Hakuho

[ikishima]

I had to disconnect my home computer during a move and haven't been checking up on the basho. Why is there no talk about Hakuho? With a 9-2 record he still is in the running to finish at 13-2 and have a chance at promotion.

Is he out of form? Did that first day loss quiet his supporters? What is the story?

Edited July 19, 2006 by ikishima

[Guest Super Sumo Fan]

I had to disconnect my home computer during a move and haven't been checking up on the basho. Why is there no talk about Hakuho? With a 9-2 record he still is in the running to finish at 13-2 and have a chance at promotion.

Is he out of form? Did that first day loss quiet his supporters? What is the story?

I would have to say that with Asashoryu still to battle, his chances of finishing 13-2 are slim to none. Asashoryu is on his A-game this basho. I believe Hakuho will have a good enough record that they will carry it over to the next basho and keep him in the running, but, in my opinion, he will not go into the next basho as a Yokozuna.

[Doitsuyama]

I had to disconnect my home computer during a move and haven't been checking up on the basho. Why is there no talk about Hakuho? With a 9-2 record he still is in the running to finish at 13-2 and have a chance at promotion.

Is he out of form? Did that first day loss quiet his supporters? What is the story?

I would have to say that with Asashoryu still to battle, his chances of finishing 13-2 are slim to none. Asashoryu is on his A-game this basho. I believe Hakuho will have a good enough record that they will carry it over to the next basho and keep him in the running, but, in my opinion, he will not go into the next basho as a Yokozuna.

Now, that statement is too harsh. Hakuho clearly can beat Asashoryu, even if he is in top form. His chance is finishing 13-2 does exist, and I'm going so far to calculate them at 16%. First he has to beat three ozeki which won't be easy anyway.

Now, I'm already smelling the stink of foul conspirationists throwing out their theories when we actually see a 14-0 Asashoryu losing to a 12-2 Hakuho on senshuraku...

Back to the original question, the problem is that Hakuho just doesn't generate many talks at all. He seems to be lacking some charisma, and being the "second Mongolian" doesn't help. Musashimaru also didn't generate much hype at the time of his yokozuna promotion. It also is a media thing, as they can decide who to push (often not a conscious decision as well), just look at the Kotooshu hype a year ago, and Kotooshu isn't exactly bristling with charisma as well, just look at his post bout comments.

[Yuriyama Ren]

Now, I'm already smelling the stink of foul conspirationists throwing out their theories when we actually see a 14-0 Asashoryu losing to a 12-2 Hakuho on senshuraku...

Yeah what's with this "Hakuho should know his place" that Asa said back in June. It was obviously a devious scheme that would make his loss on senshuuraku more credible. And didn't Asa fix Hakuho up with a keshou mawashi a while ago? They're in league and it goes waaaaaay back.. (Clapping wildly...)

[Ryukaze]

Ren say whu......? and Doitsuyama-sama curious as to how you calculated Hakuho's chances of winning at precisely 16% (???) I'd say with Asashoryu already having climbed one of his really only two hurdles (Tochiazuma and Hakuho) this basho is as good as over......Im not sure what the kyokai was thinking matching the two up on only day 11 (maybe hoping Tochiazuma would somehow win to make things more interesting, but at the risk of him not....! (Dribbling...) ) With still the Yokozuna and Tochiazuma to face Hakuho will need a miracle to finish at 13-2 not too mention whether it will carry over or not......while the Yokozuna should he even loose to Hakuho will only need to beat Taikai and Kaio (I'd give those to a .001% chance of winning (Clapping wildly...) ) as for Kotooshu his sumo hasn't been worth crap for a while so I would expect nothing more, all I can say is I hope im wrong but as usual I DOUBT IT!............... (Sign of approval)

Edited July 19, 2006 by Ryukaze

[Doitsuyama]

Doitsuyama-sama curious as to how you calculated Hakuho's chances of winning at precisely 16% (???)

I have a formula for that which might or might not be crap. 16% is just the output of that formula which is no magic and explained elsewhere but I won't bother to go into the details here.

[Bataa]

IMO ALMOST MORE THAN 80% OF US IN MONGOLIA SUPPORT HAKUHO ,MAYBE WE'RE JUST TOO BORED OF ASA.AND SOONER OR LATER HAKUHO WILL BECOME A YOKOZUNA BEFORE ANY OTHER RIKISHI.KINDA FEEL SORRY FOR KAIO AND TOCHI,THEY BOTH LACKED MENTAL STRENGTH EVEN THOUGH THEY HAD TALENT.SAD BUT TRUE

Edited July 19, 2006 by Bataa

[Asashosakari]

Doitsuyama-sama curious as to how you calculated Hakuho's chances of winning at precisely 16% (???)

I have a formula for that which might or might not be crap. 16% is just the output of that formula which is no magic and explained elsewhere but I won't bother to go into the details here.

Any chance to get the individual winning percentages for the four bouts? (I know, I know, I could calculate them myself... (Clapping wildly...))

Im not sure what the kyokai was thinking matching the two up on only day 11 (maybe hoping Tochiazuma would somehow win to make things more interesting, but at the risk of him not....! (Dribbling...) )

What if they had delayed the Asashoryu-Tochiazuma bout to Day 14 and Shoryu had ended up with a 3-win lead after 13 days? It's easy to construct scenarios where a different scheduling would make things more exciting; it's just as easy to come up with a scenario where the change turns into a complete bust.

Edited July 19, 2006 by Asashosakari

[Oimeru]

Fun with the normal distribution and Elo ratings:

Asashoryu vs. Kotooshu: 80-20

Chiyotaikai vs. Kotomitsuki: 60-40

Kaio vs. Kyokutenho: 62-38

Hakuho - Tochiazuma: 61-39

Miyabiyama - Baruto: 74-26

I did not double check these, so no guarantee..

[Doitsuyama]

Doitsuyama-sama curious as to how you calculated Hakuho's chances of winning at precisely 16% (???)

I have a formula for that which might or might not be crap. 16% is just the output of that formula which is no magic and explained elsewhere but I won't bother to go into the details here.

Any chance to get the individual winning percentages for the four bouts? (I know, I know, I could calculate them myself... (Clapping wildly...))

Yeah, why not? Asashoryu 44%, Chiyotaikai 71%, Kaio 78% and Tochiazuma 66%. Calculation with Excel is quite simple, the formula would be NORMDIST(R1-R2,0,286,TRUE). And you calculate them yourself of course, but I don't really use the ratings on my page, as I have some modifictaions, so the results can be slightly (or not) different.

[Oimeru]

And:

Hakuho vs. Chiyotaikai: 71-29

Hakuho vs. Kaio: 74-26

Hakuho vs. Asashoryu: 39-61

I arrive at 12.5%, but that's using pre-basho ratings -- and possibly some mistakes a computer would not make :)

Edit: and the man himself has even a better secret formula of course...

Edited July 19, 2006 by Oimeru

[aderechelsea]

I had to disconnect my home computer during a move and haven't been checking up on the basho. Why is there no talk about Hakuho? With a 9-2 record he still is in the running to finish at 13-2 and have a chance at promotion.

Is he out of form? Did that first day loss quiet his supporters? What is the story?

short story is that i was not around here all this time ... now that i am back i will overhype him to a degree that you will start hating him ... (Clapping wildly...)

(Dribbling...)

[Sashohitowa]

Do you think that, with (eventual) 12-3 result this basho and with (eventual) 13-2 in the next one Hakuho will be promoted to Yokozuna?

And do you think he SHOULD be?

[Bishonohana]

Do you think that, with (eventual) 12-3 result this basho and with (eventual) 13-2 in the next one Hakuho will be promoted to Yokozuna?

And do you think he SHOULD be?

In my humble opinion, YES and YES! (Clapping wildly...) (Nodding yes...) (Dribbling...)

[sumofan]

Actually, even if he goes 12-3 in the end, if he gets jun yusho that could technically still be enough to make him yokozuna. (Clapping wildly...)

or not...

The kyokai works in mysterious ways.

13-2 is still possible of course, but Asa seems out for blood this basho. I have the impression that he considers Hakuho's pre-basho over confidence as a personal insult.

[Asashosakari]

Actually, even if he goes 12-3 in the end, if he gets jun yusho that could technically still be enough to make him yokozuna. (Dohyo-iri...)

What technicality is that? Yusho-equivalent has meant "playoff loss" in the past, and nowadays it's being expanded to mean "13-2" as well - mainly because 13-2 is almost inevitably the second-best record if it's not enough to win the yusho. Nobody ever said anything about promoting Hakuho (or anybody else) based on a 12-3 jun-yusho, at least not seriously.

(I'm sure somebody semi-important hinted at promoting Kaio with 12-3 back when, but the credibility score of such comments usually doesn't even approach 0.1 on the Kitanoumi scale.)

Edited July 19, 2006 by Asashosakari

[Daigaiguma]

short story is that i was not around here all this time ... now that i am back i will overhype him to a degree that you will start hating him ...

too late

[aderechelsea]

"too late, i hate him already" or " too late, someone else overhyped him already" ?

[Zentoryu]

or " too late, someone else overhyped him already" ?

Namely Hakuho himself in pre-basho interviews... (Dohyo-iri...)

[Ryukaze]

Doitsuyama-sama curious as to how you calculated Hakuho's chances of winning at precisely 16% (???)

I have a formula for that which might or might not be crap. 16% is just the output of that formula which is no magic and explained elsewhere but I won't bother to go into the details here.

Any chance to get the individual winning percentages for the four bouts? (I know, I know, I could calculate them myself... (Dohyo-iri...))

Yeah, why not? Asashoryu 44%, Chiyotaikai 71%, Kaio 78% and Tochiazuma 66%. Calculation with Excel is quite simple, the formula would be NORMDIST(R1-R2,0,286,TRUE). And you calculate them yourself of course, but I don't really use the ratings on my page, as I have some modifictaions, so the results can be slightly (or not) different.

So are you saying Asashoryu has won only 44% of his bouts between Chiyotaikai, Kaio and Kotooshu???? As in dividing his total bouts won by total bouts fought? If so that just doesnt sound right to me, less im mistaken........

Edited July 19, 2006 by Ryukaze

[rhino]

So are you saying Asashoryu has won only 44% of his bouts between Chiyotaikai, Kaio and Kotooshu???? As in dividing his total bouts won by total bouts fought? If so that just doesnt sound right to me, less im mistaken........

He means Hakuho's chances of beating Asa are 44%, 71% chance of beating Chiyotaikai etc...

If Hakuho does somehow win all his remaining matches, I will bet my house on him being promoted whatever Kitanoumi is saying right now.

(However, I don't actually own a house)

[_the_mind_]

Actually, even if he goes 12-3 in the end, if he gets jun yusho that could technically still be enough to make him yokozuna. (Dohyo-iri...)

What technicality is that? Yusho-equivalent has meant "playoff loss" in the past, and nowadays it's being expanded to mean "13-2" as well - mainly because 13-2 is almost inevitably the second-best record if it's not enough to win the yusho. Nobody ever said anything about promoting Hakuho (or anybody else) based on a 12-3 jun-yusho, at least not seriously.

(I'm sure somebody semi-important hinted at promoting Kaio with 12-3 back when, but the credibility score of such comments usually doesn't even approach 0.1 on the Kitanoumi scale.)

i personally wonder what would happen if a 12-3 jun-yusho happens given this last basho he obviously won, but that the previous he went 13-2 and lost in a playoff, and 13-2 previous to that, both jun yusho. i mean its kind of hard to discount a guy who has yusho or jun yusho 4 consecutive basho for promotion. even if it isnt "yusho equivalent"

January 13-2 jun

March 13-2 jun ("yusho equivalent")

May 14-1 yusho

July 12-3 jun (if 12-3 happens and if it happens to make jun-yusho)

while i am keenly aware that the early basho in this streak were not as an ozeki, it makes me wonder. if they are willing to bend the "two yusho" "rule", then the previous basho's should have some sort of slight attention given to them based on the results. i mean its not like he is going to turn into a guy who loses 5-7 each time (kotooshu). but then again i suppose oshu would kind of prove the point that past means nothing when looking at what you will do next basho. who knows.....but then again if hakuho is the fighter we all think he is then even if he doesnt make the necissary wins to get promoted this time, it doesnt matter because he will do it eventually. if he is what we think he is. if not, then i suppose it would be deservedly so that he not get it. but i cant help but look at his sumo this calendar year as having been extremely impressive into the 4th basho.

[Zuikakuyama]

I would think that with a 13-2 jun yusho, the powers that be will probably not promote him. The quality of his sumo has not been that great up to now, and he has actually been lucky in several of his wins.

He is also on his first run, (with only 1 yusho total), so they will not make a Kaio/Tochiazuma-esque break for him.

The best he can hope for is to carry his result over to the next basho, where he must get a yusho or 14-1.

[_the_mind_]

I would think that with a 13-2 jun yusho, the powers that be will probably not promote him. The quality of his sumo has not been that great up to now, and he has actually been lucky in several of his wins.

He is also on his first run, (with only 1 yusho total), so they will not make a Kaio/Tochiazuma-esque break for him.

The best he can hope for is to carry his result over to the next basho, where he must get a yusho or 14-1.

i dont think anyone is going to agree that 13-2 wont get him promoted. including the YDC

[Joeblack]

How can they promote Hakuho who has only 1 yusho?

That is not really Yokozuna like. He has to show the ability to dominate a basho. Right now his wins are not impressive enough.