Haru 2024 Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk

[Sakura]

Sanyaku

2-5-8	Terunofuji	Y
5-10	Kirishima	O	Hoshoryu	11-4
8-6-1	Takakeisho	O	Kotonowaka	10-5
6-9 (x)	Daieisho	S	Wakamotoharu	9-6
9-6	Abi	K	Nishikigi	3-12 (x)
		M1	Asanoyama	9-6 (o)
8-7	Atamifuji	M2
		M5	Onosato	11-4

 

Daieisho drops his last to allow Asanoyama and one other to make Sanyaku.

[Sakura]

Makuuchi - Juryo

		M12	Shimazuumi	0-4-11 (x)
		M14	Kitanowaka	3-12 (x)
6-9 (x)	Myogiryu	M15
5-10 (x)	Endo	M16	Daiamami	7-8 (x)

Juryo Banzuke

Result	East	Rank	West	Result
8-7 (o)	Tokihayate	J1	Takarafuji	8-7 (o)
		J2	Mitoryu	12-3 (o)
		J3	Tomokaze	9-6 (o)
		J4	Oshoma	11-4 (o)

 

As @Asashosakari says, this has become straightforward. Bad news particularly for Myogiryu and Daiamami, who in other circumstances could have stayed up.

[Sakura]

(ko)	Hokuseiho	J3
4-11 (o)	Hakuyozan	J6
1-14 (x)	Kotoeko	J12
6-9 (?)	Akua	J13
4-11 (x)	Kitaharima	J14	Chiyosakae	8-7 (o)

Makushita Banzuke

Result	East	Rank	West	Result
4-3 (o)	Chiyomaru	Ms1
		Ms2	Onokatsu	5-2 (o)
		Ms3	Kayo	4-3
		Ms4	Tsukahara	5-2 (?)
		Ms5	Nabatame	4-3
		Ms13	Kazekeno	7-0 (o)

[Gurowake]

Shouldn't the discussion for the last Juryo slot also include Kayo?  He's the one I'm wavering putting there along with Akua.

The KKs at the bottom of Juryo can expect large promotions because there are a dearth of people to put on the banzuke starting around J8e.  Onokatsu might benefit greatly as well, as the only other option for J9w looks to be 5-10 J9e, however that happens to be Shimanoumi, so it looks like the latter will get the slot, and then with other reasonable options for the J10s, Onokatsu slips down to J11e where there actually are no options other than him.

[Gurowake]

Myogiryu(6-9 M15e)	J1	Bushozan(9-6 J5e)
Daishoho(10-5 J7w)	J2	Chiyoshoma(9-6 J6w)
Endo(5-10 M16e)	J3	Asakoryu(9-6 J8e)
Tohakuryu(6-9 J2e)	J4	Kagayaki(7-8 J4e)
Kitanowaka(3-12 M14w)	J5	Shirokuma(7-6 J5w)
Shishi(8-7 J8w)	J6	Wakatakakage(9-6 J10w)
Shimazuumi(0-4 M12w)	J7	Hidenoumi(7-8 J7e)
Hakuoho(8-7 J13w)	J8	Hakuyozan(4-11 J6e)
Chiyosakae(8-7 J14w)	J9	Shimanoumi(5-10 J9e)
Shiden(7-8 J10e)	J10	Tamashoho(6-9 J9w)
Onokatsu(5-2 Ms2w)	J11	Aoiyama(7-8 J11w)
Oshoumi(6-9 J11e)	J12	Tsushimanada(7-8 J12w)
Chiyomaru(4-3 Ms1e)	J13	Tsukahara(5-2 Ms4w)
Kazekeno(7-0 Ms13w)	J14	Kayo(4-3 Ms3w)

[Kaito]

24 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Myogiryu(6-9 M15e)	J1	Bushozan(9-6 J5e)
Daishoho(10-5 J7w)	J2	Chiyoshoma(9-6 J6w)
Endo(5-10 M16e)	J3	Asakoryu(9-6 J8e)
Tohakuryu(6-9 J2e)	J4	Kagayaki(7-8 J4e)
Kitanowaka(3-12 M14w)	J5	Shirokuma(7-6 J5w)
Shishi(8-7 J8w)	J6	Wakatakakage(9-6 J10w)
Shimazuumi(0-4 M12w)	J7	Hidenoumi(7-8 J7e)
Hakuoho(8-7 J13w)	J8	Hakuyozan(4-11 J6e)
Chiyosakae(8-7 J14w)	J9	Shimanoumi(5-10 J9e)
Shiden(7-8 J10e)	J10	Tamashoho(6-9 J9w)
Onokatsu(5-2 Ms2w)	J11	Aoiyama(7-8 J11w)
Oshoumi(6-9 J11e)	J12	Tsushimanada(7-8 J12w)
Chiyomaru(4-3 Ms1e)	J13	Tsukahara(5-2 Ms4w)
Kazekeno(7-0 Ms13w)	J14	Kayo(4-3 Ms3w)

Not sure if I'm missing something, but I think you promoted 5 out of Juryo and only demoted 4 from Makuuchi. Where's Daiamami?

[Asashosakari]

Low juryo...the pain...

Daiamami (M16w 7-8)      J1   Myogiryu (M15e 6-9)
Bushozan (J5e 9-6)       J2   Daishoho (J7w 10-5)
Endo (M16e 5-10)         J3   Chiyoshoma (J6w 9-6)
Kitanowaka (M14w 3-12)   J4   Kagayaki (J4e 7-8)
Tohakuryu (J2e 6-9)      J5   Asakoryu (J8e 9-6)
Shimazuumi (M12w 0-4-10) J6   Shirokuma (J5w 7-6-2)
Wakatakakage (J10w 9-6)  J7   Shishi (J8w 8-7)
Hidenoumi (J7e 7-8)      J8   Hakuoho (J13w 8-7)
Hakuyozan (J6e 4-11)     J9   Chiyosakae (J14w 8-7)
Shiden (J10e 7-8)        J10  Tamashoho (J9w 6-9)
Shimanoumi (J9e 5-10)    J11  Aoiyama (J11w 7-8)
Oshoumi (J11e 6-9)       J12  Tsushimanada (J12w 7-8)
Kazekeno (Ms13w 7-0 Y)   J13  Onokatsu (Ms2w 5-2)
Chiyomaru (Ms1e 4-3)     J14  Tsukahara (Ms4w 5-2)

[Gurowake]

5 hours ago, Kaito said:

Not sure if I'm missing something, but I think you promoted 5 out of Juryo and only demoted 4 from Makuuchi. Where's Daiamami?

That's a good question.  I'm not sure what happened to him.  I definitely wasn't nearly as thorough in my analysis due to wanting to not be spending tons of time on it. I suppose that means you can completely ignore what I posted.

[Reonito]

Do we need a poll for which one of Akua, Kayo, and Tsukahara gets the final spot in Juryo? I tend to agree it should be Tsukahara.

[Reonito]

Man, it's close between Daiamami and Tomokaze/Takarafuji.

[Akinomaki]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

which one of Akua, Kayo, and Tsukahara gets the final spot in Juryo?

I first was sure it would be Kayo anyway, but after today's (spirited) bout, I'll say it will be Tsukahara

[Bunbukuchagama]

2 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Man, it's close between Daiamami and Tomokaze/Takarafuji.

I think Tomokaze will get snubbed.

[Reonito]

Day 15

Just for completeness:

• Juryo demotion queue: Hokuseiho, Kotoeko, Kitaharima, Akua.
• Makushita promotion queue: Kazekeno, Onokatsu, Chiyomaru, Kayo or Tsukahara.

The sentiment seems to be that Tsukahara gets the final spot in Juryo over Akua and Kayo; we'll find out Wednesday.

• Makuuchi demotion queue: Shimazuumi, Kitanowaka, Endo, Myogiryu, Daiamami.
• Juryo promotion queue: Mitoryu, Oshoma, Tokihayate, Takarafuji, Tomokaze.

Takarafuji and Tomokaze are tied by the numbers, both with the bare-minimum promotable records. Daiamami has a bare-minimum demotable record. Should be 5 exchanges, but could be four (or even three if they decide to be extra-kind to Myogiryu).

• San'yaku demotion queue: Nishikigi, Daieisho.
• Promotion queue: Asanoyama, Onosato.

The only question here is who's K1e and who's K1w. Atamifuji takes M1e.

 

[Reonito]

6 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

I first was sure it would be Kayo anyway, but after today's (spirited) bout, I'll say it will be Tsukahara

Surprisingly few precedents, but they all point in that direction.

[Bunbukuchagama]

8 minutes ago, Reonito said:

The sentiment seems to be that Tsukahara gets the final spot in Juryo over Akua and Kayo

This is the latest example I could find:

Aki 2018 Banzuke (sumogames.de)

And before that we had this:

Kyushu 2017 Banzuke (sumogames.de)

Edited March 24, 2024 by Bunbukuchagama

[Bunbukuchagama]

Ms2 4-3 vs Ms3 5-2 also gets the same treatment.

Only Ms1 4-3 gets the advantage, possibly.

[Akinomaki]

19 minutes ago, Reonito said:

• Makuuchi demotion queue: Shimazuumi, Kitanowaka, Endo, Myogiryu, Daiamami.
• Juryo promotion queue: Mitoryu, Oshoma, Tokihayate, Takarafuji, Tomokaze.

Takarafuji and Tomokaze are tied by the numbers, both with the bare-minimum promotable records. Daiamami has a bare-minimum demotable record. Should be 5 exchanges, but could be four (or even three if they decide to be extra-kind to Myogiryu).

I'm sure it would be Takarafuji and Tomokaze definitely won't be promoted (because I had thought already before the bout he'd never be), but I think they'll keep Myogiryu and only promote the 3 definite ones.

[Akinomaki]

I don't think the torikumi makers care for the NSK poll, but what made me switch to Tsukahara was his result there: today a 2nd place in juryo after a no.1 on day 10 - Kayo was no.2 on day 14. Might be possible to check if good results in the poll lead to slightly more favorable treatment, though it definitely is not worth the effort.

[Reonito]

I guess if Endo were to retire before the banzuke meeting, there'd be room for Kayo...

[Bunbukuchagama]

8 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I guess if Endo were to retire before the banzuke meeting, there'd be room for Kayo...

He will probably milk his sekitorihood a little longer.

[Reonito]

14 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

He will probably milk his sekitorihood a little longer.

Not sure he needs to, he has a kabu, but no idea how much of a difference the extra months of salary make to various guys...

[Reonito]

Anybody want to take a shot at the next Makushita joi? @Gurowake @Asashosakari

[Reonito]

It's pretty slim pickings for the top 10; here's what I've been able to scrape together:

• Juryo: Akua (for sure), Kitaharima (for lack of better options)
• Ms1-Ms5 KK: Kayo, Nabatame
• 6-1: Ms13 Daiseizan (next is Ms22)
• 5-1: Ms6 Kototebakari, Ms8 Kiryuko, Ms15 Otsuji (?) (next is Ms17)
• 4-3: Ms7 Kotokuzan, Ms8 Daishomaru (next is Ms9)

[Bunbukuchagama]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

It's pretty slim pickings for the top 10; here's what I've been able to scrape together:

• Juryo: Akua (for sure), Kitaharima (for lack of better options)
• Ms1-Ms5 KK: Kayo, Nabatame
• 6-1: Ms13 Daiseizan (next is Ms22)
• 5-1: Ms6 Kototebakari, Ms8 Kiryuko, Ms15 Otsuji (?) (next is Ms17)
• 4-3: Ms7 Kotokuzan, Ms8 Daishomaru (next is Ms9)

Tokunomusashi? Haruyama? They are your "nexts".

Edited March 25, 2024 by Bunbukuchagama

[Reonito]

2 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Tokunomusashi? Haruyama? They are your "nexts".

Haruyama is too low I think. Tokunomusashi is plausible; not sure if he'd be ahead of Otsuji or Kitaharima. It's between those 3 for the final two spots, I think.

Edited March 25, 2024 by Reonito