Osh for Ozeki in Kyushu?

[Kintamayama]

Has there been any follow-up in the press on the initial "Osh to Ozeki with a yusho" rumour?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

In nearly every article he is mentioned, the possibility is brought up.

[Tatsuma Keiru]

Hey everyone first post... so be gentle. (Being unsure...)

Somebody was wondering what the media in Japan is saying about Osh (and his chances of Ozeki promotion next basho), and I started wondering too, so looked around at some online sports papers. Here's a link to the minuscule speck of information, or lack thereof, that I found.

Nikkan Sports

For those of you who can't read Japanese (not to imply I can read this stuff without a dictionary close by) here is a translation, or as close a translation as I can give you. I hope this isn't breaking any copywrite rules or anything.

Fall Sumo Tournament, 9th day:

Edited September 19, 2005 by Tatsuma Keiru

[Kintamayama]

Hey everyone first post... so be gentle.  (Being unsure...)

Fall Sumo Tournament, 9th day:  Ryogoku, Japan

In his first tournament at the rank Sekiwake, Kotooshu has accumulated 9 consecutive wins with no losses

Edited September 19, 2005 by Kintamayama

[Fujisan]

Hey everyone first post... so be gentle.  (Being unsure...)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Gentle?!?!? Sorry can you translate Gentle for me. (Whistling...)

Welcome aboard Tatsuma :-D

Make it official at the introduction forums if it pleases you.

[Tatsuma Keiru]

Welcome!! It's great to have someone else who can help with some translations here..

I checked the site, and the part you write- "the content of the bout being much more agreeable than last week

[Avitohol]

Just 3 more wins and the yusho & hopefully the ozeki rank are in the bag. :-O

[Naganoyama]

Can you see Osh getting a zensho yusho? I am having difficulty imagining Asashoryu beating him in this form. let alone anyone else.

[aderechelsea]

nah .... i think Asa is still on top of the game.

he will get the yusho even in a kettei-sen (if this will be necessary)

day 12 looks easy for both of them though ...

[QttP]

I am having difficulty imagining Asashoryu beating him in this form. let alone anyone else.

Chiyotaikai. Only needs to keep Osh off the belt.

[Shimpu]

Kotooshu will fail tomorrow against Hokutoriki's oshi attack (Whistling...)

[sekihiryu]

Kotooshu will fail tomorrow against Hokutoriki's oshi attack

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

or perhaps the one-hit wonder, will fall into a vicious arm throw by Osh.

you never know.

Care to put your money where your mouth is Shimpu?

[Shimpu]

(Whistling...) True. You never know. That was my wishful thinking... therefore... I HOPE he will fail tomorrow (Sakke...)

[Gusoyama]

Osh looked VERY solid on day 11, inexorably pushing Tochiazuma back and out. That said, I'd like to wait on his promotion for one more basho. After all, this basho included some pretty weak opposition to this point(minus Tochiazuma, of course) and really only promises 1, maybe 2 good matches remaining.

[Kintamayama]

After all, this basho included some pretty weak opposition to this point(minus Tochiazuma, of course) and really only promises 1, maybe 2 good matches remaining.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Weak opposition? Wakanosato and U are missing, yes, but the others are not weak opposition. He couldn't touch most of these guys a few months ago (4-11, remember??) All the rikishi who made it to Ozeki (and most Yokozuna promotees) did it while some strong rikishi were sidelined. I'm sure someone less lazy than me can produce the stats. That's the way it works.

Even if he loses all his remaining bouts , an 11-4 at shin-sekiwake is totally impressive.

[Tatsuma Keiru]

Weak opposition? Wakanosato and U are missing, yes, but the others are not weak opposition.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

My sentiments exactly, Kintamayama. Osh fought Tochiazuma and everybody from Komusubi Futeno to Maegashira #4, defeating every last one of them. This is not something you do by accident boys and girls. Asa fought almost the same exact rikishi (his schedule actually a little bit

Edited September 21, 2005 by Tatsuma Keiru

[Kashunowaka]

All the rikishi who made it to Ozeki (and most Yokozuna promotees) did it while some strong rikishi were sidelined. I'm sure someone less lazy than me can produce the stats. That's the way it works.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I can produce the stats, but I am lazy too. I'll just concur with you. It doesn't matter who is away - if you get the wins, that's enough.

[Gusoyama]

Perhaps my perception of "difficult opposition" needs updating. I'll do the rundown, citing my opinion on why many of his foes I would consider sub-standard:

Day 1: Kokkai- Personal record 2-1 - Kokkai is looking horrible this basho. Osh did a lot of backward sumo, though with the way kokkai lunges, it may be the best way to dispatch him.

Day 2: Hakuho - 1-3 - Hakuho is doing well now, but started off the basho with a questionable ankle, which was tweaked in the match after a slip. I yield this as "difficult opposition", but not as difficult as Hakuho would normally be.

Day 3: Kyokutenho - 1-1 - Kyokutenho should be beat by someone of sanyaku caliber at least half the time. Another borderline opponent who was manhandling him through the whole match and very nearly won. Absolutely no offense from Osh.

Day 4: Kakizoe - 2-2 - Kakizoe is clearly out of his depth.

Day 5: Miyabiyama - 2-1 - Miyabiyama is old, sloppy, tired, and really isn't M1 quality any more.

Day 6: Futeno - 2-1 - Out of his depth right now, at his highest rank. Maybe a quality opponent in the future, but mediocre right now.

Day 7: Dejima - 2-1 - See Miyabiyama.

Day 8: Kyokushuzan - 2-1 - Clearly at the top of the elevator heading down.

Day 9: Iwakiyama - 2-1 - Iwakiyama is M4 talent, and is showing it. Again, someone that sanyaku should beat regularly.

Day 10: Tamanoshima - 1-0 - Getting older, really only M4 or so talent now, if that.

Day 11: Tochiazuma - 1-2 - Still strong, and I was impressed with Kotooshu's manhandling of him.

Still, it remains that Asashoryu is at "60%", Chiyotaikai is dwindling, Kaio is hurt, Tochiazuma may be hurt, Wakanosato is hurt, Hakuho was hurt, and this is only Kotooshu's second good basho as a member of sanyaku. Is he doing ozeki level sumo this basho? Yes. Is he having a damn good basho? Yes. Would I still like to see him have another quality basho before promotion? Definitely. Haru is being forgotten a little too quickly.

Edited September 21, 2005 by Gusoyama

[Asashosakari]

In other words, you're considering pretty much the entire meatgrinder population of the last two years to be over-ranked (or in your words, sub-standard)? Pray tell, who's supposed to be there on the banzuke?

Edited September 21, 2005 by Asashosakari

[Avitohol]

Perhaps my perception of "difficult opposition" needs updating.  I'll do the rundown, citing my opinion on why many of his foes I would consider sub-standard:

Day 1: Kokkai- Personal record 2-1 - Kokkai is looking horrible this basho.  Osh did a lot of backward sumo, though with the way kokkai lunges, it may be the best way to dispatch him. 

Day 2: Hakuho - 1-3 - Hakuho is doing well now, but started off the basho with a questionable ankle, which was tweaked in the match after a slip.  I yield this as "difficult opposition", but not as difficult as Hakuho would normally be.

Day 3: Kyokutenho - 1-1 - Kyokutenho should be beat by someone of sanyaku caliber at least half the time.  Another borderline opponent who was manhandling him through the whole match and very nearly won.  Absolutely no offense from Osh.

Day 4: Kakizoe - 2-2 - Kakizoe is clearly out of his depth. 

Day 5: Miyabiyama - 2-1 - Miyabiyama is old, sloppy, tired, and really isn't M1 quality any more.

Day 6: Futeno - 2-1 - Out of his depth right now, at his highest rank.  Maybe a quality opponent in the future, but mediocre right now.

Day 7: Dejima - 2-1 - See Miyabiyama.

Day 8: Kyokushuzan - 2-1 - Clearly at the top of the elevator heading down. 

Day 9: Iwakiyama - 2-1 - Iwakiyama is M4 talent, and is showing it.  Again, someone that sanyaku should beat regularly.

Day 10: Tamanoshima - 1-0 - Getting older, really only M4 or so talent now, if that. 

Day 11: Tochiazuma - 1-2 - Still strong, and I was impressed with Kotooshu's manhandling of him. 

Still, it remains that Asashoryu is at "60%", Chiyotaikai is dwindling, Kaio is hurt, Tochiazuma may be hurt, Wakanosato is hurt, Hakuho was hurt, and this is only Kotooshu's second good basho as a member of sanyaku.  Is he doing ozeki level sumo this basho?  Yes.  Is he having a damn good basho?  Yes.  Would I still like to see him have another quality basho before promotion?  Definitely.  Haru is being forgotten a little too quickly.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

silly.

as silly as the other voices of back-pedalling, defensive & inattractive sumo are. (Applauding...)

but i don't mind, you spit bullshit, I count the wins. (I am not worthy...)

[Gusoyama]

A second look: Quality Indicies for 3 basho previous to Ozeki promotion:

Asashoryu - 66(11-4@Sw), 66(11-4@Se),60(12-3@Se) = 192

Kaio - 40(8-7@Kw), 109,(14-1@Kw), 82(11-4@Se) = 231

Chiyotaikai - 46(9-6@Se), 48(10-5@Se), 101(13-2@Se) = 195

Tochiazuma - 55(10-5@Se), 59(12-3@Se), 66(12-3@Se) = 180

Musoyama - 46(10-5@Ke), 89(13-2@S2e), 75(12-3@Se) = 210

Dejima - 28(9-6@Kw), 54(11-4@S2e), 101(13-2@Sw) = 183

Miyabiyama - 71(12-3@Kw), 68(11-4@Sw), 62(11-4@Se) = 201

Kotooshu - 33(10-5@M5e), 77(12-3@Ke), ?(?@Se) = ?

If Kotooshu loses the remainder of his bouts, but gets a sansho, he'll get in the range of 60 quality points, making the above total 170.

If he wins everything and gets all 3 sansho, he gets around 110 points, or 220 total. Promotion time.

Say he wins vs. the two maegashira, and Chiyotaikai, but loses to Asashoryu.

This means a yusho, probably 2 sansho, and a total of around 85-90 points. That brings his total to 195-200, which is in the range for promotion, as seen above, but I'm still not sure it warrants a promotion.

A win vs. both maegashira, but losses to Chiyotaikai AND Asashoryu means a total of 75-80, give or take a few points for sansho/yusho/jun yusho bonuses. Thats 185-190, again, I don't think worthy of a promotion.

[Gusoyama]

In other words, you're considering pretty much the entire meatgrinder population of the last two years to be over-ranked (or in your words, sub-standard)? Pray tell, who's supposed to be there on the banzuke?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You know what? I was thinking the same thing. And I do think that, I suppose. I've been impressed by Kotooshu, Hakuho, Kotomitsuki, and Wakanosato. Others, not so much. Some of his opponents are not at 100% this basho, but thats always going to be true, and like many have said, most have been promoted when the opposition was weak.

Edited to add: All in all, I need to watch the next few days to see if Kotooshu is really Ozeki material as of this basho. I just think that if he gets promoted right after this with a 12-3 or even 13-2 record, it might be a mistake.

Also, in reference to the "substandard" meatgrinder right now, I think Makuuchi is in a transition phase right now, and isn't the same quality it was in, say, late 99, early 2000. (I am not worthy...)

Edited September 21, 2005 by Gusoyama

[wolfgangho]

yes my oppinion is to promote him because he will win the next one anyway and with 2 15-0 wins in a row he will be the next yokozuna

where can i bet on him to get yokozuna until the end of this year?

greetings

wolfgangho

[Asashosakari]

Also, in reference to the "substandard" meatgrinder right now, I think Makuuchi is in a transition phase right now, and isn't the same quality it was in, say, late 99, early 2000. (Applauding...)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Be careful what you wish for. The previous iteration of a stable meatgrinder (the way it's been the last couple of years) was indeed that of the mid- to late 90s - when there were about six top guys who lotteried into and out of lower sanyaku, and then you had another dozen of wildly overmatched guys riding the elevator. I prefer today's meatgrinder where everybody is capable of going at least 6-9, rather than one where pretty much everybody between M2 and M5 can be expected to get 11 losses. Or would you really prefer a return of the banzuke elevator, complete with guys like Tokitenku or Takekaze at M2 every other basho?

To put it more bluntly, in my opinion the idea that Makuuchi as a whole was better or more competitive 5-10 years ago is a complete myth, mostly fueled by the fact that almost everybody only seems to remember the top 10 or 12 guys, and completely ignores that there was a much bigger dropoff to the rest of the field than there is today. I find sumo a lot more interesting with today's continuum of skill levels (Asashoryu excepted), rather than the three-tier club (the five Y/O; the handful of consistent lower sanyaku; everybody else) of a decade ago. YMMV, of course. Granted, the yusho races were more interesting back then, but that will change again in due time, hopefully without establishing such boringly clear-cut tiers again.

All that said, it doesn't really matter what the absolute level of competition at the meatgrinder is, except for how pretty the sumo looks. Any given basho is going to have joi-jin rikishi who are having a bad, or even terrible tournament, simply because somebody has to pick up the losses in a head-to-head sport (the alternative would be even weaker Ozeki and a weak Yokozuna, obviously). A different set of meatgrinder rikishi isn't going to change that fact.

I really thought that this had become obvious during the last year or so when guys like Roho and Kokkai who were expected to easily dominate the present meatgrinder guys in fact couldn't do so, but I guess not. (Let's throw in that great hope Asasekiryu, too, or Futeno now.) Everybody's free to think the next handful of arrivals are going to be so much better and are going to easily displace the current joi-jin, of course, but really, let's be honest - history's not on your side, and I dare say you're simply setting yourself up for yet another round of disappointment when the new guys won't (and in most cases, can't) live up to the hype, at least not without another few years of development (which nobody wants to wait for, nowadays).

(Incidentally, this rant is courtesy of my reading one too many SML posts that try to look at every single thing in Ozumo through 1990s-coloured glasses, if you'll excuse the wretched metaphor. Apologies to Gusoyama for picking his post as the impetus for writing this stuff down for once. It's nothing personal. (Blushing...) (I am not worthy...))

Edited September 21, 2005 by Asashosakari

[Gusoyama]

(Incidentally, this rant is courtesy of my reading one too many SML posts that try to look at every single thing in Ozumo through 1990s-coloured glasses, if you'll excuse the wretched metaphor. Apologies to Gusoyama for picking his post as the impetus for writing this stuff down for once. It's nothing personal. :-) (Hugging...))

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No offense taken whatsoever. I rather like a good debate, and I take no offense from well thought out posts, but rather relish in their depth and intelligent discourse. My "anti-Kotooshu" posts are not to be singled out against anyone either, but rather against the general "X has had 3 good bashos in upper maegashira/sanyaku. He'll be the best Ozeki ever!" posts. (Cheers...) (If I could, I'd send everyone on this post a bottle of my "Ozeki Stout" if Kotooshu becomes Ozeki for Kyushu (Laughing...) )

[Guest masamune2005]

A second look:  Quality Indicies for 3 basho previous to Ozeki promotion:

Asashoryu - 66(11-4@Sw), 66(11-4@Se),60(12-3@Se) = 192

Kaio - 40(8-7@Kw), 109,(14-1@Kw), 82(11-4@Se) = 231

Chiyotaikai - 46(9-6@Se), 48(10-5@Se), 101(13-2@Se) = 195

Tochiazuma - 55(10-5@Se), 59(12-3@Se), 66(12-3@Se) = 180

Musoyama - 46(10-5@Ke), 89(13-2@S2e), 75(12-3@Se) = 210

Dejima - 28(9-6@Kw), 54(11-4@S2e), 101(13-2@Sw) = 183

Miyabiyama - 71(12-3@Kw), 68(11-4@Sw), 62(11-4@Se) = 201

Kotooshu - 33(10-5@M5e), 77(12-3@Ke), ?(?@Se) = ?

i think this discussion has skipped the fact that kotooshu was at maegashira 5 last basho. he may have fought the top guys but is there a precident for a basho at that low of a level counting towards ozeki promotion? the lowest rank of the guys listed above was komusubi. i like kotooshu but i think the 3 basho in sanyaku criteria for ozeki promotion is a good one. i also think that since neither kaio or taikai are retiring this basho it will hurt his chances. i think he wont get promoted, even with the yusho.