Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Nagoya 2025

[Akinomaki]

NikkanSp in the predicted joi banzuke has Aonishiki to sekiwake and Tamawashi to komusubi. Kotoshoho only to m5.

o

[Tetsuarashi]

37 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

NikkanSp in the predicted joi banzuke has Aonishiki to sekiwake and Tamawashi to komusubi. Kotoshoho only to m5.

o

how predictive has this been?

[Koorifuu]

6 hours ago, Gurowake said:

So this does appear to be a decent test of the Juryo-Makushita exchange hypothesis.  It makes little sense to give a Juryo rikishi an exchange bout against someone who clearly would replace him if the Makushita rikishi won, only to replace the Juryo rikishi with someone else instead after he wins.  That is, I'm seeing Nishinoryu vs. Daiamami for the last slot by the numbers of the hypothesis going for Nishinoryu, but it would be surprising to me if that exchange actually took place for the above reason.

This seems like a similar situation to Miyanokaze v Kyokukaiyu last time round... with the difference that Daiamami is in a better position than Miyanokaze was, and the latter was saved regardless. Daiamami should be safe unless the committee decides they made a clear mistake last time.

 

EDIT: Forget that. Faulty memory had me thinking Miyanokaze had been J14 last time.

Edited July 27, 2025 by Koorifuu

[Reonito]

14 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

3-12 for Shimanoumi at j12 - will Akiseyama have to pack his things and move on or will the untouchable count on a quick return and try to get enough sekitori basho to reestablish Izutsu-beya

He's not even a lock to be ranked in the promotion zone at Aki, though with his banzuke luck...

[Reonito]

6 hours ago, Gurowake said:

So this does appear to be a decent test of the Juryo-Makushita exchange hypothesis.  It makes little sense to give a Juryo rikishi an exchange bout against someone who clearly would replace him if the Makushita rikishi won, only to replace the Juryo rikishi with someone else instead after he wins.  That is, I'm seeing Nishinoryu vs. Daiamami for the last slot by the numbers of the hypothesis going for Nishinoryu, but it would be surprising to me if that exchange actually took place for the above reason.  Still, it's worth repeating that there's a disconnect between the torikumi and banzuke preparation, and the former may have been done by people not counting properly.  Or maybe I'm just still not counting properly...

This is correct. Nishinoryu computes to Ms2e, Daiamami computes to Ms2w, but based on the vibes, I also don't see them making the exchange. If they do, they take the numbers very seriously as everything qualitative argues against it: Daiamami's record isn't a "must demote", 5-2 at Ms5e isn't enough for promotion more often than not, including just last basho, and Daiamami won what sure looked like a straight exchange bout.

[Reonito]

6 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I don't think they promote Hitoshi but not Daiseizan.  Same record at the same rank they usually do the same thing with unless there's no other choice.

I got one for you. No good way to do a single query, I took a few shots, probably something more systematic is doable.

[Reonito]

16 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

This seems like a similar situation to Miyanokaze v Kyokukaiyu last time round... with the difference that Daiamami is in a better position than Miyanokaze was, and the latter was saved regardless. Daiamami should be safe unless the committee decides they made a clear mistake last time.

Daiamami is in a worse position—6-9 at J13w vs J13e. That's what makes this interesting: Miyanokaze v Kyokukaiyu was a tie by the numbers, while here Nishinoryu is half a rank ahead.

[Reonito]

Makushita promotion queue: 3e Asahakuryu (7-0), 2e Ishizaki (6-1), 1e Kyokukaiyu (5-2), 1w Asanoyama (5-2), 5e Nishinoryu (5-2).

Juryo demotion queue: 10w Nabatame (0-0-15), 10e Mitoryu (0-5-10), 12e Shimanoumi (3-12), 12w Otsuji (4-11),  13w Daiamami (6-9).

As extensively discussed above, we have 4 straightforward exchanges and one interesting edge case.

[Reonito]

Makuuchi demotion queue: Hidenoumi, Kayo, Chiyoshoma, Endo, Kotoeiho, Shishi.

Juryo promotion queue: Shonannoumi, Tomokaze, Nishikigi, Ryuden, Hitoshi, Daiseizan.

Again, see discussion up-thread. Hitoshi vs. Kotoeiho is a subject of debate, while Daiseizan over Shishi seems unlikely.

[Reonito]

BTW Aonishiki to K1w would be the lowest for an 11+ win M1e in the six-basho era.

[Asashosakari]

Juryo down vs makushita up in numbers after Daiamami defeated Kitanowaka and both Shiden and Miyanokaze saved themselves:

      Down Queue         Rk Diff     W-L Diff         Up Queue
Nabatame    J10w  0-0-15   6.5   <  15+7 = 22   Asahakuryu  Ms3e  7-0
Mitoryu     J10e  0-5-10   6.0   <  15+5 = 20   Ishizaki    Ms2e  6-1
Shimanoumi  J12e  3-12     3.0   <   9+3 = 12   Kyokukaiyu  Ms1e  5-2
Otsuji      J12w  4-11     3.0   <   7+3 = 10   Asanoyama   Ms1w  5-2
Daiamami    J13w  6-9      5.5   <   3+3 =  6   Nishinoryu  Ms5e  5-2
(none)                                          Kitanowaka  Ms3w  4-3
(none)                                          Takakento   Ms5w  4-3

[Reonito]

4 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

NikkanSp in the predicted joi banzuke has Aonishiki to sekiwake and Tamawashi to komusubi. Kotoshoho only to m5.

They have Aonishiki to sekiwake but Takayasu staying at komusubi? 

[Reonito]

Aki Makushita top 10:

Dropping from juryo: Otsuji, Shimanoumi (?)

3-4: Mudoho

4-3: Kitanowaka, Takakento, Wakanosho, Goshima (?), Toseiryu (?)

5-2: Nishinoryu (or Daiamami if they make the exchange), Kamito

6-1: Nagamura

That's 8 who should definitely be fighting it out for promotion, and then Shimanoumi and Goshima I'm guessing?

[Oskanohana]

Prev.Rank	Score	East	Rank	West	Score	Prev.Rank
Ms5e	5-2	Nishinoryu	Ms1	Kitanowaka	4-3	Ms3w
Ms5w	4-3	Takakento	Ms2	Otsuji	4-11	J12w
Ms14w	6-1	Nagamura	Ms3	Shimanoumi	3-12	J12e
Ms6w	4-3	Wakanosho	Ms4	Kamito	5-2	Ms10w
Ms2w	3-4	Mudoho	Ms5	Goshima	4-3	Ms9e
Ms10e	4-3	Toseiryu	Ms6	Fukuzaki	5-2	Ms15w
Ms11e	4-3	Kazuto	Ms7	Yoshii	5-2	Ms18e
J10e	0-5-10	Mitoryu	Ms8	Nabatame	0-0-15	J10w
Ms14e	4-3	Matsui	Ms9	Shohoryu	6-1	Ms28w
Ms4e	3-5	Satorufuji	Ms10	Inami	3-4	Ms6e
Ms21e	5-2	Seihakuho	Ms11	Narutaki	5-2	Ms21w
Ms4w	2-5	Dewanoryu	Ms12	Chiyomaru	4-3	Ms16w
Ms17e	4-3	Tenshoho	Ms13	Tochimusashi	3-4	Ms8w
Ms9w	3-4	Akua	Ms14	Kotokenryu	4-3	Ms20w
Ms39w	6-1	Awanokuni	Ms15	Yago	6-1	Ms40w

This would be my guess for GTB Makushita jo'i edition. So I agree with @Reonito on the top 10. Maybe he-who-can-be-named Toseiryu has an outside chance if they want to boot Mudoho. I wouldn't bet on it.

I don't know if they'll separate the kyujo pair of Mitoryu and Nabatame and give an appearance bonus to Mitoryu as they do sometimes in the lower divisions. Maybe they demote him 10 ranks to Ms6 and Nabatame the usual 12 to Ms8.

Then, the Satorofuji 8 bouts issue. I don't want to put him behind Inami, as they won the same bouts, and also the 2-5's in the top-10 have been treated inconsistently lately methinks. I slotted a couple fellas between him and rank-partner Dewanoryu.

The top 30 has Ms27w Gyotoku (5-2) as a perfectly valid option, maybe as high as Ms14 even, but I can't resist putting there the true runner-up from this basho, Yago. Next best option should be Ms11e Oshoryu(3-4), but he seems clearly out of contention.

Edited July 28, 2025 by Oskanohana

[Gurowake]

6 hours ago, Reonito said:

I got one for you. No good way to do a single query, I took a few shots, probably something more systematic is doable.

1978?  Ancient history.  Regardless, that fits into a "did they have any other choice?" consideration.  In what world do they not promote a 10-5 J5 for a 6-9 at the second lowest spot?  Yes, neither are that far from where we're at now, but those few spots make all the difference in terms of what can be seen as acceptable outcomes.  And if you wanted to go the other direction, who do they overdemote to promote J5w?  There's no obvious candidate that lands in the couple last spots by the numbers.

[Bunbukuchagama]

13 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I don't think they promote Hitoshi but not Daiseizan.  Same record at the same rank they usually do the same thing with unless there's no other choice. 

Not really, it's a bit of an urban legend IMO. They have broken such pairs without hesitation in the past. 

You have to draw the line somewhere.

[Reonito]

13 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

1978?  Ancient history.  Regardless, that fits into a "did they have any other choice?" consideration.  In what world do they not promote a 10-5 J5 for a 6-9 at the second lowest spot?  Yes, neither are that far from where we're at now, but those few spots make all the difference in terms of what can be seen as acceptable outcomes.  And if you wanted to go the other direction, who do they overdemote to promote J5w?  There's no obvious candidate that lands in the couple last spots by the numbers.

Agree on all counts, but it's the best I could do ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited July 28, 2025 by Reonito

[Bunbukuchagama]

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

They have Aonishiki to sekiwake but Takayasu staying at komusubi? 

I need to see their GTB rank. 

[Steve]

I dont think 11-4 is enough to open up a new sekiwake slot for aonishiki. I would think komosubi more likely. 

[Akinomaki]

4 hours ago, Reonito said:

They have Aonishiki to sekiwake but Takayasu staying at komusubi? 

Takayasu as komusubi on loan from Aonishiki, with this correct over 2 basho 

[Faustonowaka]

7 hours ago, Reonito said:

They have Aonishiki to sekiwake but Takayasu staying at komusubi? 

Takayasu is doomed to stay at Komusubi forever

[hypnoowl]

7 hours ago, Oskanohana said:

Then, the Satorofuji 8 bouts issue. I don't want to put him behind Inami, as they won the same bouts, and also the 2-5's in the top-10 have been treated inconsistently lately methinks. I slotted a couple fellas between him and rank-partner Dewanoryu.

 

I took a fascinating dive into the pool of 8-bout records. First, they only happen for makushita joy and jonokuchi and the difference in treatment is very obvious. For jonokuchi it looks like the same win amount records are treated equally. They stopped offering an eighth bout for 3-4 makushita after Haru 1972, but the 4-4's had also been treated equally with juryo promotions split 1-1 between higher ranked 4-4 and lower ranked 4-3 (funnily enough Aobayama was both the losing 4-4 and the losing 4-3). The 3-5's, on the other hand, are definitely treated a lot better than 2-5's, but still slightly or sometimes even considerably worse than 3-4's, with no Ms1 3-5 ever surviving in the promotion zone while 3-4 Ms1's and even Ms2's do so routinely.

[Yamanashi]

15 hours ago, Reonito said:

They have Aonishiki to sekiwake but Takayasu staying at komusubi? 

They may have to get their pry bars and open up a slot or two.

[Gurowake]

10 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Takayasu as komusubi on loan from Aonishiki, with this correct over 2 basho 

I mean, yeah, if they want to retroactively make Takayasu a maegashira and Aonishiki a Komusubi as of the basho that just finished, their banzuke would be likely be what you'd get for Aki.  Aonishiki is likely to not get to Sekiwake for Aki, but would have (assuming the same result) had he been promoted for Nagoya like everyone was expecting.

[Andreas21]

There are quite a few rather unpredictable issues with respect to the next Makuuchi Banzuke.

As discussed above, Makuuchi / Juryo exchanges are not clear. Hitoshi vs. Kotoeiho is like 50:50. Kotoeiho is almost a forced demotion, while Hitoshi is barely promotable. Daiseizan vs. Shishi is clearer as Shishi is not really demotable, especially when he can go to the M18 rank. In fact, also Ryuden is not a strong promotion case, hoever, Endo is a strong demotion.

Next area are the lower Sanyaku ranks. While there is a straightforward solution with two S and two K possible with quite a bit of underpromotions, there are open questions. Will Aonishiki leapfrog Takayasu and/or Komusubi rank? Will there be a fifth lower Sanyaku rank? Tamawashi is worthy to take it, even Abi the sixth. Will they keep on the sticky S1e rank on Kachikoshi, or will WTK jump over?

Next area is, how far those who leave Sanyaku ranks will fall down. 0-win Sekiwake can go to M10, 3-win Komusubi may go to M7, but this is really guesswork.

Next area is, how far up will Juryo promotees go up. Kusano's promotion last basho was a clear sign - there are strong upper limits there. Shonannoumi is the only one with aspirations here. However, Shishi, but also Tobizaru und Asakoryu may give reason for some overpromotion of the promotees.

After that, there are some congestion areas in M3/M4, M10/M11, M14/M15 and a sparse area around M12/M13.

Looks quite messy!