Basho Talk - Natsu Basho 2016 +++ Spoiler Alert! +++

[Atenzan]

Meanwhile Ura clinches his kachikoshi with 7 different kimarite used. Has any sekitori ever gone 8 for 8?

[Asashosakari]

Everyone of the Ozeki on that list sorta peaked at ozeki and then held out at 8-7 for a great many years though, while yokozuna are expected to retire when they can only manage an 8-7. So the list isn't completely accurate.

It arguably overstates the difference between ozeki and yokozuna for that reason, though. An ozeki decline phase tends to feature loads of MK, 8-7's and 9-6's, depressing their career winning percentages, while a yokozuna decline phase usually either includes lots of missed tournaments (with little effect on the W-L record) or gets cut short altogether by an early retirement. A number of "career ozeki" looked quite yokozuna-worthy at their best, they just didn't put together that one excellent run that would have netted them the rope.

[Dapeng]

Kisanosato goes 10-0 two bashos in a row. He honestly has that Yokozuna look and demeanor this basho.

He has been extremely calm and collected the whole time and didn't panic today either. Could he actually pull it off?

We all know he usually crumbles in the second week but we are way into the second week now and he doesn't show the signs he typically shows. If Kisenosato wins the Yusho then he will most likely be promoted. But Ikioi will obviously crush him tomorrow, crush him and the dreams of Japanese Yokozuna. Say what you will though, each of Kisenosato's bouts are the most exciting thing right now.

As to Kise's yokozuna run, my feeling is that a yusho 13-2, or a non-yusho 14-1 including a win over Hakuho will be marginally OK for promotion. But a non-yusho 14-1 without beating Hakuho (allowing Hakuho going 15-0) will probably not OK.

[Jyuunomori]

Meanwhile Ura clinches his kachikoshi with 7 different kimarite used. Has any sekitori ever gone 8 for 8?

Check Osunaarashi's Kimarite last basho, he also got 7 different kimarite in 8 wins. Not sure if anyone got 8 for 8.

[Doitsuyama]

Kisanosato goes 10-0 two bashos in a row. He honestly has that Yokozuna look and demeanor this basho.

He has been extremely calm and collected the whole time and didn't panic today either. Could he actually pull it off?

We all know he usually crumbles in the second week but we are way into the second week now and he doesn't show the signs he typically shows. If Kisenosato wins the Yusho then he will most likely be promoted. But Ikioi will obviously crush him tomorrow, crush him and the dreams of Japanese Yokozuna. Say what you will though, each of Kisenosato's bouts are the most exciting thing right now.

As to Kise's yokozuna run, my feeling is that a yusho 13-2, or a non-yusho 14-1 including a win over Hakuho will be marginally OK for promotion. But a non-yusho 14-1 without beating Hakuho (allowing Hakuho going 15-0) will probably not OK.

No, a non-yusho 14-1 will not result in a promotion. After Futahaguro they will probably never ever promote a rikishi to yokozuna without a single career yusho. Expecially because he is Japanese - imagine the pressure on him to "finally win a yusho" after even getting a yokozuna promotion. Nope, not happening. A 13-2 yusho after a 13-2 jun-yusho might just happen - after Goeido's ozeki promotion anything is possible, just not a yokozuna promotion without a yusho.

[Katooshu]

Anyone else have a chuckle at Aoiyama-Ichinojo?

All that thrusting and then Aoiyama falls on his face. Ichinojo seemed to win just by standing there.

Edited May 17, 2016 by Katooshu

[Jyuunomori]

Anyone else have a chuckle at Aoiyama-Ichinojo?

All that thrusting and then Aoiyama falls on his face. Ichinojo seemed to win just by standing there.

I thought it was hilarious. You can see Aoiyama start to incline forward as he kept thrusting at Ichinojo. Ichinojo was being pushed back ever so slightly and Aoiyama never adjusted his legs, he just stood there and leaned forwards till there was nothing to hit. Comical.

[Kotogouryuu]

Kisenosato vs Kotoshogiku

Kisenosato has had trouble against Kotoshogiku, but he managed to stay a little off center so he wasn't caught in the full bumpetybump. Kudos to Kotoshokigu, as well: He clearly has more stamina and balance than before, making that a really exciting match.

[Tenshinhan]

Meanwhile Ura clinches his kachikoshi with 7 different kimarite used. Has any sekitori ever gone 8 for 8?

Check Osunaarashi's Kimarite last basho, he also got 7 different kimarite in 8 wins. Not sure if anyone got 8 for 8.

Aminishiki got his kachikoshi with 8 different kimarite in March 2015.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=89&b=201503

[kumoryu]

Kisanosato goes 10-0 two bashos in a row. He honestly has that Yokozuna look and demeanor this basho.

He has been extremely calm and collected the whole time and didn't panic today either. Could he actually pull it off?

We all know he usually crumbles in the second week but we are way into the second week now and he doesn't show the signs he typically shows.

Maybe he finally saw that sports psychologist I've been talking about for years...

I don't know what has happened, but he has somehow managed to deal with his head, which has always been his single greatest enemy. I thought the Geek had him twice today but the Kid managed to get out of it both times and then pull off the win. I would love for him to pull this off.

A while ago Nishinoshima said the only viewpoint that counts in sumo is the long view. So I have been doing a bit of research on the database and have come up with an interesting comparison, as follows. Counting only those matches competed in (ie, not including kyujo records), the top four rikishi have the following records at their current rank:

Winning percentage at the rank of Ozeki:

Kisenosato = 70.25%

Winning percentage at the rank of Yokozuna:

Hak = 89.2%

Harumafuji = 73.53%

Kakaryu = 70.8%

And for the sake of a historical comparison, the previous 13 Yokozunae:

Asashoryu = 83.57%

Akebono = 77.98%

Asahifuji = 72.45%

Hokotoumi = 77.4%

Musashimaru = 77.7%

Takanohana = 82.34%

Wakanohana III = 63.54%

Futahaguro = 70.47%

Onokuni = 67.01%

Takanosato = 71.97%

Chiyonofuji = 85.61%

Meinoumi = 73.33%

Wakanohana II = 75.80%

Based on this you would say that HF and Kak, are both at the weaker end of the Yok scale, as would Kise be if he were to get it. Nevertheless, they all have a winning percentage that fits in appropriately with what is considered a Yokozuna worthy level of performance. I would also argue that, if they hadn't had the misfortune to have been competing at the same time as Hak (the greatest of all time), HF, Kak and Kise would all have slightly better winning records than they do, and that their records are slightly lower than the historical average because they are competing at the same time as the GOAT.

Based on this, the only thing missing from Kisenosato's resume is a couple of Yusho to make him Yokozuna worthy. The only real difference between him and well over half a dozen current and past Yokozuna, is his inability to win the cup at the end of the two weeks. His overall winning percentage at Ozeki, his head to head record against Hak, Kak and HF, and the number of Jun-yushos he has won, all suggest he should be a Yok. All he needs to do now is win one (hopefully this one) and I would argue he deserves the rope, based on his long term performance as an Ozeki.

And for the sake of argument, the records of these guys at Ozeki is:

Baruto = 66.5%

Kotooshu = 59.71%

Kotoshogiku = 59.79%

Kaio = 62.53%

Konishiki = 64.13%

Tochiazuma = 63.88%

Chiyotakai = 60.59%

These are Ozeki level performances. Anything over 70% is Yokozuna worthy...

That was really interesting, thanks.

Just a couple of things I'd like to extrapolate from that.

Firstly, according to those figures, Onokuni is the second-worst of the recent yokozuna, but even so a 67% win ratio works out to an average of 10-5 per tournament. Or you could flip that comment to say that averaging 10 wins is really pour for a yokozuna.

These are examples of the average wins per tournament based on your figures:

10-5 Onokuni 67.01%

11-4 Harumafuji 73.53

12-3 Takanohana 82.34%

13-2 Hakuho 89.2%

The average based on your figures is 75.79% -- basically halfway between 11-4 and 12-3.

So if (and it's a big "if") this kind of statistic is a measure of "yokozunability" it would suggest a yokozuna should usually be expected to do better than an 11-4 record.

But I always believed the measure of yokozunability was something a bit more abstract, on the lines of "consistently part of the yusho arasoi"

I'm trying to find a way to quantify that concept of "consistently part of the yusho arasoi" -- and I'm experimenting with the idea that it's about being on the leaderboard into the closing days of a tournament. As an experiment, I defined this as being within two wins of the leader by the end of Day 12 -- i.e, if the leader is 12-0, you're on the leaderboard with an 11-1 or 10-2 record; if the leader is 10-2, you're on the leaderboard with a 9-3 or 8-4 record, etc.

I looked as a sample at the last 12 completed basho -- which covers Kakuryu's yokozuna career. Out of those 12 basho, what I found is as follows.

Number of basho on the leaderboard:

12: ---

11: Hakuho

10: ---

9: ---

8: ---

7: Kisenosato

6: Kakuryu, Harumafuji

5: ---

4: Terunofuji, Ikioi

3: ----

2: Kotoshogiku, Goeido, Takayasu, Okinoumi, Yoshikaze, Kotoyuki, Toyonoshima

1: about 12 others

This would suggest that Kisenosato is entirely performing at yokozuna level, and it's only the lack of a yusho that holds him back. I really hope he gets there.

[dingo]

Speculation: what if Kisenosato wins against Hakuho by henka and takes the zensho yusho? Now that would be something to behold. It would also be a real headscratcher for the Yokozuna Deliberation Council...

[ALAKTORN]

Speculation: what if Kisenosato wins against Hakuho by henka and takes the zensho yusho? Now that would be something to behold. It would also be a real headscratcher for the Yokozuna Deliberation Council...

Hakuhō is not going to lose to a henka. Kisenosato only henka’d once in his whole career as far as I know, it was pretty recent though (like, last tournament).

[Benevolance]

I think Harumafuji might be the only wrestler canny and quick enough to henka Hakuho. Oh, man. I just had a thought: how funny would it be if Hak and Ama double-henka on senshuraku? (Laughing...)

[WAKATAKE]

They didn't even rejigger the schedule back in Kyushu to get Harumafuji vs. Hakuho on the last day, and in that case it was clear the other two of the top 4 were out of the running. That match also took place on Day 13 and probably "should have" been on Day 15. The problem is that they are somewhat forced by the rank situation, wanting the last bout of the tournament to be between 2 Yokozuna, with one of them being the guy at the top of the banzuke. So while they could switch Day 14 and Day 15, they can't move Day 13 onto Day 15, whether a direct switch or by rotating through Day 14.

My memory's been jogged and when Harumafuji won the first of his two yusho for his Yokozuna run, he did face Hakuho on the last day as the W2 Ozeki. You had two rikishi at 14-0, so they did switch everything around then. It's still only day 11, perhaps, just perhaps, they may switch things around. However I get the feeling that the exception to that situation back then was Hakuho was the only Yokozuna on the banzuke. So the dream matchup of Hak/Kise on day 15 is more than likely nil.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=1111&b=201207

Edited May 18, 2016 by WAKATAKE

[robnplunder]

This would suggest that Kisenosato is entirely performing at yokozuna level, and it's only the lack of a yusho that holds him back. I really hope he gets there.

I hope he wins this one. That will give him a good shot at Yokozuna. However, Hakuho looks too dominant. Kise is going to need help from others.

[SkinnySumo]

Speculation: what if Kisenosato wins against Hakuho by henka and takes the zensho yusho? Now that would be something to behold. It would also be a real headscratcher for the Yokozuna Deliberation Council...

Hakuhō is not going to lose to a henka. Kisenosato only henkad once in his whole career as far as I know, it was pretty recent though (like, last tournament).

And even then, it didn't seem premeditated. And I feel sorry for whoever henkas Hakuho...and fails. Yikes

[SkinnySumo]

And aside from his performance, Kisenosato seems to be the only guy who has not had any major injuries.

He probably just passed a career's worth of injuries to Terunofuji.

The only thing that comes to mind was that toe fracture a few years back.

But all three Yokozunas and the other two ozeki have had injuries that had them pull out or underperform(Goeido 4-11 in January)

If you had to choose between a yusho or an injury free career at ozeki. Which would you pick?

[robnplunder]

If you had to choose between a yusho or an injury free career at ozeki. Which would you pick?

It's off topic but I will answer gladly. I'd pick Yusho.

[dingo]

Speculation: what if Kisenosato wins against Hakuho by henka and takes the zensho yusho? Now that would be something to behold. It would also be a real headscratcher for the Yokozuna Deliberation Council...

Hakuhō is not going to lose to a henka. Kisenosato only henka’d once in his whole career as far as I know, it was pretty recent though (like, last tournament).

Well there's been a couple instances when he has lost to a henka, so its not impossible --

[Jojo]

Speculation: what if Kisenosato wins against Hakuho by henka and takes the zensho yusho? Now that would be something to behold. It would also be a real headscratcher for the Yokozuna Deliberation Council...

Hakuhō is not going to lose to a henka. Kisenosato only henka’d once in his whole career as far as I know, it was pretty recent though (like, last tournament).

Well there's been a couple instances when he has lost to a henka, so its not impossible --

No need to go that far back... The last 2 victories from Harumafuji over Hakuho were henka-ish... In November Harumafuji jumped so far left at the tachiai he almost landed on the gyoji's lap!

Edited May 18, 2016 by Jojo

[rhyen]

Is this why Hakuho adopts a more reactive tachiai strategy?

[kuroimori]

This would suggest that Kisenosato is entirely performing at yokozuna level, and it's only the lack of a yusho that holds him back. I really hope he gets there.

I hope he wins this one. That will give him a good shot at Yokozuna. However, Hakuho looks too dominant. Kise is going to need help from others.

Exactly, Kise will need some help as he tends to blow things when it counts - that is to say he has that habit to lose 2 bouts during the last 4-5 days of a basho. Edited May 18, 2016 by kuroimori

[hamcornheinz]

seemed to me like Kakuryu didn't think the gyoji would let that one pass...

[Jakusotsu]

Knowing Kisenosato's karma, I almost expect Terunofuji to win tomorrow (and then go kyujo).

[Tsubame]

How dare you!