Hatsu 2023 discussion (results)

[kedevash]

My wish

Takakeisho - Wakatakakage
Kiribayama - Kotoshoho
Onosho - Wakamotoharu or Kotonowaka or Daiseisho

But yeah Takakeisho - Kotoshoho makes sense...
 

Edited January 21, 2023 by kedevash

[Hankegami]

Pairings for Day 15 out here. And yes, Kotoshoho vs. Takakeisho (0-2)  If the Hamster loses this, I would directly erase his entire Yokozuna run. No joint jun-yusho even if he gets 15-0Y in Haru. And a pay cut. And a mandatory use of Ura's mawashi for a year (unwashed). And a tax on sugar only for him.

For the other match-ups, Onosho is at a henka-risk of losing his prospected jun-yusho against Hoshoryu (as nervous as he was today, he could lose anyway). And Kiribayama will have to work for his against Ryuden. Last line, Mitoryu (6-8) has been mercilessly paired with Midorifuji (6-8): 6-9 alert incoming. He should be safe from demotion anyway.

EDIT: Getting a look down to Juryo, there are a couple of possible Makushita-Juryo exchange bouts. 3-3 Ms1 Tamashoho is against 5-9 J10w Terutsuyoshi, and 6-8 J9e Takatento is against 5-1Ms5 Tsukahara. Both are interesting also while considering the chances of Ochiai's promotion to Juryo.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Hankegami

[kedevash]

So most likely a yusho for Takakeisho without ahving to fight

The Yokozuna Terunofuji (Injured) 5-6 aginst him

Wakatakakage, n°3 in sumo right now and hard opposition 6-5

Takayasu (Injured) but always a good fight between the two. 10 - 10

Shodai, not in good form but can be a good spoiler 13-6

For 2 of these 4 he cannot do anything because they are injured BUT it makes me wonder the quality of Yusho he will maybe get tomorow.
 

[RabidJohn]

Konosuke getting bowled like that. He is surely ready for a tate-gyoji promotion!

[since_94]

In fact, the atmosphere inside the Kokugikan was so humdrum I failed, like most others in attendance it seemed, to notice that Asanoyama had clinched the Juryo yusho by the time it was all done and dusted. Again, an anticlimax.

Edited January 21, 2023 by since_94

[ryafuji]

I do enjoy the 7-7 match ups, but I feel a bit for Tsurugisho being put up against last basho's yusho winner with his kachi-koshi on the line. 

[Thorbjarn]

Matchmaking is exactly the right choice. 

As for Yokozuna, I'm quite sure Takakeisho lost the chance at getting the rope now on Thursday and I agree he has to win to keep his chances alive.

That being said, if Takakeisho wins this (not set in stone IMHO), I'm sure they would promote him with another Yusho or Jun-Yusho in Osaka, in both cases even with a 12-3 probably as long as he is in the race on senshuraku.

It would count as 2 Yusho equivalents and one Yusho over three tournaments and I can't see them passing that up. All unhatched chickens of course and I'm sure someone will have data / precedents that make my scenario look stupid. 

[Akinomaki]

Today an easy win and no bloody nose for Takakeisho, he had quite a few this basho, getting worse recently

Day 13 Onosho

o

Day 8 Nishikifuji

o

Day 7 Midorifuji

o

Day 6 Abi

o

Day 3 Daieisho

o

Day 2 Tobizaru

o

[dingo]

Onosho got a nice slap on his ass from Kiribayama for his effort 

[Jakusotsu]

1 hour ago, since_94 said:

In fact, the atmosphere inside the Kokugikan was so humdrum I failed, like most others in attendance it seemed, to notice that Asanoyama had clinched the Juryo yusho by the time it was all done and dusted. Again, an anticlimax.

What exactly did you expect? The crowd getting ecstatic after Tsurugisho's win?

[Hankegami]

1 hour ago, ryafuji said:

I do enjoy the 7-7 match ups, but I feel a bit for Tsurugisho being put up against last basho's yusho winner with his kachi-koshi on the line. 

Abi has scored 2-7 in his last nine days, and his record against Tsurugisho is - believe it or not - a 2-2 draw ATM. I actually see Tsurugisho more determined to save his noticeable longbottom than Abi to score one more win.

1 hour ago, Thorbjarn said:

Matchmaking is exactly the right choice. 

As for Yokozuna, I'm quite sure Takakeisho lost the chance at getting the rope now on Thursday and I agree he has to win to keep his chances alive.

That being said, if Takakeisho wins this (not set in stone IMHO), I'm sure they would promote him with another Yusho or Jun-Yusho in Osaka, in both cases even with a 12-3 probably as long as he is in the race on senshuraku.

It would count as 2 Yusho equivalents and one Yusho over three tournaments and I can't see them passing that up. All unhatched chickens of course and I'm sure someone will have data / precedents that make my scenario look stupid. 

And unprecedented it would be. No Yokozuna was promoted after a 24/30 result, aside from two very specific cases: Tamanoumi (13-2Y 10-5 13-2D) and Kashiwado (11-4 12-3D). In both cases, the recipient was refused a regular promotion shortly before, and they were promoted after a playoff against another Yokozuna hopeful promoted with them as a result (Kitanofuji and Taiho respectively). So they constitute total exceptions and must be framed within their specific cases.

Anyway, since the beginning of the 15-day basho era (1939-1944, 1949-present), no Yokozuna was promoted "by the numbers" with less than 25/30, and last time occurred in 1987 (Hokutoumi 12-3Y 13-2J). Results for three-basho runs are not different. The lowest score is 39/45 (Takanosato in 1983, and Sadanoyama in 1965), while Takakeisho would go 36/45 with three 12-3 in a row. IMHO Takakeisho will be required either to land a 13-2Y or a 14-1J in Haru. A 12-3Y would perhaps cause some discussion, but another 12-3J would be no different than tomorrow's most expected result.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Hankegami

[since_94]

33 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

What exactly did you expect? The crowd getting ecstatic after Tsurugisho's win?

Point taken, but I was in there all day, watching from Sandanme onward. It was just a low energy crowd overall, compared to other days, for whatever reason. Surprising for a Saturday crowd that was 95% full house. People are only slowly learning how to be raucous again, after the lifting of all (or most of) the restrictions. Anyway, it was a mathematical elimination, which is always anticlimactic. On day 13, in contrast, when Ochiai won the makushita yusho in convincing style in a do or die bout, there was an electric buzz that filled the place. Everyone knew what was going on because the ring announcer introduced the bout by saying it would decide the yusho winner. Different circumstances, I know.

Edited January 21, 2023 by since_94

[Jakusotsu]

2 minutes ago, since_94 said:

It was just a low energy crowd overall, compared to other days, for whatever reason.

And many of today's matches were . . . strange, to say the least. Enho playing the clown twice, and Mitoryu enacting a new kind of stalemate, to name a few.

[since_94]

 

2 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

And many of today's matches were . . . strange, to say the least. Enho playing the clown twice, and Mitoryu enacting a new kind of stalemate, to name a few.

Today was, for want of a better word, lame, all around. Tomorrow, however, offers the promise of fireworks galore and should more than make up for it. We hope. We’re getting one playoff for sure. And the mosubi no ichiban will be the ultimate arbiter.

[Yubinhaad]

For the first time in the 15-day basho era there are no bouts between sanyaku rikishi on senshuraku, everyone's facing a Maegashira opponent.

[Seiyashi]

The only thing I'd add to the discussion on Takakeishō's rope prospects is that while he's almost certainly not going to get a rope from this basho's results, he's building a fairly nice background which might sway any borderline decision down the road. He's now gone DD KK in the last four basho and has had 3 yūshō honours from them, since he's guaranteed minimum J tomorrow. A few more basho worth of those results, perhaps with a 13-2 for good measure, and he might just get the rope with even a softish D/Y or J/Y later on.

[Hankegami]

23 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

The only thing I'd add to the discussion on Takakeishō's rope prospects is that while he's almost certainly not going to get a rope from this basho's results, he's building a fairly nice background which might sway any borderline decision down the road. He's now gone DD KK in the last four basho and has had 3 yūshō honours from them, since he's guaranteed minimum J tomorrow. A few more basho worth of those results, perhaps with a 13-2 for good measure, and he might just get the rope with even a softish D/Y or J/Y later on.

For me, a 13-2Y in Haru would seal the deal - if he wins tomorrow, that is. Sure, it's still 25/30 but that's at least a back-to-back yusho with a decent total. Also, if he manages to get a 13-2 he's also going to get the Yusho anyway - last time the result was higher was Terunofuji's zensho in Kyushu 2021, and the last actual 14-1Y was - I believe - Tokushoryu's in Hatsu 2020.

Takakeisho is certainly building his run at an ideal time. I think it's unlikely that Terunofuji will come back for Haru, and the chances for Asanoyama to be immediately promoted are getting thinner (although I wrote elsewhere that his eventual promotion would certainly improve the level of today's Maakuchi). Young blood like Kinbozan and Hokuseiko are unlikely to shake things up in their very first Maakuchi basho, so the joy will remain pretty much the same than in Hatsu. All Takakeisho needs to do is not to mess things up (like he almost did - and can still do - in this tournament).

Edited January 21, 2023 by Hankegami

[Gurowake]

Well, it's nice to see that the yusho will be decided in the last bout of the basho, even if one of the participants is from the lower half of the division.

[Gurowake]

I'm definitely very happy that Shonannoumi has done very well this basho and looks to be secure in his place in Juryo for now, if not aiming for Makuuchi within the year.  Given how long it took him to get to Juryo - basically the entire time I've been following sumo - I half-expected it to be a one-basho stay like Oki.  I probably shouldn't be too surprised because he's still fairly young and should have a few more years before he reaches his peak potential, but I've just been used to disappointment among the lower-division rikishi I've followed.

[Seiyashi]

22 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

For me, a 13-2Y in Haru would seal the deal. Sure, it's still 25/30 but that's at least a back-to-back yusho with a decent total. Also, if he manages to get a 13-2 he's also going to get the Yusho anyway - last time the result was higher was Terunofuji's zensho in Kyushu 2021, and the last actual 14-1Y was - I believe - Tokushoryu's in Hatsu 2020.

Takakeisho is certainly building his run at an ideal time. I think it's unlikely that Terunofuji will come back for Haru, and the chances for Asanoyama to be immediately promoted are getting thinner (although I wrote elsewhere that his eventual promotion would certainly improve the level of today's Maakuchi). Young blood like Kinbozan and Hokuseiko are unlikely to shake things up in their very first Maakuchi basho, so the joy will remain pretty much the same than in Hatsu. All Takakeisho needs to do is not to mess things up (like he almost did - and can still do - in this tournament).

The main problem with only a 13-2 Y is that no yokozuna since Hokutoumi (i.e. post Futahaguro) has been promoted with 13-2 being their max score (see: 

The 12-3s Takakeishō has been building needs to show that he's capable of those as a baseline, with the ability to "burst" to a 13-2 or 14-1 when hot. The last yokozuna to get a softish promotion, Kisenosato, had something like a year's worth of 13-2s and 12-3s before finally making it. At the time I did the above study, Takakeishō's proportion of win records looked worse than Terunofuji's and he doesn't have medical excuses. It's undoubtedly improved since then but he's not managed to achieve his max limit of 13-2 since, which is IMO going to be a serious weakness in his promotion case. Takakeishō is on the wrong side of the "great ōzeki/bad yokozuna" divide that I think we all agree Kisenosato managed to pass.

This sort of ties in with my response to your next point, which is my take on the usual "is it easier to get promoted with a weaker field or not". I think it's not helping Takakeishō that he can't achieve a dominating result with an ostensibly weak field. This would have been a great/easier time to pull a Kakuryū and go 2x14-1 for the rope. Getting slapped with 12-3s or 13-2s with 2-3 strong yokozuna on the banzuke doesn't look terrible, but being able to hit only 12-3 when you're the top rikishi with no one supposedly near your level is. If Takakeishō can maintain the same record with threats in the shape of ōzeki Asanoyama, Hōshōryū, or Ochiai, then maybe that's a different story, but at least to me it doesn't look like Takakeishō is taking, or can take, full advantage of any benefit this depleted field is supposedly giving him. At the rate he's going, I wouldn't be surprised if Takakeishō is the next yokozuna to get his rope after repeated playoff contests like Kashiwadō or Tamanoumi with a background of good DD KKs.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Octofuji]

I seem to be in a minority but I thought it was a fantastic round of matches today, probably the best day of the basho.

I was surprised by how easily Tsurugisho dealt with Kinbozan. You could argue Tsurugisho had more to fight for but it didn't look like that from the expression on  Kinbozan's face afterwards.

[maorencze]

Two yusho is two yusho, is two yusho, is two yusho, or is it not? If Takakeisho goes D-Y-Y, how could they justify denying him promotion, number of wins be damned? Makes no sense, really, "back-to-back yusho or equivalent", in case of D-Y-Y its back-to-back-to-back, so...like, really, what more?

[Seiyashi]

49 minutes ago, maorencze said:

Two yusho is two yusho, is two yusho, is two yusho, or is it not? If Takakeisho goes D-Y-Y, how could they justify denying him promotion, number of wins be damned? Makes no sense, really, "back-to-back yusho or equivalent", in case of D-Y-Y its back-to-back-to-back, so...like, really, what more?

Well, for starters, he needs to actually win tomorrow first. 

It's true two yūshō is two yūshō, but 25/30 is either the or one of the weakest promotions, and if I read Wikipedia correctly for a quick refresher, it leaves enough wiggle room for the NSK and YDC to debate if the yokozuna candidate in his two yūshō has, among other things, disclosed any vulnerabilities. No doubt more veteran observers will know better but I interpret that to mean that a weak enough looking 13-2, or worse, another 12-3, will still screw him over.

It's also a rather dated precedent but Chiyonoyama was denied promotion after back to back yūshō, with a 13-2Y then a 12-3Y. The reason given then was his age (24), and it was also the YDC's first candidate, but it shows that there can be factors that would militate against two yūshō in a row.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Akinomaki]

Sadogatake confirmed that he won't call for a discussion of the yokozuna promotion in the shimpan department in case of a yusho tomorrow, which would be necessary to start the process and promote him this time.

Tospo reports that in case of a failure the yokozuna run has to restart from zero, with a yusho Takakeisho will challenge for yokozuna again next basho http://www.tokyo-sports.co.jp/articles/-/251659

With 2 yusho in a row, regardless of the quality, the YDC would be obliged to condone a promotion, the NSK normally follows their proposal. 12-3Y and then 13-2Y after a 12-3D would certainly be enough for a promotion, probably even two 12-3 yusho, fitting of the less than mediocre quality of sumo in the last years.

[Yamanashi]

Takakeisho may make it in under the Kisenosato protocol: a "body of work" that shows dominance or near-dominance -- or maybe not-dominance.

Kisenosato's last two basho were 12-3 J and 14-1 Y, with 48/60 over the previous 4 basho and 3 Jun-Yusho.  The 12-3 J isn't as good as it looks, because Kakuryu scored 14-1 Y.

Takakeisho would have 12-3 D and 12-3 Y, with a D versus a J and a decidedly less impressive Yusho.  His previous four basho were 37/60 with one J (nice Ozeki sumo, but only in the last two years does that look impressive).

EDIT: I finished this just after the above post confirming that Takakeisho won't make it.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Yamanashi