Promotion/Demotion Discussion

[Sakura]

Ignoring the yusho races, which are discussed elsewhere.

Sanyaku

It has not been a good basho for the Sanyaku. Asanoyama was out of his first tournament back in Sanyaku with yet another jungyo injury. Terunofuji was in no shape to compete but did and lost on Day 1 before withdrawing. Takakeisho did likewise and will be kadoban next basho. Kirishima, who was kadoban is still very injured and left the tournament and will be demoted to Sekiwake. Finally, Wakamotoharu injured his toe during the basho and had to sit out for a few days.

At the moment Wakamotoharu and Asanoyama will be leaving Sanyaku. Everyone else will stay. Kirishima will take one of the Sekiwake slots, so unless Onosato can force another slot, there will only be one open position. Daieisho is in pole position for that slot.

Result	East	Rank	West	Result
0-2-10	Terunofuji	Y
8-4	Hoshoryu	O	Kotozakura	9-3
0-2-10	Takakeisho	O	Kirishima	1-6-5 (x)
(x) 3-6-3	Wakamotoharu	S	Abi	8-4
(x) 0-0-12	Asanoyama	K	Onosato	9-3
5-7	Atamifuji	M1	Daieisho	8-4
6-6	Hiradoumi	M2	Gonoyama	5-7
6-1-5	Takayasu	M3
		M4	Ura	6-6
5-7	Onosho	M5	Meisei	8-4
		M6
		M7	Mitakeumi	8-4
		M8	Kotoshoho	8-4
		M9
9-3	Shonannoumi	M10

Edited May 24, 2024 by Sakura
grammar

[Sakura]

Makuuchi - Juryo

(x) 0-0-12	Takerufuji	M6
		M11
		M12	Nishikifuji	4-8 (2)
(x) 2-9-1	Mitoryu	M13
		M14
(2) 5-7	Tokihayate	M15	Roga	5-7 (2)
(x) 2-10	Tomokaze	M16
(x) 3-9	Tsurugisho	M17

Juryo Banzuke

Result	East	Rank	West	Result
(3) 5-7	Daiamami	J1
(3) 6-6	Bushozan	J2
(o) 11-1	Endo	J3	Chiyoshoma	9-3 (o)
(~) 6-6	Tohakuryu	J4
(2) 8-4	Kagayaki	J5
		J6	Wakatakakage	11-1 (o)
		J7
(3) 11-1	Onokatsu	J12

 

Absent yusho winner Takerufuji should be the first to drop alongside injured Mitoryu, injured but still competing Tsurugisho and bad Tomokaze. A few other rikishi need two more wins, but that will be contingent on Juryo results.

On that front, we have three already with promotable records - Endo, Chiyoshoma and Wakatakakage. Of those three, Endo should be back but we'll have to wait and see how things shake out. 

[Asashosakari]

It must be said that while I still don't think it's going to happen, things have gone as well as they possibly could to make Takerufuji's survival at least slightly feasible, despite their habit of not being lenient to full kyujo. The three other guys are all but certain to go down before him, and we could well see the fourth-best promotion candidate score only be something like J5e 9-6 for Kagayaki.

[Reonito]

Juryo <-> Makushita

Juryo demotion queue: 13w Chiyomaru (3-9), 13e Oshoumi (3-9), 14w Kazekeno (6-6), 12w Tsushimanada (5-7), 8w Hakuoho (3-5-4), 14e Tochitaikai (7-5). The guys in bold will need 3 wins and a miracle to save them; the others need 2 wins by the numbers (but one could be enough), except for Tochitaikai, who needs one and could get away with zero. I'm sure it's been mentioned elsewhere, but Hakuoho is back to fight for his sekitori status, starting with Hakuyozan tomorrow.

Makushita promotion queue: 1w Kayo (5-1), 1e Akua (3-3) with a win, 11e Fujiseiun (6-0) with a win, 2w Nabatame (4-2), 3e Kiryuko (4-2), 3w Daiseizan (3-3) with a win, 4e Kitaharima (3-3) with a win, 4w Kotokuzan (4-3).

A lot to sort out here. We only have two obvious openings, which could get sticky if Akua and Fujiseiun both win to add near-automatic promotion claims to Kayo's. Daiseizan et al. can finish no higher than 4th in the promotion queue, which probably means they're out of luck even with kachi-koshi. Other than the Fujiseiun-Kusano yusho decider, there is no relevant Day 13 action in Makushita, so Day 12 results in Juryo will guide the scheduling for the final weekend. If they are not involved in potential exchange bouts, Akua and Kitaharima haven't met, and neither have Nabatame and Kiryuko.

Edited May 24, 2024 by Reonito

[Sumo Spiffy]

Granted, this seems unlikely, but if Roga finishes 5-10 and things played out so there were exactly four demotions, they would have to save Takeru and send Roga down, right? It seems impossible that they would send Takeru to juryo and only demote Roga 1.5 ranks (or two, if we end up with eight sanyaku and thus a M17W).

[Yarimotsu]

3 hours ago, Sakura said:

injured but still competing Tsurugisho and bad Tomokaze

I think we can safely chuck both of them in the "permanently crippled" camp

[Sumo Spiffy]

Just now, Yarimotsu said:

I think we can safely chuck both of them in the "permanently crippled" camp

Tomokaze, yeah. Tsurugisho, hopefully not. But if he's fighting now, it seems unlikely he'll take the time to heal his knee and come back.

[Bunbukuchagama]

3 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

It seems impossible that they would send Takeru to juryo and only demote Roga 1.5 ranks (or two, if we end up with eight sanyaku and thus a M17W).

It would be a choice between 2 very rare decisions. And I don't know which of them seems more impossible.

[Reonito]

22 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

It would be a choice between 2 very rare decisions. And I don't know which of them seems more impossible.

if they feel that both have to go down, they can pull up the next-best juryo kk, even if it's not normally a promotable record

[Bunbukuchagama]

2 minutes ago, Reonito said:

if they feel that both have to go down, they can pull up the next-best juryo kk, even if it's not normally a promotable record

How far can they stretch it? 8-7 Bushozan? 9-6 Kagayaki?

[Reonito]

5 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

How far can they stretch it? 8-7 Bushozan? 9-6 Kagayaki?

pretty far

[Tigerboy1966]

There looks likely to be some hard-luck heartbreak at the top of makushita, with more promotable records than spaces available. On the other hand it does give the committee an opportunity to stage some cracking "exchange" bouts over the last 2 days.

[Tigerboy1966]

4 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

How far can they stretch it? 8-7 Bushozan? 9-6 Kagayaki?

13-2 Onokatsu?

[Sakura]

 

Result	East	Rank	West	Result
0-2-11	Terunofuji	Y
9-4	Hoshoryu	O	Kotozakura	10-3
0-2-11	Takakeisho	O	Kirishima	1-6-6 (x)
(x) 4-6-3	Wakamotoharu	S	Abi	9-4
(x) 0-0-13	Asanoyama	K	Onosato	10-3
6-7	Atamifuji	M1	Daieisho	9-4
7-6	Hiradoumi	M2	Gonoyama	5-8 (x)
6-2-5	Takayasu	M3
		M4	Ura	6-7
(x) 5-8	Onosho	M5	Meisei	8-5
		M7	Mitakeumi	8-5
		M8	Kotoshoho	8-5
9-4	Shonannoumi -M10

 

The sanyaku situation hasn't changed much. Onosato moves a step closer to becoming a Sekiwake

[Sakura]

14 hours ago, Sakura said:

Makuuchi - Juryo

(x) 0-0-13	Takerufuji	M6
		M11
		M12	Nishikifuji	4-9 (2)
(x) 2-9-2	Mitoryu	M13
		M14
(2) 5-8	Tokihayate	M15	Roga	6-7 (1)
(x) 2-11	Tomokaze	M16
(x) 3-10	Tsurugisho	M17

Juryo Banzuke

Result	East	Rank	West	Result
(2) 6-7	Daiamami	J1
(2) 7-6	Bushozan	J2
(o) 11-2	Endo	J3	Chiyoshoma	10-3 (o)
(x) 6-7	Tohakuryu	J4
(1) 9-4	Kagayaki	J5
		J6	Wakatakakage	12-1 (o)
		J7
(2) 12-1	Onokatsu	J12

 

I've updated the tables in the quote above. Lazy, I know. I am sorry about that. 

Roga moved one step closer to safety, and could potentially be safe already. That however will depend on Juryo where there are a number of potential candidates. Endo and Chiyoshoma have strong cases and Wakatakakage a good one. Onokatsu at 14-1 would have a good claim and there a few rikishi at the top who are close. 

[Akinomaki]

1 hour ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

There looks likely to be some hard-luck heartbreak at the top of makushita, with more promotable records than spaces available. On the other hand it does give the committee an opportunity to stage some cracking "exchange" bouts over the last 2 days.

Could well be that no-one will be demotable by recent standards and 2 have to be promoted - so far it is Fujiseiun, Akua can join, Kayo with 1 more win absolutely has to be promoted as well - the rules state: provided the banzuke situation allows it.

[Asashosakari]

1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

Could well be that no-one will be demotable by recent standards and 2 have to be promoted - so far it is Fujiseiun, Akua can join, Kayo with 1 more win absolutely has to be promoted as well - the rules state: provided the banzuke situation allows it.

What recent standards? Obviously guys placed like Oshoumi and Chiyomaru will be no-questions-asked demotions when there are strong promotion candidates, same as they always were. 

[Akinomaki]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

What recent standards? Obviously guys placed like Oshoumi and Chiyomaru will be no-questions-asked demotions when there are strong promotion candidates, same as they always were. 

Recent standards are to keep people who absolutely would have been demoted for somebody till 2 decades ago.

[Asashosakari]

Two decades ago may be a lot of things, but not "recent". And it has nothing to do with the present situation in any case, so I have no idea why you decided to raise the possibility "that no-one will be demotable".

Edited May 24, 2024 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake]

If someone with a 6-9 from J13 wasn't demoted recently, it was due to a lack of strong enough candidates.  We've seen now that 4-3 Ms3 might not be good enough in that case, but that doesn't mean that stronger records aren't as well.  I can't imagine how a 5-2 Ms1w or a 7-0 in the promotion zone isn't a strong enough candidate.  Thus, there's going to be 2 promotions.  It's everyone else that might be stiffed with a lack of demotable records.

edit: Ok, a 4-3 Akua would make things complicated and might crowd out Fujiseiun if no other demotable records appear.  But that doesn't change the fact that the J13s are toast.

Edited May 24, 2024 by Gurowake

[Gurowake]

4 hours ago, Sakura said:

 

Result	East	Rank	West	Result
0-2-11	Terunofuji	Y
9-4	Hoshoryu	O	Kotozakura	10-3
0-2-11	Takakeisho	O	Kirishima	1-6-6 (x)
(x) 4-6-3	Wakamotoharu	S	Abi	9-4
(x) 0-0-13	Asanoyama	K	Onosato	10-3
6-7	Atamifuji	M1	Daieisho	9-4
7-6	Hiradoumi	M2	Gonoyama	5-8 (x)
6-2-5	Takayasu	M3
		M4	Ura	6-7
(x) 5-8	Onosho	M5	Meisei	8-5
		M7	Mitakeumi	8-5
		M8	Kotoshoho	8-5
9-4	Shonannoumi -M10

 

The sanyaku situation hasn't changed much. Onosato moves a step closer to becoming a Sekiwake

I suppose Daieisho isn't 100% guaranteed a promotion to Komusubi given it's still technically possible that Atamifuji goes 8-7, Onosato loses his last two, and Daieisho himself doesn't win enough to force a third Komusubi slot, but he's a pretty safe promotion now as only Atamifuji can pass him in the queue and it's for technical reasons, not merit.

Hiradoumi currently has the next best claim should Atamifuji lose once and Onosato win once and open up another slot.  Meisei needs one more win than him to overtake him in line, and I don't think a veteran bonus will outweigh Hiradoumi's much tougher schedule and better rank/record combination should their last two days get them the same number of wins.  I'm not entirely certain that the one-slot advantage Meisei would have with just one more win would be enough to overcome the schedule issue, though if Meisei beats Onosato on senshuraku, that would be a good impression, though it's not certain he'll even get the chance.  Meisei's Sekiwake experience vs. Hiradoumi currently at his highest rank is still probably is enough that Meisei gets the promotion assuming he is better by the numbers, where in an even sanyaku experience situation I might think the rikishi with the full joi schedule would get the nod even at the small disadvantage by the numbers.

Everyone else needs to hope on a complete collapse of those mentioned (other than Onosato, who needs to win one to give them that chance).

Edited May 24, 2024 by Gurowake

[Reonito]

Juryo <-> Makushita Day 13

Juryo demotion queue: 13w Chiyomaru (4-9), 13e Oshoumi (4-9), 14w Kazekeno (6-7), 12w Tsushimanada (6-7), 8w Hakuoho (4-5-4). The guys in bold are toast despite winning today; Tochitaikai got his kachi-koshi and is now completely safe. Kazekeno needs to win his final two in order to not drop back down immediately; I don't think he can stay with a 7-8 given the quality of the promotion cases. Tsushimanada and Hakuoho go head-to-head tomorrow, with the winner reaching safety while the loser will need to win his Day 15 bout to ensure a stay.

Makushita promotion queue: 1w Kayo (5-1), 1e Akua (3-3) with a win, 11e Fujiseiun (7-0), 2w Nabatame (4-2), 3e Kiryuko (4-2), 3w Daiseizan (3-3) with a win, 4e Kitaharima (3-3) with a win, 4w Kotokuzan (4-3).

We only have two obvious openings, which should be spoken for by Kayo and Fujiseiun, so things could get sticky if Akua wins on Day 15, though presumably they'll set up an exchange bout with Kazekeno. With at most 4 possible promotions, Daiseizan et al. are now definitely out of luck even with kachi-koshi. Nabatame and/or Kiryuko could join a very short list of rikishi at their ranks to not get promoted with a 5-2 record. Will they be pitted head-to-head? There is no relevant Day 14 action in Makushita, so Day 14 results in Juryo will guide the scheduling for senshuraku.

Edited May 25, 2024 by Reonito

[Sakura]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

I suppose Daieisho isn't 100% guaranteed a promotion to Komusubi given it's still technically possible that Atamifuji goes 8-7, Onosato loses his last two, and Daieisho himself doesn't win enough to force a third Komusubi slot, but he's a pretty safe promotion now as only Atamifuji can pass him in the queue and it's for technical reasons, not merit.

Hiradoumi currently has the next best claim should Atamifuji lose once

I'm a bit conservative in x'ing out slots. Once Hiradoumi gets that 8th win, it'll elimate a lot of other rikishi. But he might lose twice.

[Bunbukuchagama]

5 hours ago, Sakura said:

Onosato moves a step closer to becoming a Sekiwake

11 wins should suffice, I assume?

[Tigerboy1966]

32 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

6 hours ago, Sakura said:

Onosato moves a step closer to becoming a Sekiwake

11 wins should suffice, I assume?

Well since 1941 38 komosubi have gone 11-4 and every single one was promoted to sekiwake, so yes, 11 wins forces promotion regardless of available spaces.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&amp;form1_rank=k&amp;form1_wins=11&amp;form1_losses=4

That would mean 10 men in sanyaku, which could have implications for the relegation zone.