Promotion/Demotion Discussion

[Sumo Spiffy]

9 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Yep, there's nothing else they can do but give him a big promotion.  We'll have to see if that means everyone else with similar records ranked just below him get similar treatment, or if they'll fill in the space with the MKs as soon as possible.  That's one of the big questions for the next banzuke.  The other is what to do with Asanoyama.  Based on how they placed Wakatakakage in the last comparable situation, it certainly seems like he could go down to M13, but that low placement last year was rather unusual, and there's a good spot to put him in the M10 area (where absent Komusubi were usually before that) so long as you're OK with either Churanoumi or Hokutofuji being pushed down below where they would naturally end up.

The surprising thing with Waka was that there were options above M12 where you could slot someone in pretty easily without disrupting the flow of the banzuke, but they still pushed him that far down. In this case, from M7 all the way down until you hit the juryo guys coming up, it looks like two guys getting single rank overpromotions and everyone else just a half-rank bump up. If you slot Asanoyama in before M13W, there's not really a spot that makes considerably more sense than the other options. It's not like the committee is incapable of being arbitrary, but for prediction purposes, if you lean towards Asanoyama not getting dunked to M13, it's hard to say which slot above that makes more sense than the others.

[Ripe]

8 hours ago, Morningstar said:

Short of a Yusho or a high scoring playoff loss, I think it will really depend on how the Ozeki and Yokozuna situation looks. If Takakeisho gets a losing record and Kirishima does not get his ten wins, and Terunofuji is still out, they may promote him just to shore up the top ranks and hopefully get another Yokozuna sooner rather than later. However, if they are looking strong, then they will probably wait and see how things turn out in September. 

It would also depend on who end up winning the Yusho (if it's not Onosato)... Terunofuji winning his 10th would be treated a lot different then someone else winning his 1st title (especially if that someone is at Maegashira rank).

[bettega]

On 26/05/2024 at 19:17, Gurowake said:

I don't think there's any dispute over that.  People were discussing what might be required for promotion after next basho, not after Aki.

I believe that Onosato’s chances of promotion in the next basho are extremely small, perhaps with a Yusho of 13-2 or better. Perhaps with a Jun-Yusho of 13+

[Bunbukuchagama]

10 hours ago, Ripe said:

especially if that someone is at Maegashira rank

Who could that be realistically? WTK? Suddenly healthy Asanoyama? 

Takayasu? 

[Ripe]

45 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Who could that be realistically? WTK? Suddenly healthy Asanoyama? 

Takayasu? 

Weirder things did happen... or did you forgot about Tokushoryu winning a Yusho? Did anyone see that happening?

[Tsuchinoninjin]

Wakatakakage, Endo, Chiyoshoma, and Kagayaki all coming back up eh? They're getting the band back together!

[Godango]

19 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

That's why I joked about 16 wins.  Onosato was great, but only half of San'yaku showed up.

In fairness, he did still beat 1 Y, 2 O and 2 S. Fought 6 out of 8 available sanyaku and only lost to one.

But also in fairness my thoughts are that he needs 13-2 D to earn promotion next time out.

[Tsuchinoninjin]

A 4 win sekiwake has last dropped to only M2 about 24 years ago, and a 8 win M8 going up to M2 last happened about 24 years ago... So pick your poison on that one.

[Reonito]

30 minutes ago, Godango said:

But also in fairness my thoughts are that he needs 13-2 D to earn promotion next time out.

As others have noted, the closest parallel is probably the current yokozuna promotion standard—consecutive yusho or 26 wins.

[Bunbukuchagama]

58 minutes ago, Ripe said:

Weirder things did happen... or did you forgot about Tokushoryu winning a Yusho? Did anyone see that happening?

Tokushoryu is a once in a century event. Sumo gods played their cosmic roulette and got "0" 5 times in row. 

[Bunbukuchagama]

52 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Wakatakakage, Endo, Chiyoshoma, and Kagayaki all coming back up eh? They're getting the band back together!

They lost Myogiryu puking in a bathroom of a roadside bar, it seems.

Edited May 28, 2024 by Bunbukuchagama

[Bunbukuchagama]

17 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

24 years ago

Nice numbers.

[Sumo Spiffy]

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

As others have noted, the closest parallel is probably the current yokozuna promotion standard—consecutive yusho or 26 wins.

I'm guessing the biggest question mark is if he gets a 12-3 yusho. It seems like that should be enough, but it also feels like it could be a situation where they judge the quality of it. Maybe he doesn't get ozeki if he loses to Hiradoumi again. 

[Bunbukuchagama]

1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Maybe he doesn't get ozeki if he loses to Hiradoumi again.

Hiradoumi will be Komusubi now. 

[Akinomaki]

If he's nice to the new guys, Myogiryu will retire till tomorrow morning

15 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

As of the 27th, Hochiyama changed from to Dekiyama to Tatsutagawa (after Homasho vacated it to be  now Shikoroyama). The NSK announced it today http://www.daily.co.jp/general/2024/05/28/0017704593.shtml

- But does he own the kabu now? the NSK list of duties still has him as Dekiyama, below Kotoeko https://www.sumo.or.jp/IrohaKyokai/rijikai/

Tatsutagawa is from a different ichimon - the Sakaigawa-beya Dekiyama kabu - Myogiryu needs it

If he waits, he'll be on the banzuke one more time - but I'm not sure how that will affect his salary. I guess he gets paid as oyakata after he hands in the papers, not after the next banzuke.

[dingo]

Why does everyone think Myogiryu will retire now? He will still be in Juryo and can stage his own solo comeback, separate from the oldtimer boyband returning to makuuchi next basho. 

[Bunbukuchagama]

19 minutes ago, dingo said:

Why does everyone think Myogiryu will retire now? He will still be in Juryo and can stage his own solo comeback, separate from the oldtimer boyband returning to makuuchi next basho. 

He looks done. He can milk his sekitori salary for another basho, I guess, but a comeback seems unlikely at the moment.

[just_some_guy]

7 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

He looks done. He can milk his sekitori salary for another basho, I guess, but a comeback seems unlikely at the moment.

I thought he was done last time he dropped to Juryo. Shows what I know, I suppose.

Based upon nothing but my often-inaccurate guesses I expect him to show up for at least one more basho and retire if he falls out of Juryo.

[Jakusotsu]

754 search results on this forum for +expect* +retir*

[Ack!]

16 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Wakatakakage, Endo, Chiyoshoma, and Kagayaki all coming back up eh? They're getting the band back together!

[Bunbukuchagama]

3 hours ago, just_some_guy said:

Based upon nothing but my often-inaccurate guesses I expect him to show up for at least one more basho and retire if he falls out of Juryo.

This seems reasonable. 

[Koorifuu]

 

^ based on the most recent posts in that thread, with some ruffling and shuffling - borrower Hochiyama hopping from kabu to kabu - we might expect news in the next few weeks.

It's, of course, not absolutely certain that it'll be Myogiryu, however likely it might be. The myoseki that's just been freed, Dekiyama, has been affiliated with Sakaigawa, Myogiryu's heya.

Edited May 28, 2024 by Koorifuu

[Sue]

On 26/05/2024 at 14:32, Sue said:

...and it frequently does, when the rikishi has made the decision during (or before) the tournament, and has the papers all ready to go, to hand in immediately after the end of senshuraku. The first post in the "retirements after Natsu 2024" thread will have the answer.

It seems that the answer is no, at least not in time for the banzuke.

Edited May 29, 2024 by Sue

[Yamanashi]

Don't know if this has been posted yet:

Sumo Food (Futagoyama) video on Nabatame's Juryo promotion.  He's a character.

 

 

[Bunbukuchagama]

1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

Sumo Food (Futagoyama) video on Nabatame's Juryo promotion.  He's a character.

He looks so happy...

His sumo is so one-dimensional, I fear he might drop back to Makushita immediately.