Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Kyushu 2025

[Gurowake]

Makuuchi<>Juryo

There are way too many people with promotable records and not nearly enough with demotable records to make room for them.  Too many of the promotion candidates are borderline for them to likely consider overdemoting rikishi, so it's a good bet that the bubble Makuuchi rikishi fighting Juryo opponents will be safe if they win, and demoted if they don't.  There's no one else even close to being on the bubble who might get into a worse position than those two with a loss to even begin to consider overdemoting for the last Juryo rikishi in contention (closest looks to be Shishi, who's a win above safety level already).  Thus it's reasonable to think we'll have Meisei, Sadanoumi, Shonannoumi, plus whoever among Asakoryu and Oshoumi lose.

For promotion contenders, the three for-sure demotions look like they'll definitely have their places taken by Asahakuryu, Hatsuyama, and Asanoyama, all of whom have one win more than they need to be promotable.  While they can be passed by Kotoeiho in the queue, his win will open up another spot.  Fujiseiun wouldn't pass them in the queue with a win, but also would make his own spot with a win.  Daiseizan looks to be out of luck; it would be weird for them to promote him over Fujiseiun when the latter wins to open up another spot, even with the disconnect between torikumi and banzuke makers, and there's no reasonable choice to overdemote to make room for him should he have an extra win beyond the normal promotion criteria.  The closest there might be is a winning Oshoumi, but only one win over a promotable record usually doesn't merit a Makuuchi overdemotion even from a worse relative position that Oshoumi would be in.

[Gurowake]

Sanyaku:

A lot will hinge on Aonishiki being promoted or not.  It seems obvious that if he ends up winning the Yusho he'll be promoted, and my guess is if he loses to Kotozakura he won't be promoted.  I said before the tournament that 12 wins without a Yusho wouldn't quite be good enough, and I mostly stand by that.  They already gave the guy a hard time getting promoted to sanyaku, it's only 3 basho later, and while he has been remarkably consistent, I wouldn't put it past them to want another good tournament from someone so young and new to Makuuchi, in which he'd only need 10 wins given the 23 in the previous two basho (and likewise 11 again if he loses his match to get to 22/2).

There's only one rikishi with the numbers for sanyaku promotion currently - Kirishima, who is almost a lock to return to Sekiwake, but if Aonishiki is not promoted and Takayasu wins, they could give the second Sekiwake slot to the latter.  There's three rikishi who need one win to get to a promotable record - Wakamotoharu, Ura, and Yoshinofuji.  That's likely the order they'll be promoted, though by the numbers Yoshinofuji would be above Ura; I barely give the nod to Ura here with the somewhat tougher schedule, sanyaku experience, and newness of Yoshinofuji, though Yoshinofuji beating both Aonishiki and Onosato might be enough, and he would open up his own spot.

None of those sanyaku candidates are facing each other, though Yoshinofuji is facing Takayasu, who likely needs a win to stay in sanyaku, but without good promotion candidates they could leave him at west Komusubi.  Another match among promotion candidates is Ura vs. Kirishima, but this has no bearing on whether Kirishima is promoted (just potentially which rank he gets).  Oho also likely needs a win to stay in sanyaku, but there's recent precedent (even if only from Komusubi) to potentially only demote him to Komusubi with a loss, even if that wouldn't have happened only a few years ago.  Given that there's so much that's up in the air concerning the number of spots available and the likelihood of the maegashira taking spots if tons of people involved lose, it's really hard to say much more at this juncture regarding what will happen in various scenarios.

[Asashosakari]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

You're missing the ones that NEVER went 33/3, which includes Goeido at very least.  Also, there are ton (at least 6) that fit into the case mentioned in the last part of your post, such that they only really had one extended run of 4 good tournaments.  

Yeah, also for instance Dejima who shows as having done it "three" times, but it's actually just his ozeki run plus the first two tournaments after the promotion. Silly query.

[Koorifuu]

Personally, I'm stoked that Dewanoryu finally made it. He's had it coming for a long time but kept falling short.

[maglor]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

You're missing the ones that NEVER went 33/3, which includes Goeido at very least.  Also, there are ton (at least 6) that fit into the case mentioned in the last part of your post, such that they only really had one extended run of 4 good tournaments.  

You're right there's probably a decent amount more from the early Ozeki who were getting promoted with 30 wins. Still I think it's pretty surprising that Takayasu is close to the bottom, you wouldn't really think that about him.

[maglor]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

You're missing the ones that NEVER went 33/3, which includes Goeido at very least.  Also, there are ton (at least 6) that fit into the case mentioned in the last part of your post, such that they only really had one extended run of 4 good tournaments.  

You're right there's probably some more from the early Ozeki who got promoted off 30 wins. But still surprising to me to see Takayasu well below average in this stat

[Sumo Spiffy]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Sanyaku:

A lot will hinge on Aonishiki being promoted or not.  It seems obvious that if he ends up winning the Yusho he'll be promoted, and my guess is if he loses to Kotozakura he won't be promoted.  I said before the tournament that 12 wins without a Yusho wouldn't quite be good enough, and I mostly stand by that.  They already gave the guy a hard time getting promoted to sanyaku, it's only 3 basho later, and while he has been remarkably consistent, I wouldn't put it past them to want another good tournament from someone so young and new to Makuuchi, in which he'd only need 10 wins given the 23 in the previous two basho (and likewise 11 again if he loses his match to get to 22/2).

This is partly going by the conversation with Akinomaki in another thread, part research, but I'm pretty sure the playoff will get him there. Maybe it blows up in his face if he makes the playoff and gets absolutely smoked, but Aonishiki's so good at staying in fights, that seems like the most unlikely outcome.

As for the san'yaku: if Aonishiki is promoted, Takanosho beats Oho, and Yoshi beats Takayasu (that is, all four spots theoretically opening up), that's the only way I can see any of the bottom three sticking around. Even then, it might take Kiri beating Ura for it to happen. I suppose I wouldn't be shocked if Yoshi only gets bumped to M1e and Takayasu holds rank, but M5e is still the joi, and he fought every san'yaku wrestler that mattered.

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Oho also likely needs a win to stay in sanyaku, but there's recent precedent (even if only from Komusubi) to potentially only demote him to Komusubi with a loss, even if that wouldn't have happened only a few years ago.

I would not expect this precedent to mean anything when all the potential promotees are in the joi. Besides, if he and Takayasu both lose, Takayasu should have more of an argument for holding his spot than Oho does for bumping him out.

[Reonito]

FWIW looks like Aki 2021 was the last time they scheduled two crossover M/J bouts, and the exchanges went according to the results.

[Gurowake]

1 minute ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

M5e is still the joi, and he fought every san'yaku wrestler that mattered.

It certainly means something that he missed the two worst sanyaku this tournament given that they didn't entirely bomb and are likely to stay in the joi (Oho definitely so).  He also missed the top 3 joi maegashira, one of whom had the best joi record outside the top 4 on the banzuke.  3 of the replacements for those 5 missed joi rikishi are not going to be in the joi next tournament and Churanoumi needs to win and hope there's room, so that's like 4 wins that were against opponents who are neither in the joi now nor likely to be next tournament.  The only non-joi maegashira he faced that will (presumably) be in the joi, he lost to (Ichiyamamoto).  Ura faced all the joi except Hiradoumi (who didn't do so great) so that's 3 more top-quality opponents for Ura.  All that, along with the experience being in Ura's favor, is why I'm leaning towards Ura getting the spot if there's only one open and they both win. I still admit that they may fail to really recognize how many of Yoshinofuji's wins were relatively easy, and his beating of 2 of the top 4 certainly improves his chances, which is why I won't definitely give the nod to Ura.

[Sumo Spiffy]

1 minute ago, Gurowake said:

It certainly means something that he missed the two worst sanyaku this tournament given that they didn't entirely bomb and are likely to stay in the joi (Oho definitely so).  He also missed the top 3 joi maegashira, one of whom had the best joi record outside the top 4 on the banzuke.  3 of the replacements for those 5 missed joi rikishi are not going to be in the joi next tournament and Churanoumi needs to win and hope there's room, so that's like 4 wins that were against opponents who are neither in the joi now nor likely to be next tournament.  The only non-joi maegashira he faced that will (presumably) be in the joi, he lost to (Ichiyamamoto).  Ura faced all the joi except Hiradoumi (who didn't do so great) so that's 3 more top-quality opponents for Ura.  All that, along with the experience being in Ura's favor, is why I'm leaning towards Ura getting the spot if there's only one open and they both win. I still admit that they may fail to really recognize how many of Yoshinofuji's wins were relatively easy, and his beating of 2 of the top 4 certainly improves his chances, which is why I won't definitely give the nod to Ura.

Given that he was at the edge of contention, and got contender matchups rather than losing san'yaku opponents, I don't think they're going to hold that against him. My main point with Yoshi being in the joi is that I don't think they're going to keep him out on 10-5 in favor of anyone already there who should drop (6-9 Oho/7-8 Takayasu).

What I hadn't considered is this: Ura loses to Kiri, Takayasu beats Yoshi, Takanosho beats Oho, and Aonishiki gets promoted. That leaves what should be three open spots, but after Kirishima and Wakamotoharu, Ura's 8-7 is the next best option (like you, I think Ura will be chosen over Yoshi if they're one win apart). They haven't had to promote an 8-7 record from M3 or lower to kick out a 6-9 sekiwake since Chiyotairyu after Hatsu 2018, and the one before that was Aminishiki in Aki 2008. So, even if they treat the 6-9 san'yaku vs. non-joi as a different question than 6-9 san'yaku vs. joi, they still may keep Oho because they clearly think about things differently than they did back then. 

[Tigerboy1966]

If he wins tomorrow Daisezan will be the first J3 to go 10-5 and NOT get promoted since Oginohana in 1995.

I am sure this will be a great comfort to him.

Oh Daiseizan, what are we going to do with you son?

[Reonito]

Just now, Tigerboy1966 said:

If he wins tomorrow Daisezan will be the first J3 to go 10-5 and NOT get promoted since Oginohana in 1995.

I am sure this will be a great comfort to him.

Oh Daiseizan, what are we going to do with you son?

I had just done that query. Only 8 misses in 100 chances since 1958. Amazingly, it happened to Oginohana twice in 1995.

[Reonito]

3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I said before the tournament that 12 wins without a Yusho wouldn't quite be good enough, and I mostly stand by that.

I guess the question is whether a doten loss would count more than a more run-of-the-mill 12.

[Gurowake]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

I guess the question is whether a doten loss would count more than a more run-of-the-mill 12.

I personally think a playoff loss is WORSE than not being in a playoff.  Because, you know, you lost an additional match you could have won.  But I'm weird.

[Tigerboy1966]

5 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Amazingly, it happened to Oginohana twice in 1995.

Yes but Oginohana had already promoted and demoted SIX times before then (the Kagayaki of his generation) so it may have been a case of "oh no, not this guy again".

[Reonito]

11 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I personally think a playoff loss is WORSE than not being in a playoff.  Because, you know, you lost an additional match you could have won.  But I'm weird.

Given how much emphasis they place on being in contention for the yusho, 12-3 D has got to be viewed more favorably than 12-3 behind 15-0.

[Tigerboy1966]

Will Aonishiki be promoted (according to the Magic 8 Ball):

1. He loses to Kotonowaka = MY REPLY IS NO

2. He beats Kotonowaka and wins the play-off = IT IS CERTAIN

3. He beats Kotonawaka and loses the play-off = REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN

Edited November 22 by Tigerboy1966
correction

[Bunbukuchagama]

31 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I personally think a playoff loss is WORSE than not being in a playoff.  Because, you know, you lost an additional match you could have won.  But I'm weird.

But a playoff win is better than winning in regulation, right? This is the logic that made Hoshoryu a Yokozuna. 

[Reonito]

Juryo demotion queue: J14e Shiden (5-7-2), J13e Himukamaru (4-10), J3e Mita (0-3-11), J10e Hakuyozan (4-10).

Makushita promotion queue: Ms1w Kyokukaiyu (5-2), Ms3w Dewanoryu (5-1), Ms15w Kazuma (7-0), Ms5w Seihakuho (3-3).

As discussed extensively, Hakuyozan should get a very lucky reprieve even with a loss, especially given the day 15 scheduling.

[Reonito]

Makuuchi demotion queue: Meisei, Shonannoumi, Sadanoumi, Oshoumi, Asakoryu.

Juryo promotion queue: Asahakuryu, Asanoyama, Hatsuyama, Kotoeiho, Fujiseiun, Daiseizan. Daiseizan has rapidly gone from first to 6th in the promotion queue and should be out of luck even with a win. The final two spots will almost certainly come down to the results of the two day 15 crossover bouts.

[Reonito]

Sanyaku demotion queue: K1e Takanosho (5-9), S1w Oho (6-8), K1w Takayasu (7-7).

Sanyaku promotion queue: M2e Kirishima (10-4), M2w Wakamotoharu (8-6), M5e Yoshinofuji (9-5), M3w Ura (8-6), M8e Ichiyamamoto (10-4). Yoshinofuji vs. Takayasu tomorrow looks like an exchange bout; the rest is clear as mud, though Ichiyamamoto seems like a long shot even if he wins.

[Oskanohana]

Regarding Takayasu as komusubi, you guys seem to be forgetting the komusubi-ozeki special rules that only apply to Takayasu. He is komusubi-kadoban as he was makekoshi on his last basho. If he makekoshis again, he'll go down to maegashira from where he can regain his komusubi status with simply 8 wins (this I'm assuming, might be 9). If he kachi-koshis tomorrow, he gets to stay as komusubi for the next two tournaments. What is not exactly clear is the rules for his potential promotion to sekiwake. Hopefully, the kyokai makes public those rules soon enough. I just hope that when he becomes Mahaderu Oyakata (or whatever kabu he gets), he's referred properly as former komusubi Takayasu and they forget about that ozeki thing that's way in the past and not at all memorable.

[Tigerboy1966]

7 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Ichiyamamoto seems like a long shot even if he wins.

I don't know about that. If he beats WMH and Kirishima beats Ura he has a good shot at komusubi whatever happens with Oho v Takanosho.

The winner of Yoshinofuji v Takayasu will be above him, but the loser would be just below him btn.

The jo'i schedule of the men above him might be a barrier. On the other hand an Aonishiki promotion would open up an additional slot.

[Reonito]

3 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I don't know about that. If he beats WMH and Kirishima beats Ura he has a good shot at komusubi whatever happens with Oho v Takanosho.

The winner of Yoshinofuji v Takayasu will be above him, but the loser would be just below him btn.

The jo'i schedule of the men above him might be a barrier. On the other hand an Aonishiki promotion would open up an additional slot.

I feel like even with 4 open slots, his edge by the numbers will be small enough that any of the 4 ahead of him in the queue would get priority, regardless of tomorrow's outcomes. But this could definitely go any number of ways.

[Gurowake]

22 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I don't know about that. If he beats WMH and Kirishima beats Ura he has a good shot at komusubi whatever happens with Oho v Takanosho.

The winner of Yoshinofuji v Takayasu will be above him, but the loser would be just below him btn.

The jo'i schedule of the men above him might be a barrier. On the other hand an Aonishiki promotion would open up an additional slot.

I didn't mention Ichiyamamoto in my analysis because he's not going to be able to get a record that's worthy of promotion to sanyaku, he hasn't been in sanyaku before (nor even in the top 3 maegashira ranks!), and there are multiple KK rikishi in the joi who are currently only one win from a promotable record that are only slightly behind him solely by the numbers if they lose and he wins.  Not having a promotable record by the numbers is generally a pretty big barrier to promotion from outside the joi when there's something else they can go with instead, doubly so for someone who would make a debut vs. someone who wouldn't be.  The only thing that might be in his favor is that he's facing WMH who is another contender for a sanyaku spot, so finishing with the needed win to even be in consideration is a strong finish with two wins against other sanyaku contenders the last two days.  I don't really think it's intended as a promotion playoff though; it's really just a joi rikishi with a KK vs. a mid-maegashira with a good record who needs to be tested against high-ranked opponents since a lot of his wins came against people near the bottom of the division..

Edited November 22 by Gurowake