Asanowaka intai (?)

[madorosumaru]

Are we 100% certain that Asanowaka will be demoted? There are 8 juryo rikishi with demotable results, but only 5 promotions from makushita. Perhaps he and his shisho are waiting to see if he is one of the lucky ones?

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All the newpapers are using the Kyodo report, which is a typically "nebulous" Japanese sports media "scoop."

It starts out strong with "We've learned that Asanowaka will retire as of this basho ...etc., etc." Then, they quote him as saying, "There is still a lot of time before next basho. I still don't really know." They follow that zag with another zig by concluding, "However, it is our understanding that he has already firmed up his intention to retire."

Take that for whatever it's worth. He is 1-14 at J5w--that's near the top third of Juryo. There are about 6 other rikishi . . . that may face demotion before him. If he finds out that he would retain his juryo rank, he may very well stick around a little longer . . . who knows?

The renowned wit, H.L. Mencken, once said, "The report of my death is premature." So far, all the talk about Asanowaka's [sumo] demise is but mere speculation. (Cloverleaf...)

[Kashunowaka]

The renowned wit, H.L. Mencken, once said, "The report of my death is premature."

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I thought that was Mark Twain.

[Kintamayama]

Are we 100% certain that Asanowaka will be demoted? There are 8 juryo rikishi with demotable results, but only 5 promotions from makushita. Perhaps he and his shisho are waiting to see if he is one of the lucky ones?

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Since the Banzuke hensei committee is made up of Oyakatas (Is Takasago a member?)I am pretty sure the Banzuke and its details are known to them all. Takasago knows for sure, and he probably told Asanowaka the situation. I remember a Mongolian member of the forum who was adamant that he knew of a Mongolian's promotion to Makuuchi that seemed totally off the wall to most of us, yet he was right. He said he KNEW, because someone told the rikishi who told him or something like that..

I am convinced that the concerned rikishi know. That said, I think Kashunowaka is right in assuming that perhaps Asanowaka may survive this quake and hang on at Juryo 14.

I just think he and his Shisho KNOW, rather than are waiting to see anything.

[madorosumaru]

The renowned wit, H.L. Mencken, once said, "The report of my death is premature."

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I thought that was Mark Twain.

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"The report of my death is premature," is a quotation that is widely attributed to newspaper editor H. L. Mencken.

That famous quotation has been attributed to both. I am sure there are many other witty guys that have come up with something similar. (Cloverleaf...)

[Kashunowaka]

Since the Banzuke hensei committee is made up of Oyakatas (Is Takasago a member?)I am pretty sure the Banzuke and its details are known to them all. Takasago knows for sure, and he probably told Asanowaka the situation. I remember a Mongolian member of the forum who was adamant that he knew of a Mongolian's promotion to Makuuchi that seemed totally off the wall to most of us, yet he was right. He said he KNEW, because someone told the rikishi who told him or something like that..

Perhaps amgaa99 is secretly a member of the banzuke committee?

I am convinced that the concerned rikishi know. That said, I think Kashunowaka is right in assuming that perhaps Asanowaka may survive this quake and hang on at Juryo 14.

I just think he and his Shisho KNOW, rather than are waiting to see anything.

Sounds very plausible to me.

[Jonosuke]

So we had five going up. so who are those going down?

J14E Maikaze 7-8

J14W Kaido 7-8

J13E Ushiomaru 5-10

J12E Daimanazuru 6-9 assumed safe

J11E Wakakirin 0-0-15

J10W Harunoyama 5-10 assumed safe

J9W Chiyohakuho 3-8-4

I guess they are the five...and then

J5W Asanowaka 1-14

I guess he could have squeezed in.

And where did that newpaper report about Asanowaka retiring come from?

Or Asanowaka just waiting for someone to officially vacate a Toshiyori Myoseki...

[madorosumaru]

Where did that newpaper report about Asanowaka retiring come from?

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All the newpapers are using the [same] Kyodo report . . .

All the speculaion came from that one, single source.

[Jakusotsu]

Perhaps amgaa99 is secretly a member of the banzuke committee?

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Heck, yes, of course! THAT's what all his asking for banzuke drafts is about: the NSK is secretly trying to screw up our GTB results on purpose! No wonder nobody ever got a perfect score...

[Asashosakari]

Or Asanowaka just waiting for someone to officially vacate a Toshiyori Myoseki...

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That could be it...maybe they're just trying to give Asanosho a few months to find a new share before Asanowaka assumes the Wakamatsu name.

Anyway, I don't buy the idea that Asanowaka could stay in Juryo. No matter which way you slice it, he pretty much has to be at least fifth in line for demotion, even with extremely relaxed assumptions:

Wakakirin #1

Chiyohakuho and Ushiomaru #2 and #3 (internal order already gets iffy here)

Kaido #4 (not strictly, but let's say he's a "must" demotion because he went MK at the very last spot)

Then we're left with Asanowaka, Harunoyama, Daimanazuru, Maikaze. Precedence has shown that there really isn't such a thing as rank bonus in Juryo...if you have one win less, you generally need to be two full ranks better to be in the same demotion situation. Even if we change that from two ranks (= four half-ranks) to only three half-ranks (which is already a stretch of the imagination), Asanowaka is worse than everybody else:

Difference to Harunoyama: 4 wins, 10 half-ranks (needed: 13+)

Difference to Daimanazuru: 5 wins, 13 half-ranks (needed: 16+)

Difference to Maikaze: 6 wins, 17 half-ranks (needed 19+)

I'll be happy to eat foot on this one, but I just don't see how he could not be the fifth demotee.

Edit: For the sake of completeness, with the unrelaxed assumptions, he'd be up 2nd for demotion, as his relative record is worse than everybody's except Wakakirin's.

Edited March 30, 2005 by Asashosakari

[Kashunowaka]

I'll be happy to eat foot on this one, but I just don't see how he could not be the fifth demotee.

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You are probably right, but it's not like they would break any banzuke-making rules if they demoted Maikaze instead.

[Naganoyama]

Perhaps amgaa99 is secretly a member of the banzuke committee?

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Heck, yes, of course! THAT's what all his asking for banzuke drafts is about: the NSK is secretly trying to screw up our GTB results on purpose! No wonder nobody ever got a perfect score...

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No, that's completely wrong.

The banzuke committee is completely confused about what to do and is hoping amgaa99 can gather some ideas from the sumoforum banzuke gurus.

;-)

[Kashunowaka]

The banzuke committee is completely confused about what to do and is hoping amgaa99 can gather some ideas from the sumoforum banzuke gurus.

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Bah, let the banzuke committee enter their guess in GTB just like everyone else.

[Asashosakari]

The banzuke committee is completely confused about what to do and is hoping amgaa99 can gather some ideas from the sumoforum banzuke gurus.

:-P

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As I said elsewhere, my Juryo banzuke guesses (or perhaps I should say, "suggestions") are always reasonable. ;-)

[Yubiquitoyama]

The banzuke committee is completely confused about what to do and is hoping amgaa99 can gather some ideas from the sumoforum banzuke gurus.

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Bah, let the banzuke committee enter their guess in GTB just like everyone else.

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Hm, I don't know... After three basho when new entrant Hakkaku goes perfect every time, I think GTB would lose some of its charm ;-)