Guess Ura's Aite - November 2025 edition

[Profomisakari]

Day 13 - Kirishima

[Jejima]

13 - I'm going for Hakuoho, basically because I can't see an obvious alternative pick for Hakuoho....   

[Sumo Spiffy]

13. Kirishima

I don't like this either, though. If I remember after the deadline, I'll lay out what I think will happen. The reason I'm not going with that is it leaves a muddled situation between Onokatsu and Abi, and maybe Atamifuji. And, once you get to that point, other options can creep in by surprise. 

So, weirdly, I'm picking Kiri not because I think it's right, but because I think it's the most likely alternative to what I think is right.

Edited November 19 by Sumo Spiffy

[Fashiritētā]

13.Kirishima , just cant see it being Hakuoho on my end , but blind squirrel, nut.

[Bunbukuchagama]

13. Kirishima

[Sumo Spiffy]

OK, going by recent tendencies:

• Joi wrestlers with eight losses stop getting scheduled against anyone with a winning record. This has been consistent enough that even with no clue what the overall schedule will look like, picking Hakuoho seems like a bad idea.
• San'yaku wrestlers can potentially get picked to face eight-win maegashira as long as they don't have eight losses. That winds up breaking the Takanosho/Yoshinofuji match which would be made according to standard practice. But they can just flip opponents, putting Oho against Yoshi and Takanosho against Oshoma, so that doesn't materially affect much.

This is where it gets a little squirrely. Tokihayate and Nishikifuji are both 8-3. It would make all the sense in the world for them to face some combination of Atamifuji, Ichiyamamoto, and Roga. And that might happen. But considering how consistently eight-win maegashira who are in contention get yeeted up the ranks, Takayasu/Toki and Kiri/Nishikifuji is very possible. My expectation is they'll either do that, or give Takayasu a more normal matchup and do Kiri against one and Wakamotoharu or Atamifuji against the other. Both versions take Kiri out as an opponent for Ura.

But if I'm right, I have no idea who Ura faces. Normally Ura v. Atamifuji would make sense, but since 7-4 is at the edge of contention and 6-5 really isn't, Atami v. Roga might be more likely. Then is it Waka Deux v. Onokatsu and Ura against Abi? Or, if they have to get opponents outside the joi, does the committee decide those opponents should have winning records? Is Ichiyamamoto one of them, even though by this logic he should probably face Chiyoshoma?

And how does all this change if they wait until the matches are done to finalize the schedule?

[Bunbukuchagama]

I don't think they can afford to have Tokihayate/Nishikifuji join a possible playoff without ever facing any of the top dogs. Consequently, I would sacrifice Hoshoryu-KTZ bout and throw both of them at the low-ranked pretenders. It's too late to run them through the usual sanyaku gauntlet starting from K and up. 

There is also the question of Yoshinofuji. I see 3 ways of handling it:

1. Ignore the records and keep going down the sanyaku tree (Oho).

2. Let him handle one of Tokihayate/Nishikifuji (contrary to the above).

3. Find a joi opponent with the best record (Kirishima)

The last option is the one that would disrupt Ura-Kirishima (Giving Ura Atamifuji, for example). 

If they wait for the results, a Tokihayate/Nishikifuji double loss would restore Hoshoryu-KTZ, but a double win would lead to what I described above.

[Jakusotsu]

1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Joi wrestlers with eight losses stop getting scheduled against anyone with a winning record. This has been consistent enough that even with no clue what the overall schedule will look like, picking Hakuoho seems like a bad idea.

Now I'm just glad I didn't have that data before making my uninspired pick. 

Jakusotsu (S1w) 12-1
Jejima (M2w) 12-1
Sumo Spiffy (Ye) 12-1
Bunbukuchagama (Oe) 12-1
Oshirokita (S1e) 12-1
Fashiriteta (S2e) 12-1
Profomisakari (M1e) 12-1
Ryoshishokunin (M2e) 11-1-1
shimodahito (Ke) 11-2
Kachikoshi (Kw) 10-3
Athenayama (bg) 9-4
The Kyokai (M3e) 0-13
Gurowake (YOw) 0-0-13
Andonishiki (M1w) kosho

Ura's aites: 1. Tamawashi, 2. Oshoma, 3. Yoshinofuji, 4. Oho, 5. Kotozakura, 6. Aonishiki, 7. Onosato, 8. Hoshoryu, 9. Wakamotoharu, 10. Takanosho, 11. Takayasu, 12. Wakatakakage, 13. Hakuoho

[Jakusotsu]

What really puzzles me is why the opponents of Tokihayate and Nishikifuji weren't done the other way round.

[Bunbukuchagama]

If records don't matter on Day 13, when will they ever matter?

[shimodahito]

14.midorifuji

[Ryoshishokunin]

6 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

If records don't matter on Day 13, when will they ever matter?

I mean they mattered--but they only had bad options to choose from.  And their optimiser isn't very good.

Uh. 
14. Churanoumi?

[Athenayama]

Day 14 : Churanoumi

[Sakura]

7 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

What really puzzles me is why the opponents of Tokihayate and Nishikifuji weren't done the other way round.

Same-stable.

 

[Jakusotsu]

Sorry for picking late. Plenty of options, I'm going for a crowd-pleaser:

Day 14 - Midorifuji

[Sakura]

With Kotozakura now mathematically out of the Yusho race they could split Onosato-Kotozakura up. Aonishiki-Hoshoryu ought to still happen and the rest of sanyaku is not genki.

[Jejima]

I know this looks weird, but I am thinking.....

day 3 - Hiradoumi

[Kachikoshi]

14. Kirishima

[Sumo Spiffy]

11 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Now I'm just glad I didn't have that data before making my uninspired pick. 

I had Hakuoho typed out, then I looked back and I said to myself, out loud, "They haven't been doing this at all... watch this be the time." 

[Sumo Spiffy]

14. Hiradoumi

I agree that this one seems very odd, but the alternative I have is Abi, and I can't get the matchups further down the line to work without Abi being involved.

[Profomisakari]

Day 14 Atamifuji

[Oshirokita]

14. Hiradoumi

I thought my Day 13 pick was pretty solid but even though I got all the important leader pairings correct, the Kyokai had other ideas for Ura. I don't think Hiradoumi is the best choice for Day 14, but suspect that the Kyokai will pick him anyways.

[Reonito]

18 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

If records don't matter on Day 13, when will they ever matter?

Rearranging the top 4 round-robin just because a random M14 stumbled into a 9-3 start but still trails 3 Y/S leaders seems like overkill. But sure, that's sorta how we got a Kotohosho yusho.

[Fashiritētā]

14.Hiradoumi

[Bunbukuchagama]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Rearranging the top 4 round-robin just because a random M14 stumbled into a 9-3 start but still trails 3 Y/S leaders seems like overkill. But sure, that's sorta how we got a Kotohosho yusho.

Exactly. If Tokihayate wins today, we will be looking at a possibility of a low Maegashira winning the yusho (or at least getting into the playoff) after facing no more than 2 Sanyaku opponents. Before today, his highest ranked opponent was a M12. This is worse than Kotoshoho, this is a Tokushoryu-level disaster. 

It feels like we are dealing with a very lazy committee now; they have a pre-planned (and entirely rank-based) template for the whole basho and try to adjust it as little as possible no matter what.

Edited November 21 by Bunbukuchagama