Nagoya Basho Forecast

[Araiguma_Rascal]

IIRC we had this question earlier in the year about Hakuho, and there have been such cases in the past. Of course, it became a moot question because Hakuho didn't have a very good record (8-7) upon reaching sekiwake.

[Zuikakuyama]

Going off topic here but,

According to the data on Hakke Yoi, it seems no one has ever been promoted to Ozeki directly from Komusubi. Is this a rule or simply the result of a random set of circumstances.

I could see in many situations where someone could start the run from m1 (or maybe even komusubi), get a 10-11 wins, gets promoted to komusubi and get 10 - 11 wins, but remains a Komusubi because of bad banzuke luck, then gets 12 - 13 wins to get the requisite 33+ wins over 3 bashos.

[Doitsuyama]

Going off topic here but,

According to the data on Hakke Yoi, it seems no one has ever been promoted to Ozeki directly from Komusubi.  Is this a rule or simply the result of a random set of circumstances.

I could see in many situations where someone could start the run from m1 (or maybe even komusubi), get a 10-11 wins, gets promoted to komusubi and get 10 - 11 wins, but remains a Komusubi because of bad banzuke luck, then gets 12 - 13 wins to get the requisite 33+ wins over 3 bashos.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I also think, this is completely possible. It just is too unlikely. Just do a search on hakkeyoi to see how often Komusubi with 10 or 11 wins don't get to Sekiwake. Firstly, 11 wins are practically always enough to get an extra Sekiwake spot. And 10 wins got to Sekiwake in 49 of 59 cases. Now do that two times in a row (Ok, from M1 10 or 11 wins got to Sekiwake only in 24 of 43 cases, but always at least to Komusubi). It could happen though.

[Doitsuyama]

So as a hypothetical question, if Tosanoumi had also managed a KK, like 8-7, there would then be 3 sekiwake? There is never a demotion from sekiwake with a KK, right?

Gusoyama wrote history. He made a demotion from Sekiwake to Komusubi in the Salary Cap banzuke with an 8-7. Otherwise, a demotion isn't possible with a kachi-koshi, correct.

(Whistling...)

[Araiguma_Rascal]

I also think, this is completely possible. It just is too unlikely. Just do a search on hakkeyoi to see how often Komusubi with 10 or 11 wins don't get to Sekiwake. Firstly, 11 wins are practically always enough to get an extra Sekiwake spot. And 10 wins got to Sekiwake in 49 of 59 cases. Now do that two times in a row (Ok, from M1 10 or 11 wins got to Sekiwake only in 24 of 43 cases, but always at least to Komusubi). It could happen though.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

In such a case, wouldn't they give some consideration to the fact that the rikishi posted double-digit wins for two basho in a row, hence almost guaranteeing that they would give him a sekiwake promotion. Or is the basho-before-last always irrelevant?

Is 33 wins or more the usual cut-off number for Ozeki promotion?

If so, what about 9 + 9 + 15 = 33?

Would that do the trick?

An even wierder one:

13 + 7 + 13 = 33

Could that work?

Would it make any difference if one or both were a Yusho?

[Oimeru]

This link should be helpful:

http://tinyurl.com/8enzp

It lists all cases where a below-ozeki makuuchi rikishi had at least 32 wins in 3 bashos. However, there is no case of a rikishi with 34 or more wins that was still only komusubi in the third basho. So there's no precedence in any case.

This is the table of East Sekiwake dropping to West Sekiwake after a kachi koshi:

http://tinyurl.com/7prdg

It seems very possible that Kotomitsuki will overtake Hakuho.

[Kintamayama]

An even wierder one:

13 + 7 + 13 = 33

Could that work?

Would it make any difference if one or both were a Yusho?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

A makekoshi kills everything.

[Araiguma_Rascal]

This link should be helpful:

http://tinyurl.com/8enzp

It lists all cases where a below-ozeki makuuchi rikishi had at least 32 wins in 3 bashos. However, there is no case of a rikishi with 34 or more wins that was still only komusubi in the third basho. So there's no precedence in any case.

This is the table of East Sekiwake dropping to West Sekiwake after a kachi koshi:

http://tinyurl.com/7prdg

It seems very possible that Kotomitsuki will overtake Hakuho.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Does the [http://] button work for you?

Anyway, thanks for the info. I was aware that an East sekiwake could be demoted to west even with kk, but I thought it would be in favor of another sekiwake, not komusubi.

In the link, the highest win total not promoted to Ozeki was 34. In each case the first basho was as a maegashira.

Wakahanada seemed to have the hardest time getting promoted, and Chiyotaikai the easiest. Of all the 32s only Chiyotaikai was promoted. Perhaps an Ozeki shortage at the time?

It's a lot easier to remain an Ozeki than to become one though. One kachikoshi ever other tournament is enough. Chiyotaikai has been doing it with smoke and mirrors for a while now it seems.

[_the_mind_]

An even wierder one:

13 + 7 + 13 = 33

Could that work?

Would it make any difference if one or both were a Yusho?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

A makekoshi kills everything.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

see wakanosato for proof of this

[Kashunowaka]

my question is can kotomitsuki get promoted to ozeki if he has a dozen or more wins this next time eventhough his 13 was as a komosubi and the tournament before that he was M1? (meaning just one basho as a sekiwake)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am not sure if this has been answered clearly already, but the answer is yes. Kotomitsuki is a bona fide ozeki candidate in Nagoya.

[Asashosakari]

This is the table of East Sekiwake dropping to West Sekiwake after a kachi koshi:

http://tinyurl.com/7prdg

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Nitpick: Your query should ideally look like this, expanding the results from 38 to 51. ;-) At any rate, this doesn't really tell us a whole lot, since the great majority of those cases saw the East Sekiwake displaced by another Sekiwake (which is something that isn't really that rare), not by a Komusubi.

Is 33 wins or more the usual cut-off number for Ozeki promotion?

If so, what about 9 + 9 + 15 = 33? 

Would that do the trick?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Veeery doubtful, given that it looks like two respectable (but not Ozeki-level) basho followed by a fluke. I don't think 9/15/9 would do it, either.

Edited May 26, 2005 by Asashosakari

[Oimeru]

Asashosakari:

Well, you are right. :)

Unfortunately combined queries like that don't seem to be possible, though.

For example Takatoriki after 11/91 *was* displaced by a Komusubi, but it was 8-7 vs. 12-3.

[something *is* odd on my end, now I can't even quote any more....hm...]

Edited May 27, 2005 by Oimeru

[Gusoyama]

So as a hypothetical question, if Tosanoumi had also managed a KK, like 8-7, there would then be 3 sekiwake? There is never a demotion from sekiwake with a KK, right?

Gusoyama wrote history. He made a demotion from Sekiwake to Komusubi in the Salary Cap banzuke with an 8-7. Otherwise, a demotion isn't possible with a kachi-koshi, correct.

:-)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

(Blushing...) :-)

B-) :-/

[Kashunowaka]

Asashosakari:

Well, you are right. :)

Unfortunately combined queries like that don't seem to be possible, though.

For example Takatoriki after 11/91 *was* displaced by a Komusubi, but it was 8-7 vs. 12-3.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Anything is possible ... what are you trying to do? If it's worthwhile I might add it.

[Asashosakari]

Unfortunately combined queries like that don't seem to be possible, though.

For example Takatoriki after 11/91 *was* displaced by a Komusubi, but it was 8-7 vs. 12-3.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Anything is possible ... what are you trying to do? If it's worthwhile I might add it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually, that seems to be roughly what the Promotion Search is already doing. (Oimeru, see my post further up in the thread.)

Incidentally, what I'd like to see added is the possibility to use multiple win numbers (e.g. "8-10") in the promotion search. (Sigh...) (And while I'm nitpicking again, I think the promotion search output could use New Query / Modify Query links like the regular query output has...)

Edited May 27, 2005 by Asashosakari

[aderechelsea]

well i sent my entry in GTB today and i noticed that my prediction was like the Mainichi Shimbun's (which is not a good thing) except that i got Dejima and Futeno the other way round ....

i also decided that Hakuho will keep his Se position even though he had a 9-6 .... if it was a 8-7 i might have put Mickey there ....

what the hell .... like i knew what i was doing while making that entry ..... (Sigh...)

[Oimeru]

[this was going off topic - responce pasted into the other threed]

Edited May 27, 2005 by Oimeru

[_the_mind_]

my question is can kotomitsuki get promoted to ozeki if he has a dozen or more wins this next time eventhough his 13 was as a komosubi and the tournament before that he was M1? (meaning just one basho as a sekiwake)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am not sure if this has been answered clearly already, but the answer is yes. Kotomitsuki is a bona fide ozeki candidate in Nagoya.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

thank you, i was still waiting for an answer (Nodding yes...) but you have answered fo rme

[AsaMoe]

As usual i recuperated from the basho and now i am looking at the new banzuke.

All guesses habe Tamanoshima behind Tosanoumi. Is there any chance with

Tamanoshima M1E, 5-11

Tosanoumi SW, 4-15

that Tamanoshima is in front of Tosanoumi ?

My interpretation of the Banzuke making is, that 1 victory is worth 1.5 to 2 levels ?

Edited June 5, 2005 by AsaMoe

[Doitsuyama]

As usual i recuperated from the basho and now i am looking at the new banzuke.

All guesses habe Tamanoshima behind Tosanoumi. Is there any chance with

Tamanoshima M1E, 5-11

Tosanoumi SW, 4-15

that Tamanoshima is in front of Tosanoumi ?

My interpretation of the Banzuke making is, that 1 victory is worth 1.5 to 2 levels ?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Short answer: No chance. Sanyaku to Maegashira gets some slack in downward movement.

[Asashosakari]

All guesses habe Tamanoshima behind Tosanoumi.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually, the Jiji guess has Tamanoshima ahead.

And go figure, my own guess also has 'Shima at M4w and Tosanoumi at M5e, but now that I think about it, that does look odd. I think I'll change that.

[Jonosuke]

Ozumo Magazine Nagoya Basho Banzuke Forecast

East Yokozuna Asashoryu
East Ozeki Tochiazuma
West Ozeki Chiyotaikai
West Ozeki Kaio
East Sekiwake Hakuho
West Sekiwake Kotomitsuki
East Komusubi Kotooshu
West Komusubi Kyokushuzan
East M1 Miyabiyama
West M1 Kakizoe	
East M2 Roho
West M2 Dejima
East M3 Futeno
West M3 Wakanosato
East M4 Tosanoumi
West M4 Hokutoriki
East M5 Kotonowaka
West M5 Asasekiryu
East M6 Ama
West M6 Tamanoshima
East M7 Kyokutenho
West M7 Kokkai
East M8 Tochinonada
West M8 Kotoshogiku
East M9 Iwakiyama
West M9 Aminishiki
East M10 Jumonji
West M10 Kaiho
East M11 Takekaze
West M11 Takamisakari
East M12 Tochisakae
West M12 Tokitenku
East M13 Tamakasuga
West M13 Katayama
East M14 Tamaasuka
West M14 Buyuzan
East M15 Hakurozan
West M15 Toyonoshima
East M16 Kisenosato
West M16 Ishide
East M17 Toyozakura
West M17 Senshuyama

I suppose where they are ranked Kokkai, Tochinonada and Iwakiyama should do well. Nagoya will be a basho to test the mettle of Kisenosato but with Kotoshogiku, Tamaassuka, Ama and Toyonoshima around, it shoud be give him enough motivation to do well. Will this basho be a breakout one for Futeno and propell him to Sanyaku?

Edited June 5, 2005 by Jonosuke

[aderechelsea]

so Tochiazuma is indeed intai eh?

.

.

.

.

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(just kidding guys ... relax) :-(

[Jonosuke]

I could never get that thing to format right and line them up in a table format. I suppose while I am change the banzuke from two panes to singel, it must got skipped. Sorry about that.

[Torideyama]

My take is on Sekiwake situation is this:

Kotomitsuki with 13-2 as Komusubi should win over Hakuho with 9-6 as Sekiwake so Mitsuki on East while Haku on West Sekiwake. Though I have no firm background basis for this but just a feeling.