Kotonosato

We may not be statisticians, but we are Germans which is close enough if you look at various Sumo Games. (Laughing...) I don't follow the sumo games, but I'm curious: Does someone with a thorough knowledge of statistics win more often than not? Or are you foiled by chance events just as often as the rest of us? Do you tend to make predictions based completely on the stats, or are you constantly tweaking your predictions based on intuitions and observations (e.g. "that rikishi looked so good last basho, he is bound to win more often than the stats suggest"). Can you make money gambling?

This I can agree to with 100% certainty. :-) May I ask what everyone's specialty is? It's clear that you're all very familiar with statistics. Assuming you're not actually statisticians, what kind of research do you do?

Maybe there should be an "Asa in NFL" thread created. Anyway, I don't know much about football, but I assume the kind of speed necessary to play in the NFL has to extend beyond the width of the dohyo. I think he'd have to retrain extensively, build up stamina, and acquire a different kind of speed all together.

Yes, but you need a baseline for that statement to have some value. That's what Randomitsuki was trying to do (by comparing the empirical results to a baseline of random results), only the results weren't showing what he expected after all. We are way outside my area of expertise here, but let me see if I understand the logic of Randomitsuki's choice of baseline. To me it seems obvious that 8-7 and 7-8 are the most random results possible. But these are by definition the least streaky results you can find outside of 15-0 and 0-15. That is, if Event 1 is a loss, then there is a better than 50% chance that Event 2 will be a win. It doesn't remain a 1 in 2 chance, as if we're tossing a coin 15 times. We know the results have to reach either 8-7 or 7-8. (I think this is what Doitsuyama is referring to in Post 7 above.) Somebody help me with the math here, but I thought the only time we have a 50-50 chance that Event 2 is going to be the same as Event 1 is in the case of 10-5 and 5-10 results. I think the two-thirds mark should be the baseline. If the results of 10-5 and 5-10 rikishi differ a great deal from 50%, then you can whether sumo is streaky or not. Does that make any sense, at least intuitively, if not mathematically?

That won't happen. Wakanohana III loved football his whole life and failed miserably in the football world (a la Akebono in K1). One of the medical types here can give you some physical reasons for why sumos can't play football, but the first obvious one is that the yokozuna is simply way too small.

Can you give a few more details as to your reasoning? Right now I'm not sure I even understand the implied argument sufficiently to mount a response... What I mean is that if Randomitsuki does the same analysis with 9-6 and 6-9 rikishi, then 10-5 and 5-10 rikishi, etc., of course the number of repeat events will overtake the non-repeating events. As you approach 15-0 and 0-15 it becomes streak city.

I think there was a methodical mistake escaping you. The 7-8 and 8-7 scores you chose weren't exactly random, but picked after the fact which supports alternate events since it gets more difficult to reach a final score of 7-8 or 8-7 with each repeat event. The conclusion then must be that with the exception of 7-8 and 8-7 rikishi, sumo is extremely streaky.

There were a couple of posts to the same effect on the SML after Musashimaru retired. I mean, to each their own, but I couldn't help but think, "so you were watching this sumo stuff for nearly a decade and you couldn't find anything else in it that was going to hold your interest after Akebono and Maru retire?" I guess having a fellow countryman practicing the sport is the kind of thing that can make an otherwise completely foreign sport interesting to some people. I'm sure the majority of Mongolians on this list would not watch sumo at all if it weren't for the success (or at least presence) of the Mongolian rikishi.

Why will we be angry? We know he's not going to be there months in advance. It's not like those that had been waiting for sumo to come to their hometown for the first time in 50 years and were disappointed to hear that the yokozuna is too injured to come. AND THEN they see the guy playing soccer on vacation somewhere. Now that's upsetting. Actually, I know many people who think this way in Japan. I never really understood them till now. Mostly they are in their 50s and they say they used to be big sumo fans. When I'm at their houses during a honbasho, I mention that "it's on right now" hoping they'll turn on the TV for me. Often they oblige, but they also tell me they don't watch it anymore themselves. They quit watching after Takanohana retired. I never tell them to their faces, but I think "So you weren't really a fan of sumo at all. You were just a Takanohana fan." I guess it's natural for some Asa fans not to be interested in sumo after all.

Leak implies that they didn't want to have it go public. I'd say this was as intentional as can be, just like the elbow surgery story. I'd say they are trying to garner sympathy. I love this icon by the way. :-/ It's definitely Asashoryu. I just can't tell if it's before or after the medication.

I think the last thing on the Kyokai's collective mind was yokozuna promotion. Anyway, even though Kotomitsuki can beat most opponents right now, there is no way his mental game will allow him to win two more yusho this year. Not with Hakuho handling the pressure so well.

I don't think they'd have a problem with it. He's just not allowed to have any fun there. (Sign of approval...)

It wasn't just here. The SML dealt with the situation equally weakly. There are at least a couple of people there who would seem to say that if Asashoryu took out a knife and stabbed another rikishi during a bout, that putting him in jail would be because he's not Japanese. As far as I know, there are no Mongolians on the SML, but the "Asa can do no wrong -- the Kyokai is out to get him" mentality is still there. As for 'not knowing anything about sumo', I think the issue may really be "not knowing anything about Japan'.

That it was news in Japan is news to me. I never saw it in the media here. I suppose those if I were Bulgarian I might have been more tuned into it and caught it. Good point, Nishi. I had heard about the nurses story on-and-off for quite a while, but now that I think of it, it was probably all from foreign newscasts. Perhaps Kotooshu was just being diplomatic (much to his credit). :-O

The fact is that very few rikishi in history have been as dominating as Asashoryu. Hakuho is not that overwhelming, but he is certainly not an 11-4 rikishi. There is no reason, once he gets used to his role, that he will not be at least 13-2 every basho, with many yusho scattered throughout his career.

It wouldn't be without precedent. Add Maedayama to the Futahaguro pile of drummed-out yokozuna.

Why is it doubtful? If anything it's the opposite. He is developing as a rikishi all the time. Getting ones style doesn't mean you can't learn new things.... ...just look at all the changes in Hakuho and Asashoru's sumo over the years to see that rikishi are constanly adjusting and trying to add new things. I think it's probably best not to choose the two yokozuna as representatives of how rikishi change their tactics. Considering they are simply THE best rikishi, maybe your point is that if you can change your tactics, you will become a yokozuna. The other 99% can't? Let's look at people like Miyabiyama who stagnated long ago and despite years of trying cannot regain his old status. Or Chiyotaikai who spent most of his career at a plateau because he could not change his ways. Or Dejima, whose injury-weakened technique will not allow him to return to his former glory, but is still incapable of changing.

Bit of a teeth fetish have we? I was gonna say 'floss mania'.

By rumor, do you mean it was "reported" in one of the tabloids?

I don't know if 'stern' is the right word. On the news he looked subdued. Maybe even worried. That's not something I'd ever expected to see from him. The closest thing we've seen to it is the shocked look he used to get after some of those rare losses.

You sound like you've seen the note. Here it is: Unfortunately, it's too small for me to see. Assuming it is Asa's, why do you have it? What is blackened out at the top?

No. In the video, it was clear that he had a proper mage. It just sipped down with all the running around.

I always thought that cobblers were shoemakers. Someone care to translate?

You sound like you've seen the note. There are two points about these reports that I've never really understood: 1. They don't come from "kyokai doctors" they're from the rikishis' personal physicians. Does anybody ever wonder why they almost always stipulate either three or six weeks to recover? Three weeks is the perfect length of time to get out of the rest of the basho, but still prepare for the next one. Six weeks is the perfect length of time to get out of the basho, the jungyo, and still have an excuse for "not enough training" for the next basho. 2. It's illegal for a doctor to discuss the medical records of his patients. I assume it is also illegal for the kyokai to publicly discuss them. Then who is reporting this info to the press? If it's the rikishi themselves, they could say anything they want and no one would legally be able to contradict it publicly. I don't know anything about back fractures, but I assumed you could not run around, fall flat on your face and then roll around on the ground laughing all the while. Asashoryu must be very strong. (Insert ironic emoticon here.)

Or maybe Kotooshu (with one more henka). (Whistling...)