Games Talk - Nagoya 2023

[Bunbukuchagama]

I finished 0-15 in the last edition of Sekitori Toto, I'm 0-5 now. It is a combined streak of (at least) 0-20; how improbable is that? It shouldn't have happened even if I were to choose randomly.  

[Athenayama]

If I may, too many "X"s. Pick a winner. You'll score better for sure. You'll get there, you're too good a player not be good also at Toto.

[Bunbukuchagama]

2 minutes ago, Athenayama said:

If I may, too many "X"s. Pick a winner. You'll score better for sure. You'll get there, you're too good a player not be good also at Toto.

I checked Haru (when I went 8-7 or something like that) and didn't notice any difference in the number of Xs. The frustrating part is - I don't even know if I am ever close because the math is hidden completely.

[Athenayama]

If you clik on the day number, example "5" for today, you'll have the detailed results. Click on a shikona and you'll have the picks of the day.

[Jakusotsu]

3 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

The frustrating part is - I don't even know if I am ever close because the math is hidden completely.

There's a cleverly hidden magic wand in form of the clickable column headers at the results page.

[Bunbukuchagama]

Just now, Jakusotsu said:

There's a cleverly hidden magic wand in form of the clickable column headers at the results page.

OMG, it's hidden really well. 

[Bunbukuchagama]

O'K, I see how it works; the game encourages the player to gamble on 50-50 matches, but I did the opposite by playing it safe; as a result, I am never at the bottom of each day's standing, but always below the median.

The only remaining question is: how the hell did I manage to get 8-7 playing my way back in Haru?!

[Jakusotsu]

3 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

The only remaining question is: how the hell did I manage to get 8-7 playing my way back in Haru?!

Dice, dice, baby!

[Bunbukuchagama]

26 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Dice, dice, baby!

Well, yeah - I was being incredibly lucky without realizing it.

[Tetsuba]

I still wonder if taking a couple "X"s can be optimal, as of now I'm taking only a couple or none each day, but my results are mediocre at best.
Guess I'm just not good at this 

[Kaito]

1 hour ago, Tetsuba said:

I still wonder if taking a couple "X"s can be optimal, as of now I'm taking only a couple or none each day, but my results are mediocre at best.
Guess I'm just not good at this 

Taking an X has an expected value of .5, which can just as easily be achieved by flipping a coin when you're unsure. Since no match is a true 50/50, making an informed decision should, in theory, always be beneficial, even if your edge is incredibly small.

The reason to pick an X is if you suspect your picks are more cookie-cutter than average, because your tiebreaker will be below average. With an odd number of X's, you'll usually tie fewer players.

The downside to picking more than 1 X is that picking X's also hurts your tiebreaker. Picking 1 doesn't hurt since you'll only tie others with an odd number of X's.

Most days I pick 1 X. Some days I'll realize I've gone strongly against the grain on a few picks so I'll forgo it.

[Konosato]

I've been playing Sekitoto for more than 20 years and I only used the "X" for the first two or three appearances and since then I've never used it again, it's almost an honor for me not to TO DO 

[Ganzohnesushi]

2 hours ago, Konosato said:

I've been playing Sekitoto for more than 20 years and I only used the "X" for the first two or three appearances and since then I've never used it again, it's almost an honor for me not to TO DO 

Same here, I guess some 10 or 12 years ago I had my last x-pick and that was just an oversight.

Ganzohnesushi

[Bunbukuchagama]

Tried a different approach yesterday, took way fewer Xs and... Got the worst result of the day! 

[Jakusotsu]

43 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Tried a different approach yesterday, took way fewer Xs and... Got the worst result of the day! 

Time for a different strategy: pick more winners!

[Bunbukuchagama]

Just now, Jakusotsu said:

Time for a different strategy: pick more winners!

Wow, it's so obvious - how did I not try this one before? 

[Bunbukuchagama]

You all made me feel like a filthy peasant among knights in shiny armour - so, I decided to submit an entry with zero X's. 

Let's see how it works for me. 

[Bunbukuchagama]

20 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

You all made me feel like a filthy peasant among knights in shiny armour - so, I decided to submit an entry with zero X's. 

Let's see how it works for me. 

It worked! Scored just above the median. At the same time, Exidrono (with its 33 Xs) is 2 places above me. 

[Jakusotsu]

Two forum members left in Chain Gang with Kaito having the upper hand over Bunbukuchagama by tie-breaker - exciting finish!

[Bunbukuchagama]

23 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Two forum members left in Chain Gang with Kaito having the upper hand over Bunbukuchagama by tie-breaker - exciting finish!

We are both through to Day 10.

[Sumo Spiffy]

Teru's out, Asanoyama's out, Kiri's obviously hurt, Takayasu sure looked hurt, Nishikifuji apparently was reported injured before the basho but I didn't see it (although I guessed it might be the case). That is one-half of my Bench team.

In a way it makes picking who I put in the lineup a lot easier. On the other, I've had five guys win over the last two days combined.

Challenges! Hooray.

[Athenayama]

@Kaito We'll both bounce back !

[Bunbukuchagama]

23 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

We are both through to Day 10.

Too bad; this would have been my first "major" yusho. 

[Jakusotsu]

18 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Too bad; this would have been my first "major" yusho. 

There are many to come, I'm sure.

Congrats, @Kaito !

[Jakusotsu]

Excellent bet by @Balon in Odd!

(...although he got lucky with a veeeery dubious shinpan call for Takanosho/Daishoho...)