Dairenzu

Always fun and difficult to try and guess how the inheritances will play out, assuming Fujinoshin follows through here. Jinmaku has been in Takasago ichimon for a long time and it is such a small ichimon with a while before another connected title comes through. I wonder if one of the Kokonoe guys would be in line, perhaps Chiyomaru who is still competitive at the top of Makushita but doesn't look to be very threatening at getting back to Juryo. I have Chiyomaru below my kabu cutoff but perhaps the timing could work out for him here (or for Chiyonoo, although his resume is not even close at the current logjam standard). Maybe more likely is for it to get lent to the holder of Endo or Shimanoumi's title and then passed out later to Chiyoshoma or even Asanoyama?

Don't know if its been mentioned, but the thing I am most invested in outside the yusho race is Sadanoumi holding on to his makuuchi spot. He is at 59 M basho and definitely seems like a guy who would like to be a shisho. If he does go down he would have a great chance at getting back up, but at his age you never know. Yesterday was a huge huge win and one more should wrap it up.

Yeah, lots of possibilities for Katanaomi, but they aren't acting like a stable that plans to be around in its current form for a long time and Tamaasuka leaving confirms that a bit for me. Tamawashi is obviously qualified to break out his own stable and could take what's left to a new location, either as Kataonami or under a new name. It is one of the longer continually operated beyas, but Tamawashi surely isn't going to wait 13 years to take it over (unless he is still wrestling then which I can't fully discount the possibility!).

Quite sudden and anticlimactic resolution for Otake-beya, I guess it makes sense that there was so little speculation. I initially expected there would be a desire to keep the stable line unbroken to ensure Oho could eventually take it over, but I lost confidence in this plan considering an assistant oyakata was never brought in sooner and they haven't recruited a new rikishi in over five years. I also thought if they did transfer in a new shisho they might go with someone a little older, but I'd guess there is an agreement Tamaasuka will step aside when Oho retires, whenever that is. Good opportunity for Tamaasuka to build something to pass on, and he must not have had much to do at Kataonami anyway. Seems to increase the likelihood that Kataonami will fold if Tamawashi ever retires.

Surprising to me that Ginseizan chose to retire now, rather than wait one more basho and retire with Otake oyakata and probably some of their other older rikishi. Wonder if only him retiring now means anything about what will happen with Otake-beya over the next two months, or maybe it was personal and he just didn't want to be at that last senshuraku party.

If they want to be purely mechanistic about it, if he were to go to M6w or M7w (with Oshoma taking the other), that would make it so there wouldn't have to be any over-promotions except for (probably) Hakuoho in the whole banzuke. As you noted in your video, a healthy Daiesho would be expected to be an absolute wrecking ball at M11-12, just outside the joi could be a better spot for his expected ability on return. Of the four cases in the last 10 years or so, two were guys who had just leapt to Sekiwake from M6 (Myogiryu in 2014 and Okinoumi in 2015) and two guys who were beginning long-term drops (Asanoyama in 2021 and Terunofuji in 2017). Not saying at all you are wrong of course, but the precedent is a little thin at least. I also think, on principle, he should be ahead of Oshoma - not showing up at all was better than whatever the hell Oshoma was doing out there.

Wondering how far people think Daieisho will fall? Spiffy had him down to something like M12 without much comment, but it looks like there has been a lot of variance in how far sanyaku wrestlers drop after a full basho kyujo. I'm kind of almost disbelieving the query that there has only been two 0-win S1Es in the last 40 years, and only 10 total from anywhere in Sekiwake in the 2000s. It is true the four most recent all went to M10-11, but the one's before those were all to M6-8 and if you back further it looks really random. Given how consistent Daieisho has been, this is a one basho kyujo (as far as we know), and the soft spot in the banzuke for September looks to be around M6, I'm thinking he might hold up higher than expected?

I can see the logic in that its historically rare for Kotoeiho's resume to get promoted to makuuchi, but it's even more rare for the five guys most people have falling to Juryo to not take the drop. I have Kotoeiho at M16w and would also be surprised if he doesn't move up. For Makushita, I initially had Wakanosho landing in the joi, but I guess wishful thinking on my part and wonder if it his placement will be irrelevant anyway. Lisfranc injuries can be quite nasty and he could easily miss several more tournaments. I think the Makushita projection here looks pretty rock solid, it should be an fascinating tournament!

I've already had a change of heart about the Kabu situation. While there is definitely a crunch, I don't feel confident anymore that there is a crisis or that there are changing factors exacerbating the crunch. In delving again into the recent history of changes, its hard to identify a cause for why the distribution has become so lopsided (for example nearly half of the currently held Kabu are held by wrestlers born in the years 1970-1976 or 1984-1986). It seems like there should be a normal distribution, skewed slightly to younger Oyakata, but it is reasonable that over a long period of time, you would start to see clusters through randomly distributed events and more or less successful birth year cohorts. Perhaps those will revert to closer to a mean over time on their own. The age 70 extensionshould itself normalize, and only have the impact of stretching out the birth years to perhaps eventually smooth out some of those peaks and valleys. I found @Asashosakari theory that the sanyo system was implemented because of the opposite issue of what exists now to be convincing, and to take it another logical step forward to believe that the NSK prefer a structure that is more challenging to access than this period where so many Oyakata have modest makuuchi achievements. As discussed here a lot, creating a higher barrier for entry isn't necessarily the optimal way to bring in the best trainers, mentors, administrators, recruiters, real estate facilitators, meal planners etc - but I do think having more incentive for all sekitori to reach milestones and build their resume does improve the integrity of the competition. And the 'crisis' is pretty limited - by my sketch out of long-term Kabu movement, no sanyaku guy would be denied a Kabu, and there will be a couple of spaces for non-sanyaku. The tightness may make the timing difficult, but its hardly new for guys to hang on longer than they should or leave a little early, and to buy sanyo out of their dotage. It would feel unfair for someone like Kagayaki, who looks really washed to me and I have as the top guy left out, not getting a title when his resume is much better than a lot of the current Oyakata. If he had been born 15 years earlier or later, it might have been easy for him - but I think that sort of fatalism is not really seen as a problem needing fixing? Thinking again about Enho in light of Isegamaha's comments, and wondering if the NSK will allow or prevent succession to maintain a Kabu beya line at the expense of more successful guys. Like if Tamanoi is able to get Fujiazuma a title since they have no other prospects at the moment, or the move of all those sanyo to Oitekaze means a big push to get as many as they can of their 7 current 30+ guys who are eligible. If so, that will of course threaten guys up the chain, with Chiyoshoma being the most vulnerable by my reckoning. Of course, its just as likely unexpected slots will open so maybe it won't be as hard as it seems now. Isegehama did mention younger guys too getting Miyagino and its way easier to see how to make it happen for Hakuoho than it would be for Enho. Ichiyamamoto and Churanoumi seem in a lot of danger of missing out too, especially with Oshoma and Kinbozan now probably passing them by in peak rank. Very curious to see what happens with the next domino (after whatever happens to Otake-beya, which I feel like won't lead to any Kabu shenanigans for a bit). @Raishu I've got a different guess for Minezaki, I have it going to Tamawashi. I just don't see how he can pass this opportunity by even if he is still doing well enough at the moment. Five more healthy basho would give him one at least one ironman record I believe (consecutive makuuchi bouts). If Takayasu is determined to hang it up next year and doesn't want to have the uncertainty of the 3-year Toshoyori, that will be interesting data point to see how these might be distributed going forward, if we get much information about how it goes down.

Been digging as deeply as I can, and this current Kabu Crunch seems pretty extreme, although I don't know how the numbers have played out historically. But having read this entire thread (all the way back to 2007!) it feels like the strain keeps growing with the healthier post-rikishi oyakata life, the end of COVID restrictions and betting crackdowns limiting malfeasance retirements, and waiting for the sanyo extension system to catch up. By my count, there are currently 39 kabu-eligible rikishi, and we only have one vacant and one new guaranteed full retirement over the next two years (not counting loaned Kabu). Of those 39 guys, I'd subjectively say about 20 seem on their last legs or sufficiently old that two years would be a long time and one injury or drop in form away from intai (and I would say only 3 seem like they wouldn't likely be close to retirement state in five years, when the next sort of large tranche of available kabu are guaranteed). The Miyagino retirement didn't even really help, except I guess keeping Asahifuji from snaffling up one of the few titles that might be able to be wrestled away early. The more marginal resume guys seem pretty screwed, as do all of the current kabu borrowers. Like even if Enho got to 30 sekitori basho, his resume would be extremely hard to justify, no matter how popular he is. I know there are many, many unknowns in what factors will go into how those few openings will be doled out ad I have no idea which current rikishi want to stay in the company. And, obviously, this system is always full of surprises and intrigue. In the short term, I'd think all the current ex-Ozeki's who are nearing retirement age/performance will need to take 3-year Toshiyori status to help the crunch a bit and loanees like Shotenro and Akiseyama should be getting ready for post-sumo life. I'm definitely also very curious how much the NSK will try to keep titles in current ichimon, or if it will be a free for all. And I was struck by Tochinoshin bringing up the need for more older oyakata to retire and make space for younger guys, and wonder how prevalent that view is and if the NSK would try to push some of the less productive middle-aged guys out early. I feel like this thread (and forum) isn't big on whole-cloth speculating, so I'll keep all my conspiracy theories to myself!