Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Haru 2023

[Katooshu]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

I don't see why you're singling out Shimanoumi as definitely staying over Tsushimanada.  They seem equivalent to me, and if anything I'd put Tsushimanada ahead of Shimanoumi on the banzuke in general.  I also think it is more likely that both of them are staying and neither Shiden nor Kawazoe will be promoted, but that's not particularly more likely than the next most likely option, which is that both Shimanoumi and Tsushimanada get demoted and both Kawazoe and Shiden get promoted.  I think splitting the difference is not as likely to happen because it doesn't seem fair to either of both pairs that get the shaft.

For Makuuchi, I don't think we'll see any overdemotions; those are very rare and only occur when they aren't actually overdemotions due to disappearing ranks or the records in Juryo compel promotion.  That's just not the case with Gonoyama or Shonannoumi.  In the banzuke I linked previously featuring an overdemotion, it was for an 11-4 J2w, quite a ways from an 11-4 J6e.

Shodai seems to be a lock on Komusubi.  I can't imagine them changing their minds from last basho regarding whether a 10-5 M1w should be promoted when they didn't promote Tamawashi and thus couldn't have been using the excuse that he deserved to be ranked ahead of Tobizaru who needed to be promoted as a KK M1e.  We never really had an opportunity before to see what they'd do with a M1w 10-5 with no Komusubi spots open until last basho, so given their decisions then it seems odd to not think it to be the standard.  Only if the committee were changing would I consider it otherwise.

What makes you think Shimanoumi and Tsushimanada are both staying? I'm no rankings buff, but the record of juryo rikishi staying sekitori with those numbers at those ranks is awful.

Edited March 26, 2023 by Katooshu

[Gurowake]

53 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

What makes you think Shimanoumi and Tsushimanada are both staying? I'm no rankings buff, but the record of juryo rikishi staying sekitori with those numbers at those ranks is awful.

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

We certainly have examples of 4-11 J9 being exchanged with promotion candidates no better than Kawazoe, and no one with those numbers has ever stayed up. It's similar for 5-10 from J11, so I don't think both staying is on the table.

I looked again at the recent situation that I thought was comparable, and it involved a 4-3 Ms4, not a 4-3 Ms3.  Bad memory on my part; I should probably actually verify the comparables I use in my head before relying on them to make prognostications.  So yeah, I guess that it is more likely that both swaps will occur.  http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=202201#J

Edited March 26, 2023 by Gurowake

[Reonito]

1 minute ago, Gurowake said:

I looked again at the recent situation that I thought was comparable, and it involved a 4-3 Ms4, not a 4-3 Ms3.  Bad memory on my part; I should probably actually verify the comparables I use in my head before relying on them to make prognostications.  So yeah, I guess that it is more likely that both swaps will occur.  http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=202201#J

Oh, I remember that one; I think it left us all 

[Yamanashi]

1 hour ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

The only other thing that could really spoil your day on the first of May is "The Shodai Conundrum" which btw, would be great title for a Robert Ludlum novel.

Or,

"How Do You Handle a Problem Like Shodai", from the Broadway cast album of The Sound of Sumo.

[Kaito]

2 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I think it doesn't look too tough, but the positioning of the big two promotees is the real puzzler. Common sense would suggest that there isn't much point popping them in near the bottom of the banzuke where they would just batter everyone (apart from each other). It would be sensible to place them around M5/M6 on the fringe of jo'i... it would also be a lot more fun.

The only other thing that could really spoil your day on the first of May is "The Shodai Conundrum" which btw, would be great title for a Robert Ludlum novel.

I think the top and bottom of the maegashira ranks look straightforward, but you quickly have to start placing extremely lenient falls from the joi or extremely generous promotions from the bottom of the division, and once you start interweaving them, it seems hard to avoid giving wildly different treatment to different people from the same groups, made worse by putting Ichinojo and Asanoyama anywhere in the middle of it.

[Sumo Spiffy]

4 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I think it doesn't look too tough, but the positioning of the big two promotees is the real puzzler. Common sense would suggest that there isn't much point popping them in near the bottom of the banzuke where they would just batter everyone (apart from each other). It would be sensible to place them around M5/M6 on the fringe of jo'i... it would also be a lot more fun.

The positive movement on this next banzuke is going to be higher than we've seen in a bit, and very high for a situation where no one sped down the ranks on the Sails of Kyujo, but even so, M5/6 would require pushing those two even higher than the math says they should go, and... I dunno. Feels wrong, considering this is all supposed to be performance-based and not "but we know he's this good".

Just put one at M8 and one at M9 so we all have EZ Clap time in Roto.

[Reonito]

5 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

The positive movement on this next banzuke is going to be higher than we've seen in a bit, and very high for a situation where no one sped down the ranks on the Sails of Kyujo, but even so, M5/6 would require pushing those two even higher than the math says they should go, and... I dunno. Feels wrong, considering this is all supposed to be performance-based and not "but we know he's this good".

Just put one at M8 and one at M9 so we all have EZ Clap time in Roto.

But then you look at the alternatives 

[Sumo Spiffy]

14 minutes ago, Reonito said:

But then you look at the alternatives 

I made a draft after I saw this.

Oh god.

[Tsuchinoninjin]

Sumoemon: Gotta Rank 'em All

[Chiyotasuke]

I have updated the GTB helper page. If the banzuke is still of the last basho, click Reset Changes button then refresh the page. I will try to make it update automatically in the next update. This time, I added the option to highlight the rikishi's aite upon mousing over it. Highlighted black are the ones he beat and red the ones he lost to. Dashed lines denote fusen and the outer lines for kettei-sen bouts.

The helper page

Edited March 27, 2023 by Chiyotasuke

[dingo]

16 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Hoshoryu would make it 33 wins with a zensho, so why not;

Hoshoryu 15-0Y
Wakamotoharu 13-2J
Daieisho 11-4
Kiribayama 10-5

Profit.

Seems like it's just about time for a revival of the (future) ozeki back-scratching club. How about these four get together over a few beers and karaoke and figure things out. Provided the karaoke remote controls are removed from the room beforehand. 

[maglor]

On 26/03/2023 at 11:01, Gurowake said:

Gonoyama(11-4 J6e)	J1	Shonannoumi(9-6 J3w)
Azumaryu(4-11 M11e)	J2	Tohakuryu(7-8 J1w)
Bushozan(5-10 M14w)	J3	Enho(9-6 J5w)
Oshoma(8-7 J4w)	J4	Roga(8-7 J5e)
Akua(8-7 J7e)	J5	Shimazuumi(8-7 J7w)
Hakuyozan(9-6 J9w)	J6	Tochinoshin(5-10 J2w)
Atamifuji(8-7 J8w)	J7	Churanoumi(9-6 J10w)
Takakento(10-5 J12w)	J8	Daiamami(6-9 J6w)
Ochiai(10-5 J14w)	J9	Chiyonokuni(3-12 J2e)
Chiyomaru(4-11 J4e)	J10	Kitanowaka(8-7 J11w)
Hidenoumi(6-9 J8e)	J11	Tamashoho(8-7 J13e)
Tomokaze(8-7 J13w)	J12	Chiyosakae(5-2 Ms2w)
Fujiseiun(4-3 Ms2e)	J13	Tokihayate(4-3 Ms3e)
Tsushimanada(4-11 J9e)	J14	Shimanoumi(5-10 J11e)

 

Kawazoe(4-3 Ms3w)	Ms1	Shiden(6-1 Ms6e)
Kotokuzan(4-11 J10e)	Ms2	Chiyonoumi(4-3 Ms5e)
Ryuo(7-0 Ms26e)	Ms3	Shishi(6-1 Ms12e)
Tochimusashi(4-11 J12e)	Ms4	Hayatefuji(4-3 Ms6w)
Yuma(5-2 Ms9w)	Ms5	Terutsuyoshi(3-4 Ms1w)
Mukainakano(4-3 Ms8e)	Ms6	Dewanoryu(5-2 Ms11e)
Tokushoryu(4-11 J14e)	Ms7	Tsukahara(3-5 Ms1e)
Akiseyama(4-3 Ms10e)	Ms8	Kamito(4-3 Ms10w)
Kanzaki(5-2 Ms15e)	Ms9	Nishinoryu(5-2 Ms15w)
Kaisho(3-4 Ms4w)	Ms10	Nabatame(6-1 Ms24w)
Yoshii(5-2 Ms19e)	Ms11	Miyagi(4-3 Ms14w)
Kotoozutsu(5-2 Ms20e)	Ms12	Kazekeno(4-3 Ms16w)
Ishizaki(3-4 Ms7w)	Ms13	Mineyaiba(2-5 Ms4e)
Chiyonoo(4-3 Ms17e)	Ms14	Takahashi(6-1 Ms33w)
Tochimaru(3-4 Ms9e)	Ms15	Tokunomusashi(4-3 Ms18e)

 

I didn't think Toshunryu deserved the spot there in the extended promotion zone over the last few rikishi there.  We've already seen in the past that Sd25 7-0s aren't guaranteed a spot when there are more deserving candidates.  An Sd24 7-0 really only deserves the last spot, while Tokunomusashi probably deserves to be ranked Ms14.  That said, my numbers for Makushita movements are very old and I've not really tried to update them based on things that we've seen since I computed them. 

On the topic of Sandamne yusho winners and the Makushita joi, are we to believe...

Edited March 27, 2023 by maglor

[Reonito]

This looks ... disappointing

 

[Seiyashi]

Whoever says the NSK blindly follows tradition can go stuff it. More than 50 years of precedent isn't enough and they break it twice in the same banzuke?

Kawazoe will make it to jūryō eventually, but your heart's gotta go out for Shiden. Dumpstered out of jūryō for something essentially not his fault and a near-Sisyphean record in getting back up there.

[Reonito]

4 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Whoever says the NSK blindly follows tradition can go stuff it. More than 50 years of precedent isn't enough and they break it twice in the same banzuke?

Kawazoe will make it to jūryō eventually, but your heart's gotta go out for Shiden. Dumpstered out of jūryō for something essentially not his fault and a near-Sisyphean record in getting back up there.

I gotta say @Gurowake called it.

[Seiyashi]

Yeah, but he was right for the wrong reasons. Even he admitted that those two should go down after being shown the makushita records.

[Gurowake]

I'm guessing that they didn't want to break up the pair on the bubble, and didn't want to promote Shiden because they hate him.

[Reonito]

2 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I'm guessing that they didn't want to break up the pair on the bubble, and didn't want to promote Shiden because they hate him.

They could've gone with Chiyonoumi, who was on the right side of the invisible line. I honestly didn't think the incumbents were on the bubble given that their next rank computed to J16. It's not like promoting from Ms5 is unheard of, and it doesn't require disastrous records in juryo.

[Gurowake]

4 minutes ago, Reonito said:

They could've gone with Chiyonoumi, who was on the right side of the invisible line. I honestly didn't think the incumbents were on the bubble given that their next rank computed to J16. It's not like promoting from Ms5 is unheard of, and it doesn't require disastrous records in juryo.

On the bubble just means they're one win from safety.

 

[Reonito]

3 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

On the bubble just means they're one win from safety.

 

Fair enough, though I'd be more sympathetic to J8e / J10e staying with 4 / 5 wins, respectively, than these guys.

Edited March 29, 2023 by Reonito

[Tigerboy1966]

3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

They could've gone with Chiyonoumi, who was on the right side of the invisible line. I honestly didn't think the incumbents were on the bubble given that their next rank computed to J16. It's not like promoting from Ms5 is unheard of, and it doesn't require disastrous records in juryo.

On the bubble just means they're one win from safety.

"On the bubble"... "in between success and failure in near future", "In a state of uncertainty between two possible outcomes", "finely balanced between success and failure", "sports terminology for being on the cusp of something", "occupying the last qualifying position in a team or for a tournament, and liable to be replaced".

[Seiyashi]

41 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

"On the bubble"... "in between success and failure in near future", "In a state of uncertainty between two possible outcomes", "finely balanced between success and failure", "sports terminology for being on the cusp of something", "occupying the last qualifying position in a team or for a tournament, and liable to be replaced".

Schrodinger's rikishi, whose fate will only be known after the shimpan announce the opening of the box on Wednesdays after bashos.

I'm yoinking that term for future PDY writeups, I need a catchy "trademark" of my own.

[Hakuryuho]

16 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Schrodinger's rikishi, whose fate will only be known after the shimpan announce the opening of the box on Wednesdays after bashos.

I'm yoinking that term for future PDY writeups, I need a catchy "trademark" of my own.

As you are very meticulous when it comes to the correct spelling of Japanese rikishi, you might want to use "Schrödinger's rikishi" moving forward 

[Seiyashi]

Oh, come on, I can't swap between two keyboards just to type that term....

Would Schroedinger's rikishi be an acceptable compromise? I know it's not the digraph but surely it's one step towards the correct orthography...

[Hakuryuho]

51 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Oh, come on, I can't swap between two keyboards just to type that term....

Would Schroedinger's rikishi be an acceptable compromise? I know it's not the digraph but surely it's one step towards the correct orthography...

Haha I was just messing around, I'm really not a stickler for flawless orthography, you do you