mokele

For starters, it's obvious now that Kotooshu is strictly a yotsu-zumo rikishi in spite of his height, long arms and long legs. The orthodox view about such matters (expressed a few times over the years by Andy Adams and Clyde Newton of Sumo World) is that, other things being equal, tall, long-legged rikishi are at a significant disadvantage in yotsu-zumo bouts because their hips are too high and their opponents can get under them and use leverage. Another part of that orthodox view is that tall rikishi in yotsu-zumo battles are often well-advised to use tsuri (lifting) techniques if they know how to do so, but Kotooshu only very rarely picks up an opponent. However, there are other things to consider, being training, technique and raw strength. Kotooshu is a huge man, basically much bigger than most other rikishi, and his weight is due mostly to his natural size rather than to a bunch of extra fat. Hence he has a big advantage in yotsu-zumo battles because of his basic strength advantage, which more than makes up for the fact that he has to make an effort to keep his hips low all the time. The secret to Kotooshu's success this basho was his ability to get a decent belt grip early in his bouts. He had an excellent tachi-ai the whole way, and once he got his belt grip his opponents couldn't handle his power. In any game or sport it's important to be able to learn both from victory and defeat. I feel that Kotooshu has learned a lot from victory this time, that he needs to be alert, pumped-up and aggressive at the tachi-ai to get a good belt grip, and if so, he can beat anyone! Bravo to Kotooshu, a fine example of traditional power yotsu-zumo.

It's the same old story with a great athlete that's been so admired and revered by sumo fans and even by peers that defer to him, letting him get away with unruliness, disrespect, etc. Asashoryu has been giving the extra shove, the extra slap to the back, a tap on the knee, a swipe across the back, and other questionable acts after winning bouts, for several years. The Kyokai didn't crack down on him while he was on the rise or in his early years as a yokozuna, and now this behavior is a habit by Asashoryu. He's not even thinking about it anymore. It's an automatic response. When he thinks about it he's more gracious in victory, but all too often he's running on "automatic pilot" which for him means the extra little act of aggression right after he wins a bout. In American football it's a bit like doing a little dance after scoring a touchdown. I really don't think that he meant disrespect to Hakuho. To him, Hakuho is just another rikishi that he defeated, and he wanted to add a little bit of panache to his win with an extra gesture, which he probably thought was harmless. It's not harmless though when millions of fans are watching, and hoping that 1 of the all-time great rikishi shows dignity and hinkaku. I've been watching carefully how other rikishi behave right after they win, and most are quite gracious, good examples being Kakizoe, Ama, Tamanoshima and Takamisakari. Of course several others could be included to that list. Those men are always gracious and respectful, and make an obvious effort to protect the safety of their opponent once it's clear that they have won the bout. That's the right attitude. Takanohana 2 (brother of Wakanohana) had that quality, which is why sumo fans loved and respected him. Now we can appreciate him even more, and other great rikishi that not only had skill and power, but self control and respect for the sport and for their adversaries.

I never felt that Kokkai was dull or a simpleton, and there is a long history of foreign-born rikishi taking longer to learn the fine art of yotsu-zumo compared to those born in Japan. Akebono and Musashimaru were both rather poor at yotsu-zumo at 1st, and only after they had been in Makunouchi for a few years did they begin to master belt fighting. Akebono's tsuppari was very powerful but he also became an excellent belt man, and used to beat Kotonishiki (and Musashimaru sometimes too) that way over and over. Expect Kokkai to gradually improve at it. He's been primarily on oshi-zumo rikishi until now though, so there will be some falling back into old habits. Kokkai doesn't use tsuppari or the nodo-wa much. Guys who specialize in tsuppari and the nodo-wa are often rikishi that never develop their yotsu-zumo skills to its proper potential. Anyway, Kokkai should eventually become a good belt man, although probably not as good as the Mongolians (Kyokutenho, Kakuryu, Ama, Asasekiryu, etc.). Hakuho and Asashoryu are great belt men of course, but they're strong at other stuff too. Of course things have changed a lot the past few years. Now you have big, foreign-born rikishi like Kotooshu and Baruto that are mainly yotsu-zumo specialists. I think it's great to see, and sumo will benefit from it in the long run. Roho is also basically a belt man, but he's really not so good at it yet, and relies on hatakikomi and henka too much. Kasugao (born in Korea) is an excellent belt man specializing in nage techniques. Back in the "old days" of Takamiyama and later Konishiki, there simply were no foreign born rikishi that were worth a darn at belt fighting.

I just watched the bout a couple hours ago on a French sumo site, and it was long and grueling, very tiring. Hakurozan was probably just exhausted. He's never been as surly as his brother Roho, but neither is he as strong. Hakurozan tends to wrestle too high. Guys get lower than him and use leverage against him. He looks like a guy who will never be able to stay in Makunouchi for more than 2 or 3 basho before getting sent back down to Juryo.

I just noticed how old Otsukasa is. He's really lasted a long time in the top 2 divisions. Although he's not very tall and is very fat, he's technically very good and capitalizes quite well on an opponent's mistakes. His physical talent level just isn't high enough though, and he's really done quite well to have had such a long and respectable career in both Makunouchi and Juryo. When he retires I hope and expect that he will lose a lot of weight. I bet that he could get to less than 200 lbs. very easily with the right diet plan.

Hokutoriki can't win a bout in a yotsu-zumo battle to save his life. If his nodo-wa or hatakikomi don't work, he's finished. He also is psychologically beaten before he even starts when facing the joi-jin, except for his one great basho when he finished at 13-2. I had the exact same problem with Toki, and many years ago, for those who can remember him, with Asanosho. It makes you wonder if these guys ever practiced belt fighting at all. Akebono became a great belt man, and so did Musashimaru, although they started out as mostly tsuppari and oshi rikishi. Chiyotaikai can win a belt fight occasionally and has a good sukuinage. I like well-rounded rikishi with all the skills.

I copied your questions and put my predictions in bold face. Of course I will be wrong a few times but these are my best guesses. Asashoryu - Can he bounce back with a yusho ? Yes, and with a few extra shoves while he's at it! Hakuho - Can he seal the deal and become yokozuna #69 ? Not yet, although within 2 years Chiyotaikai - Will he finally lose his grip on Ozeki ? Not yet, he's still strong and fast Kotomitsuki - Another double digit basho and he might head to July hoping to go for Ozeki ??? I doubt if he will make Ozeki. I remember when it took a long time for Kaio to make Ozeki, but Kotomitsuki is not nearly as consistent. He's never established himself at the 10-win per basho level. Ama - Consolidate in sanyaku or even start a push towards Ozeki ? I doubt that he will do either. Physically he reminds me a bit of Terao and also a bit of Kyokudozan, whose careers I followed since the early 1990s. Ama is better on the belt than Terao ever was, but still Ama lacks raw power, similar to Kyokudozan. He may stay near the top of maegashira for a few years though. Toyonoshima - Ready for regular sanyaku rank ? No. If he gets 6 wins this basho I will be both pleased (I like the stumpy little guy) and surprised. Homasho - Facing the joi-jin for first time. I expect him in sanyaku in July. Homasho is a good one. He stands a good chance to win 7 and maybe a 40% chance to make kachi-koshi. Tamanoshima - Back facing the big boys where he can (and hopefully will) cause trouble. I'm afraid not. He's big and strong but lacks a killer instinct. He will get wiped out by the sanyaku, and win maybe 5 or 6. Tochiozan - Will he hit a wall at M4 ? I tend to think not. Just low enough to avoid all of the big boys. He's a great young rikishi from what I've seen so far. He will do ok, maybe win 8. It's about an even bet. Wakanosato - Continue his move back up the banzuke ? Hopefully. Yes I think he will win 8 or 9. He's not quite through yet as a threat in makunouchi. Roho - Surely at this rank he's in for a big result ? Maybe but Roho will never be a sanyaku regular. He's too slow and technically limited. Miyabiyama - At this rank he must be a contender until the final days - and he did beat Asashoryu in March .... Miyabiyama is hard to predict. It's a safe bet that he will make kachi-koshi, but not much more.

Not quite... 2002.11: M10e 10-5 2003.01: M3w 11-4 2003.11: M14w 11-4 2004.01: M6e 10-5 2004.09: M5w 10-5 Yup, new post-1950s record*, the old one was 7 rikishi in 1981.01, 2003.07 and last basho. 6 Maegashira with 10-5 records is a new post-1950s record as well, the old one was 5, again in 2003.07 and last basho. And while we're at it, 7 Maegashira with 10 or more wins ties the post-50s record set in 2004.01 and repeated last basho, and 11 total Makuuchi rikishi with 10+ wins is yet another post-50s record. Two consecutive basho with many high-scoring Maegashira despite the Ozeki and the rest of sanyaku doing relatively well, hmm... (* post-1950s because Makuuchi consisted of 50+ rikishi for most of the 1940s and 1950s, rather than the ~40 it has been since then.) Thanks for the info on Dejima. I don"t have a complete record for his history in sumo. Huge thanks for the reference hakkeyoi.net (Neener, neener...) Years ago I formerly kept all my own records for rikishi, but I quit that a few years back. Now I can just look up their records. (Dohyo-iri...)

I'm in almost complete agreement with the top of your 2007 Hatsu basho banzuke. At the bottom, I don't have any problem with demoting Hokutoriki all the way down to Juryo. I've seen guys dropped down to Juryo with 0-15 (or equivalent) records from higher maegashira ranks than mae-5. Similarly, Tamanoshima's 2-9 record at M7 is bad enough to send him down to Juryo under ordinary circumstances. Hakurozan, Otsukasa and Asofuji should stay in Makunouchi. I would also hold my nose and keep Tosanoumi in the top division too, but his 5-10 result is bad enough that he might be tempted to retire unless he can find a way to blame it on an injury. Tochiozan and Asofuji should each be promoted to Makunouchi. They deserve equal consideration, and it would be unfair to promote 1 without the other. The only other guy who deserves consideration for promotion from Juryo is Wakanosato, but coming all the way from Juryo-11 with a 10-5 record is simply not appropriate. So the only really tough choice for me is whether to demote Tamanoshima to Juryo. My preference is to keep him in makunouchi but that might mean that tochiozan or Asofuji will have to go

Miyabiyama came through in the clutch again too. I still doubt that he will make it back to ozeki a 2nd time but you have to admire his persistence and resilience. Kokkai and Aminishiki will drop out of sanyaku and will be replaced at Komusubi by Kotoshogiku and Dejima. If I'm not mistaken, Dejima's 10-5 record is his 1st double digit kachi-koshi since he was demoted from ozeki several years ago. I'm happy to see it. (Neener, neener...) Dejima has 1 of the most powerful tachi-ai and de-ashi oshi attacks I've ever seen, and if he stays healthy he can join Miyabiyama at making 1 last run at regaining the ozeki rank. Something very odd happened this basho: 9 guys finished in Makunouchi with records of 10-5. That must be the most ever rikishi in the top division with that result.

Southern California, been following sumo since 1992. I've been relying on banzuke.com for several years now, ever since Sumo Digest was taken off the air in the late 1990s. For the Nagoya basho I was happy to download the bouts from the French site http://www.info-sumo.net/info/modules.php?name=Downloads I don't speak French so I don't know what's going on with that site this basho, but the movies of the bouts are nowhere to be found as of the 9th day of the basho.

I've followed Kaio's entire career in the top division from his shin-nyumaku basho when he went 4-11 and was sent back down to Juryo. I remember a year back in the late 1990s when Kaio won 60 bouts even before he was promoted to ozeki. At the time I felt that he was the strongest sekiwake I had ever seen. It took awhile but he was eventually promoted to ozeki. He had a great rivalry with Musashimaru over the course of their careers. At one point I seem to recall that Kaio beat Musashimaru 8 straight times. Today Kaio seems to be suffering a similar fate that befell Musashimaru a few years ago, namely that he's too heavy to be effective anymore when he's not in top shape, suffering from a minor injury, etc. The same thing also happened to Konishiki many years ago. It's a common failing of so many rikishi. They develop habits of keeping a lot of extra weight on, eating too much, etc. while they are in their teens and early 20s, and those habits die hard. I figure that Kaio will retire very soon, maybe after this basho. We shall see.

Great work. It appears that the designation "kun-roku ozeki" is hardly a severe criticism in light of the roughly 65% score that ozeki have averaged over the period in which your study covered. I suppose that the reason that the average score for ozeki seems a bit low is that ozeki become kadoban fairly often, maybe around 15 to 20% of the time, scoring fewer than 8 wins in a basho in the process but struggling through the whole 15 days. Yokozuna typically drop out of a basho when they have gotten off to a poor start and this saves them from some embarrassing results over a full 15 days. Long gone are the days of former yokozuna Chiyonoyama who scored only 6 wins in a complete basho once and asked the Sumo Kyokai to demote him to ozeki! I was surprised to see that most of the maegashira ranks score less than 50%. I would have guessed that the middle to lower ranks would score a bit higher, but on 2nd thought it makes sense since some of the lower ranking maegashira get poor scores and are demoted to Juryo.

There are many different styles in sumo. To designate a rikishi as either tsuki/oshi or yori/nage is really to ignore the unique skills and styles that many guys have. Chiyotaikai is really a windmill tsuppari, oshi, hataki and sukuinage wrestler. Although he's not especially good on the belt, his sukuinage is quite powerful. I remember his victories over former yokozuna Wakanohana with that technique. Chiyotaikai doesn't seem to be very flexible but rather compact, quick and powerful, and his physical attributes are probaby responsible for his sumo style. He can fight on the belt, but like so many rikishi that rely on tsuppari or oshi he feels psychologically defeated when he's forced into gappuri-yotsu battles. I'll bet that if he decided to abandon his windmill tsuppari style and use all oshi and yotsu-zumo for a complete basho that he would still score 9-6 or 8-7 if he was in good health. Some rikishi never seem to learn yotsu-zumo, current examples being Toki and Hokutoriki, and for those who've followed sumo for a few years, Aogiyama and Asanosho from several years ago. In the early years Musashimaru had little skill on the belt but he gradually improved to being very effective at yotsu-zumo. He never had many techniques but didn't need them because of his size and strength. Akebono was the same way. Later in his career Akebono chose to use either his powerful tsuppari attack or else a yotsu-zumo attack depending on his opponent. Such versatility is admirable. I have a high regard for versatility in a rikishi. Asashoryu is a good current example. Hakuho may become more versatile as he gains experience but like many great yotsu-zumo rikishi he will always be primarily a yorikiri, uwatenage and oshidashi guy.

Skillfully done. I agree with most of those choices. Dejima might be placed above Kyokutenho and Iwakiyama might be placed above Ama though. In fact, I expect Dejima to be placed above Tamakasuga as well. We shall see!

These numerical ratings are very similar to those in the chess world, and your work is similar in some ways to that of Jeff Sonas: http://db.chessmetrics.com/ In any case it's a great idea. I've been a sumo fan since around 1992, diligently watching every basho as long as I could access it. I've noticed that the Kyokai doesn't have a strict or well-defined manner in which the ranking of a maegashira rikishi changes from 1 basho to the next. The only thing that a sumo fan seems to know is that, among maegashira, a rikishi's ranking rises (if there's room for him to rise of course) if he scores kachi-koshi and falls with a make-koshi result, and better scores result in a greater rise in the ranking whereas a very bad result results in a large drop in the ranking. Sekiwake and komusubi will invariably drop out of sanyaku if they win less than 7 bouts in a basho, and will at least keep their ranking if they score kachi-koshi. 1 thing that a numerical rating for rikishi could do is to allow a fairly reliable prediction of how a rikishi will do in a given basho based on his rating and the ratings of his opponents. Of course intangible factors are involved too such as injuries and other health issues. Also, psychological factors seem to play a role, as the plethora of "elevator rikishi" demonstrates. Many of the maegashira rikishi have good results when ranked near the bottom of Makunouchi but have disastrous results when ranked near the top. I suspect that this phenomena is due not just to the strength of the rikishi they face but their mental attitude as well. It's a complicated issue. Anyway, great research and study! It is appreciated.

Fantastic! It's like watching the old Sumo Digests that we used to get televised here in California back in the late 1990s. This is a great addition to Carlson's banzuke.com. Thanks! :-P

Isn't straight ahead, face first tachiai the standard and what the oyakatas want to see from they rikishis? It's often a matter of honor to move forward with speed and power at the tachi-ai, but of course not every rikishi is built to wrestle that way. Kokkai certainly is built for that type of sumo though, as are many of the bigger, stronger guys who prefer oshi-zumo over yotsu-zumo. I honestly don't think that Kokkai's tachi-ai is that bad. In fact it's better than that of Tosanoumi who often gets slapped down because he's not watching where he's going! I like Tosanoumi, an honest-to-goodness oshi-zumo rikishi who grunts with extreme effort in many of his bouts, but his career is unfortunately winding down, and he's struggling to stay in Makunouchi.

Actually I have mentioned it. If you observe vigilantly you will also see that he already is sure of promotion to komusubi even if he loses tomorrow. Show me someone else who'll get promoted instead. I just looked and thought about it and I agree that with a 10-5 score at maegashira 5, Kokkai should replace Asasekiryu as komusubi for the Aki basho. His main competition will come from Baruto who scored 9-6 at maegashira 4, and from Roho, who scored 8-5-2 at maegashira 3. The Kyokai don't seem to have a hard and fast rule in such cases. My rule of thumb is to take the maegashira rank, subtract it from ([2 x wins] - 15) for the current basho and then compare the resulting statistic for the various maegashira. The one with the highest number then deserves promotion to an available sanyaku rank. If the numbers are the same, give the nod to the rikishi who has the higher rank on the current banzuke. If this seems vague or mysterious just send me a message and I'll try and clarify it by examples.

Although I have a strong preference for technically sound, muscular and athletic rikishi, conventional wisdom in sumo has always been that a rikishi should carry a comfortable amount of fat in order to hold his ground in gappuri-yotsu or oshi battles. Kotooshu has very little excess weight at all, maybe only 20 or 30 lbs. I honestly think that he would have far fewer close shaves like he had this basho if he were a bit heavier, maybe by 20 lbs. or so. Then if he was suffering from a minor injury he could still win some of the bouts that he is losing even without a great tachi-ai. At his current weight he desperately needs a strong tachi-ai or else he ends up pushed back or thrown down. Furthermore he almost never uses tsuppari. A man of 6'8" should use tsuppari occasionally against select rikishi, partly for surprise and partly to gain an early advantage in order to get a favorable belt grip. It would make some of his bouts easier. Personally I like Kotooshu and his clean, classical yotsu-zumo style, but I see no harm if he puts on a few pounds and uses a bit of tsuppari once in awhile.

Takamisakari is 1 of my favorite rikishi but it's not because his sumo is very impressive. In fact, for a rikishi that is always in good shape and not very fat, he has a notoriously slow tachi-ai, and quite often gets pushed back in the early stages of a torikumi. Therefore, trying a henka against him is quite foolish. It's the same old story with Kyokushuzan. When he's not having a good basho his sumo is absolutely awful, a collection of ill-timed and unconventional moves that typically see him quickly blasted off the dohyo. It's not so bad to lose a lot of bouts if you're moving forward and giving a good effort, but it really looks bad to lose so many bouts moving backwards and side-stepping at the tachi-ai. Kyokushuzan looks like a totally different rikishi when he's ranked in the bottom half of the maegashira list. It must be a common psychological thing since so many rikishi have the same problem.

I'm a little disappointed in the Kyokai's decision, particularly in the case of Miyabiyama who showed great fighting spirit and hinkaku in winning his last 5 bouts in a row. Maybe their decision to withhold ozeki promotion is because of Miyabiyama's previous poor run as ozeki several years ago, and they want him to demonstrate ozeki level sumo for 1 more basho. Personally I feel that another 10-5 result in the Aki basho should guarantee him ozeki promotion. I am not really disappointed that Hakuho will stay as an ozeki for the Aki basho. He is clearly the #2 man in sumo now, but he's only been an ozeki for 2 basho now and has only 1 yusho to his credit. Why not at least allow a couple more basho at ozeki before they promote him. If he wins the Aki basho in impressive fashion (say 13-2 or better) I would favor his promotion, but otherwise it is wise to allow him a bit more time as ozeki. He appears to be strong enough to be a yokozuna already but he's young and has plenty of time to achieve sumo's highest rank. It is very unwise to promote an ozeki to yokozuna before he has truly demonstrated that he can maintain a high level of performance for several basho in succession. The stories of the careers of Futahaguro (a boorish and uncontrollable disaster) and Onokuni (a nice guy but a poor yokozuna) should be fair warning.

Once again I have to agree with all 5 of those predictions, although I don't favor Asashoryu over Hakuho by very much. Even though Asashoryu's form is excellent he has already won the yusho and might suffer a letdown in effort on senshuraku, while Hakuho will be highly motivated to win because of the chance of imminent yokozuna promotion. It's a close call. I say the odds are 55-45 in favor of Asashoryu. Roho will be highly motivated to win on senshuraku because it will mean kachi-koshi, while Kotomitsuki has already resigned himself to another mediocre result as a sekiwake. Overall Kotomitsuki is the stronger rikishi but he won't show it on senshuraku. Kotooshu will be highly motivated to win on senshuraku and avoid becoming kadoban for the Aki basho. Tochiazuma has not been anywhere close to full strength from around day 9 onward so it should be an easy bout for Kotooshu. Kaio has had very good success against Chiyotaikai during their long rivalry, and although Kaio is older and appears slower and more shopworn he has the style to beat Chiyotaikai if he's anywhere close to full strength. Kaio does not have that much left to his career and will probably retire fairly soon, within a year or so. It's another close call, Kaio's style pitted against Chiyotaikai's youth and energy. No mention has been made of the excellent result put together by Kokkai. If he wins on senshuraku his 11 wins have a good chance of giving him a promotion to komusubi. I have to go with him over Tochinonada.

With 10-5 in the 2006 Haru basho 14-1 in the 2006 Natsu basho 10-5 in the 2006 Nagoya basho Miyabiyama would have 34 wins in 3 consecutive basho while in sanyaku. This is sufficient for ozeki promotion under ordinary circumstances. Personally I would approve of it. I would put aside my dislike of his type of sumo and give him the proper reward for his achievements. Yes there are 5 ozeki already but only 1 yokozuna, so I see no reason to withhold Miyabiyama's re-promotion to ozeki. Of course if he loses on senshuraku I would change my attitude entirely. I can't see a promotion to ozeki following a 9-6 score. That puts a tremendous amount of pressure on Miyabiyama to win but winning under pressure is exactly what it takes to be an ozeki. His bout with Tamanoshima should be exciting! Tamanoshima has never been much of a pressure performer and I would be shocked if he beats Miyabiyama under such circumstances.

I agree with all of those predictions. Tochiazuma was doing so well during the 1st week that his recent string of losses indicate an injury, either a new one or a recurring problem. It's a shame as he's a very strong ozeki when he's in good health. Miyabiyama has surprised me too. I figured that after his early losses he would lose heart and end up with make koshi, but much to my surprise he has put together a winning streak and has an outside chance at ozeki re-promotion if he wins his last 2. His style is not my favorite but his fighting spirit is admirable. I see a slight similarity between Kisenosato and Wakanosato from a few years ago. Both are very strong yotsu-zumo rikishi. Kisenosato is a little bit taller and has surged to the higher ranks sooner than Wakanosato did, but my sense is that Kisenosato will be unable to become ozeki, at least for a few years, but instead will bounce back and forth between sanyaku and the higher maegashira ranks, much like Wakanosato has done. Hakuho will become a yokozuna soon but not after this basho. He certainly appears to be the #2 man in sumo at the moment though. I really love his style, based on balance, strength and yotsu-zumo technique. His style is that of a slightly taller, more mobile but less powerful version of Kaio from a few years ago. I don't know what's wrong with Kotooshu but it seems quite clear now that if he's not in good health his lack of weight makes it easier for his foes to muscle him in yotsu-zumo battles. I was never convinced that a 6'8" rikishi should be strictly a yotsu-zumo specialist. Akebono won many bouts with a powerful tsuppari attack, staying out of range of his far shorter opponents, and Kotooshu should add that to his repertoire when facing much shorter, less mobile rikishi. As Chiyotaikai has said in the past, he's not a man who comes to a sumo bout with a bag of tricks. He's just a straightforward windmill tsuppari, hataki and oshi man, and this makes him an easy target for Asashoryu. Once Asashoryu demonstrated an ability to withstand Chiyotaikai's very best windmill tsuppari attack the rivalry has been totally 1-sided in Asashoryu's favor.