New Juryo for Natsu

[Reonito]

Looks like only three promotions: Chiyosakae, Fujiseiun, and Tokihayate:

 

[Reonito]

Kawazoe and Shiden got screwed. Tsushimanada is the first 4-11 J9 who gets to stay since 1963, when Juryo had 18 ranks. Shimanoumi is only the 3rd of 43 5-10 J11's to stay up in the same timeframe; Chiyosakae just got sent down in January with the same rank and record.

[Reonito]

This was Shiden's 3rd 6-1 score while ranked just outside the promotion zone. Natsu will be his 9th time in the promotion zone. He went 3-4 in 7 of 8 previous chances. And of course we all know what happened the one time he went 5-2.

[Seiyashi]

Definitely a very suspect non-promotion, for which I can only think of two things: 1) Kawazoe and Shiden are probably not super endearing to the shimpanbu given who their shisho is and what they previously did, respectively, and 2) is there some unofficial quota on shinjūryō promotion nowadays given that there's like only one artisan making shimekomi? Even so there's only three shin-jūryō which is definitely not unprecedented, so...

The legitimate explanation is of course going 4-0 then 4-3 is not a good look for promotion, while a 6-1 outside the promotion zone doesn't really justify leaping everyone else, but it feels like a very weak post-hoc rationalisation to me.

[Reonito]

2 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Definitely a very suspect non-promotion, for which I can only think of two things: 1) Kawazoe and Shiden are probably not super endearing to the shimpanbu given who their shisho is and what they previously did, respectively, and 2) is there some unofficial quota on shinjūryō promotion nowadays given that there's like only one artisan making shimekomi? Even so there's only three shin-jūryō which is definitely not unprecedented, so...

The legitimate explanation is of course going 4-0 then 4-3 is not a good look for promotion, while a 6-1 outside the promotion zone doesn't really justify leaping everyone else, but it feels like a very weak post-hoc rationalisation to me.

JSA: "we'd rather see this guy in the salaried ranks for another basho"

Edited March 29, 2023 by Reonito

[Seiyashi]

Just now, Reonito said:

JSA: "we'd rather see this guy in the salaried ranks for another basho."

 

This is just BS. By total WL he'd be deep in makushita by now - those are some super light demotions.

[Katooshu]

My frustration over Kawazoe's lack of promotion is tempered by the three promotees being likable, feel good underdogs.

Chiyosakae of course had spent 14 years in sumo and was already 32 in his juryo debut, persevering when I think many would have given up on his sekitori propsects years ago.

Fujiseiun was an unremarkable college competitor who did much of his collegiate sumo in the B-class league, failing to make the slightest of noise.

Tokihayate has overcome injury and a relative lack of size to achieve sekitorihood

I hope all of them do well, and kick Shimanoumi to the curb to make way for Kawazoe next time!

Edited March 29, 2023 by Katooshu

[Tsuchinoninjin]

Is Shimanoumi's thing somehow related to Izutsu myoseki? I can't think of why though - Toyonoshima's been gone. Finding a building / backers?

[Churaumi]

I don't feel too bad about Shiden, I was a big fan of his in his Shiba days. The top of makushita is the arguably the most competitive place in sumo. There were 10-11 good, motivated guys ahead of him. Hopefully he makes the cut next basho and I finally get to see him in juryo after all these years.

[Kamitsuumi]

I always thought the line for promotion at Ms5 was 6-1, barring extremely bad juryo records, so what happened to Kawazoe wasn't too unexpected.

As for Shiden though, there was one precendent (Hatsu 2015) where Azumaryu at J12e 6-9 got demoted in favour of Ishiura at Ms6w 6-1.

[Sumo Spiffy]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Definitely a very suspect non-promotion, for which I can only think of two things: 1) Kawazoe and Shiden are probably not super endearing to the shimpanbu given who their shisho is and what they previously did, respectively, and 2) is there some unofficial quota on shinjūryō promotion nowadays given that there's like only one artisan making shimekomi? Even so there's only three shin-jūryō which is definitely not unprecedented, so...

We're getting into territory I don't know much about, so maybe this is a dumb question, but from what I can tell, Shiden wrestles for Kise stable. What'd they do?

Also, I can't remember where I saw it (I thought it was Sumo Prime Time, but if so I can't find the video anymore), but I saw something recently that said the artisan and his team only have time to make three new mawashis between bashos. I can't imagine that's an actual reason for anything, but there you go.

[Sumo Spiffy]

3 minutes ago, Kamitsuumi said:

I always thought the line for promotion at Ms5 was 6-1, barring extremely bad juryo records, so what happened to Kawazoe wasn't too unexpected.

As for Shiden though, there was one precendent (Hatsu 2015) where Azumaryu at J12e 6-9 got demoted in favour of Ishiura at Ms6w 6-1.

We have to be careful talking about who got demoted for who. Azumaryu was obviously the last to be demoted, but Kizenryu had a weaker promotion case than Ishiura. If you want to make a one-for-one comparison, that seems like the most appropriate guy to look at.

[Seiyashi]

1 minute ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

We're getting into territory I don't know much about, so maybe this is a dumb question, but from what I can tell, Shiden wrestles for Kise stable. What'd they do?

Also, I can't remember where I saw it (I thought it was Sumo Prime Time, but if so I can't find the video anymore), but I saw something recently that said the artisan and his team only have time to make three new mawashis between bashos. I can't imagine that's an actual reason for anything, but there you go.

Re Kawazoe, I wonder if someone doesn't want Hakuhō to get too much of a swollen head.

Re Shiden, he's a bit of a joke being the only sekitori not to wrestle as a sekitori. I didn't think at the time it had anything to do with Kise, but now that you mention it, what with the yakuza thing a few years back and now with the gambling from last year, I wouldn't be surprised if Kise was looked askance at.

[Katooshu]

30 minutes ago, Kamitsuumi said:

I always thought the line for promotion at Ms5 was 6-1, barring extremely bad juryo records, so what happened to Kawazoe wasn't too unexpected.

As for Shiden though, there was one precendent (Hatsu 2015) where Azumaryu at J12e 6-9 got demoted in favour of Ishiura at Ms6w 6-1.

Kawazoe was Ms3

[Tigerboy1966]

1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Also, I can't remember where I saw it (I thought it was Sumo Prime Time, but if so I can't find the video anymore), but I saw something recently that said the artisan and his team only have time to make three new mawashis between bashos. I can't imagine that's an actual reason for anything, but there you go.

Shiden should have one already- and it hasn't even been used.

[Kaito]

I don't feel bad for Kawazoe, since he was unambiguously beaten by Chiyosakae early on and benefitted from a blown call. He produced 3-4 sumo and didn't look ready to me.

In the end, Shiden was the only one who did beat Chiyosakae, and they both looked by far the most worthy of moving up.

I don't hate Tsushimanada getting another chance, but honestly, I wish they wouldn't hesitate to demote people out of juryo when the results warrant it. Shimanoumi's worn out his welcome.

[Chartorenji]

5 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

This is just BS. By total WL he'd be deep in makushita by now - those are some super light demotions.

Right? 5-10 at J11 is insane. Even if Kawazoe looked poor, he or Shiden deserve that spot over him. 

[Akinomaki]

5 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Is Shimanoumi's thing somehow related to Izutsu myoseki? I can't think of why though - Toyonoshima's been gone. Finding a building / backers?

He needs plenty more sekitori basho to reopen Izutsu-beya some day

[Koorifuu]

Shimanoumi's long story of consecutive underdemotions goes even further back than @Reonito's table. In the last few years, he's rarely been minimally convincing when he wins, too. People joke about Kagayaki, which is bad on itself, but I feel this is actually way worse.

Forgot who it was, but he's got defenders on his forum - there were poor reactions last time I said he didn't really deserve his sekitori slot.

Anyway, I have long had no doubts he's being protected due to his uncertain heya inheritance worthiness status.

Tsushimanada lucked out due to circumstance because, on a spur of self-awareness, the commitee knew they couldn't possibly give him the stick while saving Shimanoumi without raising plenty of eyebrows and/or questions.

Edited March 29, 2023 by Koorifuu

[themistyseas]

45 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

Anyway, I have long had no doubts he's being protected due to his uncertain heya inheritance worthiness status.

Still seems a bit of a weird one owing to the fact he's already met the sekitori requirement, so even if he'd been demoted a few months ago he'd likely be able to take up the name if it is in fact promised to him. And it's not like he'll ever meet the branch out requirement anyway.

It's hard to work out what the end game is for him. I do kind of wonder if there will be some kind of arrangement where he needs to bring the name back into the Tokitsukaze family, like Kotonishiki did with Asahiyama. Maybe the play here is that he is the successor to Michinoku (in name) which becomes renamed Izutsu, and then Kakuryu technically branches out to start whatever his heya is called (Michinoku?) and brings the Michinoku rikishi.

[shumitto]

Of course Shimanoumi deserved his sekitori slot at some point. This is not a collective sport that allows one to hide his mediocrity behind a star-studded assembly and be successful. Even banzuke luck or outright help can only bring you so far. It is also obvious these days are long gone. Why he and Tsushimanada were allowed to stay is very, very hard to explain.

[Tsuchinoninjin]

4 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

He needs plenty more sekitori basho to reopen Izutsu-beya some day

Ah, I thought he already achieved makuuchi numbers to inherit but I guess since it is already closed that doesn’t apply.

[Ripe]

On 29/03/2023 at 12:43, themistyseas said:

Still seems a bit of a weird one owing to the fact he's already met the sekitori requirement, so even if he'd been demoted a few months ago he'd likely be able to take up the name if it is in fact promised to him. And it's not like he'll ever meet the branch out requirement anyway.

It's hard to work out what the end game is for him. I do kind of wonder if there will be some kind of arrangement where he needs to bring the name back into the Tokitsukaze family, like Kotonishiki did with Asahiyama. Maybe the play here is that he is the successor to Michinoku (in name) which becomes renamed Izutsu, and then Kakuryu technically branches out to start whatever his heya is called (Michinoku?) and brings the Michinoku rikishi.

Does he meet the requirements to inherit a heya? I know that he is nowhere near meeting requirements for opening a new heya, but what are requirements for inheriting one?

I think I read somewhere that there are two different sets, one for inheriting by family member (son, son-in-law, brother, etc.) and one for inheritance by non-family members but I don't know what the actual numbers are...

[Muhomatsu]

To open a new stable you need one of the following:

1) To be ranked Ozeki or Yokozuna.

2) 25 or more sanyaku ranked tournaments in total.

3) 60 or more makunouchi tournaments ranked in total (10-years in the top division).

To take over an existing stable you should have the following:

More than 12 tournaments in top division (2 years) and/or more than 20 tournaments as sekitori.  

Rules to assume a kabu - but not establish a new heya:

1) Highest rank is komusubi or sekiwake

2) Total of 20 or more basho in the top division or 28 basho as a sekitori.  It was 30 basho until 2013, when Hochiyama was allowed to borrow a kabu with only 28 tournaments as a sekitori.

Under these conditions, Shimanoumi qualifies to take on the kabu (which is likely waiting for him).  He has 19 tournaments in the top division and 31 total as sekitori (through Haru 2023).  He does not qualify to branch out and form his own stable. He could inherit an existing one.

Those that can branch out and form their own stable at this point are:  Terunofuji, Takayasu, Tochinoshin, Shodai, Mitakeumi, Takakeisho, and Asanoyama - by virtue of being ranked Ozeki or Yokozuna.  Tochinoshin is not eligible to be a kabu holder, since he does not have Japanese citizenship - so he is "disqualified" on that basis.  Terunofuji will take over Isegahama and not likely branch out.  I do not think we have anyone who qualifies with 25 sanyaku basho.  The 60 total makunouchi basho qualification (without being ozeki or yokozuna) qualifies Takarafuji, Aoiyama, and Myogiryu.  That is all that could currently open a new stable.

Folks who could inherit include:  Sadanoumi, Tokushoryu, Fujiazuma, Nishikigi, Chiyomaru, Chiyonokuni, Azumaryu (still not Japanese, so disqualified on citizenship), Kotoeko, Ryuden, Daieisho, Kagayaki, Akiseyama, Chiyoshoma (Mongolian), Kyokutaisei, Endo, Hidenoumi, Takanosho, Chiyonoo, Onosho, Terutsuyoshi, Meisei, Ichinojo, Tsurugisho, Abi, Hokutofuji, Ishiura, Shimanoumi, Wakamotoharu, Daishomaru, Tobizaru, Daiamami, Kiribayama (Mongolian), Wakatakakage, Kotonowaka, Mitoryu (Mongolian), and Hoshoryu (Mongolian). Others who could only assume a kabu if they inherit a stable, as otherwise do not qualify, are:  Ura, Kotoshoho, Kitaharima, Yago, Akua, Kagamio (just retired and left Kyokai), Yoshiazuma, Churanoumi, and Hakuyozan.  Out of these Endo is said to have acquired Kitajin share, Shimanoumi is linked to Izutsu, and rumors abound that Onosho is destined to be Otowayama. 

Also qualifying for a kabu based on 28 sekitori tournaments only are Daishoho (Mongolian) and Enho.

There are a lot of potential oyakata in the current ranks - and not a lot of open spaces - so I expect most of these to depart the Kyokai.

[Ripe]

5 hours ago, Muhomatsu said:

To take over an existing stable you should have the following:

More than 12 tournaments in top division (2 years) and/or more than 20 tournaments as sekitori. 

Those numbers were introduced due to Kanechika so he could take over Miyagino following his marriage to previous Oyakata's daughter... but I think those numbers only apply to those who are family to previous Oyakata and that for those who are not family the requirements are bit higher. Probably the same as the ones for getting a kabu, but I'm not sure.

Also, keep in mind that Hociyama is still listed as borrower so it's possible you still need 30 basho as sekitori to own a kabu...

Edited March 30, 2023 by Ripe