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GTB invite - Hatsu 2026- 363 entries, no more bets please


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Posted
17 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

So everyone had Ouhou before Wakamotoharu at Komusubi? Am I alone again?

 

17 hours ago, Reonito said:

Oho clearly lands at komusubi, WMH belongs at M1 but is getting pushed up there to fill a slot.

See, my thinking would have been that a demoted rikishi always gets the last of the sanyaku spots, regardless of the qualifications of the incoming rikishi.  However, since I'm not playing anymore, I haven't bothered to research this and see whether it's actually what's been done in the past, and it might only apply to Sekiwake (from demoted Ozeki).

Posted
35 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

See, my thinking would have been that a demoted rikishi always gets the last of the sanyaku spots, regardless of the qualifications of the incoming rikishi.

It doesn’t work that way for 7-8 sekiwake demoted to komusubi. They sometimes go ahead of and sometimes go behind newly promoted komusubi.

Posted
2 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

The major differences in ours are Tamawashi, and that you kept Hiradoumi, Oshoma, and Shodai a lot higher than me. Those last three are completely understandable (I'm prepared to be wrong about Hiradoumi and Oshoma, at the very least).

But what's the thought for placing Tamawashi at M5e? The only reason I can think of is believing the committee thinks he needs to be demoted, but they can't come up with a reason to split him between Daieisho and Atami to land him at M4w, so he falls behind both. Is it as simple as that?

Daieisho in front of Atamifuji is a hunch, Atamifuji in front of Tamawashi is just the normal outcome for any "8-7 vs 7-8 across exactly two ranks" decision as far as I'm concerned. Yeah, joi vs not joi, but I didn't see that as big enough of a reason to deviate. Even if Daieisho goes last, I'd expect Atamifuji to be ahead of Tamawashi at M4.

  • Like 2
Posted
1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Going from memory, identical to mine except for flipping the guys at M3 and rearranging the M4e-M5e trio.

Yup, that's our only differences. Makes me feel a little better about the only late change I made - originally I had Shodai as high as M8e rather than M9w, and until right before submitting I still wanted to put him M9e in front of Roga.

Posted
1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

 

See, my thinking would have been that a demoted rikishi always gets the last of the sanyaku spots, regardless of the qualifications of the incoming rikishi.  However, since I'm not playing anymore, I haven't bothered to research this and see whether it's actually what's been done in the past, and it might only apply to Sekiwake (from demoted Ozeki).

Here's the recent history. No shortage of 7-8 S -> K1e. Peruse at leisure to see what the best alternative was in each case.

Posted
42 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Yup, that's our only differences. Makes me feel a little better about the only late change I made - originally I had Shodai as high as M8e rather than M9w, and until right before submitting I still wanted to put him M9e in front of Roga.

I struggled with having him as high as M9w, so hopefully we landed at the right place in the middle. 

Posted

I seem to be the only one who put Takayasu ahead of Kirishima. I couldn’t find any recent examples of a maegashira going ahead of a komusubi in a situation like this. Did I just not look hard enough?

Posted
Just now, Kachikoshi said:

I seem to be the only one who put Takayasu ahead of Kirishima. I couldn’t find any recent examples of a maegashira going ahead of a komusubi in a situation like this. Did I just not look hard enough?

It happens when the difference in records is too big.

Posted
35 minutes ago, Kachikoshi said:

I seem to be the only one who put Takayasu ahead of Kirishima. I couldn’t find any recent examples of a maegashira going ahead of a komusubi in a situation like this. Did I just not look hard enough?

You could be right, there aren't really recent scenarios of two S slots being filled, one by K and one by M, with M having much the better numbers. You'd have to go back to the 90's, not sure how relevant those precedents are, and they're mixed.

Posted
16 hours ago, Reonito said:

Looks like you promoted Oshoumi half a rank after his 7-8. Lots of bold takes.

The perils of a rushed entry when you should be working.

  • Haha 1
Posted

I originally had Shodai and Abi ahead of Roga and wasn't considering them to be in the same tier, but I let myself be influenced by others and moved Roga up and Abi way down. I like Asashosakari's entry better than my own, but it feels awfully harsh for Shodai and Abi to be so far apart while calculating to the same rank.

The section from m9-13 is as tough as I can remember from any GTB.

  • Like 1
Posted
14 hours ago, Kachikoshi said:

I seem to be the only one who put Takayasu ahead of Kirishima. I couldn’t find any recent examples of a maegashira going ahead of a komusubi in a situation like this. Did I just not look hard enough?

you are not 🙃

Posted
17 hours ago, Kachikoshi said:

I seem to be the only one who put Takayasu ahead of Kirishima. I couldn’t find any recent examples of a maegashira going ahead of a komusubi in a situation like this. Did I just not look hard enough?

It's certainly not guaranteed from my point of view, but I think I would give the call to Kirishima like most people have.  The record difference seems to be large enough to overcome the general desire to put the previous Komusubi ahead.  I think it's as close as it could be and still give the nod to Kirishima, so I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a few people go with Takayasu.

Posted
19 hours ago, Kachikoshi said:

I seem to be the only one who put Takayasu ahead of Kirishima. I couldn’t find any recent examples of a maegashira going ahead of a komusubi in a situation like this. Did I just not look hard enough?

For what it's worth, I seriously considered putting Takayasu ahead of Kirishima. 

FinalBanzukeHatsu2026.png.b44f18015929f400274880c5c7ea23d3.png

Posted

Well there's usually one placing which buggers everything up for me. This time it looks like Shodai's turn. I gave him the full 7 ranks demotion which lands him at 12e. Nearly everyone else seems to have equipped him with some kind of parachute.

Posted
6 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Well there's usually one placing which buggers everything up for me. This time it looks like Shodai's turn. I gave him the full 7 ranks demotion which lands him at 12e. Nearly everyone else seems to have equipped him with some kind of parachute.

Don't worry, I also have him there.

Wait, oh maybe you should worry.

  • Like 1
Posted

I'm not exactly sure what I was thinking for M11e-M13e...

Hoshoryu Y Onosato
Kotozakura O Aonishiki
Kirishima S Takayasu
Oho K Wakamotoharu
Ichiyamamoto M1 Yoshinofuji
Ura M2 Wakatakakage
Hakuoho M3 Takanosho
Atamifuji M4 Tamawashi
Daieisho M5 Churanoumi
Hiradoumi M6 Onokatsu
Fujinokawa M7 Oshoma
Gonoyama M8 Kinbozan
Roga M9 Shodai
Tokihayate M10 Kotoshoho
Midorifuji M11 Abi
Chiyoshoma M12 Tobizaru
Nishikifuji M13 Tomokaze
Shishi M14 Mitakeumi
Ryuden M15 Asakoryu
Asanoyama M16 Asahakuryu
Oshoumi M17 Hatsuyama
Posted
On 16/12/2025 at 16:29, Fia said:
  Reveal hidden contents

 

Y1w 12-3 D +0.5 Y1 Y1e 11-4 -0.5
                 
O1e 8-7 O1 S1e 12-3 YGS  ↑ 
                 
                 
M2e 11-4 K  ↑  S1 K1w 8-7  ↑ 
                 
S1w
Oho
7-8  ↓  K1 M2w 8-7  ↑ 
                 
M8e 11-4 K +7 M1 M5e 9-6 +3.5
M3w
Ura
8-7 +1.5 M2 M1w 7-8 -1
K1e 5-10  ↓  M3 M1e 6-9 -2.5
M4e 7-8 M4 M10e 10-5 +5.5
M6e 8-7 +1 M5 M7e 8-7 +1.5
M3e 4-11 -3 M6 M6w 7-8
M12e 9-6 +5 M7 M13e 9-6 +5.5
M4w 4-11 -3.5 M8 M8w 7-8
M11w 8-7 +2.5 M9 M5w 4-11 -4
M14w 9-6 +4.5 M10 M10w 7-8
M9e 6-9 -2 M11 M17e 10-5 +5.5
M15e 9-6 +3 M12 M9w 6-9 -3
M7w
Abi
5-10 -5.5 M13 M12w 7-8 -1
M11e 6-9 -3 M14 M13w 7-8 -1
M14e 7-8 -1 M15 J4w 12-3  ↑ 
M17w 8-7 +1.5 M16 J2w 10-5  ↑ 
M16e 7-8 -1 M17 J5e 11-4  ↑ 

 

Violated my usual rule of KK/MK ties ending up in favour of the KK for Midorifuji for reasons I'm not sure about anymore, which I'm probably gonna regret. The other regret is probably going to be Takanosho ahead of Hakuoho, but that was a conscious gamble at least...

 

54 points for me, got shafted in the juryo promotions (as did most people), lost some points for Shodais parachute (M8e vs M9w and the knock-on effects) though not as much as some others. Minus 5 points in the Midorifuji/Chiyoshoma/Nishikifuji trio as predicted. Another 5 gone in the Tamawashi/Daieisho/Atamin triangle. Got the Takanosho > Hakuoho gamble right at least. 

Expecting another 9-6 as usual. Good enough to beat the field, probably not good enough to be a good score.

 

image.png.105ca4ec3f24439e5ebc1eaab92dcae9.png

Posted

Really full demotions this time - I was counting on more lenient treatment of the higher ranked makekoshi - a miserable result for sure

Posted
3 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Really full demotions this time - I was counting on more lenient treatment of the higher ranked makekoshi - a miserable result for sure

Except for Shodai, who got everyone's luck. (And Oshoma, but at least he had a more-or-less full joi schedule.)

Posted

67 for me.

  • Takanosho/Hakuoho the wrong way around at M3 (-2)
  • Ditto Oshoma/Fujinokawa at M7 (-2)
  • Shodai three spots too low (is M8e instead of M9w), which knocked off points for Gonoyama and Roga as well (-5)
  • Abi and Tobizaru the wrong way around at M12w/M13e (-4)
  • and again with Asahakuryu/Oshoumi at M16w/M17e (-4)

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