Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2016

[Gurowake]

I thought it is your claim to be good at this and I think you are.

At guessing the outcome of matches? Sure. At GTB? Not so much. Ok, I have a handful of top 10s, but I have a lot of really bad records too.

I still didn't get the banzuke rules in the lower divisions so I would have no idea how to create a Ms1-Ms15 banzuke...

What I did was do a query for each rank and record in the lower division in the past 20 years or so, and took the median resulting rank. Yes, that was very time consuming to do for the entire banzuke (down to Jd80 or so, below that a lot depends on how big Jd is) and it was hardly a one afternoon project, especially since I had no automation. Some of the resulting data clearly seems wrong as it's not monotonic over intervals that it clearly should be, but that can just be corrected for by averaging over a wide number of ranks. I tried making entire banzuke for the lower divisions for a few basho after doing that, and sometimes I was fairly close, but there's clearly more that goes than some standard movement allowances, just as there is in the sekitori ranks. They are not particularly consistent in the big picture either, but that's not really news.