Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Aki 2025

[Asashosakari]

Welcome to LKS Aki 2025! Like last basho, let's hope for many kachikoshi so that the size of the ballot eventually returns to more attractive levels...

1. Onosato        14* [score?]
2. Aonishiki      11* [score?]
3. Kusano          8*
4. Hakuoho         7
5. Mita            6*
6. Gonoumi         5
7. Kirishima       4  [score?]
8. Fujinokawa      4
9. Kyokukaiyu      4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

• For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
• For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 9 guys up there and the further 8 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak (6 'veterans' + 2 rikishi from maezumo - true rookie Wakaikazuchi and banzuke-gai returnee Arise), please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 17. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 8 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Onosato.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi 2pm JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

1. Onosato W-L
2. Aonishiki W-L
3. Kusano KKMK
4. Hakuoho KKMK
5. Mita KKMK
6. Gonoumi KKMK
7. Kirishima W-L
8. Fujinokawa KKMK
9. Kyokukaiyu KKMK

TB xx

-----

Good luck!

[ryafuji]

1. Onosato 13-2
2. Aonishiki 8-7
3. Kusano KK
4. Hakuoho MK
5. Mita KK
6. Gonoumi MK
7. Kirishima 9-6
8. Fujinokawa KK
9. Kyokukaiyu MK

TB 10

[Fashiritētā]

1. Onosato 14-1
2. Aonishiki 10-5
3. Kusano KK
4. Hakuoho KK
5. Mita KK
6. Gonoumi MK
7. Kirishima 10-5
8. Fujinokawa MK
9. Kyokukaiyu KK

TB 10

[Ryoshishokunin]

1. 11
2. 9
3. KK
4. KK
5. KK
6. KK
7. 8
8. KK
9. KK
   (All KK ballot?  Huh.)

TB: 11

 

[Yarimotsu]

1. Onosato 11-4
2. Aonishiki 11-4
3. Kusano KK
4. Hakuoho MK
5. Mita KK
6. Gonoumi MK
7. Kirishima 7-8
8. Fujinokawa KK
9. Kyokukaiyu KK

TB 9

[Oskanohana]

1. Onosato 12-3
2. Aonishiki 10-5
3. Kusano KK
4. Hakuoho MK
5. Mita KK
6. Gonoumi KK
7. Kirishima 9-6
8. Fujinokawa MK
9. Kyokukaiyu KK

TB 11

[Jejima]

1. Onosato 8-7
2. Aonishiki 8-7
3. Kusano KK
4. Hakuoho KK
5. Mita KK
6. Gonoumi KK
7. Kirishima 8-7
8. Fujinokawa KK
9. Kyokukaiyu KK

TB 16

[Profomisakari]

1. Onosato         12
2. Aonishiki       11
3. Kusano           KK
4. Hakuoho        KK
5. Mita                KK
6. Gonoumi        MK
7. Kirishima       9
8. Fujinokawa    KK
9. Kyokukaiyu    KK

TB: 12

[Holleshoryu]

1. Onosato 13-2

2. Aonishiki 9-6

3. Kusano KK

4. Hakuoho KK

5. Mita KK

6. Gonoumi KK

7. Kirishima 8-7

8. Fujinokawa KK

9. Kyokukaiyu KK

 

TB 12

 

 

[Sakura]

1. Onosato 12-3
2. Aonishiki 10-5
3. Kusano KK
4. Hakuoho MK
5. Mita KK
6. Gonoumi KK
7. Kirishima 9-6
8. Fujinokawa KK
9. Kyokukaiyu KK

TB 12

[Athenayama]

1. Onosato 11-4
2. Aonishiki 10-5
3. Kusano KK
4. Hakuoho KK
5. Mita KK
6. Gonoumi MK
7. Kirishima 8-7
8. Fujinokawa KK
9. Kyokukaiyu KK

TB 12

[Bunbukuchagama]

1. Onosato 12-3
2. Aonishiki 10-5
3. Kusano KK
4. Hakuoho MK
5. Mita KK
6. Gonoumi KK
7. Kirishima 8-7
8. Fujinokawa KK
9. Kyokukaiyu KK

TB 13

[WAKATAKE]

1. Onosato 11-4
2. Aonishiki MK
3. Kusano KK
4. Hakuoho MK
5. Mita KK
6. Gonoumi KK
7. Kirishima 9-6
8. Fujinokawa MK
9. Kyokukaiyu KK

TB 9

[Xiongmao]

1. Onosato 12-3
2. Aonishiki 10-5
3. Kusano KK
4. Hakuoho MK
5. Mita KK
6. Gonoumi KK
7. Kirishima 7-8
8. Fujinokawa KK
9. Kyokukaiyu KK

TB 9

Pandaazuma

[Tetsuarashi]

1. Onosato 13-2
2. Aonishiki 10-5
3. Kusano KK
4. Hakuoho MK
5. Mita KK
6. Gonoumi KK
7. Kirishima 8-7
8. Fujinokawa MK
9. Kyokukaiyu KK

TB 11

[chishafuwaku]

1. Onosato                 13
2. Aonishiki                  9
3. Kusano                             KK
4. Hakuoho                          KK
5. Mita                                  KK
6. Gonoumi                          KK
7. Kirishima                 8
8. Fujinokawa                      KK
9. Kyokukaiyu                      KK

TB 10

[Asashosakari]

13 Onosato
9 Aonishiki
+ Kusano
- Hakuoho
+ Mita
- Gonoumi
8 Kirishima
+ Fujinokawa
+ Kyokukaiyu

TB 9

[Hakuryuho]

Missed it 

[Asashosakari]

Results! The usual belated welcome to the Aki 2025 edition of LKS, featuring 16 players for the second straight time.

Player	Onosato		Aonishi		Kusano	Hakuo	Mita	Gono	Kirishi		Fujino	Kyoku	TB	Cons
ryafuji	+	13-2	-	8-7	+	-	+	-	+	9-6	+	-	10	1.62
Fashiritētā	+	14-1	+	10-5	+	+	+	-	+	10-5	-	+	10	1.50
Ryoshishokunin	-	11-4	-	9-6	+	+	+	+	-	8-7	+	+	11	1.06
Yarimotsu	-	11-4	+	11-4	+	-	+	-	-	MK	+	+	9	1.06
Oskanohana	-	12-3	+	10-5	+	-	+	+	+	9-6	-	+	11	1.27
Jejima	-	8-7	-	8-7	+	+	+	+	-	8-7	+	+	16	1.06
Profomisakari	-	12-3	+	11-4	+	+	+	-	+	9-6	+	+	12	1.22
Holleshoryu	+	13-2	-	9-6	+	+	+	+	-	8-7	+	+	12	1.17
Sakura	-	12-3	+	10-5	+	-	+	+	+	9-6	+	+	12	1.06
Athenayama	-	11-4	+	10-5	+	+	+	-	-	8-7	+	+	12	1.12
Bunbukuchagama	-	12-3	+	10-5	+	-	+	+	-	8-7	+	+	13	0.93
WAKATAKE	-	11-4	-	MK	+	-	+	+	+	9-6	-	+	9	1.32
Pandaazuma	-	12-3	+	10-5	+	-	+	+	-	MK	+	+	9	0.93
Tetsuarashi	+	13-2	+	10-5	+	-	+	+	-	8-7	-	+	11	1.27
chishafuwaku	+	13-2	-	9-6	+	+	+	+	-	8-7	+	+	10	1.17
Asashosakari	+	13-2	-	9-6	+	-	+	-	-	8-7	+	+	9	1.22
	6:10		9:7		16:0	7:9	16:0	10:6	6:10		12:4	15:1
Results	+		+		+	+	+	+	- (MK)		-	-

Ugh, just seven slots in play thanks to everybody putting their trust in Kusano and Mita's KK prowess, and even Kyokukaiyu's slot found only one skeptic.

It's not the majority prediction, but sufficiently many players entered 13-2 or better for it to become Onosato's target record for Aki basho, the highest it has ever been since he arrived in sanyaku. Shin-sanyaku Aonishiki isn't quite there yet, but more than half of us expected him to finish at least 10-5, while former ozeki Kirishima only made it to a 9-6 target, and with under 50% support for it.

There are no real outlier selections this time around, and every pair of players shares at least four picks. At the upper end we have no less than three pairs that have entirely identical (converted) selections, namely Bunbukuchagama/Pandaazuma, chishafuwaku/Holleshoryu, and Jejima/Ryoshishokunin - thankfully all with different tie-breaker choices. The average amount of agreement is unsurprisingly very high this time, coming out to 66% or 5.9 slots.

The most common lineup is the one shared by Bunbukuchagama and Pandaazuma who have voted along with the majority on all nine slots, so it doesn't get more common than that. Many other entries also are near the minimum Cons score, indicating relatively high agreement with the majority - leaving aside the two unanimous slots, almost everybody has at least four favoured picks out of seven. The two notable exceptions are ryafuji and Fashiritētā, each with only two such picks; ryafuji clocked in with the overall most unusual lineup thanks to his MK choice for Kyokukaiyu.

The TB picks aren't as all over the place as they were last basho, but there's still not much agreement despite the small range. All values from 9 to 12 were chosen at least three times each, plus single entries for 13 and 16.

Edited November 2 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari]

Day 9

We're getting things started with a bunch of kachikoshi, at least on the ballot. Onosato (not yet at his target) and Mita started the basho with 8-1 records, while Gonoumi is 4-1 in makushita. Everybody has the Mita KK, of course, but Gonoumi's was a more contested issue, and I suspect even many of his supporters didn't expect him to get it quite this early.

The first two of our eight off-ballot hopefuls have already decided their fates as well - Isegahama youngster Yumenofuji has picked up his fifth straight kachikoshi to join the game proper for Kyushu, but heavyweight veteran Hakuomaru finds himself at an early MK, putting an end to his recent progress up the rankings.

The first standings:

Day 9: 2/9 Decisions, TB 4-16
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	chishafuwaku	2	10
2	Oskanohana	2	11
2	Pandaazuma	2	9
2	Ryoshishokunin	2	11
2	Tetsuarashi	2	11
2	WAKATAKE	2	9
7	Holleshoryu	2	12
7	Sakura	2	12
9	Bunbukuchagama	2	13
10	Jejima	2	16
11	Fashiritētā	1	10
11	ryafuji	1	10
13	Asashosakari	1	9
13	Yarimotsu	1	9
15	Athenayama	1	12
15	Profomisakari	1	12

 

[Asashosakari]

Day 10

No results with scoring or ballot implications, but komusubi Aonishiki is already kachikoshi after this day.

Day 11

And boom, makekoshi for Kyokukaiyu against the expectations of everyone not named ryafuji.

Results away from the ballot went one and one again, with semi-prospect Daikisho continuing a successful return from injury and Miyagino/Isegahama teenager Senshoho now MK.

No perfect scores anymore:

Day 11: 3/9 Decisions, TB 6-14
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	chishafuwaku	2	10
1	ryafuji	2	10
3	Oskanohana	2	11
3	Pandaazuma	2	9
3	Ryoshishokunin	2	11
3	Tetsuarashi	2	11
3	WAKATAKE	2	9
8	Holleshoryu	2	12
8	Sakura	2	12
10	Bunbukuchagama	2	13
11	Jejima	2	16
12	Fashiritētā	1	10
13	Asashosakari	1	9
13	Yarimotsu	1	9
15	Athenayama	1	12
15	Profomisakari	1	12

 

[Asashosakari]

Day 12

Skepticism towards Kirishima turned out to be warranted as he picked up his seventh loss on Day 12, ending his shot at a 9-6 or better record.

Still nearly half the field is part of the leading group:

Day 12: 4/9 Decisions, TB 6-14
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	chishafuwaku	3	10
2	Pandaazuma	3	9
2	Ryoshishokunin	3	11
2	Tetsuarashi	3	11
5	Holleshoryu	3	12
6	Bunbukuchagama	3	13
7	Jejima	3	16
8	ryafuji	2	10
9	Asashosakari	2	9
9	Oskanohana	2	11
9	WAKATAKE	2	9
9	Yarimotsu	2	9
13	Athenayama	2	12
13	Sakura	2	12
15	Fashiritētā	1	10
16	Profomisakari	1	12

 

[Asashosakari]

Five slots remain, but just four are in play with Kusano's all-KK slate. Everybody except Yarimotsu, Sakura and the two one-pointers can still win the yusho, although several players have fairly obscure routes. Notably, WAKATAKE has a single option to win outright but will not even tie for the lead in any other scenario, and Jejima needs every remaining rikishi to finish kachikoshi (including the off-ballot guys). Tetsuarashi is the only other player besides WAKATAKE who might finish with an outright victory, possibly even by two points which would be rather absurd with such a short ballot.

Also quite absurd: Thanks to the three pairs of identical entries all possible extra tie-breakers (after the "normal" ones TB hit and bracket hits) can become relevant this time - between Jejima and Ryoshishokunin it might be their proximity to the correct TB, between Bunbukuchagama and Pandaazuma their exact sanyaku predictions (specifically the Kirishima ones, as they picked the same for Onosato and Aonishiki), and between chishafuwaku and Holleshoryu even the date of entry.

[Asashosakari]

Day 13

Another day with a 1-1 outcome outside the ballot: Arise gets the fifth kachikoshi in his return from falling all the way off the banzuke, while young prospect Wakaikazuchi's debut KK streak has been snapped. That was it for Jejima's yusho hopes.

The day progressed into two scoring results, also with one positive and one negative. Fujinokawa hit the wall in the middle of the maegashira ranks for now, which was bad news for a couple of two-point players who had predicted otherwise and really needed that result to come in: Asashosakari and ryafuji were eliminated from the race. Later in the day komusubi Aonishiki secured his target-clinching 10th win. That knocked out another bunch of contenders, namely chishafuwaku, Holleshoryu, Ryoshishokunin and WAKATAKE.

All in all only three players picked up both points today. They had 3, 2 and 1 point before the day, respectively, so there is a sole leader now:

Day 13: 6/9 Decisions, TB 7-12
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Tetsuarashi	5	11
2	Pandaazuma	4	9
3	Oskanohana	4	11
4	Bunbukuchagama	4	13
5	chishafuwaku	3	10
5	Fashiritētā	3	10
5	WAKATAKE	3	9
5	Yarimotsu	3	9
9	Ryoshishokunin	3	11
10	Athenayama	3	12
10	Holleshoryu	3	12
10	Sakura	3	12
13	Jejima	3	16
14	Asashosakari	2	9
14	ryafuji	2	10
16	Profomisakari	2	12

The yusho race is down to the top 4 plus Athenayama. Tetsuarashi is already guaranteed at least a tie for the leading final score and will win outright if Onosato gets to 13 wins from his current 12-1 record (but will definitely not win if he doesn't). Onosato finishing 12-3 would produce a tie between either four or seven players depending on Hakuoho's outcome (currently 7-6).

[Asashosakari]

Day 14

The last two off-ballot results were finalized, and neither ex-sekitori Yago nor 25-year-old makushita debutant Harunishiki made it to a fifth straight kachikoshi, so we're ending this tournament with three rikishi set to join the next ballot via 5 KK. That was the end of Oskanohana's yusho chances as he needed to hit TB 11 and the maximum possible was only 10 at this point.

Next up was sekiwake Kirishima's attempt to avoid makekoshi - which he did not, so he hasn't only missed his 9-6 target record but is dropping off the ballot for Kyushu altogether. Game over for Bunbukuchagama as well, who would have needed a Kirishima 8-7. Three contenders left standing...

...but I'm creating a bit of a fake chronology here, as the most important result of the day was actually confirmed first rather than last: Ozeki Kotozakura announced his withdrawal from the tournament and thus his opponent Onosato's 13th win was already a certainty before any of the other guys had fought. That means the LKS yusho winner is Tetsuarashi! Congrats, what a debut in the game!

Day 14: 7/9 Decisions, TB 7-9
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Tetsuarashi	6	11
2	Pandaazuma	4	9
3	Bunbukuchagama	4	13
3	chishafuwaku	4	10
3	Fashiritētā	4	10
3	Holleshoryu	4	12
3	Oskanohana	4	11
8	Asashosakari	3	9
8	WAKATAKE	3	9
8	Yarimotsu	3	9
11	Athenayama	3	12
11	Jejima	3	16
11	ryafuji	3	10
11	Ryoshishokunin	3	11
11	Sakura	3	12
16	Profomisakari	2	12

Senshuraku will decide who takes the jun-yusho - three of the 4-pointers have Hakuoho for KK, the other three for MK. None of them can hit the TB, so we'll definitely have three runners-up. (Pandaazuma is still in TB range, but he needs Hakuoho to lose, and then it's no longer possible.)