Hatsu 2023 discussion (results)

[Reonito]

4 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

2) Somehow, Tobizaru made it from J14 to K1 with a 43% KK rate!  Does this suggest that the Promotion/Demotion system is a little nonlinear?]

I think we've discussed this before, but for a variety of reasons most banzuke tend to be "lucky" and positive records result in larger promotions than the demotions for the corresponding "mirror" records. If you look at Tobizaru in makuuchi, from when he started at M14, we have 11-4 +10, 6-9 –3, 6-9 –1, 10-5 +6, 5-10 –1, 4-11 –5, 7-8 (0), 7-8 (0), 6-9 –1, 9-6 +4, 7-8 –1, 8-7 +5, then he went 10-5 at M1 and got to K. Aside from that last promotion by 1 rank for a +5 win differential, his 4 KK basho with a +16 win differential resulted in 25 ranks of upward movement, while 8 MK basho with a –24 win differential resulted in only 12 ranks of downward movement.

[Koorifuu]

Kyujo got to be the most impactful source of imbalance, moreso than luck; it means that the win averages are always going to be lower than 7.5 and therefore everyone who stays throughout is rewarded extra.

[Yamanashi]

19 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I think we've discussed this before, but for a variety of reasons most banzuke tend to be "lucky" and positive records result in larger promotions than the demotions for the corresponding "mirror" records. If you look at Tobizaru in makuuchi, from when he started at M14, we have 11-4 +10, 6-9 –3, 6-9 –1, 10-5 +6, 5-10 –1, 4-11 –5, 7-8 (0), 7-8 (0), 6-9 –1, 9-6 +4, 7-8 –1, 8-7 +5, then he went 10-5 at M1 and got to K. Aside from that last promotion by 1 rank for a +5 win differential, his 4 KK basho with a +16 win differential resulted in 25 ranks of upward movement, while 8 MK basho with a –24 win differential resulted in only 12 ranks of downward movement.

Yeah, of course, you're right about the basho-by-basho calculus and the cumulative effect.  But every primer on Sumo oversimplifies it so much ("KK = move up, MK = move down") that Tobizaru's case really stood out: 29 basho as a sekitori, a record of 223-218-2, and gets to Komusubi from the bottom of Juryo.

Edit: I just saw @Koorifuu's post.  Tobizaru only had one kyujo, last July, and he got a KK (8-5-2)!

Edited January 16, 2023 by Yamanashi
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[Eikokurai]

What’s up with Terutsuyoshi? 0-15 last time around in Makuuchi and now 1-7 at J10. Makushita bound if this continues. 

[Yamanashi]

6 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

What’s up with Terutsuyoshi? 0-15 last time around in Makuuchi and now 1-7 at J10. Makushita bound if this continues. 

It is weird.  Remember the strange vibe when Kotoshoho collapsed at the beginning of 2021?  Sort of like that.

Since he peaked at M3 in 9/2020, Terutsuyashi has been on a long, slow slide (84-111).  Whatever scandal or non-scandal caused this, the poor guy is headed to nowhere fast.

[Reonito]

29 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

Kyujo got to be the most impactful source of imbalance, moreso than luck; it means that the win averages are always going to be lower than 7.5 and therefore everyone who stays throughout is rewarded extra.

That's part of what I mean by "luck"—more positive movements than the numbers would suggest. I think @Sumo Spiffy had a whole video breakdown of all the sources.

[Yarimotsu]

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

What’s up with Terutsuyoshi? 0-15 last time around in Makuuchi and now 1-7 at J10. Makushita bound if this continues. 

Poor management of diabetes, as reported elsewhere on this forum. From what I understand of the condition it's very hard to do anything much with muscles when you're struck down with it. He looks like he's pulling all the right moves but with half the force of before. 

[Yarimotsu]

A lot of people making noise about Hoshoryu moving sideways against a weaker opponent, but I do think it bears mentioning exactly who that opponent is. You can go and watch Sadanoumi's recent wins - he charges low and hard and pushes out like lightning from the tachiai. I admire his powerful sumo, but there's little consideration for anything else. Sadanoumi's technique works pretty flawlessly against anyone under 155kg unless they put some lateral movement in. You are of course all welcome to your opinions about henka and whether upper ranks should even consider that strategy - but I'd definitely argue that if you're going to henka someone, please make it this guy. 

[Reonito]

31 minutes ago, Yarimotsu said:

A lot of people making noise about Hoshoryu moving sideways against a weaker opponent, but I do think it bears mentioning exactly who that opponent is. You can go and watch Sadanoumi's recent wins - he charges low and hard and pushes out like lightning from the tachiai. I admire his powerful sumo, but there's little consideration for anything else. Sadanoumi's technique works pretty flawlessly against anyone under 155kg unless they put some lateral movement in. You are of course all welcome to your opinions about henka and whether upper ranks should even consider that strategy - but I'd definitely argue that if you're going to henka someone, please make it this guy. 

Exactly!

[Eikokurai]

2 hours ago, Yarimotsu said:

Poor management of diabetes, as reported elsewhere on this forum. From what I understand of the condition it's very hard to do anything much with muscles when you're struck down with it. He looks like he's pulling all the right moves but with half the force of before. 

Sad. Sounds like a career-ender, tbh. If he’s weak enough to fall two whole divisions in two basho, how does he come back?

[Tochinofuji]

2 hours ago, Yarimotsu said:

A lot of people making noise about Hoshoryu moving sideways against a weaker opponent, but I do think it bears mentioning exactly who that opponent is. You can go and watch Sadanoumi's recent wins - he charges low and hard and pushes out like lightning from the tachiai. I admire his powerful sumo, but there's little consideration for anything else. Sadanoumi's technique works pretty flawlessly against anyone under 155kg unless they put some lateral movement in. You are of course all welcome to your opinions about henka and whether upper ranks should even consider that strategy - but I'd definitely argue that if you're going to henka someone, please make it this guy. 

To me, that's also kind of the point. My impression of the man is that Sadanoumi is going to hit hard at the tachiai, and move to grip up or at least go chest to chest. If you're going to swagger like you're the baddest guy on the belt in the division, I'd expect you to be straight up in taking on someone looking to play near enough the same game as you. Henkaing against someone like Daieisho or Onosho, whose whole game is based on denying you your main weapons makes more sense. Ducking out of what was likely to be a yotsu battle? Just seems weaksauce to me. But at any rate, I have my biases and our likely next ozeki is clearly better off without my thoughts on the matter - he knows what he's about, there's no denying that, and even if I don't like his persona much in general his sumo is usually fantastic to watch.  

[since_94]

Enho very darn lucky to not come away from his Day 9 match against Akua with a broken neck. That’s not a spoiler, is it?

[Chartorenji]

4 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Sad. Sounds like a career-ender, tbh. If he’s weak enough to fall two whole divisions in two basho, how does he come back?

does he have an open Stock available for him? Or at least someone willing to step aside for a min and loan something else. 

Edited January 16, 2023 by Chartorenji

[dingo]

4 hours ago, Tochinofuji said:

To me, that's also kind of the point. My impression of the man is that Sadanoumi is going to hit hard at the tachiai, and move to grip up or at least go chest to chest. If you're going to swagger like you're the baddest guy on the belt in the division, I'd expect you to be straight up in taking on someone looking to play near enough the same game as you. Henkaing against someone like Daieisho or Onosho, whose whole game is based on denying you your main weapons makes more sense. Ducking out of what was likely to be a yotsu battle? Just seems weaksauce to me. But at any rate, I have my biases and our likely next ozeki is clearly better off without my thoughts on the matter - he knows what he's about, there's no denying that, and even if I don't like his persona much in general his sumo is usually fantastic to watch.  

My thoughts exactly, couldn't have put it better. 

[Chartorenji]

shittttt Hoshoryu is hurt

[Kaninoyama]

Abi has completely lost the plot with his fourth loss in a row. Midorifuji, meanwhile, continues to impress.

With Hoshoryu possibly injured, the basho appears to be Takakeisho's to lose. 

[nagora]

The wind was from the west today.

[Godango]

Far out man. I swear, I'm not allowed to have favourites.

If it's a nasty ankle sprain for Hoshoryu (as it appeared to be), I hope he sits out rather than exacerbating it. I'd rather see him take another year to reach ozeki than not see him make it at all.

[kedevash]

1 minute ago, Godango said:

If it's a nasty ankle sprain for Hoshoryu (as it appeared to be), I hope he sits out rather than exacerbating it. I'd rather see him take another year to reach ozeki than not see him make it at all.

Totally agree. The "you heal on the dohyo" is a thing of the past i hope.... But i don't see him going kyujo if he can walk. Like you, i hope if the sprain is to important, that he sits the remainder of the basho. Live to fight another day !

[kedevash]

Takakeisho now has the door wide open to win the yusho. I only see Onosho or Daieisho as contender. But he will become Yokozuna not only if he wins the yusho but he has to win it with a 14-1 or 13-2 i think. With maybe Hoshoryu out, or at least diminish, he has one less hurdle to reach his goal.

[Hankegami]

7 minutes ago, Godango said:

If it's a nasty ankle sprain for Hoshoryu (as it appeared to be), I hope he sits out rather than exacerbating it. I'd rather see him take another year to reach ozeki than not see him make it at all.

Tomorrow he's paired against Kiribayama, a guy he cannot win against with a sprain do deal with (barring another henka). However, he neither can go kyujo at 6-3 with the perspective to finish 6-4-5 and potentially even get kicked down to M1w. A middle solution could be to sit out at least for the day and come back afterwards to rack up two more wins to keep his Sekiwake rank. I don't know whether Hoshoryu himself is ok with such a "weak guy" strategy though.

1 minute ago, kedevash said:

Takakeisho now has the door wide open to win the yusho. I only see Onosho or Daieisho as contender. But he will become Yokozuna not only if he wins the yusho but he has to win it with a 14-1 or 13-2 i think. With maybe Hoshoryu out, or at least diminish, he has one less hurdle to reach his goal.

If Hoshoryu is really out of contention I cannot see how on earth Takakeisho is going to get the rope with a 13-2Y. He already dropped one against Tobizaru (not exactly Hakuho), and with the arasoi now filled with hiramaku guys I think the YDC wouldn't accept anything less than a 14-1Y. Which also bodes better with the most recent precedents in matter of Yokozuna promotions anyway.

[Godango]

I know I'm repeating myself here; but Takakeisho being a yusho favourite is still good news for his yusho hopes.

A 12-3Y or 13-2 Y  here, followed by another 12-3D or better in March would be a virtual lock based on the Kisenosato precedent, imo.

[Morty]

6 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

If Hoshoryu is really out of contention I cannot see how on earth Takakeisho is going to get the rope with a 13-2Y. He already dropped one against Tobizaru (not exactly Hakuho), and with the arasoi now filled with hiramaku guys I think the YDC wouldn't accept anything less than a 14-1Y. Which also bodes better with the most recent precedents in matter of Yokozuna promotions anyway.

 

2 minutes ago, Godango said:

I know I'm repeating myself here; but Takakeisho being a yusho favourite is still good news for his yusho hopes.

A 12-3Y or 13-2 Y  here, followed by another 12-3D or better in March would be a virtual lock based on the Kisenosato precedent, imo.

I think he's a shoe-in with anything more than 13. The Kise precedent is irrelevant here because last basho was a doten, which is a yusho-equivalent, not coming second like a normal J-Y. If he wins here that's two yushos in a row and he has the runs on the board to prove he can keep doing it. Two yushos and 3 doten, plus another 5 J-Y is a solid record. 

[Godango]

30 minutes ago, Morty said:

 

I think he's a shoe-in with anything more than 13. The Kise precedent is irrelevant here because last basho was a doten, which is a yusho-equivalent, not coming second like a normal J-Y. If he wins here that's two yushos in a row and he has the runs on the board to prove he can keep doing it. Two yushos and 3 doten, plus another 5 J-Y is a solid record. 

Yeah I personally wouldn't be opposed to promotion with any yusho, just putting my YDC hat on.

[dingo]

Ura gently fanning down stumbling Nishikifuji is the funniest thing I've seen this basho. Even Ura himself was smiling when he squatted down as the Victor. 

I was getting on Hoshoryuu's case yesterday for that HNH on Satonofuji, but I couldn't help but enjoy Midorifuji's henka on Abi. With his wrestling style Abi has got to expect it time to time.

I've been meaning to comment on Mitakeumi for a few days. This basho usually his first five seconds seem like the old Mitakeumi -- good tachiai, driving the opponent back and almost out. Yet he always runs out of steam at the crucial moment and loses soon after. Seems like he is getting a bit better, but still far away from the sumo that took him to ozeki. Today was a bit better though, he managed to follow thorough on Meisei.

And Shodai... a bit late to the party, isn't he?