BroadMeadow

Terunofuji has only had 1 match this basho against someone even approaching Kotonowaka's level (i.e. Wakamotoharu): and he lost. He has been able to more or less cruise so far. Tomorrow the storm is coming. If Kotonowaka can stay out of his own head...

It is surprising to see two of the O-boys still fighting at the top when neither are realistically in yusho-contention. It would be nice if the next banzuke would match the in-tournament reality though. If you have an M14 and M15 spending the last third of the basho fighting sanyaku their rank next basho should represent that. From the looks of things right now, there is going to be PLENTY of room for them in the M1-M5 range.

Shodai looked legit upset when he was initially declared the winner. Guess that was one of the matches he was trying to lose to get/keep the rank he really wants. Day 10 schedule is crazy at the top! Moving early to clear the O-boys out of the way.

Midorifuji seems like the new Endo to me. A fan favorite with a lot of tricks in the bag who should just always be ranked M3-M5. He is going to do well enough to deserve M1 and even an occasional komosubi, but generally suffer an immediate makekoshi at those ranks. Even though there are 7 wrestlers at 4-2, it seems the basho is going to one of the first 8 in the standings right now. Seems like there are 2 tracks going now: the upper (Y,O,S) and lower (the O-boys and Kotoshoho) with Asanoyama firmly between the two. Kotoshoho has shown some spirit, but I don’t trust him to keep it up- that leaves 7. Onosato and Oho faceoff tomorrow so that will leave 6. If Oho wins wins, I can see them matching him up with Onosho (who has the day off tomorrow) on day 8, that will leave 5: the surviving O-boy, Asanoyama, and the 3 Y,O,S. Bring on day 11. I hope Tobizaru doesn’t bump into Terunofuji in a dark alley. Which is to say I totally hope he does and would pay decent money to see it.

Great to see Ochiai and Gonoyama come out with so much piss and vinegar. Neither won, but both stated they belong. Hoshoryu gets criticized for his henkas, but he has also made fools of two guys who tried it on him. Kudos.

24 rikishi at 4-3 or 3-4. They must have done a pretty good job on the banzuke. That's a bell plateau!

Great sumo by Tamawashi. Heading straight for Terunofuji's right shoulder to make him bring forward his left knee-which he has been trying to protect- then staying back to make the yokozuna put weight on it. I wonder if any others will try to follow the map? A good day for fun kimarites!

A third of the way through the basho and it looks like it is Terunofuji’s until someone takes it from him. Mitakeumi passes the eye test as doing the best sumo, but the history-test makes us skeptical. With Takakeisho’s withdraw will Abi face more of the joi early? Or will we have to wait for the send-up next Friday? Of the five at 4-1, Tamawashi has done it before. Will Myogiru get the perpetually predicted breakthrough? The 3-2/2-3 middle doesn’t have too many surprises. Tochinoshin’s place seems tenuous, even with today’s glimpse of the past. Rikishi do not live by glimpses alone. Of the 1-4/0-5 bottom dwellers, the most pressing questions are the M1s and Ura. There doesn’t seem to be any reason Wakatakakage and Kiribayama can’t turn things around as the quality of competition decreases. Ura’s place appears a bit more tenuous. Shodai left him concussed while Takakeisho and Terunofuji took him to the physical limits. He didn’t seem to have anything in today’s match with Meisei. Tomorrow’s tussle with a motivated Kiribayama may tell the tale for both.

What a joy it is to watch Terunofuji's sumo. Before his fall to injuries he was an explosion of fury and force. He seemed so angry I wasn't sure what he was more irritated at: his opponent, or the mere fact of being there. I loved hating him. What is yokozuna sumo? Multiple yokozuna demurred to answer in NHK's recent Hakuho retirement video. Hakuho- even to the end- was a blast to watch. The way he got himself into and out of trouble was incredible. But his talent was so singular you knew it couldn't be matched. You couldn't characterize Hakuho's as "yokozuna sumo" because he seemed to transcend the rank itself. Some might call Terunofuji's sumo passive, or patient. For me it is controlled. He seems to be controlling everything by being controlled. He is not imposing his will on the match. The match comes to him, and he responds to it. His opponent is charging, working, grabbing, straining against a mountain that absorbs all the effort and turns it whichever way he wishes. His two bad knees have made him twice the rikishi. His strength has been brought low and he is the better for it. He can no longer rely of the fury of brute force. But he can now take his opponent's strength and make it his own. I am pretty sure I will never see a greater wrestler than Hakuho. But I am not sure I will ever see a better yokozuna than Terunofuji.

It was like a 7th grade playground fight today. Nobody really seemed to want to start and didn't know what to do once they did!

I got you! I am slow to make commitments, but I have the tab open and I will spend time between now and March getting familiar with everything. Hopefully I will join in the fun then. Keep hounding me though!

DAY 15 REPORT Banzuke- 5-12-1 (63-56-11 52.9%) Highlight matches- 3-1 (14-12-1 53.8%) As for the everyday reports, the daily results are given first and then the cumulative results are given in the parenthesis. The "ties" are matches where the rikishi had the same AW total or matches with a fusen. The "highlight matches" include two types of matches- matches between rikishi with the same W-L records, and matches in which the rikishi with the lower/worse W-L is favored to win by the AW measurement. For this basho, accumulated wins are figured by adding any wins of the defeated wrestler to the wins of the victorious wrestler. How did it work? I am working on my impressions. My hypothesis was that the metric would be helpful in picking "upsets" (with upsets based purely on W-L records). According to this site: https://www.thesportsgeek.com/sports-betting/math/ you have to win 52.4% of your bets to break even. Since the metric predicted winners at a 53.8% rate, I would have made money if I had actually wagered it. But this is for entertainment purposes only... I do not know whether to be concerned or happy that the highlight match win percentage basically matched the entire banzuke percentage. The banzuke record is basically just a scratch record- against the W-L of the wrestlers. So for this basho at least, the metric picked "upset" winners at the same winning rate as someone who was just picking against the W-L records. There are some things that could be added or changed to potentially improve the metric: making the wins truly cumulative. Right now if someone beats a 1-0 Hakuho he gets 1 accumulated win. But if someone beats a 10-1 Hakuho, he gets 10 accumulated wins. Both wrestlers defeated Hakuho, but one's victory was 10x more valuable than the other. I have already started work on the spreadsheet to include this in March. adding accumulated losses to metric. This is in the March spreadsheet too. figuring in the historic record between the 2 rikishi. It would seem to matter if one wrestler "has the number" of another wrestler. figuring in some sort of calculus for the difference in rank. A 9-3 Yokozuna should probably be favored over a 12-0 M16 no matter what the other numbers say. (I know, I know, a Yokozuna would never face an M16 on day 13 of the basho, but you get the point.) In short, if I was trying to make money off of this, I would have this time. But I would like to be a little more confident about the next time! I jumped into this without a whole lot of forethought so it is a work in progress. Nothing is ever going to be 100% accurate, but if I could get up to 60% I would feel really good about it.

DAY 14 REPORT Banzuke- 12-4-2 (58-44-10) Highlight- 0-2 (11-11-1) DAY 15 PREDICTIONS: Predicted winners in tied W-L matches- Shodai Tochiozan Predicted winners with worse W-L record than opponent: Myogiryu

Right. That is why I am saying it might be difficult to get the Ozeki promotion- a contributing factor at least. The powers that be might not want to put that kind of pressure on him (a once-in-a-century-type promotion). And they might not want to be accused of moving to fast just to advance the generation-change agenda. That said, Kise had the slowest advance to Yokozuna so maybe we are in for a violent regression to mean!

It is a battle of history and statistics. From an historical perspective, it would be VERY difficult to promote Takakeisho to Ozeki after only one basho at Sekiwake. In the 6-basho era, it would be unprecedented. You have to go back to 1918 for a 1-basho Sekiwake to be promoted to Ozeki! That said, Takakeisho's win pattern is clearly headed toward Yokozuna status. In this era, the average Yokozuna progress is 9 bashos at Maegashira; 3 at Komsubi; 6 at Sekiwake, and 13 at Ozeki. Takakeisho is at 9, 3, and 1. He might be on the career arc of Chiyonofuji (14-3-2-3) or Kitanoumi (8-2-2-3) and be skipping some of the bashos at Sekiwake and Ozeki. But only spending 1 basho at Sekiwake would basically be an acknowledgment that he could be a historically great wrestler.

DAY 13 REPORT Banzuke 9-9-1 (46-40-8) Highlight matches 2-3 (11-9-1) DAY 14 PREDICTIONS Predicted winners in tied W-L record matches: Kotoshogiku Predicted winners with worse W-L record than opponent: Kagayaki

First of all, thank you for doing the hard work of posting the bouts every day. You are a big reason I recently started following sumo. But what should I have been looking for to see that Hak had a poor basho when he started it 10-0? Was it that he seemed to escape in a few of the early matches? Or was it that he simply seemed to expend more effort than a yokozuna should against opponents with those ranks? I guess I thought I was seeing skill, control, and wiliness; but better eyes were seeing weakness.

DAY 12 REPORT Banzuke- 13-5 (37-31-7) Highlight matches- 5-1 (9-6-1) DAY 13 Predictions: Predicted winners in tied W-L record matches: Onosho Chiyotairyu Asanoyama Shohozan Predicted winners with worse W-L record than opponent: Chiyoshoma

DAY 3 (Basho 11) REPORT Banzuke : 7-10-2 (total: 24-26-7) Highlight matches- 3-3-1 (total: 4-5-1) DAY 4 PREDICTIONS: Predicted winners in tied W-L record matches- · Takayasu · Hokutofuji · Shodai · Ikioi · Asanoyama Predicted winners with worse W-L record than opponent: · Takarafuji

DAY 2 (basho day 10) REPORT Yesterday was a pretty bad one for the AW metric. An overall record of 8-9-2 and neither of the predicted upsets materialized. That makes the 2-day total: 17-16-5 and 1-2 DAY 3 PREDICTIONS Matches with even W-L records with predicted AW winner: Kotoeko over Sadanoumi Daieisho over Kotoyuki Yutakayama over Onosho Matches where lower W-L is predicted winner: Asanoyama over Yago Chiyotairyu over Kaisei Takayasu over Okinoumi By ranking, Takayasu over Okinoumi can't be considered upset per se, but Okinoumi does have the better W-L record this basho.

Thanks for all the input, I appreciate it. I think I need to spend some time with @itchyknee it looks like he is way ahead of me. But this sport (probably) has the longest historical statistical database of any now in existence, and I am so new to the game. DAY 1 REPORT Day 1 was a mixed bag. As some have commented and hinted at, this metric doesn't seem to advance much beyond simple W-L records. The over-all predictive record for AW on day nine's action was 9-7-3. The three are: the first match involving the juryo wrestler and two matches where rikishi had the same AW total. A 56% winning percentage is not bad. Before the matches, I highlighted one bout where the AW record contradicted the W-L record: Ichinojo v. Myogiryu. The AW indicated Myogiryu would win, even though his record was worse than Ichinojo's (3-5 v. 5-3). As predicted by the AW method I am using, Myogiryu won the match. So in selected matches, the AW metric is 1-0. DAY 2 PREDICTIONS Day 2 (day 10 of the basho) offers 2 matches in which the AW total is at odds with the W-L records of the rikishi: Ichinojo (5-4, 6AW) vs. Tochiozan (4-5, 12AW) Hokutofuji (5-4, 8AW) vs. Myogiryu (4-5, 14AW) So AW says take the two rikishi with 4-5 records. PROSPECT Again, I do not expect this metric to be particularly beneficial on a match-to-match, entire banzuke-wide level. On such a basis, sumo is wildly unpredictable. On day 9, Ryuden (2-6, 0AW) defeated Kaisei (7-1, 12AW). Show me the metric that predicted that, and also give me an invitation to visit you on your yacht in the Mediterranean. My expectation is that this might help pick out one or two matches per day where the records of the rikishi are not inductive of what to expect in the match. Beyond including the measurement of accumulated losses, I am wondering if AW should be static or dynamic. Should wins accumulate to a wrestler only on the day he wins, or should wins accumulate throughout the tournament. For example, Nishikigi is 4-5 but only has one AW because on day 3 he defeated Kakuryu who was 1-1 at the time. However, on day 1, Nishikigi defeated Goiedo who has now won 3 matches. Kakuryu won an additional match on day 4. So given the wins of wrestlers when he defeated them, Nishikigi only has 1AW, but given all the wins of the defeated wrestlers throughout the tournament, he has 5AW. Taking into consideration cumulative AW might be more helpful. But since sumo is a zero-sum game the line might have to be drawn there, otherwise we will just be predicting ties for very match!

Very funny. There is a limit on how many "reactions" you can have per day? Guess your smiley face will have to wait until tomorrow.

Its all fun and games and speculation...until there's money on it!

I agree. On a match-to-match basis it seems so completely unpredictable, but taken as a whole there must be patterns and trends. We know Hakuho is going to win 12-15 matches and Goiedo is going to be either 8-7 or 7-8. Now if we can only figure out how!

Nishikigi's start wasn't actually that great...it only appeared to be so at the time. Beating 2 ozeki and 2 yokozuna sounds incredible. But Kise has retired, Kak withdrew, Tochi withdrew, and Goiedo is doing Goiedo things. One day he may boast to his grandkids about his great 4-0 start: but hopefully they aren't too inquisitive!