Nagoya Ozeki Promotion Tracking (Daiesho, Hosoryu, Wakmotoharu)

[robnplunder]

4 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Hoshoryu's two fusensho at Natsu cast realistic doubts on whether he'd be asked for a bit extra for Nagoya.

I thought about this, too.   Hoshoyru may need one more win than the Takamotoharu. 

The more I think about this thread, one shin-ozeki after this basho seems to be more realistic than 0, 2, or 3.  

[Reonito]

3 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

A win is a win, you cannot blame a man for being lucky. 

History suggests that only fans pay attention to fusen wins; the NSK couldn't care less.

[Yarimotsu]

15 hours ago, robnplunder said:

I thought about this, too.   Hoshoyru may need one more win than the Takamotoharu. 

The more I think about this thread, one shin-ozeki after this basho seems to be more realistic than 0, 2, or 3.  

I wouldn't want to do the math to 'prove' this but I'd be highly surprised if 1 wasn't the most likely. 0 would have to be similiarly likely, 2 very unlikely and 3 almost impossible.

[Sakura]

17 hours ago, Reonito said:

History suggests that only fans pay attention to fusen wins; the NSK couldn't care less.

I have a memory (maybe false) of Takayasu needing one more because of a fusensho.

[Reonito]

1 hour ago, Sakura said:

I have a memory (maybe false) of Takayasu needing one more because of a fusensho.

Kirishima had two and still had his target set at 10. Shodai had one in his 32/3, Asanoyama had two.

[Jakusotsu]

15 hours ago, Sakura said:

I have a memory (maybe false) of Takayasu needing one more because of a fusensho.

That "one more" might have been because of his previous stint at Ozeki (see causa Miyabiyama).

[Sakura]

6 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

That "one more" might have been because of his previous stint at Ozeki (see causa Miyabiyama).

I was thinking of his original one.

[just_some_guy]

I'll put on my robe and wizard hat and consult my magic 8 ball...

I'm entirely 50/50 on whether *any* of the three get promoted this go round, but what I see very likely to happen is at least one hits the 32-wins-over-three-basho mark (one below 'the number'). I'm inclined to say that such a record doesn't get a promotion unless it comes with a yusho (unlikely, but 11-win yushos can happen, ok).

I will be surprised if more than one gets promoted after this basho though. Perhaps the others get there later.

[Bunbukuchagama]

Double post, forum glitching like crazy.

Edited July 3, 2023 by Bunbukuchagama

[Bunbukuchagama]

6 hours ago, just_some_guy said:

11-win yushos can happen

It only happened once twice in the 15-bout era, if I am not mistaken. 

[Reonito]

29 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

It only happened once twice in the 15-bout era, if I am not mistaken. 

Three times, but who's counting?  Tochiazuma in 1972 outright, Musashimaru 1996 in a 5-way playoff, and Harumafuji famously chasing down Goeido from 3 wins behind on Day 10 to tie him on Day 15 and win the playoff in 2017.

[Asashosakari]

I wouldn't be surprised if Daieisho could make it with 10. A joi series of 10-12-10-10 is quite the calling card in the current mini-era, and his age and upper-rank history are such that they just might throw up their hands and go, "well, let's see how this goes if we promote him". By contrast, Hoshoryu's too young for a cheap-ish promotion and Wakamotoharu's too new.

Edited July 3, 2023 by Asashosakari

[Bunbukuchagama]

4 hours ago, Reonito said:

Three times, but who's counting?  Tochiazuma in 1972 outright, Musashimaru 1996 in a 5-way playoff, and Harumafuji famously chasing down Goeido from 3 wins behind on Day 10 to tie him on Day 15 and win the playoff in 2017.

Hm, how did I miss Harumafuji? 

[dingo]

Goeido's meltdown was incredible to watch, and for me unforgettable to this day. I'm still shaking my head thinking about how it's possible to mess up a yusho that bad. 

[Seiyashi]

1 hour ago, dingo said:

Goeido's meltdown was incredible to watch, and for me unforgettable to this day. I'm still shaking my head thinking about how it's possible to mess up a yusho that bad. 

Takayasu says hi.

[yorikiried by fate]

On 30/06/2023 at 13:32, Jakusotsu said:

Which begs the question: has that ever happened before? I guess not.

I don't know if the qualifiers in the quote that you quoted ("officialy announced", "no problematic results") spoil the effort, but this search hints at the rarity:

Query.

Edited July 4, 2023 by yorikiried by fate
Removed shin-Ozeki of basho 3

[Jakusotsu]

1 hour ago, yorikiried by fate said:

I don't know if the qualifiers in the quote that you quoted ("officialy announced", "no problematic results") spoil the effort, but this search hints at the rarity:

Query.

I refined it a bit more, leaving only one precedence.

[Koorifuu]

On 03/07/2023 at 06:27, Jakusotsu said:

That "one more" might have been because of his previous stint at Ozeki (see causa Miyabiyama).

Making things harder for Shodai via causa Miyabiyama would be one thing, but would they really make it harder for Takayasu if he'd stay healthy long enough for another ozeki run? He was a perfectly honourable ozeki for most of his stint, it took a bad injury to let him down.

I don't think this was an issue for Terunofuji a couple of years ago - although it could be argued that he had plenty of leverage anyway since came into the third basho with 24 wins.

Edited July 4, 2023 by Koorifuu

[yorikiried by fate]

1 hour ago, Jakusotsu said:

I refined it a bit more, leaving only one precedence.

Yeah, I see what you did there, but with this you managed to filter out a constellation with a run that actually led to promotion (Wajima, who had a 8-7 in basho 2). But yes, probably at that time nobody thought that there are actually three candidates...

[rhyen]

On 04/07/2023 at 09:49, Bunbukuchagama said:

Hm, how did I miss Harumafuji? 

*chucks the karaoke remote control away*

[robnplunder]

Day 1 outlook:

Daieisho vs Shodai - A sure win for Daieisho as he beat Shodai in their last 9 of 10 matches.  

Hoshoryu vs Tobizaru - Hoshoryu should have no issue out-maneuvering the little guy.

Kirishima vs Nishikigi - Nishikigi finished the last basho with 8 straight wins.  If he still has the same form, he will give Kirishima all he can handle.  I see this match as a potential upset win fro Nishikigi.  

[Seiyashi]

5 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

Kirishima vs Nishikigi - Nishikigi finished the last basho with 8 straight wins.  If he still has the same form, he will give Kirishima all he can handle.  I see this match as a potential upset win fro Nishikigi.  

Worth noting that the last ōzeki to change name on promotion (and maybe also a shimekomi, but we will see), had a pretty arsed start to his shin-ōzeki basho. I hope Kirishima can break that jinx. That said, Kirishima has beat Nishikigi twice before, including in March this year, so Nishikigi is not as unknown to him as Yoshikaze was to Harumafuji.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Yarimotsu]

1 hour ago, robnplunder said:

Day 1 outlook:

Daieisho vs Shodai - A sure win for Daieisho as he beat Shodai in their last 9 of 10 matches.  

Hoshoryu vs Tobizaru - Hoshoryu should have no issue out-maneuvering the little guy.

Kirishima vs Nishikigi - Nishikigi finished the last basho with 8 straight wins.  If he still has the same form, he will give Kirishima all he can handle.  I see this match as a potential upset win fro Nishikigi.  

Shouldn't we be looking at wakamotoharu's match instead of kirishima's?

[Akinomaki]

Shimpan top Sadogatake would like to have all three make it to ozeki this time. He wants to wait till day 15 and hopes for good sumo. https://www.sanspo.com/article/20230707-PSB4RGV6OFJW3GNYQPVLACFNWM/

This means that 32 wins and good sumo will be a sure promotion for all of them. With Takakeisho out, Kirishima, Terunofuji and Asanoyama in pain and not 100% fit, the chances are not bad. Kotonowaka and Abi may spoil it for them, they seem to be in good shape and are ozeki hopefuls as well.

With this constellation, I don't think we'll get a low-end makuuchi yusho again this year, but likely in the runner-up results.

[RabidJohn]

2 hours ago, Yarimotsu said:

Shouldn't we be looking at wakamotoharu's match instead of kirishima's?

Yes, we should. 

He's up against Mitakeumi - 3-1 h2h in Wakamotoharu's favour.