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Posted
14 minutes ago, Barutokai said:

Playing Guessing the Banzuke would've been more challenging back then I guess...

 ... or impossible.

Posted

(Moved from the Ajigawa-beya discussion.)
 

13 hours ago, Reonito said:

Either way, [rikishi qualified to open a heya via 25 sanyaku basho] it's a very short list.

FWIW, I was thinking in general sumo history, not specifically the time period since the actual rule came in.

Rikishi            15 S/K    20 S/K    25 S/K
---------------------------------------------
Mitsuneyama (O)   1953.03
Asashio (Y)       1957.01
Tokitsuyama       1959.03
Annenyama         1961.07   1962.05
Dewanishiki       1961.11
Tochihikari (O)   1962.05
Daigo             1964.05
Kotozakura (Y)    1967.09
Kiyokuni (O)      1968.09
Daikirin (O)      1969.07   1970.05
Hasegawa          1970.09   1971.11   1972.11
Takamiyama        1974.07   1976.03   1977.11
Kaiketsu (O)      1975.01
Kurohimeyama      1977.03
Kirinji           1983.05
Dewanohana        1986.01
Asahifuji (Y)     1987.09
Sakahoko          1989.07
Kotogaume         1989.11
Tochinowaka       1992.03
Kotonishiki       1993.11   1994.11   1996.03
Akinoshima        1995.01   1997.01   1999.05
Takatoriki        1996.05   1997.05   1999.05
Kaio (O)          1996.11   1998.01   1999.05
Musoyama (O)      1996.11   1998.01   1999.01
Tochiazuma (O)    2000.09   2001.11
Tosanoumi         2002.09   2005.05
Wakanosato        2003.07   2004.05   2005.05
Kotomitsuki (O)   2004.11   2005.11   2006.09
Kisenosato (Y)    2010.05   2011.07
Kotoshogiku (O)   2011.07
Goeido (O)        2013.11
Tochiozan         2014.05   2015.09   2017.09
Aminishiki        2014.07
Mitakeumi (O)     2019.05   2020.09   2021.07

This list excludes rikishi who reached one of the milestones only after they were ozeki, e.g. Takayasu had 8 S/K tournaments at the time of his promotion and now has 15, and Kotoshogiku, who's listed at 15, also reached 20 later on.

So, not counting rikishi who later became ozeki or even yokozuna, there have only been 19 / 9 / 7 rikishi who reached the respective number of S/K tournaments in the last ~70 years.


Special trivia note: Of the (including later Y/O) 11 rikishi who got to 25 S/K tournaments, somehow three of them reached that milestone in the exact same basho, Natsu 1999.

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Posted
On 03/12/2022 at 16:16, Reonito said:

Seems like getting to just 15 was a lot more common before 1993 than since...

Based on Asashosakari's table, that's 20 rikishi in 40 years pre-'93, and 15 rikishi in 29 years. Make the latter 30 years instead, and the average, interestingly, is exactly the same; one bloke every two years.

Posted
43 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

Based on Asashosakari's table, that's 20 rikishi in 40 years pre-'93, and 15 rikishi in 29 years. Make the latter 30 years instead, and the average, interestingly, is exactly the same; one bloke every two years.

I was thinking of the ones in red: 9 pre-'93, 1 post (10 and 2 if you throw in the ones in orange). Not sure if it's just small sample size, or if there was a reason more guys who never made it to ozeki used to get to 15 san'yaku basho but not 25.

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Posted (edited)

I think the mid-to-late 1990s were just highly anomalous with the 5 strong Y/O on top for years and a whole bunch of near-ozeki caliber guys underneath who got in each other's way. Kaio, Musoyama and Tochiazuma finally benefitted from the top guys aging out, while Kotonishiki, Akinoshima and Takatoriki were themselves too old by then. (And Tosanoumi, who belongs in there as well, just wasn't good enough.)

But more generally speaking, I think the underlying trend here is that high-rankers tend to last longer nowadays (not that one could tell from the current high-rankers...) than they did up to the 1980s, so back then if you were good enough to become ozeki you often got your shot without a lengthy run-up of S/K appearances. The guys who still got a sizable amount of them often just weren't really close to ozeki material, and 15-ish sounds about right for rikishi of that type. Also, keep in mind that they were less stingy with the sanyaku slots then, so rikishi such as Myogiryu and Toyonoshima (both at 13) or even more recently Tamawashi (right now at 14) probably would feature on the list under the same banzuke conditions.

Edited by Asashosakari
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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted

Strange but not strange: # of 7-0 Yusho in Jonokuchi since 2000.  The backwards trend suggests that most 7-0 scores are taken by fresh up-and-comers, and rarely by Jk 1-6, who are probably ancient veterans (however, I will check this).

Jk rank  N

1             0

2             1

3             0

4             1

5             4

6             2

7             0

8             1

9             4

10           3

11           6

12           4

13           2

14           6

15           4

16           8

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Posted
1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

Strange but not strange: # of 7-0 Yusho in Jonokuchi since 2000.  The backwards trend suggests that most 7-0 scores are taken by fresh up-and-comers, and rarely by Jk 1-6, who are probably ancient veterans (however, I will check this).

Jk rank  N

 

1             0

 

2             1

 

3             0

 

4             1

 

5             4

 

6             2

 

7             0

 

8             1

 

9             4

 

10           3

 

11           6

 

12           4

 

13           2

 

14           6

 

15           4

 

16           8

I've checked from Jk1 to Jk11; all are either first time rikishi, or men that have fallen from Sd or Ms (or M!) and went 7-0 on their first basho back.  Ikeru, who had multiple injuries, had Yusho from Jk24 on his first basho and subsequent "rebound" Yusho at Jk19 and Jk11.  I haven't yet seen a 7-0 from a journeyman of Jk/Jd/Sd.

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

Idk if there would be a non-manual way of checking this, but could this be perhaps the oldest collection of top division rikishi?

The average birthday of top divison rikishi on the Kyushu 2022 banzuke was December 11, 1992. Meaning average age of 29 years 11 months, 2 days at the start of the basho.

In large part due to Atamifuji dropping to juryo this banzuke, the average birthday got pushed back to November 2, 1992. Meaning average age has broken 30, and at start of basho will be  30 years, 2 months, 6 days.

EDIT: Actually Kyushu 2021 beats Hatsu 2023 with 30 years, 2 months, 26 days.

 

 

Edited by Wakawakawaka
Posted

The 1800s must have had a lot of >30 average bashos. Haru 1844 and Haru 1880, the first two I checked, both have an average of 36 (taking only rikishi with a birth date available).

Posted
On 27/12/2022 at 20:02, Wakawakawaka said:

Idk if there would be a non-manual way of checking this

You could do a request for all Makuuchi rikishi, grouped by basho, and include the birthdate.  Get all that data into excel and do some text parsing, and you should be able to get something out of it.  I'll look into doing it in the next couple days if I get time and remember (I don't have time right now - just browsing on break at work).

Posted

The database requirement to have at most 1000 lines per page makes this less fast than it could be if I could get all the results on the same page, but it's not too time consuming to do them 1000 at a time.  I started with everything since 2000.  Here they are in ascending order of numbers of days old the average competitor was at the beginning of the month of the basho, and then that number divided by 365 to get their approximate age (I'm not going to try to work in leap years).  Days are presented as the nearest integer, and the year approximate to 3 decimal places.  The average age is definitely older now than a decade ago.

The database doesn't have the current banzuke up yet, so I can't compare it using this method of calculation yet.

Spoiler
  Basho Days (int) Days/365
1 2005.07 10086 27.632
2 2005.11 10092 27.650
3 2000.11 10095 27.657
4 2005.01 10100 27.670
5 2012.01 10136 27.769
6 2005.05 10147 27.801
7 2000.09 10171 27.866
8 2005.09 10172 27.868
9 2007.11 10175 27.877
10 2008.09 10182 27.896
11 2006.01 10182 27.897
12 2001.01 10196 27.933
13 2008.07 10200 27.945
14 2008.03 10202 27.950
15 2004.11 10208 27.967
16 2014.03 10211 27.975
17 2000.01 10218 27.994
18 2008.01 10225 28.013
19 2006.05 10228 28.021
20 2012.05 10231 28.031
21 2000.07 10234 28.037
22 2001.03 10234 28.038
23 2006.09 10235 28.042
24 2001.05 10239 28.053
25 2013.05 10245 28.068
26 2008.05 10250 28.082
27 2001.07 10261 28.113
28 2012.03 10262 28.116
29 2014.05 10263 28.117
30 2000.05 10264 28.120
31 2003.03 10265 28.123
32 2007.07 10271 28.141
33 2011.09 10284 28.176
34 2011.11 10285 28.178
35 2007.03 10290 28.193
36 2002.03 10294 28.203
37 2005.03 10299 28.217
38 2008.11 10306 28.235
39 2001.11 10308 28.241
40 2006.07 10309 28.243
41 2009.01 10319 28.272
42 2000.03 10325 28.289
43 2002.05 10328 28.296
44 2006.03 10329 28.298
45 2002.01 10329 28.298
46 2004.07 10330 28.301
47 2014.01 10335 28.314
48 2012.07 10336 28.318
49 2001.09 10338 28.323
50 2004.09 10344 28.340
51 2014.11 10344 28.340
52 2013.01 10357 28.375
53 2004.05 10361 28.386
54 2002.07 10366 28.399
55 2007.05 10370 28.410
56 2013.11 10377 28.431
57 2009.07 10386 28.456
58 2007.09 10391 28.469
59 2013.03 10396 28.482
60 2006.11 10397 28.484
61 2014.09 10398 28.488
62 2012.09 10401 28.495
63 2017.01 10404 28.503
64 2012.11 10404 28.505
65 2010.07 10407 28.513
66 2011.07 10409 28.517
67 2003.01 10409 28.519
68 2007.01 10410 28.520
69 2002.11 10411 28.523
70 2004.01 10422 28.552
71 2004.03 10423 28.557
72 2013.07 10424 28.559
73 2009.05 10429 28.572
74 2003.11 10437 28.594
75 2013.09 10444 28.613
76 2017.09 10445 28.618
77 2003.09 10449 28.626
78 2017.03 10457 28.649
79 2009.11 10459 28.655
80 2016.09 10462 28.662
81 2015.01 10465 28.670
82 2017.05 10466 28.674
83 2018.03 10475 28.699
84 2010.03 10487 28.732
85 2002.09 10489 28.736
86 2010.05 10490 28.741
87 2017.07 10492 28.744
88 2016.11 10492 28.746
89 2014.07 10494 28.749
90 2009.03 10498 28.761
91 2009.09 10498 28.762
92 2003.05 10503 28.774
93 2016.05 10512 28.800
94 2003.07 10521 28.825
95 2018.01 10526 28.837
96 2018.07 10537 28.869
97 2010.01 10538 28.872
98 2015.05 10541 28.879
99 2011.05 10542 28.881
100 2016.01 10548 28.900
101 2016.07 10558 28.927
102 2019.11 10561 28.933
103 2011.01 10575 28.971
104 2017.11 10576 28.975
105 2018.09 10580 28.986
106 2015.03 10599 29.037
107 2018.11 10605 29.056
108 2015.09 10606 29.058
109 2010.11 10614 29.078
110 2019.01 10624 29.108
111 2019.05 10627 29.115
112 2019.03 10633 29.132
113 2019.09 10649 29.176
114 2019.07 10654 29.189
115 2020.11 10661 29.208
116 2016.03 10691 29.290
117 2015.11 10704 29.325
118 2015.07 10728 29.391
119 2021.03 10735 29.410
120 2021.01 10755 29.466
121 2018.05 10761 29.482
122 2020.09 10771 29.510
123 2010.09 10793 29.570
124 2020.07 10818 29.637
125 2020.03 10826 29.660
126 2021.05 10855 29.740
127 2022.09 10855 29.740
128 2020.01 10871 29.784
129 2022.11 10874 29.792
130 2022.05 10889 29.834
131 2022.07 10895 29.849
132 2021.07 10913 29.899
133 2022.03 10928 29.940
134 2022.01 10963 30.036
135 2021.09 10968 30.050
136 2021.11 11032 30.224

 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

You could do a request for all Makuuchi rikishi, grouped by basho, and include the birthdate.  Get all that data into excel and do some text parsing, and you should be able to get something out of it.  I'll look into doing it in the next couple days if I get time and remember (I don't have time right now - just browsing on break at work).

I did that last basho to check sekitori - makuuchi - sanyaku

On 31/10/2022 at 19:28, Akinomaki said:

Looking at the banzuke, it doesn't seem like a change of guards is happening - 1 of the 35 years or older veterans is in juryo, Tokushoryu, 8 are in makuuchi, with Tamawashi as the oldest, he'll turn 38 during the basho. The youngest sekitori now is new makuuchi Atamifuji, he turned 20 in September, only 5 others in makuuchi are below 25 and Kotonowaka only for 3 weeks more. 12 are 30-34, 7 in juryo - close to half of makuuchi is 30 or above.

2 years ago we had 4 at 35 and above, also with Tamawashi as the oldest, and 3 in juryo, also 12 at 30-34 - the average age in makuuchi is half a year higher now. 4 years ago we had only 1 age 35 and above in makuuchi and 3 in juryo, average makuuchi age only slightly lower, but 6 years ago it was again half a year lower. The average sekitori age overall also rose by about 1 year in these 6 years, 28.25 to  29.20, but dropped slightly from 2 years ago.

Average age in sanyaku dropped from 29.79 to 29.33 in these 6 years, with the drop from 29.70 to 29.35  from 2018 to 20.

Posted
22 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

The average age is definitely older now than a decade ago.

The data has a definite overall upward trend.(about a month in age for every calendar year).  The peak was at the end of last year.  Hmmm ...

Posted

It won't be easy to go back as far as the data goes due to limitations in how Excel handles dates and how I'm parsing the birthdates.  For dates in the 1800s, my formulas are giving nonsense.  For anyone without a full birthday, the text parsing formulas will get messed up.  I'll try to go back as far as I can until either of those becomes a problem.

Posted

Here's the top 20 Makuuchi age averages from the time periods where my formulas give sensible results.  

  Basho Days (int) Days/365
1 Sep-1957 11160 30.575
2 Nov-1957 11070 30.329
3 May-1957 11058 30.297
4 Jan-1958 11035 30.232
5 Nov-2021 11032 30.224
6 Mar-1957 11004 30.149
7 Sep-2021 10968 30.050
8 Jan-2022 10963 30.036
9 May-1958 10956 30.016
10 Sep-1956 10950 30.000
11 Mar-2022 10928 29.940
12 May-1956 10925 29.932
13 Mar-1958 10921 29.920
14 Jul-2021 10913 29.899
15 Jul-2022 10895 29.849
16 May-2022 10889 29.834
17 Jan-1939 10881 29.811
18 Jan-1957 10880 29.809
19 Nov-2022 10874 29.792
20 Jan-2020 10871 29.784
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Posted (edited)

Here's a graph.

image.thumb.png.95b79c489fdf4201908bb42a327efadd.png 

 

Earlier time periods have rikishi born prior to 1900, which Excel does not handle appropriately with formulas.  There might be a workaround, but I'm not interested in going any further, if only because there also starts being a relative lack of information on birthdates then as well.

Edited by Gurowake
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Posted

Top ten decreases in age in the data set from the previous basho to the one listed, measured in days/365:

  Basho Change
1 Sep-1961 -0.786
2 Mar-1985 -0.737
3 Nov-1945 -0.684
4 May-1939 -0.642
5 Jul-2018 -0.614
6 Nov-1964 -0.595
7 Nov-2007 -0.593
8 Nov-1990 -0.589
9 Sep-1991 -0.579
10 Mar-1982 -0.521

The July 2018 instance was from the demotion of both Takekaze and Aminishiki, replaced with Onosho and Meisei (and Daiamami down and Kotoeko up, but not as much of a difference there). 

Top 10 increases:

  Basho Change
1 Sep-2010 1.057
2 Jan-1939 0.865
3 Jan-2020 0.851
4 May-2018 0.783
5 May-2003 0.651
6 Jul-2014 0.632
7 Mar-2005 0.547
8 May-1948 0.544
9 Jul-2015 0.512
10 Jul-2013 0.491

September 2010 featured a bunch of young rikishi demoted for gambling.  Jan 2020 featured repromotion of veterans Azumaryu, Ikioi, Tochiozan, Tokushoryu, and Kaisei (all born 86-87), while relatively young rikishi Tomokaze, Ichinojo, Daishomaru, Wakatakakage, Nishikigi and Daishoho (all born early 90s) were demoted.  Bucking the trend, Kiribayama was also promoted.  May 2018 saw the repromotion of Takekaze and Aminishiki which was followed by the basho mentioned above in the decreases.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

It's perhaps kind of obvious (or at least not surprising) given the shape of the banzuke, but Hatsu 2023 is the first modern era basho that starts off with fewer than 2 active Y/O (Link).

Edited by Asashosakari
Posted

Daieisho's defeat of 4 Sekiwake in honwari matches in the same tournament is the 17th such occurrence we have records of.  He's is the second maegashira to do it, and the first of any rank to have all the wins in the first week.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&group_expand=on&group_by=rikishi1&group_by2=basho&having=4&day=1-15&onlyw1=on&rank2=s&offset=50

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