messi19

Yes that makes sense. One question remains though: If the rikishi fighting an additional bout ends up winning that one (which didn't happen in Hoshizakura's case), will the extra win have an influence on his banzuke ranking next basho? Or is the rikishi fighting in a "practice bout" which won't be taken into consideration when the next banzuke is created and the bout only ends up being important for the opponent who is appearing in his 7th bout? Had Hoshizakura won the bout would his record have been considered as a 3-4 or a 2-5 regardless? There is a problem related with each scenario: 1.) If it is no more than a practice bout the rikishi may not fight with the same fire/motivation as he would if it were to count for the banzuke ranking 2.) If it does count for the banzuke the rikishi is totally favoured over all the other rikishi who would have finished with the same record

Nope he only fought makushita guys in each of his 8 bouts! http://sumodb.sumogames.com/Rikishi_basho....03&b=200507 Makes it all the more confusing, doesn't it? ;-)

When browsing Hoshizakura's results on the database I came across the Nagoya 2005 basho where the Mongolian finished with a 2-6 record from Ms12W. http://sumodb.sumogames.com/Rikishi.aspx?r=1103 What made Hoshizakura have 8 bouts in a makushita tournament not including a kettei-sen? I'm totally confused. ;-)

Well, as I said I only ranked those who were on the Haru Juryo Banzuke leaving out Tochinohana because he is intai by now, but I would've ranked him in Tier 4 along with Asofuji, Satoyama etc.. Tamanoshima is going down to juryo in large part due to his ongoing injury issues - I think he's going to make it back to makuuchi and not end up a Tier 2 guy like Otsukasa - at least not yet. Tier 2 guys in my rating system only include those rikishi who are not really makuuchi calibre, but good enough to make it to makuuchi every now and then. Tamanoshima is not yet one of them although Tosanoumi may soon be. But I can see your point. Another Tier would have to be invented for Tamanoshima and Iwakiyama who was a tremendous force whenever he dropped to juryo in 2007. As for Hakurozan, in Osaka he will be ranked juryo for the third time in 6 basho without showing Iwakiyama like domination. He was a solid makuuchi rikishi in 2006, but makuuchi has become tougher with newcomers such as Goeido, Toyohibiki, Tochiozan, Ichihara and he will have to step it up if he is to rise above Tier 2. ;-)

This is probably off topic but as it has something to do with the interesting points made by kaiguma I'm going to mention it. Looking at the Hatsu Juryo Banzuke I think it would be possible dividing the rikishi into 5 different tiers. Tier 1 (Rikishi who are in juryo only in a temporary period on their way to makuuchi and, once they have made it, probably not returning to juryo any time soon): Tochinoshin, Sakaizawa Tier 2 (Rikishi who are very competitive at juryo level, but not quite able to stay in makuuchi long-term and thus bouncing back and forth between the two divisions): Otsukasa, Ryuo, Hakurozan, Kitazakura, Hochiyama, Toyozakura, Ushiomaru, Kasuganishiki. Tier 3 (Rikishi who - barring injury - have proven to be in no immediate danger of falling to makushita and if by fluke they do drop down will make it back to juryo and quickly establish themselves at this level once again, but have not yet proven they can make it into tier 2 although they certainly do have the potential to make it at some point in their career and with a leap in development perhaps even do better than that - IMO these are the most interesting rikishi to keep an eye on long-term): Koryu, Mokonami, Hakuba, Shirononami, Kotokasuga, Kitataiki, Masatsukasa, Chiyohakuho. I am aware that for instance Kotokasuga had made it to juryo already a couple of years ago before losing sekitori status for a long time, but his sumo over the last couple of basho has quite impressed me and I'm fairly positive he is a much improved rikishi compared to back then) Tier 4 (Rikishi who have been in makuuchi in the past, but are extremely unlikely to make it back there and rather have to take care of not dropping to makushita) : Katayama, Shunketsu... Asofuji, Satoyama once they make it back to juryo fit this category as well. Tier 5 (Recent arrivals from makushita who have not yet shown they can stay at sekitori level for an extended period of time. This is not to say that they should be written off, but they just haven't proven themselves yet and really do not fit any other tier): These are obviously Wakakoyu, Kirinowaka, Kimurayama. I guess Sagatsukasa who will be returning to juryo is in a similar situation for now To be honest, I do not know where to rank Hoshihikari and Tamawashi. I can easily imagine Tamawashi turning out to be a consistent tier 3 level type of rikishi, but he may also make it tier 1 - who knows? Hoshihikari because of his extremely unorthodox style is probably the hardest to rank. If he bulks up he could well become a tier 1 guy - if he doesn't he is unlikely to rise above tier 2. With the dynamics which have been mentioned by kaiguma it will be interesting to see whether many of these tier 2 rikishi can maintain their current level of performance any longer. For example I can easily imagine Toyozakura and Ushiomaru becoming tier 4 type of rikishi due to the fact that stronger rikishi are dropping from makuuchi (such as Tamanoshima) and more Tochinoshin's are bound to make their sekitori debut this year [and in the long-term forcing strong makuuchi vets to become permanent juryo rikishi). The interesting thing is that the window of opportunity for many of the tier 3 rikishi may in fact have passed or be passing due to these developments. While most of them are probably way too solid to be dropping to tier 4 in the near future there is no doubt that the arrival of the strong veteran makuuchi and young hopeful makushita rikishi will make it much harder to be moving up to the tier 2 category. Logically, as tier 2 guys are moving down the banzuke, rikishi of a lower tier such as tier 3 are put at a disadvantage as they are moving down as well *unless* they make a leap in development. It will be fascinating to follow how many of them are actually going to make it to makuuchi at one point.

797 pics The Banzuke

Higginbotham: Here is an example which I hope will illustrate my point to you: In Hatsu 2008 Satoyama, Asofuji and Tochinohana are likely to be among those demoted to makushita making it three former makuuchi rikishi. In Kyushu 2007 Jumonji was demoted to makushita. In Aki 2007 Ryuho, Tamarikido and Daimanazuru were demoted. In Natsu 2007 Kobo, Tochisakae and Takanowaka were demoted. This makes it 10 former makuuchi to be demoted to makushita over the span of 5 basho. Now what about the former makuuchi demoted in recent times before that? Haru 2007: No former makuuchi were demoted Hatsu 2007: Wakatoba was demoted to makushita Kyushu 2006: Tamaasuka was demoted to makushita (same basho when Jumonji was still capable of taking the juryo yusho!) Aki 2006: Buyuzan was demoted to makushita Nagoya 2006: Harunoyama was demoted Natsu 2006: Not one former makuuchi was demoted to makushita Haru 2006: Takanotsuru and Toki were demoted Hatsu 2006: Tamaasuka again Kyushu 2005: Yotsukasa and Chiyotenzan were demoted Aki 2005: Not one former makuuchi was demoted As you will have noticed a total of eight former makuuchi rikishi were demoted over that span -- a span of 10 basho. This easily fails to match the 10 rikishi who were demoted over the span of the last 5 basho. This is the increase in terms of competitiveness in juryo which I was talking about. In Conclusion: While there have of course always been veteran rikishi eventually going back to makushita in recent basho the number of those has increased dramatically. Hence the poll to try and work out who will be the next sekitori in line. Thanks to Manekineko!

I'm aware of that, but I guess my point is that over the last year or so you will have noted a clear increase of quality in juryo forcing rikishi who were decently successful as recently as 2006 to drop out of it by now. Rikishi such as Daimanazuru, Ryuho who were able to make it to makuuchi during a period of lesser quality (2006) are no longer capable of surviving in juryo (Asashosakari pointed this out in another thread). That's why we now see rikishi such as Jumonji and Tochinohana either struggling in makushita or retiring from the sport. In 2006 Jumonji kk'd twice in makuuchi and won the juryo yusho in November. Tochinohana spent all of 2006 as a solid makuuchi rikishi. The juryo division has gotten tougher as a whole. Due to the fact that there are quite a few talented youngsters coming up I do expect this trend to continue.

Lately we have seen quite a few veteran rikishi dropping out of juryo -some of these are now retired but most had enjoyed some decent success in makuuchi not too long ago: Tochinohana, Jumonji, Tamarikido, Kobo, Takanowaka, Daimanazuru, Ryuho just off the top of my head. I was wondering who you consider to be the next in line? Ushiomaru? Katayama? Toyozakura? Shunketsu? Kasuganishiki? You can name several ones. With young talents like Aran, Kyokushuho, Minami, Sasaki, Ri and others coming up some others must be bound to lose sekitori status sooner rather than later. Btw: This is not saying some of the aforementioned ones like Jumonji will never make it back to juryo, but with the young hopefuls on their way up chances are not exactly increasing either. edit: I wanted to make a poll out of this, but it wouldn't let me.

For the first time in his career Masunoyama (ranked Sd34w) suffered a second consecutive MK although it was another 3-4. I mentioned this last basho, but I continue to be fascinated by the fact that Masunoyama continues to lose only by nage and pull-downs..in this basho he lost all of his bouts by pull-downs (hikiotoshi mainly) and has only been overpowered once in his career (oshidashi back in jonidan). This indicates to me that Masunoyama must employ a fairly risky tachi-ai making him susceptible to these kinds of losses though it is hard to tell when there is no coverage. At the age of 17 there is no reason to worry though. It is all a good learning experience.

You know this goes the other way around too. Since Hakuho became a real threat to win the yusho at the beginning of 2006 how many yusho has Asashoryu won with Hakuho present and healthy? Only two. Haru 2006 Nagoya 2006 Aki 2006 - no (carrying injuries) Kyushu 2006 - no (injured) Hatsu 2007 - no (coming back from injury - IIRC only doing keiko with non-sekitori) Nagoya 2007- no (as most previous Yokozuna including Asa struggling in their debut basho) Hakuho is now just as much a candidate to win the yusho as is Asashoryu every basho. And he produced a magnificent performance today.

I'd nominate Toyonoshima-Hakuho and Toyonoshima-Asashoryu. The Yokozuna have been in a totally different class (I guess they're supposed to be!), but their bouts with Toyonoshima were very close decisions in each case and everyone was just holding their breath totally. Ama-Asashoryu was a good one too, but despite the great resistance by Ama there at the edge on Asashoryu's initial yorikiri attempt it was pretty clear at least to me that Asashoryu was going to win as soon as the bout turned into a yotsu contest. But Toyonoshima came *so* close to beating Asashoryu and almost as close in his bout against Hakuho..

Tamawashi looks promising indeed.. As for the others, I think Hakuba and Hoshihikari are going to make makuuchi eventually, Koryu may even be there for Haru, but whether they will stay there long-term is of course another question. This was discussed in a similar thread in the poll-section last december where I was wondering about the future of Mokonami/Koryu/Hakuba and there were lots of different opinions.

If Koryu manages to beat Kirinowaka tomorrow all Mongolian sekitori will have reached KK. Pretty remarkable.

Really excited about the fact that Kyokushuho made it to makushita this quickly. At the age of 19 more so. Considering that he has already beat several rikishi who have proven themselves capable of KK'ing in makushita (including Aoba three times) I predict another solid KK in his makushita debut.

I wouldn't say "likely". Kakuryu has four wins against Rikishi already MK, three more against likely MKs and one against a slumping Futeno. Fair play to him for doing good sumo for a change but I'd still put my money on Waka in a head to head without a henka. Well Wakanoho so far has not defeated any rikishi who are KK already nor any who are extremely likely to make it (couple of ones at 6-6)..except the victory over Kakuryu of course but we know how that happened..Wakanoho is obviously very strong at yotsu as the bout vs. Tochiozan again illustrated but Kakuryu is one of the smartest rikishi out there and he would have been my favourite especially considering Wakanoho's lack of experience. Perhaps I am overrating him, but I'd go as far as saying that Kakuryu is along with Goeido the most complete (technically speaking) rikishi Wakanoho has faced since he made sekitori(I know he has been up against Baruto and Wakanosato since then, but Waka didn't exactly face them in their prime and I'd take Kakuryu over the current versions of these two).

Just thought about the fact that one of the two losses of Kakuryu came at the hands of the Wakanoho flight show and how he would likely be up there for a threesome Mongolian lead if he had been taken straight on! He really deserves a sansho for his efforts this basho.

A third straight shukun-sho for Ama? I guess they'll be handing out two this time (Kisenosato and Ama) unless one of them fails to achieve his KK. edit: It would be too funny if Aminishiki actually upset Asashoryu for the 3rd time in a row. Each of the yokozuna would have their different Isegahama nemesis now while they seem to totally control the other one (Hakuho hasn't come close to losing to Aminishiki for a while now)

I agree with all of the ones that have been mentioned. The most surprising could well be Homasho. He either totally lacks confidence or there's some injury preventing him from doing his brand of sumo. This is the same rikishi who not too long ago had everyone singing praises and talking about ozeki. It was about the same time when Kisenosato was considered to have stalled in his progress. How quickly things can change.

This is actually bad news for all of the other ozeki as they are struggling to reach KK because they now miss out on a sure win. It also means tomorrow is the last sanyaku bout for Kotoshogiku against Hakuho..if he somehow manages the upset does he have a "Miyabiyama Natsu 2006" in him? In any case he could really be getting an ozeki run started (or continued).

Kakuryu seems to have now reached a point where he is easily capable of KK when ranked mid-maegashira while still struggling to do so when ranked among the joi-jin. I'm quite impressed by his development. The improvements are noticeable. A year ago he wasn't just losing more bouts to lesser competition but was getting completely blown away - often oshidashi'd in about two seconds whereas nowadays he can absorb the opponents tachi-ai much better and as the bout goes on chances of a Kakuryu win keep increasing. (Sign of approval...)

That makes him nine days younger than Masunoyama. I wonder who will have the better career. They fought it out for quite a while when Masunoyama went to Takadagawa beya prior to Kyushu basho. Ryuden was doing a bit better.

Not to mention that Ama doesn't go for a straight-on-first-then-shift-to-the-side type of tachi-ai all that often anyway. Most of the time he just goes all out trying to blow his opponent close to the tawara, obtain a strong grip in the process and finish the job off after that in case the initial hit has not been sufficient.

Nishinoshima, You're on to something with your observations - what Ama does at times is take his opponent straight on and then lighting-quick step to the side.. the wikipedia entry though states that Ama often does use henka and that's what sekihiryu was refering to..by the way: even though Ama is a muscled man he doesn't have too many options when it comes to battling the likes of Baruto, Kotooshu, Kotomitsuki, does he?..compared to these he looks about as small-sized as normally-sized people look compared to Ama! Therefore, and due to the fact that Ama is blessed with amazing speed, I don't consider it nearly as much of a shame as the outright henka which we see many other much heavier rikishi doing. Why shouldn't Ama take advantage of his speed the way Kotomitsuki takes advantage of his size when he easily yorikied Ama in last Natsu Basho? When a rikishi executes a pefect henka he robs his opponent of any chance to win the bout (see Asashoryu vs. Chiyotaikai in Haru)..Ama takes advantage of his speed, but the other guy can still very much adapt to these movements most of the time not to mention that through a forceful attack he can deny Ama of effectively using his speed in the first place.

Toyonoshima has come oh so very close to a kinboshi several times now. Of course he's got that one career kinboshi as a result of his aki victory, but he could have between three and five by now. I'm so glad he's up there and hope he will continue to be a hgue threat to the yokozuna/ozeki for a long time. Hakuho does indeed look very convincing and powerful - almost at the level we saw him fighting at in Natsu 2007. Will we have history repeating itself with a zensho yusho and Toyonoshima the only one actually coming close to beating him? We shall see 10 days from now.. (Clapping wildly...)