Kyushu 2022 discussion (results)

[Akinomaki]

9 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

"I will explain this discussion. The gyoji's gumbai was in favor of Nishikigi, but it looked like Nishikigi's falling and Takarafuji's flying out happened at the same time, so a monoii was called and after a discussion, Takarafuji's body was out first, so it's gyoji gumbaidori and a win for Nishikigi.."

The top of Nishikigi's foot was out years before Takarafuji started flying.The thing is, it seems they never call that anymore, as if the top part of the foot touching is now OK for some reason. You can see it very clearly in the photo below. Top of the foot touches first.

About the same happened on day 3 and same head shimpan Fujishima called it a torinaoshi then, telling the top of the foot of Onosho touched at the same time as Kotoeko jumped out.

[Hankegami]

Day 7 on the bag and, man, a couple things I wrote for Day 6 didn't age well.

I mean Wakatakakage and Mitakeumi, both losing approachable matches. Wakatakakage was sent out by an ever-surprising Tobizaru, against whom he had a 7-4 record (now 7-5). Mitakeumi lost to Kiribayama, also looking good but again it was supposed to be a balanced match (6-6 on record, now 6-7). But the worst part is that them both closed day 7 with a 4-3, good if you are looking for a KK, bad if you aim to 10-5 or better. Mitakeumi has higher stakes than Wakatakakage since he would lose his privilege to get back to Ozeki, but Wakatakakage himself should better not to waste everything good he built with his previous 11-4 unless he wants to be the next Mitakeumi. Now they'd better lose no more than two matches in the second week - the week they rank up, that is. This means getting over Yusho hopeful Hoshoryu, kadoban endangered (and dangerous) Shodai, everything hopeful Takakeisho, and each other. Losing that 'pillow point' really changed my perspectives.

Back to the arasoi, Hoshoryu and Takayasu appear to know how not to sink a run on the first week, maintaining their lead to 6-1. Takakeisho keeps doing the stand-in Yokozuna by chasing the two with a 5-2 despite his cupping marks. Part of me is now hoping for a Takakeisho Yusho just to have him to complete a Yokozuna run in January and get someone regularly breathing on the necks of basho front-runners. Just part of me, though. Kiribayama is also looking good, perhaps partly for Mitakeumi's fault but a 5-2 on Day 7 is not half bad.

Well, tomorrow I will see how many of my considerations for today survived past Day 8.

Edited November 19, 2022 by Hankegami

[Kaito]

If the next Ozeki is just Takayasu again, I'm fine with that.

[Morty]

Takakeisho basically catching Midorifuji in mid-air mid-henka and just shoving him out was beautiful to watch.

And Hoshoryu looks switched on.

[hakutorizakura]

Mitakeumi looks like a good candidate for a long-term sekiwake. He might make ozeki someday, who knows. 

[Seiyashi]

2 hours ago, Morty said:

Takakeisho basically catching Midorifuji in mid-air mid-henka and just shoving him out was beautiful to watch.

And Hoshoryu looks switched on.

Midorifuji's sheepish expression at the end of the bout was particularly hilarious. I laughed out loud when his gambit so obviously failed in the middle of the bout.

If Hōshōryū ends with double digits and doesn't get the ginoshō he's been robbed. He easily has the most aesthetically pleasing sumo this basho.

4 hours ago, Kaito said:

If the next Ozeki is just Takayasu again, I'm fine with that.

How do we feel about the hypothetical possibility of Takayasu going 11+ in this and next basho, and getting promoted to ōzeki from komusubi, without having been sekiwake first? Between 3 sekiwake and 4 komusubi, it really doesn't look like there's going to be a sekiwake slot open for Takayasu this time round, and the best he can do next basho is most likely komusubi unless all sanyaku incumbents collapse in the last week.

Or do we think a 11-10-11-10 ending at sekiwake, like Asanoyama's case, will see him repromoted for Natsu rather than Haru?

Edited November 19, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Gospodin]

3 hours ago, Morty said:

Takakeisho basically catching Midorifuji in mid-air mid-henka and just shoving him out was beautiful to watch.

 

Takakeisho read it, but I am wondering why Midorifuji tried to pull Takakeisho with his right hand towards him, and not away with his left. 

[ryafuji]

47 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

How do we feel about the hypothetical possibility of Takayasu going 11+ in this and next basho, and getting promoted to ōzeki from komusubi, without having been sekiwake first? Between 3 sekiwake and 4 komusubi, it really doesn't look like there's going to be a sekiwake slot open for Takayasu this time round, and the best he can do next basho is most likely komusubi unless all sanyaku incumbents collapse in the last week.

Or do we think a 11-10-11-10 ending at sekiwake, like Asanoyama's case, will see him repromoted for Natsu rather than Haru?

I thought it was literally impossible to get promoted from komusubi to ōzeki. At least in the six tournaments a year era.  I don't think they would even entertain the possibility. 

[Bakayokozuna]

Osanai with a 5minutes bout just few days after another super long one (like 4minutes30 that first one was ?  Cant remember exactly)

I wonder what would be the record of the longer time spent in the dohyo in a single basho. You would need two record tho. One for sekitori and one for the rest.

[Gurowake]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

How do we feel about the hypothetical possibility of Takayasu going 11+ in this and next basho, and getting promoted to ōzeki from komusubi

His 11-4 at M4 counts for nothing, not having faced 4 of the sanyaku he could have.  While it's true he mostly avoided them because they were doing awful and he was doing well, generally you need to have a schedule that's equivalent to a sanyaku schedule to have it count towards Ozeki.  Tochinoshin's M3w Yusho is a different sort of thing, and he had enough wins over the next two tournaments to only need the M3 tournament to count for 10 wins, which is reasonable given he actually got 14, and he also faced all the sanyaku he possibly could have.

[Akinomaki]

Today had the man-in onrei banners down after 4 basho again, close to 90% full, 6244 of the 6976 spectator capacity. Last time was day 15 of the Haru basho, the last time without limitation of spectator numbers was day 15 of Hatsu 2020

o

[Yamanashi]

5 hours ago, Morty said:

Takakeisho basically catching Midorifuji in mid-air mid-henka and just shoving him out was beautiful to watch.

I'm not sure Midorifuji could have run out of the ring any faster than Takakeisho pushed him out.  Whatever the strategy was, I'd say it was easily refuted.

[Rocks]

4 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

I'm not sure Midorifuji could have run out of the ring any faster than Takakeisho pushed him out.  Whatever the strategy was, I'd say it was easily refuted.

I'd say his strategy was 'I'm too light to survive a push from Takakeisho, so avoid it. Taka is easy to push out from behind so I will get there somehow." 

It failed miseerably. 

[Yamanashi]

Chiyonokuni, now 5-2, looked very good again in toppling Tsurugisho from the unbeaten ranks.  No sign of knee issues; in close at first, then a tsuppari attack followed by an (inadvertent) katasukashi as Tsurugisho lurched forward.  He looks upbeat for a change.

[Yubinhaad]

Does Japan have some alternative April Fool's day in November that I'm not aware of? Or is Chiyotairyu actually handing in his retirement papers, not staying in the Kyokai and planning to open a restaurant in Tokyo?! 

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/214990

[Rocks]

8 minutes ago, Yubinhaad said:

Does Japan have some alternative April Fool's day in November that I'm not aware of? Or is Chiyotairyu actually handing in his retirement papers, not staying in the Kyokai and planning to open a restaurant in Tokyo?! 

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/214990

Holy cow.

He doesn't seem injured. Even if he wanted to retire why not finish out their basho?

Edited November 19, 2022 by Rocks

[Rocks]

14 minutes ago, Yubinhaad said:

Does Japan have some alternative April Fool's day in November that I'm not aware of? Or is Chiyotairyu actually handing in his retirement papers, not staying in the Kyokai and planning to open a restaurant in Tokyo?! 

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/214990

It's on Yahoo Japan too

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/6bbab0cc2a9ccd99a27428f56de0a41fdfce43d5

[Seiyashi]

He's only had 2 KK in the past two years and his past two basho were 6-9. He's now 2-5, so after his loss today he might have just felt he's definitely out of gas.

What's more interesting is that, if the report is true, he's eliminated as the mystery owner of Sanoyama.

Edited November 19, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Yamanashi]

Once again, the only thing more astonishing than Ridiculous Predictions is Real Life.

If the battle for ownership of Sanoyama is up for grabs between Chiyomaru and Chiyonokuni, it explains the latter's beast mode this basho -- he's interviewing for the job.

[Reonito]

7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Midorifuji's sheepish expression at the end of the bout was particularly hilarious. I laughed out loud when his gambit so obviously failed in the middle of the bout.

If Hōshōryū ends with double digits and doesn't get the ginoshō he's been robbed. He easily has the most aesthetically pleasing sumo this basho.

How do we feel about the hypothetical possibility of Takayasu going 11+ in this and next basho, and getting promoted to ōzeki from komusubi, without having been sekiwake first? Between 3 sekiwake and 4 komusubi, it really doesn't look like there's going to be a sekiwake slot open for Takayasu this time round, and the best he can do next basho is most likely komusubi unless all sanyaku incumbents collapse in the last week.

Or do we think a 11-10-11-10 ending at sekiwake, like Asanoyama's case, will see him repromoted for Natsu rather than Haru?

I don't think K -> O is possible; don't know if that's an absolute rule, but it's never happened, though I suppose there have only been a couple of plausible instances where it could have.

[Yokozuna Hattorizakura]

Bit late, but glad i'm not the only one who's been impressed lately with Setonoumi. he has really recovered from his sandanme slump. Also looking like quite a strong makushita race, it's a shame asa is pretty much guaranteed to win it.

Also, perhaps the chiyotairyu discussion should be moved to it's own thread?

 

[Gurowake]

6 minutes ago, Yokozuna Hattorizakura said:

it's a shame asa is pretty much guaranteed to win it.

Just like he was guaranteed to win last basho?  I don't expect him to lose, but I won't be too surprised if he takes one loss.  More than one loss would be a major surprise though.

[Bakayokozuna]

No surprise here but KK just secured for Kyokutaisei ! I like how he stay soft with the young guys with gentle pushes, its cute 

I guess a bout vs Takerufuji would be the best challenge he can get for this basho

Edited November 20, 2022 by Bakayokozuna

[Koorifuu]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

I don't think K -> O is possible; don't know if that's an absolute rule, but it's never happened, though I suppose there have only been a couple of plausible instances where it could have.

That's because neither was seriously considered to be on an ozeki run when the sudden komusubi yusho came around. The committee will absolutely force a sekiwake slot for anybody who has a legitimate shot after two basho.

[maglor]

Given how packed the sanyaku is plus the banzuke committee's dislike of creating new sanyaku spots, it's actually much less unlikely now.

To use Takayasu as an example here, let's say he goes 13-2Y. We have mountains of precedent that he will only be moved to Komusubi as long as the Sekiwake spots stay full.

Then a 10-5 next basho shouldn't be strong enough to force another Sekiwake spot as long as they're still full(Hoshoryu promotion was COVID shenanigans, otherwise it's usually 11 to force).

So in this hypothetical Takayasu would have 23 wins over 2 basho and still be at Komusubi. What happens if he puts up another big score?

 

Not that I'm saying I expect Takayasu to do this, but the way the committee has treated opening new Sekiwake spots it's absolutely possible for a M1 to put up 23+ wins in 2 basho and still be at Komusubi for the 3rd.