Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2016

[shimodahito]

This is one of my favorite threads every basho and I know Asashosakari will jump in around day 10 with brilliant analysis.

Jonokuchi, however, is already down to only two 4-0 rikishi.

and like last basho, both are from Sadogatake heya.....

Jk9w Kototakahashi

Jk20e Kotokamatani

....so if both are matched against jonidan opponents and lose, we could have an interesting race for the yusho.

[Asashosakari]

Looks like Kototakahashi against Jd97w 4-0 Hayate and Kotokamatani against Jk5w 3-1 Tomiyama (I think; alternatively Jk3e 3-1 Akutsu). Kamatani to win and Takahashi to lose would be my guess.

[Gurowake]

The Makushita joi finds itself with 2 5-0 rikishi from the same heya: Tochimaru and Tochihiryu. The other two Ms 5-0s are Kotaro and Terao at ms47 and ms50. I have to wonder if they'll pair the lower two rikishi against each other and put the Kasugano rikishi against 4-1s in the joi, as that's a pretty big gap for a 5-0 match. They might though, and we'd probably be looking at 2 6-0 Kasugano rikishi in the joi who would definitely have to be put against 1-loss guys. I suppose Tochihiryu might get put up into Juryo though; he's reasonably high enough ranked for that. If they have to have one Ms-J bout on Day 11, it would make sense to do that then, put Tochimaru against Kotaro and Terao against Chiyonoumi at sd9. But would they do that if it meant having another exchange bout on Day 11? They normally don't do extras except in the last 3 days, but who knows in this situation. Given the potential position of have 2 7-0s be "guaranteed" Juryo promotion, I imagine that they're going to try something to prevent it due to the strain it would put on the banzuke situation as there's no one doing terribly at the bottom of Juryo (although we have one sure demotion/intai in Tokitenku) and Shotenro already has a KK at the top Makushita rank.

Of course, they could just do the rote Round 6 pairings and hope at least one of the two Kasugano rikishi lose, leading to a perfect Round 7 final.

[Gurowake]

We already have 3 rikishi who are almost certainly going to be demoted from Makuuchi: Osunaarashi, Endo, and Jokoryu . I believe Mitakeumi was said to be out with the flu, so he might return, but if he doesn't he'll also join that group. And I suspect that Kagayaki and Homarefuji will not win all their remaining matches and will be headed down as well. All these demotions means that someone might get lucky and remain in Makuuchi if there aren't reasonable candidates to replace them, and in my heart I'm really hoping Osunaarashi is saved by the lack of promotable Juryo rikishi, but that feels very unlikely given Chiyootori's placement a few basho ago. I suspect it's more likely they'll take any KK rikishi from the middle of Juryo if needed to replace all the kyujo guys.

[Asashosakari]

The Makushita joi finds itself with 2 5-0 rikishi from the same heya: Tochimaru and Tochihiryu. The other two Ms 5-0s are Kotaro and Terao at ms47 and ms50.

And they're lucky it's not 3 Kasugano rikishi, Aozora lost to Kotaro.

I think they'll just play this as usual for round 6.

[Fukurou]

Looks like Kototakahashi against Jd97w 4-0 Hayate and Kotokamatani against Jk5w 3-1 Tomiyama (I think; alternatively Jk3e 3-1 Akutsu). Kamatani to win and Takahashi to lose would be my guess.

The logjam continues - Kotokamatani defeated Hayate, and Kototakahashi answered by defeating Hayate in the exchange match

[ALAKTORN]

Looks like Kototakahashi against Jd97w 4-0 Hayate and Kotokamatani against Jk5w 3-1 Tomiyama (I think; alternatively Jk3e 3-1 Akutsu). Kamatani to win and Takahashi to lose would be my guess.

The logjam continues - Kotokamatani defeated Hayate, and Kototakahashi answered by defeating Hayate in the exchange match

They both defeated Hayate?

[Fukurou]

Looks like Kototakahashi against Jd97w 4-0 Hayate and Kotokamatani against Jk5w 3-1 Tomiyama (I think; alternatively Jk3e 3-1 Akutsu). Kamatani to win and Takahashi to lose would be my guess.

The logjam continues - Kotokamatani defeated Hayate, and Kototakahashi answered by defeating Hayate in the exchange match

They both defeated Hayate?

Amazing, isn't it? Kotokamatani defeated Tomiyama, Kototakahashi won over Hayate

[Ack!]

If Hakoho defeats Giku tomorrow, as expected, what if Giku then defeats Harumafuji and Harumafuji beats Hakuho to set up a 3-way playoff? This is my dream scenario. As a bonus, it would start yokozuna run mania!

[hamcornheinz]

If Hakoho defeats Giku tomorrow, as expected, what if Giku then defeats Harumafuji and Harumafuji beats Hakuho to set up a 3-way playoff? This is my dream scenario. As a bonus, it would start yokozuna run mania!

Then Takekaze comes out of the woods and takes it.

[lackmaker]

If Hakoho defeats Giku tomorrow, as expected, what if Giku then defeats Harumafuji and Harumafuji beats Hakuho to set up a 3-way playoff? This is my dream scenario. As a bonus, it would start yokozuna run mania!

That still won't be a 3-way playoff

[WAKATAKE]

Things would have to be complicated in order to get a 3 way playoff. There is mathematically no way currently to have a 3 way tie at 14-1. You could have a tie at 13-2 but there are a lot of things that would have to happen, like people losing some unexpected matches.

[Gurowake]

Things would have to be complicated in order to get a 3 way playoff. There is mathematically no way currently to have a 3 way tie at 14-1. You could have a tie at 13-2 but there are a lot of things that would have to happen, like people losing some unexpected matches.

Sure there is. Kotoshogiku loses to Hakuho. Hakuho loses to Harumafuji. Kotoshogiku doesn't meet Harumafuji and they instead get sent down against top-performing maegashira. Will that happen? Highly unlikely. But it is possible.

[Jakusotsu]

The only way that Harumafuji and Kotoshogiku won't get paired and still end up 14-1* is either an emergency merging of Isegahama and Sadogatake or Harumafuji's sudden marriage to Kotoshogiku's sister.

So, nope, no way.

Edit: *given that Hakuho is 14-1 as well, of course.

Edited January 19, 2016 by Jakusotsu

[Dapeng]

The most ideal scenario is both Giku and Haku at 14-1 and then a playoff, but Giku has to work very hard not to lose again.....

[Atenzan]

If you're gonna go over-the-top, don't forget the 6-man playoff possibility.

Kakuryu wins all his remaining matches, finishing 12-3

Hakuho loses to Kakuryu, Ama and Kisenosato, finishing 12-3.

Kotoshougiku loses to the yokozuna trio, finishing 12-3.

Ama loses to Kakuryu, Goeido and Kisenosato, finishing 12-3.

Okinoumi loses to Sokokurai tomorrow but wins on the last 4 days, finishing 12-3.

Toyonoshima wins through days 11-14 and is the odds-on favourite on senshuraku, being 12-2. He is pitted against Kisenosato by the NSK to ensure he is worthy of his imminent yusho, but tragically slips after a lopsided tachi-ai to a tsukihiza loss. He finishes sitting on 12-3.

There ensues a 6-man playoff between the three yokozuna, Kotoshougiku, Okinoumi and Toyonoshima. In the end Hakuho nekodamashi's his way to a 36th yusho and accepts the tate-gyoji's resignation.

Edited January 19, 2016 by McBugger

[Gurowake]

That's nice, but you have Harumafuji losing to Hakuho and Hakuho losing to Harumafuji, so it needs a little more work.

Edited January 19, 2016 by Gurowake

[Atenzan]

Hmm let's see what I can do...

Oh, easy fix, Ama loses to Goeido and wins against Hakuho. (This is probably the most use one can find for Goeido in the sumo world as it stands :P)

Edited January 19, 2016 by McBugger

[Seijakuzan]

Who does Kotoshogiku have left? 5 days, with 2 yokozunae, 1 ozeki, and 1 sekiwake left, which leaves one extra slot. He's done all 4 of M1 and M2, so I guess Ichinojo?

Hakuho owns him, but he has a good chance against any of the rest. I see Harumafuji as a risk for a half-henka to dash his chances, unless he's out of the race and feels like giving Kotoshogiku a fair chance to steal the yusho from Hakuho. Hell, I wouldn't put it past Hakuho tomorrow to let Kotoshogiku dive into the crowd and continue his perpetual middle finger to the kyokai.

Edited January 19, 2016 by Seijakuzan

[Gurowake]

I don't think we'll see Ichinojo-Kotoshogiku. Ichinojo already has 9 losses and there are a lot of maegashira with 8 wins. Kotoshogiku will probably face one of the latter.

[Asashosakari]

Anything left for me to do here except post the tables? ;-)

Day 10 (results, text-only results):

9-1 Harumafuji Y1 Hakuho 10-0

7-3 Kakuryu Y2

6-4 Kisenosato O1 Terunofuji 3-3-4

10-0 Kotoshogiku O2 Goeido 4-6

We're starting off the new year with a yusho race that deserves the name, that's always nice to see. Tomorrow sees the leaders' bout between Hakuho and Kotoshogiku, which should give us an inkling of how things will shake out here.

The high-ranked quartet not involved in the race will probably be happy when the basho is over - Kakuryu is having an average basho, Kisenosato even less than one, Goeido is headed for kadoban and Terunofuji is nursing major injuries. Speaking of which, so far the schedulers haven't really compensated for the missing bouts that Terunofuji would have had against the other ozeki right now, so all three of them still have a replacement maegashira date left at this late point in the basho.

Not much to say about the sanyaku race for the moment; it looks like Tochiozan and Yoshikaze will probably maintain their spots (although perhaps going to komusubi via 7-8), while the komusubi duo is on the road to makekoshi. Takarafuji and Kotoyuki have put their names in the hat as potential promotees, but they're facing heavy competition from lower-ranked Okinoumi, Toyonoshima and Takayasu. The good news is that that's easy to resolve with plenty of head-to-head bouts among them if need be.

4-6 Tochiozan S Yoshikaze 5-5

3-7 Ikioi K Tochinoshin 3-7

3-6-1 Aminishiki M1 Shohozan 3-7

5-5 Takarafuji M2 Aoiyama 3-7

M3 Kaisei 3-7

4-6 Kyokushuho M4 Kotoyuki 6-4

M5 Sokokurai 5-5

M6 Okinoumi 8-2

8-2 Toyonoshima M7

M8 Takayasu 8-2

...

8-2 Takekaze M13

Plenty of exchanges are coming up between the makuuchi and juryo ranks after this basho, courtesy of injuries to Endo and Jokoryu plus severe under(?)performances by Homarefuji and rookie Kagayaki that have caused them to punch their tickets to the second division early. (For such a large guy, Kagayaki sure looks rather un-strong sometimes, doesn't he?)

Things aren't looking much better in juryo where only Seiro and Hidenoumi can claim a sure trip to the top ranks with less than a 3-2 home stretch now. The table below will list the standard number of wins needed by everyone as usual, but it's safe to say that a lot of the guys on the bubble in both divisions will actually need one win less than that. Even Osunaarashi might still be able to hope for a reprieve, especially if Kitataiki makes himself unkeepable with 5 or 6 wins to open up a 5th slot.

(~) kyujo Osunaarashi M5

(1) 2-8 Tokushoryu M6

M7 Tamawashi 3-7 (1)

M8

M9 Gagamaru 5-5 (o)

(2) 3-4-3 Chiyootori M10 Mitakeumi 3-5-2 (2)

(x) 1-6-3 Endo M11 Amuru 5-5 (1)

M12 Shodai 6-4 (o)

M13

(x) 2-4-4 Jokoryu M14

(x) 1-9 Homarefuji M15 Kitataiki 5-5 (3)

(x) 2-8 Kagayaki M16 ---

(2) 6-4 Seiro J1 Fujiazuma 3-7 (5)

(~) 3-7 Sadanofuji J2 Hidenoumi 8-2 (1)

(3) 6-4 Daieisho J3 Kitaharima 3-7 (~)

(~) 3-7 Arawashi J4 Kagamio 5-5 (5)

(3) 7-3 Daishomaru J5 Akiseyama 5-5 (5)

(4) 7-3 Nishikigi J6 Satoyama 6-4 (5)

(~) 5-5 Tenkaiho J7 Chiyomaru 5-5 (~)

(~) 5-5 Asasekiryu J8

(The juryo part of that would obviously be quite a bit more empty if I wasn't keeping absolutely everyone who can still fluke a lucky promotion here...)

Juryo seems to be headed for at most 3 open slots. Tokitenku currently faces a bigger challenge than maintaining his sekitori spot, and among the active rikishi only the two bottom-rankers Onosho and Dewahayate are in significant danger for the moment. Quite a few rikishi do need two more wins for safety, however, and picking up a couple of losses in a row could quickly put them in trouble as well.

Makushita-hitto Shotenro is kachikoshi early, and if it wasn't for the presence of two unbeaten guys in the promotion zone I'd already declare him safe.

J8 Chiyoo 4-6 (1)

(x) kyujo Tokitenku J9 Kyokutaisei 4-6 (1)

(1) 5-5 Ishiura J10

(2) 4-6 Asabenkei J11 Azumaryu 6-4 (o)

(2) 5-5 Tsurugisho J12 Chiyoshoma 5-5 (2)

(2) 5-5 Amakaze J13 Chiyonokuni 6-4 (1)

(3) 5-5 Onosho J14 Dewahayate 4-6 (4)

4-1 Shotenro Ms1 Wakanoshima 2-3

(x) 1-4 Kairyu Ms2 Daido 1-4 (x)

2-3 Shiba Ms3 Tokushinho 2-3

3-2 Tamaasuka Ms4 Abi 3-2

2-3 Kizenryu Ms5 Daishoho 3-2

Ms6 Tochihiryu 5-0

...

5-0 Tochimaru Ms13

Edited January 19, 2016 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari]

Juryo yusho arasoi:

8-2 Hidenoumi

7-3 Daishomaru, Nishikigi

6-4 Seiro, Daieisho, Satoyama, Asahisho, Azumaryu, Chiyonokuni

The top three have already faced each other, so this will be another yusho race fought at long distance. As others have already mentioned, this has playoff written all over it.

Lower division yusho races (Day 9/10 results and links to video):

5-0 Ms6w Tochihiryu (Kasugano)

5-0 Ms13e Tochimaru (Kasugano)

5-0 Ms47e Kotaro (Fujishima)

5-0 Ms50w Terao (Shikoroyama)

---

5-0 Sd9e Chiyonoumi (Kokonoe)

5-0 Sd21w Maeta (Shibatayama)

5-0 Sd46e Asanotosa (Takasago)

5-0 Sd66e Sadahikari (Sakaigawa)

5-0 Sd86e Haguroho (Tatsunami)

5-0 Sd95e Okinohama (Hakkaku)

---

5-0 Jd17e Yamamoto (Tamanoi)

5-0 Jd32w Chiyoarashi (Kokonoe)

5-0 Jd42e Tokutaiho (Sakaigawa)

5-0 Jd64e Kaito (Asakayama)

5-0 Jd75e Amamidake (Yamahibiki)

---

5-0 Jk9w Kototakahashi (Sadogatake)

5-0 Jk20e Kotokamatani (Sadogatake)

We're getting the high-low pairings in makushita tomorrow, so until that's settled it's basically impossible to say where the yusho race is going in that division. Purely by prior track record it should be ex-juryo Tochihiryu's to lose, of course, but I wouldn't be too surprised if something different happens.

Nittaidai prospect Chiyonoumi, formerly known as Hamamachi, seems to be recovered from his surprising struggles in the second half of Kyushu basho and should be the favourite in sandanme - not that it's impossible, but it's hard to see him get upset tomorrow by older-than-dirt Maeta who's more than two years removed from his last makushita KK, nor by the winner of Asanotosa-Sadahikari. Former mid-makushita youngster Haguroho is probably the biggest threat to Chiyonoumi here, but they won't meet before a possible senshuraku playoff.

I can't quite tell what's in store for the Sadogatake duo from jonokuchi - normally it would just be Kototakahashi against the lowest-ranked 5-0 guy from jonidan and Kotokamatani facing a 1-loss opponent again, but the Day 11 schedule of the 4-1 rikishi is sufficiently confusing that I'm not sure who's facing whom there on Day 12. Possibly Amamidake and the two Kotos have all been set against 1-loss guys.

In any case, anything other than yusho by Chiyoarashi and Kotokamatani would rate as a surprise here.

Edited January 19, 2016 by Asashosakari

[kuroimori]

If Hakoho defeats Giku tomorrow, as expected, what if Giku then defeats Harumafuji and Harumafuji beats Hakuho to set up a 3-way playoff? This is my dream scenario. As a bonus, it would start yokozuna run mania!

A threesome I mean 3-way playoff is a very rare thing to occur - there are just too many ifs - so they almost always remain what you labeled them: a fantasy dream scenario... ;-)

[Gurowake]

Yeah, I couldn't make heads or tails of the 4-1 and 5-0 schedules at the bottom of the banzuke either. Nothing I looked at made absolutely any sense, and the database isn't particularly well organized to do too deep of an analysis quickly. We'll just have to see what they came up with tomorrow.

Edited January 20, 2016 by Gurowake

[Asashosakari]

Yeah, I couldn't make heads or tails of the 4-1 and 5-0 schedules at the bottom of the banzuke either. Nothing I looked at made absolutely any sense, and the database isn't particularly well organized to do too deep of an analysis quickly. We'll just have to see what they came up with tomorrow.

After looking at it again - I'd guess it's going to be Amamidake-Kototakahashi and either Hayate-Kotokamatani or Hitomi-Kotokamatani, with the lowest-ranked 4-1 guy Yokoe sitting out Day 11/12 altogether for a later make-up bout. Edited January 20, 2016 by Asashosakari