Old tsukedashi and Height/weight requirements scrapped

[Seiyashi]

Ban oshizumo. 

(Firmly tongue in cheek.) 

[Yamanashi]

9 hours ago, Wakawakawaka said:

Loosely related question in regards to requirements for new recruits. On SPT I believe it was mentioned the rikishi in 'school' had to pass some physical fitness tests (run around the kokugikan, do pushups, etc.?)? And rikishi also go through health checkups. I assume they are not re-evaluated on the initial fitness tests? If they are not, why not? 

It seems like it would be a good thing for recruitment in the long run if...

Rikishi had to pass fitness tests so that > being as heavy as possible becomes not quite as heavy so that > injuries are reduced and long-term health is improved.

I think the fans would benefit directly too with faster, more dynamic sumo.

Almost all rikishi gain weight after they sign on.

While there are tough times for short, light wrestlers in an Open style system, there is a limit on how much advantage a heavier rikishi gets, so the actual bout results determine which is the best weight.  For example, only seven sekitori in Aki 2023 weighed more than 180 kg: Takakeisho, Aoiyama, Tsurugisho, Daiamami, Tomokaze, Mitoryu and Chiyomaru.  The Yusho notwithstanding, that's not a list of the dominant competitors; while one can argue (and have argued) that excess weight is bad for the rikishi's health, the results of matches sort out the best physiques for high-performance Sumo.

[Bunbukuchagama]

51 minutes ago, Yarimotsu said:

Exclude Takakeisho from the banzuke until he can do a 1200m jog in a respectable time? 

[Seiyashi]

To be fair to Takakeishō, with his asthma, losing weight wouldn't necessarily fix the problem either. 

Which begs the question of whether, if he were to take the fitness test, he would be allowed entry into sumo. 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Bunbukuchagama]

24 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

only seven sekitori in Aki 2023 weighed more than 180 kg: Takakeisho, Aoiyama, Tsurugisho, Daiamami, Tomokaze, Mitoryu and Chiyomaru. 

Conveniently, Terunofuji was absent; Ichinojo and Kaisei retired not long ago; and there is a lot of sekitori in the 165-180 kg range.

Size matters. 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Bunbukuchagama

[Yamanashi]

17 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Conveniently, Terunofuji was absent; Ichinojo and Kaisei retired not long ago; and there is a lot of sekitori in the 165-180 kg range.

Size matters. 

Of course it does.  My point is that it's not all that matters.  Putting requirements on new recruits is a good idea: a newbie who weighs 190 kg is going to have to prove that they aren't unhealthy at that weight (hint: they are).  My problem is with having significant restrictions during their career [I don't mean none -- Orora should not have been on the dohyo above 250 kg.] 

[Gurowake]

12 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

My point is that it's not all that matters.

Yeah, the one thing that I recall from watching Makushita matches, and from Wikipedia's example at one point of a Makushita match, is that there are some guys in the lower divisions that are absolutely massive, but have basically no agility.  If it was all about how much one weighed, they'd have gotten further in the sport.  There generally aren't that many sekitori who are just big without being reasonably agile as well, and it's generally rare for the heaviest guys to be at the very top of the banzuke.  Even Akebono wasn't really all that large for someone of his height.  The only person that got near the top of the banzuke while also being about as massive as possible and still able to climb onto the dohyo is Konishiki.  I don't think there's a single Yokozuna that I'd describe as unhealthily overweight in the way that Konishiki and Orora were. 

[Asashosakari]

Over on the Tachiai blog I commented with the following yesterday:

Quote

As far as I’m concerned, these tsukedashi changes merely finish correcting a 20-year-old mistake, them having started to address it with the SdTd introduction a few years ago. Ms15 never made sense the way it was implemented: as a highly exclusive access tier based on very flawed qualification criteria, which meant that both false positives (Mitoryu-type rikishi eligible) and false negatives (Shodai-type rikishi having to start from Jk) were way too high and way too impactful for a useful entry classification scheme.

An amusing anecdote about that: If the post-2000 tsukedashi rules had already been in effect in 1996, which of these real-world six Ms60 eligibles would have been the only one to start his professional career as Ms15, with everybody else in maezumo?

Shikona	Heya	Shusshin	Birth Date	Highest Rank	Hatsu Dohyo	Intai	Last Shikona
Kaiho	Hakkaku	Aomori	April 17, 1973	Komusubi	1996.01	2010.07	Kaiho
Tochinonada	Kasugano	Ishikawa	February 26, 1974	Sekiwake	1996.01	2012.01	Tochinonada
Yanagawa	Mihogaseki	Kochi	January 22, 1974	Juryo 6	1996.01	2011.01	Yanagawa
Yotsukasa	Irumagawa	Mie	September 25, 1973	Maegashira 11	1996.01	2005.11	Yotsukasa
Dejima	Musashigawa	Ishikawa	March 21, 1974	Ozeki	1996.03	2009.07	Dejima
Tokitsuumi	Tokitsukaze	Nagasaki	November 8, 1973	Maegashira 3	1996.03	2007.09	Tokitsuumi

Yeah, the one who failed to reach makuuchi.

[Tsuchinoninjin]

I keep seeing this sentiment around that this is older coaches punishing newer coaches because TD-eligible rikishi would have been seeking out newer, modern coaching styles. Now that they are bumped down 45 ranks, they won't? Wouldn't the old school coaches be more harsh on non-sekitori, so a lower start would benefit newer coaches (i.e. much better to start in Jonikuchi with a coach that won't beat you with some newspaper rolls)?

Where is this coming from? Nobody explains the reasoning, they just say it.

Edited October 1, 2023 by Tsuchinoninjin

[Asashosakari]

22 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

I keep seeing this sentiment around that this is older coaches punishing newer coaches because TD-eligible rikishi would have been seeking out newer, modern coaching styles. Now that they are bumped down 45 ranks, they won't? Wouldn't the old school coaches be more harsh on non-sekitori, so a lower start would benefit newer coaches (i.e. much better to start in Jonikuchi with a coach that won't beat you with some newspaper rolls)?

Where is this coming from? Nobody explains the reasoning, they just say it.

It's apparently a narrative from Chris Gould's fevered imagination.

[Katooshu]

Bizarre take 

[Wakawakawaka]

On 30/09/2023 at 23:57, Yarimotsu said:

What exactly is your proposal? Exclude Takakeisho from the banzuke until he can do a 1200m jog in a respectable time? 

I appreciate the sentiment but don't see how or why such a change from the status quo would be implemented.

How: Announce 'Fitness tests to be added to rikishi health check ups starting in 3 years'. If they fail I guess they are kyujo for the basho and will be retested prior to being able to enter the next one?

Why: Reduce injuries, potential knock-off effects such as improving recruitment. 

[Bunbukuchagama]

Competitive sports are bad for your health. Even if you BMI is not in sumo range.

[Sumo Spiffy]

19 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

I keep seeing this sentiment around that this is older coaches punishing newer coaches because TD-eligible rikishi would have been seeking out newer, modern coaching styles. Now that they are bumped down 45 ranks, they won't? Wouldn't the old school coaches be more harsh on non-sekitori, so a lower start would benefit newer coaches (i.e. much better to start in Jonikuchi with a coach that won't beat you with some newspaper rolls)?

Where is this coming from? Nobody explains the reasoning, they just say it.

Yeah... I acknowledged the idea in my video in part because it sounded like Chris was getting that from somewhere as opposed to creating a storyline, but even if true, that source might have been creating a storyline. But the other reason I included it was that the other ideas I threw in weren't all that convincing either, since nothing answers the question of why ms10/15 starts had to be taken away to allow for more wrestlers to start at ms60. If anything, the introduction of the ms60 start for some wrestlers should make ms10/15 for amateur champs be more sensible, because there's not such a huge gap between the tournament winners and everyone else.

Edit: To be clear, as much as I hate it, I could see influential coaches who are mad about this taking a "screw those kids" mindset towards future rikishi because the last handful of high-flying amateurs spurned them. That could come out in a lot of ways, but this would be one of them. So, even though it's definitely not logical, I can see how this may be a situation where we're not dealing with fully logical decision-making.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Sumo Spiffy

[Bunbukuchagama]

4 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Yeah... I acknowledged the idea in my video in part because it sounded like Chris was getting that from somewhere as opposed to creating a storyline, but even if true, that source might have been creating a storyline. But the other reason I included it was that the other ideas I threw in weren't all that convincing either, since nothing answers the question of why ms10/15 starts had to be taken away to allow for more wrestlers to start at ms60. If anything, the introduction of the ms60 start for some wrestlers should make ms10/15 for amateur champs be more sensible, because there's not such a huge gap between the tournament winners and everyone else.

Edit: To be clear, as much as I hate it, I could see influential coaches who are mad about this taking a "screw those kids" mindset towards future rikishi because the last handful of high-flying amateurs spurned them. That could come out in a lot of ways, but this would be one of them. So, even though it's definitely not logical, I can see how this may be a situation where we're not dealing with fully logical decision-making.

It's not "old oyakata vs. new oyakata", it's "old oyakata vs. spoiled youths who need to learn respect for their elders". This is how I see it (no inside info to confim it). 

[Sumo Spiffy]

11 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

It's not "old oyakata vs. new oyakata", it's "old oyakata vs. spoiled youths who need to learn respect for their elders". This is how I see it (no inside info to confim it). 

I DEMAND TO KNOW YOUR SOURCES

[Asashosakari]

1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Yeah... I acknowledged the idea in my video in part because it sounded like Chris was getting that from somewhere as opposed to creating a storyline, but even if true, that source might have been creating a storyline. But the other reason I included it was that the other ideas I threw in weren't all that convincing either, since nothing answers the question of why ms10/15 starts had to be taken away to allow for more wrestlers to start at ms60. If anything, the introduction of the ms60 start for some wrestlers should make ms10/15 for amateur champs be more sensible, because there's not such a huge gap between the tournament winners and everyone else.

As I said, the introduction of the Ms15 start was stupid to begin with, so absent compelling evidence that it was serving an actual purpose there really was no reason to keep anything from that system in the revisions, and it's thus rather silly to hold that outcome against the decision makers. If anything, keeping Ms15 only for the double tournament winners (i.e. the former Ms10's) might have made some sense, because you can't fluke two victories, but at that point we're talking about so few candidates (we saw five in 23 years) that it's hardly surprising that they didn't bother to include such a provision.

I will say it's rather amusing how many newer fans have become attached to something that was roundly maligned when it was introduced.

 

Quote

Edit: To be clear, as much as I hate it, I could see influential coaches who are mad about this taking a "screw those kids" mindset towards future rikishi because the last handful of high-flying amateurs spurned them. That could come out in a lot of ways, but this would be one of them. So, even though it's definitely not logical, I can see how this may be a situation where we're not dealing with fully logical decision-making.

And somehow in the process of screwing over at most four potential applicants per year the NSK ended up improving things for another (up to) 45. Wow! They must truly be both vindictive and stupid. Seriously: If there's something here that's not "fully logical", it's fans who erroneously consider themselves so much smarter than sumo's decision makers that they will actually believe in a narrative like that.

Edit: Make that up to 53, I forgot about the spots for high schoolers.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari]

Since some exposition is apparently needed:

Back in the 1990s the bogeyman put up by sumo's old guard wasn't "uncoachable foreigners", it was "uncoachable collegiates". There was loads of "these guys coming in at age 22 have it too easy" and "it's just impossible to truly understand sumo if you didn't start as a green kid out of middle school" sentiment going around. Going by what was being reported back then, there were Kyokai people who would have preferred to scrap the tsukedashi system altogether and have everyone start from maezumo. The Ms15/10 system was essentially a face-saving compromise where 80-90% of the rookies coming in from universities were deprived of the opportunity to start at Ms60 in exchange for the alleged "top" 10-20% receiving the vastly improved Ms15 start.

In other words, that was the actual "screw the talented guys and the stables that recruit them" rule change, not the current one. This one merely goes back to acknowledging the reality that a large collegiate presence is inevitable among sekitori-caliber rikishi, and that having them beat up on hapless jonokuchi-to-sandanme opposition for the first 6 to 8 months of their career does nothing for anybody.

(I'm looking forward to seeing yusho races down there that are much less of a foregone conclusion now. If only they could also find a way to get the guys coming back from long-term injuries out of there, too...)

[Bunbukuchagama]

I still don't see why you need to kill Ms10-15TD when you decide to give amateur rikishi easier time with Ms60TD.

[Reonito]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

If anything, keeping Ms15 only for the double tournament winners (i.e. the former Ms10's) might have made some sense, because you can't fluke two victories, but at that point we're talking about so few candidates (we saw five in 23 years) that it's hardly surprising that they didn't bother to include such a provision.

It seems like in the era I know, the two guys you'd want to fast-track, in addition to the Ms10 qualifiers, were Ichinojo and Ochiai. They both went the corporate route; I don't know if there are any criteria that don't involve hindsight that would have picked them out alongside the double champions. I feel like it's good to have that provision, even (or maybe especially) if it's not invoked very often, for the excitement it generates, but you're right, it's one guy every 3-5 years.

[Asashosakari]

59 minutes ago, Reonito said:

It seems like in the era I know, the two guys you'd want to fast-track, in addition to the Ms10 qualifiers, were Ichinojo and Ochiai. They both went the corporate route; I don't know if there are any criteria that don't involve hindsight that would have picked them out alongside the double champions. I feel like it's good to have that provision, even (or maybe especially) if it's not invoked very often, for the excitement it generates, but you're right, it's one guy every 3-5 years.

Yeah, that's why I wouldn't have been opposed to such an add-on rule being included. Though I don't think the level of excitement for the Ms10 starters was necessarily greater than it was when, say, Musoyama and Miyabiyama debuted with a 7-0 at Ms60. It just happened one basho later for those guys. And I for one prefer performance-based hype like that over reputation-based hype. (Incidentally, these two wouldn't have started at Ms15 under the post-2000 rules either. Musoyama won one of the major titles, but as a junior, and Miyabiyama's best result was a semifinal.)

FWIW, Hakuoho could have started at Ms60 under the new rules as an All-Japan quarterfinalist (did it as a high schooler). I'm not sure if Ichinojo would have qualified for Sd100. Definitely not through the Kokutai junior competition, where he didn't participate in his last high school year after he had been runner-up the year before. I don't have his results from the 2012 High School Championship at hand to know if he might have been in the top 4 there. In general, I think the new regulations about high school tsukedashi are a wait-and-see thing; I wouldn't be surprised to see further tweaks there in a few years.

Even more generally speaking, I hope they re-adopt another part of the pre-2000 regulations eventually, namely allowing candidates to claim results going two years back, not just one. (At least I'm assuming it's still only going to be a one year window. None of the articles that reported on the upcoming changes last week mentioned anything about that subtopic.)

And since you mentioned the corporate tournaments, I do wonder what prompted the Kyokai to stop recognizing them for tsukedashi eligibility now. You can count the rikishi who entered from there on one hand and have a finger to spare (Takamifuji, Daiamami and the two you mentioned), so maybe the boring answer is that they just didn't see the point of it anymore, but it also wouldn't surprise me if some stakeholder lobbied for it. Perhaps the corporate circuit itself for not wanting to be used as a tsukedashi mill by high schoolers any longer, or even the collegiate folks because it was drawing those tsukedashi-chasing guys away from their circuit. But that's just me wildly speculating. Until I do a video about it anyway, then it will obviously be well-considered analysis.

Edit: I'm 10 years too late with that thought, but maybe Ichinojo wasn't actually eligible for the Kokutai juniors in 2012. He was one year older than his third-year Japanese classmates, perhaps there are/were Kokutai rules that excluded him based on that. Would alternate universe Ichinojo have dropped out of school after gaining SdTd eligibility as the Kokutai runner-up in 2011? Who knows.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Asashosakari

[MrGrumpyGills]

On 01/10/2023 at 06:50, Yamanashi said:

Almost all rikishi gain weight after they sign on.

While there are tough times for short, light wrestlers in an Open style system, there is a limit on how much advantage a heavier rikishi gets, so the actual bout results determine which is the best weight.  For example, only seven sekitori in Aki 2023 weighed more than 180 kg: Takakeisho, Aoiyama, Tsurugisho, Daiamami, Tomokaze, Mitoryu and Chiyomaru.  The Yusho notwithstanding, that's not a list of the dominant competitors; while one can argue (and have argued) that excess weight is bad for the rikishi's health, the results of matches sort out the best physiques for high-performance Sumo.

According to the recent weight thread, Takakeishō weighs 165 kg, not 180 kg.

 

[Asashosakari]

And one last comment, then I'm definitely all out of things to say about the topic...

As I've probably made more than clear, I believe that this incoming system is generally good (not perfect, of course), and definitely an improvement over what they had. If I were in charge of further improving it, I'd probably go for this at the collegiate level:

• results obtained in the last 12 months: top 8's to Ms60, top 16's to Sd90 (i.e. what they have introduced now),
• results obtained 12-24 months ago: top 4's to Ms60, top 8's to Sd90,
• results obtained at any point in time: one major victory to Ms60; two (or more) major victories to Ms30; to Ms15 if two of them were in the last 12 months.

The second point is intended to acknowledge that candidates might have had a better junior than senior year (due to injuries or whatever other reasons), but also recognize that older results are inherently less predictive of current ability, so the targets for eligibility should be higher. I don't feel there's any need to cover results even longer ago, except championship victories.

As for what will surely be seen as a major omission by some: I just don't believe that winning one major title means anything more than that you've won a major title, so I don't see any need to provide an accelerated starting point for that; those winners already got their prize when they got to lift the corresponding trophy. The last 23 years of collegiate rikishi turning pro are littered with examples of maezumo starters overshadowing the same-year Ms15 qualifiers, as are the hypothetical class years before 2001.

Of course one could make things even more granular and complex, but at some point you just have to let nature run its course instead of trying to be perfectly fair to every possible case. Putting all gakusei rikishi who are "reasonably good" at Ms60 and letting professional opponents sort out the differences between them worked fine until the 1990s, and it will work fine next year and beyond, too.

FWIW, these are the guys who turned pro 2001-2023 and would have got to start higher than Ms60 if these rules had been in place (italics if corporate title involved, bold for real world Ms10's):

Ms30:
Futeno (All-Japan 2000, Kokutai 2002, pro 2003)
Takamifuji (University 2002, Corporate 2003, pro 2004)
Hokutofuji (University 2012, Kokutai 2013, pro 2015)
Mitoryu (All-Japan 2015, University 2016, pro 2017)

Ms15:
Kakizoe (University & Kokutai 2000, pro 2001)
Takekaze (University & Kokutai 2001, pro 2002)
Wakakeisho (University & Kokutai 2005, pro 2006)
Kiyoseumi (All-Japan & Kokutai 2006, pro 2007)
Chiyotairyu (University & Kokutai 2010, pro 2011)
Endo (All-Japan & Kokutai 2012, pro 2013)
Mitakeumi (All-Japan & University 2014, pro 2015)
Onosato (University & Kokutai 2019, All-Japan 2021, All-Japan & Kokutai 2022, pro 2023)

There are actually quite a few at Ms15 there who weren't at the real Ms10 since I'm also counting double tournament winners who didn't take the All-Japan title. You be the judge if that's an improvement or not.

Hokutofuji would have been the biggest beneficiary as a winner of multiple titles that were both not in his senior year (which meant a maezumo start in the real world).

Edited October 2, 2023 by Asashosakari

[dingo]

I don't have anything particular to contribute, but I just want to take the opportunity to say that this and the current urakata promotions thread are the best examples of why I like this forum so much. Everyone, but especially Asashosakari and Akinomaki taking time to provide mountains and mountains of fascinating sumo knowledge and history is simply awe-inspiring. I can't thank you enough and can only hope for many interesting contributions in the future. 

[Inside Sport Japan]

JSA on right track with new rules to increase pro sumo participation

Edited October 6, 2023 by Inside Sport Japan