at. As someone else noted, Kisenosato had an explosive start as a young rikishi. Kakuryu developed more slowly, reached sanyaku 3 years later than Kisenosato. So for much of their careers, Kisenosato was the stronger man. Now if one looks at their careers since Kakuryu started his Yokozuna run - i.e. from when he pulled away from Kisenosato - Kakuryu: - has a win ratio of 78 percent (105-30) against Kisenosato's 67 percent (110-55) - has a win ratio of 58 percent against Y/O (23-17), against Kisenosatos' 44 percent (20-25), - has 2 yusho against Kisenosato's 0, - has 2 basho with 14 wins, against Kisenosato's 0; - finished 5 out of 9 bashos with 12 wins plus, against Kisenosato 1 basho out of 11 - is head-to-head 5-4 against Kisenosato. In my view they are both ranked correctly.

I guess I could state the same statement about two arbitrary rikishi in the way you do it - without any arguments to support it, it's rather weak though. Let's look at the post-yokozuna-promotion scores (since including the promotion is a difference you concede already). Kakuryu is 77-28 as a yokozuna (73.3%) while Kisenosato is 94-41 in the same time (69.6%). Kakuryu got criticised in that time, what can we say about Kisenosato then? Not many good things probably... Speaking of probability, Kakuryu is not significantly better than Kisenosato actually (90% confidence interval of his win% is from 65% to 80%, with Kisenosato's ranging from 62% to 76%), and going by the eye test I agree that Kisenosato isn't looking exactly worse. But Kakuryu is much better in the big point situations (and I don't mean applying a henka here). Thanks for the in-depth analysis. I wasn't exactly taking two arbitrary rikishi though, but two rikishi at the top of their game -- one of which managed to take the next step, the other didn't. I wouldn't obviously have compared Kakuryu and Shohozan for example. My point, which very well came out in your analysis, was that Kakuryu has basically been performing at ozeki level (provided that ozeki is Kisenosato, not Goeido obviously). The analysis here http://www.sumoforum.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=34310&page=1 suggests otherwise. Kakuryu is a fine Yokozuna, at least by historical Yokozuna standards.

Kintamayama, many thanks also from me - as always.

The format of sumo invites collusion on senshuraku. I wouldn't call this corruption, it is just part of the game. Corruption would be when Ozeki promotions etc. are plotted. I have a suspicion that things like these may be happening too, but of course it's much harder to get a handle on them.

My best hunch: Y1 E Kakuryu (y1w 12-3) Y1W Hakuho (y1e -) Y2E Hamurafuji (y2e -) O1E Terunofuji (o1e 12-3) O1W Kisenosato (o1w 11-4) O2E Kotoshogiku (o2w 11-4) O2W Goeido (o2e 7-8) SE Tochiozan (se 8-7) SW Myogiryu (sw 8-7) KE Tochinoshin (ke 10-5) KW Yoshikaze (m1w 11-4) M1E Osunaarashi (m2e 8-7) M1W Ichinojo (m4e 9-6) M2E Ayoiama (m1e 7-8) M2W Okinoumi (kw 6-9) M3E Toyonoshima (m8w 10-5) M3W Ikioi (m12 e 11-4 - banzuke luck) M4E Aminishiki (m6e 8-7) M4W Sadanoumi (m3e 6-9) M5E Endo (m7e 8-7) M5W Amuru (m7w 8-7) M6E Kotoyuki (m10e 9-6) M6W Kaisei (m5W 6-9) or Homarefuji (m11w 9-6) P.S.: my expectation about Amuru entering joi-jin was indeed way off. All bouts on senshuraku went against him.

Well I guess the question is who these "some" people are and whether it "should". If sumo was only about forward-moving power, the only admissible kimarite should be kihonwaza techniques (yorikiri, oshidashi, tsukidashi etc.). But they are called "basic" techniques for a reason. What makes sumo so interesting is the mix of the basic strength techniques with nagete, kakete, hinerite. Defensive maneuvers, counters, non-anticipated moves to unbalance the opponent. Sumo isn't only about strength, it is about strength, speed, technique, anticipation, instinct, composure and smarts. And henka is a legitimate way to outsmart your opponent. Now a Yokozuna is expected to be able to do also forward moving sumo - meaning that he shouldn't henka all the time (which of course would be self-defeating, an anticipated henka is easy to counter). But this description doesn't fit Kakuryu, who is regularly showing forward moving power: recall his victorious strength battles against Ichinojo and Terunofuji in the last few bashos, both larger and stronger men. An occasional henka against a strong Ozeki who is infamous for seeking to gain advantage by rushing the tachi-ai - nothing wrong with this.

You got it.

Isn't all the other stuff you described also part of how the Kyokai defines hinkaku? That the yokozuna would bring no disgrace to his title either on or off the dohyo? A henka is no disgrace. Never has been, never will be.

Plugging Yoshikaze into sanyaku:Aoiyama Okinoumi Osunaarashi Ichinojo Aminishiki Endo Toyonoshima Ikioi are all guys who could end up in front of an 8-7 Amuru, perhaps even 6-9 Sadanoumi would. That's 9 rikishi. I forgot Ikioi. Point taken.

Even if all results go against Amuru tomorrow, I don't see how he would be ranked lower than M4W.

I agree with this. As soon as someone pulls a henka, folks here swarm out with this I-want-my-money-back attitude. But henka is a legitimate part of sumo, and a high-ranking Ozeki should be able to deal with this under any circumstances. As Kisenosato did, he countered the henka and almost won the bout. Except that Kakuryu came up with an even better counter.

Amuru looks like a shoo-in for joi-jin next basho, possibly as high as M3E. I'm curious what he can do up there.

I loved both henkas, and especially the second. And of course even more the counter to Kisenosato's counter, with Kisenosato landing like a piece of dough outside the doyo.

Excellent work. I understand ELO ratings have a tendency to inflate over time. But chart 3 controls for this, and interestingly Hakuho remains far ahead of the pack, leading Taiho, Kitanoumi and Chyonofuji.

My best hunch: Y1E Hakuho (y1e 14-1) Y1W Kakuryu (y2e 12-3) Y2E Harumafuji (y1w 1-1-13) O1E Terunofuji (o2w 11-4) O1W Kisenosato (o1e 10-5) O2E Goeido (o1w 9-6) O2W Kotoshogiku (o2e 8-7) SE Tochiozan (se 10-5) SW Myogiryu (kw 8-7) KE Okinoumi (m5e 11-4) KW Tochinoshin (m1e 8-7) M1E Yoshikaze (m8e 12-3) M1W Aoiyama (m2w 8-7) M2E Osunaarashi (m8w 11-4 - new career high) M2W Sadanofuji (m9e 10-5 - new career high) M3E Sadanoumi (m1w 6-9) M3W Takayasu (m2e 6-9) M4E Tamawashi (m7e 8-7 - banzuke luck) M4W Ichinojo (sw 4-11) M5E Kaisei (m3w 6-9) M5W Takarafuji (ke 4-11) M6E Aminishiki (m4e 6-9) M6W Endo (m12e 10-5)

I didn't know that the three Yokozunas are Intai ! Congratulations to Kisenosato at the top of the next banzuke ;) I don't think that Terunofuji will be O1W.... and I don't believe that Aoiyama will be M2E There was no point in stating the obvious so I just skipped them as they are not going anywhere right now. I wonder if you don't see yusho winning Teru at O1W, which of Goeido and Giku you consider more worthy of being O1W. Both are one of the most miserable Ozeki in history, have not won a single yusho and have not won more than 9 in a year or so. As for Aoiyama, not that I am impartial but in my books 9-6 from M6W is kind of more than 10-5 from M8W...apart from Takayasu I see nobody else really worthy of being M2E. Newly promoted Ozeki have to get in line. O2W for Terunofuji. In the same basho we had 3 Komusubis (Natsu 2000), Musouyama was promoted to Ozeki after a 12-3 jun-yusho. Straight to Ozeki W, leapfrogging over both Chiyotaikai (8-7) and Takanonami(7-8). EXACTLY the same case now with Goueidou (8-7) and Kotoshougiku(7-8) except that Terunofuji had a 12-3 Yusho.. Free tip for all you GTB players out there.. It seems 15 years ago they did this sometimes, but the last 13 Ozeki promotees were all placed at as the bottom of the Ozeki pool. Including, say, Ama/Harumafuji in Hatsu 2009, even though Kaio was kadoban. Or Kotoshogiku in Kyushu 2011, even though Kotooshu was kadoban - they even moved makekoshi Kotooshu up from O2W to O2E. So I doubt it will be any different with Terunofuji. The difference of the O- with the K-situation is that there is no recent precedent. In the past 22 years, all S1W with a 7-8 record all ended up at K. Most at K1, in the late 1990s a few at K2. One has to go back to 1992 - 23 years - to find an S1W with 7-8 at M in the next basho. But one also has to go back to 1974 - 41 years - to find a 9-6 M1W who did not make it to sanyaku. Based on this Myogiryu and Tochinoshin both have good reasons to be hopeful, but let's see. I have no good sense what will happen, but hope to get three Ks.

Disclaimer: I don't consider myself among the more versed. But since I did look up the last banzuke with three Komosubi (Natsu 2000), I will say that that was exactly the situation then: 3Y, 4O, 2S, 3K. So maybe we have a chance ;-) Thanks for checking, mate.

Kintamayama, as always a heartfelt "thank you" for the joy and entertainment of the past two weeks. During basho time, checking your videos is typically the third thing I do in the day, after getting up and making coffee.

I would put Myogiryu at M1. With both M1 at 9-6 it would be a shame to have Myogiruy até K and Tochinosin as M1E Agreed, but this is not what I was talking about. My wish-banzuke is Takarafuji K1E, Tochinoshin K1W, Myogiryu K2W.

I didn't know that the three Yokozunas are Intai ! Congratulations to Kisenosato at the top of the next banzuke ;) I don't think that Terunofuji will be O1W.... and I don't believe that Aoiyama will be M2E There was no point in stating the obvious so I just skipped them as they are not going anywhere right now. I wonder if you don't see yusho winning Teru at O1W, which of Goeido and Giku you consider more worthy of being O1W. Both are one of the most miserable Ozeki in history, have not won a single yusho and have not won more than 9 in a year or so. As for Aoiyama, not that I am impartial but in my books 9-6 from M6W is kind of more than 10-5 from M8W...apart from Takayasu I see nobody else really worthy of being M2E. Newly promoted Ozeki have to get in line. O2W for Terunofuji.

I for my part would like to see three Komusubi; Myogiryu, Takarafuji and Tochinoshin all deserve a sanyaku slot. For the more versed here, wouldn't the fact that there are three Yokozuna now but four Ozeki (and two Sekiwake) give the Kyokai an argument to balance the banzuke with a K2W?