Sekitori-Toto

[Sakana]

Hello,

I'm wondering what is the best score on one day at sekitori toto (I mean : how right picks on a day).

Because, I did 29/34 today (and I had a smile on my face all the day ;-) ) and may be it is a top 10 result, isn't it ?

How about it in the statistics ? (Applauding...)

I feel really happy today (Applauding...) (and I hope tomorrow I'll not do a low score (Applauding...))

Thanks you. (I hope somebody could answer me ^^)

(and forgive me for my poor english :-P (Applauding...))

[Asashosakari]

Hmm, somebody is looking for Kashunowaka's arm again... :-O

[Mark Buckton]

what about lowest score of the day without being kyujo? I may be up for that.

:-O

Think us lower level selectors should get something - just for making up the numbers! :-D

[Sakana]

First, we can't make a comparison between all of the right picks because the number of bouts to pick is not the same between all the basho...

But if we just look at the number of right picks, we can see :

NAGOYA 2004 - Day 6

- Wenkoyama 30 (right picks)

HARU 2004 - Day 4

- Mariotoki 29

NAGOYA 2004 - Day 6

- Yamato 29

- Duran 29

- Igiski 29

- Toschima 29

NAGOYA 2004 - Day 8

- Igiski 29

- Shayoto 29

NAGOYA 2004 - Day 9

- Anjoboshi 29

- Onigashima 29

KY

Edited November 21, 2004 by Sakana

[Mark Buckton]

;-)

well adachi-no-luck you got perhaps the most unenviable position in seki toto today. the person who is the top ranked loser and misses out on the win by a fraction.

i had a 22 and was nowhere. tough day.

:'-( just checked - tell me about it. (bloody draw pickers!) bet they drive sensible cars too!

[Kashunowaka]

Hello,

I'm wondering what is the best score on one day at sekitori toto (I mean : how right picks on a day).

Because, I did 29/34 today (and I had a smile on my face all the day (Applauding...) ) and may be it is a top 10 result, isn't it ?

Yes indeed!

<pre>

Highest score percentage

Nr Player Basho Day Score Bouts %

--------------------------------------------------------------

1. Gernobono Nagoya 2002 13 25.0 28 89.3

2. Maksyan Nagoya 2003 1 27.0 31 87.1

2. Ulishimaru Natsu 2003 11 27.0 31 87.1

4. Wenkoyama Nagoya 2004 6 30.0 35 85.7

5. Sakana Kyushu 2004 7 29.0 34 85.3

6. Itachiyama Aki 2002 7 25.5 30 85.0

7. Yokozuna Natsu 2004 10 27.0 32 84.4

7. Kintamayama Natsu 2004 10 27.0 32 84.4

9. Chiyonotora Natsu 2002 8 26.0 31 83.9

9. Pastanoyama Nagoya 2003 1 26.0 31 83.9

9. Zenjimoto Natsu 2002 8 26.0 31 83.9

9. Remonishiki Natsu 2002 8 26.0 31 83.9

9. Tobikoyama Nagoya 2003 1 26.0 31 83.9

9. Asashosakari Aki 2003 6 26.0 31 83.9

9. Heikotoriki Nagoya 2003 2 26.0 31 83.9

9. Toschima Kyushu 2002 15 26.0 31 83.9

</pre>

what about lowest score of the day without being kyujo? I may be up for that.

Nope. Your worst score is 12 points out of 34 (35.3%), which is the 196th worst score ever, excluding kyujo ... (Whistling...) These are the worst:

<pre>

Lowest score percentage

Nr Player Basho Day Score Bouts %

--------------------------------------------------------------

1. Takahishi Natsu 2002 11 5.0 30 16.7

2. Shinkansen Natsu 2002 11 6.0 30 20.0

2. Hitotsuboshi Natsu 2002 11 6.0 30 20.0

4. Kachikachiyama Haru 2003 9 6.0 29 20.7

5. Kachikachiyama Kyushu 2003 3 7.0 33 21.2

6. Kazetoshi Hatsu 2003 3 7.0 31 22.6

7. Hamamiharu Hatsu 2004 1 8.0 34 23.5

8. Rayama Hatsu 2003 13 7.0 29 24.1

9. Coo-cook Natsu 2004 5 8.0 32 25.0

9. Choshu-yuki Natsu 2004 14 8.0 32 25.0

</pre>

My own worst score is 12/35, thus slightly worse than Adachinoryu's.

Edited December 14, 2004 by Exil

[Sakana]

thanks a lot for these statistics !!! (Applauding...) :-/

I'm really happy (Laughing...)

[sekihiryu]

My best showing was in May basho this year, Day 3 27 right 6 wrong 81.2%

Is it possible, Kashunowaka, to find out who has the highest career daily average?

I am curious to know, I am guessing about 65-70% lifetime average :-/

[Asashosakari]

Those stats must be wrong, it's absolutely impossible that I'm among the top 10 daily scores but not the bottom 10. (Laughing...) :-P :-)

Lowest score percentage
Nr  Player               Basho         Day  Score  Bouts     %
--------------------------------------------------------------
 1. Takahishi            Natsu 2002    11     5.0    30   16.7
 2. Shinkansen           Natsu 2002    11     6.0    30   20.0
 2. Hitotsuboshi         Natsu 2002    11     6.0    30   20.0

I wonder what those three guys did wrong on that day...I just checked and it's a completely ordinary day other than that. Top score in the 80% range, median 19 of 30...weird. Everybody else that day had at least 14.5 points.

Edit, after I've had some time to dig through my own results:

Is it possible, Kashunowaka, to find out who has the highest career daily average?

I am curious to know, I am guessing about 65-70% lifetime average (Bye, bye...)

That strikes me as a little high...I'm 98-66-1 over my Seki-Toto "career" up to Aki basho, and not counting the kyujo day, my winning percentage is only 57.5% (3025 of 5258). But I'm not a terribly high scorer, I just get wins on more days than I get losses. ;-) So it's possible that somebody has vastly outscored me, although I doubt it's to the tune of 10 percentage points.

To give my personal slant to the other stats that Kashu has dug up, my worst day ever appears to have been Aki 2003 Day 2 with 10/31 (32.3%), followed by two more results under 35% (10/30 and 12/35). Guess it wasn't quite as bad as I expected, although worse than both Kashunowaka and ANR's worst scores. (Whistling...)

Edited December 14, 2004 by Exil

[Kashunowaka]

My best showing was in May basho this year, Day 3 27 right 6 wrong 81.2%

Is it possible, Kashunowaka, to find out who has the highest career daily average?

I am curious to know, I am guessing about 65-70% lifetime average (Applauding...)

That would indeed be a little high, as Asashosakari guessed. Your career average is 56.8%.

It turns out that the all-time career average list is of academic interest only. It is topped by players who have played only a few days:

<pre>

Highest score average, minimum 0 days

Nr Player Days Points Bouts %

------------------------------------------------------

1. Vaho 3 73.0 102 71.57

2. Ub 1 22.0 34 64.71

3. Usaginosora 1 20.0 31 64.52

4. Araiwa 8 174.0 276 63.04

5. Amenokojima 1 22.0 35 62.86

6. Onzoushi_oyakata 1 20.0 32 62.50

7. Saschashoryu 8 170.0 276 61.59

8. Titonohana 4 86.0 140 61.43

9. Tachiyama 8 150.5 246 61.18

10. Ecm 9 182.0 298 61.07

</pre>

If we require at least 15 days, this is the list:

<pre>

Highest score average, minimum 15 days

Nr Player Days Points Bouts %

------------------------------------------------------

1. Okeshi 34 608.0 1006 60.44

2. Tokimori 18 332.0 551 60.25

3. Mushi 98 1980.5 3292 60.16

4. Norizo 158 3068.0 5117 59.96

5. Takashoryu 80 1621.0 2715 59.71

6. Yoma 67 1359.0 2283 59.53

7. Kitakachiyama 67 1345.5 2267 59.35

8. Kashunowaka 113 2198.0 3704 59.34

9. Flohru 233 4376.5 7377 59.33

10. Jonosuke 40 701.5 1185 59.20

</pre>

And if we require at least 90 days, it's all familiar names at the top:

<pre>

Highest score average, minimum 90 days

Nr Player Days Points Bouts %

------------------------------------------------------

1. Mushi 98 1980.5 3292 60.16

2. Norizo 158 3068.0 5117 59.96

3. Kashunowaka 113 2198.0 3704 59.34

4. Flohru 233 4376.5 7377 59.33

5. Itachiyama 173 3206.5 5424 59.12

6. Ekigozan 196 3664.5 6199 59.11

7. Doitsuyama 248 4619.0 7828 59.01

8. Zenjimoto 248 4606.0 7828 58.84

9. Marionoumi 161 2969.5 5051 58.79

10. Igiski 222 4113.0 7006 58.71

11. Chiyozakura 105 1850.5 3158 58.60

12. Dimitri 230 4264.0 7285 58.53

13. Heruwejima 228 4226.5 7223 58.51

14. Mariohana 233 4314.0 7377 58.48

15. Akibono 131 2420.5 4140 58.47

16. Gaijingai 232 4292.5 7345 58.44

17. Asashimaru 104 2016.0 3450 58.43

18. Sashimaru 248 4573.5 7828 58.42

19. Tamanaogijima 243 4483.0 7674 58.42

20. Hamanoyama 144 2638.0 4519 58.38

</pre>

Sekihiryu is #85 on the last list. Asashosakari is #47. Out of those who have played every single day of Sekitoto, Doitsuyama (who else?) is number 1, very closely followed by Zenjimoto as you can see.

Anyone cares to guess who is the *worst* player that has played for more than 90 days? (Blinking...)

Edited December 14, 2004 by Exil

[Doitsuyama]

Anyone cares to guess who is the *worst* player that has played for more than 90 days? (Applauding...)

How about the drone at 50%? Or is it possible to go consistently below 50%?...

[Kashunowaka]

Anyone cares to guess who is the *worst* player that has played for more than 90 days? (Blinking...)

How about the drone at 50%? Or is it possible to go consistently below 50%?...

(Applauding...) Correct!

Choshu-yuki with 51.2% is the worst human player of those with more than 90 days played. Going for upsets has its price.

[sekihiryu]

Thank you! (In a state of confusion...) excellent work! 85th huh? at least I am in the top 100 :-P .

So Mushi is the one then, from Belgium right?, I notice he/she is 8-1 this Basho - awesome, but only in Juryo on the Toto banzuke though, interesting.

Toto is the one game I really like and want to improve on

and a win in ISP to close within 1 of the lead

hmm that was my sole lead until I blew it today with Roho, such is life.

[Kashunowaka]

So Mushi is the one then, from Belgium right?, I notice he/she is 8-1 this Basho - awesome, but only in Juryo on the Toto banzuke though, interesting.

Nishinoshima asked in a related topic: "Is it just me, or are standards rising?" The answer is: yes, scores in sumo games are seeing an upward trend since about two years.

Sekitoto stats up until Kyushu basho day 8:

<pre>

Basho score average

Basho Points Bouts %

-------------------------------------

Haru 2002 15639.5 27755 56.3

Natsu 2002 24960.0 43132 57.9

Nagoya 2002 23491.5 40334 58.2

Aki 2002 25445.5 43359 58.7

Kyushu 2002 30366.5 54624 55.6

Hatsu 2003 31176.5 55688 56.0

Haru 2003 31938.5 58708 54.4

Natsu 2003 36727.5 65974 55.7

Nagoya 2003 31445.0 55557 56.6

Aki 2003 34404.5 60369 57.0

Kyushu 2003 42244.0 74867 56.4

Hatsu 2004 43954.5 76285 57.6

Haru 2004 50717.5 87668 57.9

Natsu 2004 48144.0 83592 57.6

Nagoya 2004 49316.0 83475 59.1

Aki 2004 46588.0 85235 54.7

Kyushu 2004 27382.0 47028 58.2

</pre>

The first four basho in Toto mark the end of the Musashimaru era. Aki 2002 was also Takanohana's last complete basho. Kyushu 2002 and onwards saw a change of guard with a new yokozuna being born, and lots of injuries among top-rankers. After that, things have stabilized (you could stay stagnated) with more predictable results as a consequence. It remains to be seen whether Aki 2004 was a mere accident.

It might of course be that the players are getting better. It is probably a combination of both.

See also the Sumo Game scoring history.

Edit: speling eror.

Edited December 14, 2004 by Exil

[Jakusotsu]

@Kashunowaka: Looking at the %-column, I don't really see a significant trend - looks to be pretty stable within the whole timeframe. (Judging by looking at the graph only - I didn't run any tests.)

The graph very much follows the performance of the favourites, and that is Asashoryu since Hatsu 2003 (as You noted). Wait for some more bad bashos for him (like Aki'04) and You'll see where Your trend goes...

[Kashunowaka]

@Kashunowaka: Looking at the %-column, I don't really see a significant trend - looks to be pretty stable within the whole timeframe. (Judging by looking at the graph only - I didn't run any tests.)

What graph? :-)

This is a graph:

<pre>

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58 x

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57 x

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56 x

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54

03 05 07 09 11 01 03 05 07 09 11 01 03 05 07 09 11

2002 2003 2004

</pre>

I see a trend ... You don't? (Enjoying a beer...)

The graph very much follows the performance of the favourites, and that is Asashoryu since Hatsu 2003 (as You noted). Wait for some more bad bashos for him (like Aki'04) and You'll see where Your trend goes...

Yes, the graph very much follows the performance of the favourites. Wasn't that what I said? I never said anything about the future though.

Side not: although Asashoryu has been dominant lately, his performance alone is not enough to explain why Sekitoto scores are rising. He still only fights once a day.

Edited December 14, 2004 by Exil

[Jakusotsu]

I see a trend ... You don't? (Applauding...)

Thanks for Your efforts, but still, no I don't. You have to look at the whole and not just at those neatly aligned points in the middle. Even when you discard the two highest and two lowest, it's still an up-down-up at its best.

Side note: although Asashoryu has been dominant lately, his performance alone is not enough to explain why Sekitoto scores are rising. He still only fights once a day.

That's right, I admit. It's not the Yokozuna alone, it's a matter of all rikishi behaving like the "should". The recent days are a good example.

[Kashunowaka]

I see a trend ... You don't? (Applauding...)

Thanks for Your efforts, but still, no I don't. You have to look at the whole and not just at those neatly aligned points in the middle. Even when you discard the two highest and two lowest, it's still an up-down-up at its best.

Then I think we will just have to agree to disagree. B-)

[Zenjimoto]

I am deeply moved by this discussion and Kashunowaka's brilliance of producing these stats... is there ANYTHING you CAN'T do, Jonas? (Applauding...) B-) :-D

Cheers!

Zenjimoto

[Asashosakari]

Still, let's not lose track of the fact that even the largest difference between those per-basho averages is only 4.7 percentage points, which translates into only about 1.5 points of difference per day.

I tend to agree with Kashu-san that there's an upward trend of late. But single basho really can't be used to determine whether the game has become much harder, so let's take a 6-basho trend line instead. (Applauding...) That trend line dips to its lowest after Aki 2003 with 55.9%. Compared to that, even the extremely high-scoring Nagoya 2004 (at 59.1%) meant a difference in average daily score of only about 1 point due to improved player performance.

In the end, the averages perhaps don't tell us the whole story, because ST is scored on the median. I suppose it's possible that the median has risen more than the average...

Edited November 23, 2004 by Asashosakari