Measuring Ōzeki Quality

[Reonito]

20 minutes ago, Godango said:

I'd be really interested in this as an exercise in measuring Yokozuna quality (how many more times would they have been promoted?). Would you mind if I stole your idea?

Not at all! Sort of like asking how often an Ozeki made another run that would have gotten them promoted.

[Reonito]

13 minutes ago, Ripe said:

Problem is that prior to 2014, playoff losses or jun-yusho didn't matter... it was yusho and only yusho. So I'm not sure how you can classify something as "close" when there is no chance of them being promoted. When there is probably not even a discussion if they are worthy of promotion.

I mean, if YY is the only criterion, then there is no "close"—you either met it or you didn't. But then you have no useful way of distinguishing those Ozeki who on multiple occasions might have earned promotion with another win or two from those who were never in striking distance, which was my intention here, in a thread devoted to measuring the quality of Ozeki who never became Yokozuna. I'll just leave it here.

[Reonito]

On 13/06/2022 at 14:20, Godango said:

I'd be really interested in this as an exercise in measuring Yokozuna quality (how many more times would they have been promoted?). Would you mind if I stole your idea?

My curiosity got the better of me. Of the 11 Yokozuna who debuted since 1990, seven would have been promoted again by winning back-to-back yusho. Hakuho did it a whopping 21 times (counting overlapping yusho pairs as separate instances), Asashoryu 12, Takanohana 7, Akebono and Musashimaru twice, and Kakuryu and Terunofuji (so far) once. Asahifuji, Wakanohana, Harumafuji, and (obviously) Kisenosato never managed it. If we count "close" as 12+ wins in back-to-back basho, we get Hakuho 44 times, Takanohana 19, Asashoryu 16, Akebono 12, Musashimaru 6. These are clearly the recent standouts. Harumafuji gets on the board with 2 instances, and Asahifuji with one.

[Godango]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

My curiosity got the better of me. Of the 11 Yokozuna who debuted since 1990, seven would have been promoted again by winning back-to-back yusho. Hakuho did it a whopping 21 times (counting overlapping yusho pairs as separate instances), Asashoryu 12, Takanohana 7, Akebono and Musashimaru twice, and Kakuryu and Terunofuji (so far) once. Asahifuji, Wakanohana, Harumafuji, and (obviously) Kisenosato never managed it. If we count "close" as 12+ wins in back-to-back basho, we get Hakuho 44 times, Takanohana 19, Asashoryu 16, Akebono 12, Musashimaru 6. These are clearly the recent standouts. Harumafuji gets on the board with 2 instances, and Asahifuji with one.

Nice, time got away from me but this is good to know.

When Terunofuji was up for promotion I posted a thread looking into his and Takakeisho's prospects and what it would take to get them across the line. At the time I looked into all post-Futahaguro promotions in order to get a 'definitive' idea of promotion thresholds. It was then pointed out that I should look into Asahifuji and onwards, as he was the first Yokozuna promoted after the intai of Futahaguro, which is the more relevant point in time.

If we look at that, the following criteria have resulted in Yokozuna:

• Asahifuji: 14-1Y + 14-1 Y = 28 wins, 2 Yusho
• Akebono: 14-1 Y + 13-2 Y = 27 wins, 2 Yusho
• Takanohana: 15-0 Y + 15-0 Y = 30 wins, 2 Yusho
• Wakanohana: 14-1 Y + 12-3 Y = 26 wins, 2 Yusho
• Musashimaru: 13-2 Y + 13-2 Y = 26 wins, 2 Yusho
• Asashoryu: 14-1Y + 14-1 Y = 28 wins, 2 Yusho
• Hakuho: 13-2Y + 15-0 Y = 28 wins, 2 Yusho
• Harumafuji: 15-0 Y + 15-0 Y = 30 wins, 2 Yusho
• Kakuryu: 14-1 D + 14-1 Y = 28 wins, 1 Yusho, 1 Doten
• Kisenosato: 12-3 J + 14-1 Y = 26 wins, 1 Jun-Yusho, 1 Yusho
• Terunofuji: 12-3 Y + 14-1 J = 26 wins, 1 Jun-Yusho, 1 Yusho

If we apply this as our 'minimum standards' for yokozuna re-promotion, we're looking for any consecutive tournaments where a Yokozuna has:

• 26+ wins
• At least 1 Yusho/Doten
• If only 1 Yusho/Doten, other result must be JY
• I know any 2 Y/D should qualify -- but I'm going to be picky and stick to 26+ wins as that's what we've definitely seen lead to promotion.
  • For completeness' sake, allowing any two yusho would give the following extras:
    • Takanohana - 1 re-promotion
    • Akebono - 1 repromotion
    • Musashimaru - 1 repromotion
    • Hakuho - 1 repromotion

This gives us:

• Asahifuji: 0 re-promotions
• Akebono: 7 re-promotions
• Takanohana: 15 re-promotions
• Wakanohana: 0 re-promotions
• Musashimaru: 2 re-promotions
• Asashoryu: 15 re-promotions
• Hakuho: 40 re-promotions
• Harumafuji: 0 re-promotions
• Kakuryu: 1 re-promotion
• Kisenosato: 0 re-promotions
• Terunofuji: 1 re-promotion (still active)

Also admin, feel free to remove/move to a new 'Measuring Yokozuna Quality', where someone will assuredly come up with better metrics than I.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Godango

[Reonito]

2 hours ago, Godango said:

• Asahifuji: 0 re-promotions
• Akebono: 7 re-promotions
• Takanohana: 15 re-promotions
• Wakanohana: 0 re-promotions
• Musashimaru: 2 re-promotions
• Asashoryu: 15 re-promotions
• Hakuho: 40 re-promotions
• Harumafuji: 0 re-promotions
• Kakuryu: 1 re-promotion
• Kisenosato: 0 re-promotions
•  Terunofuji: 1 re-promotion (still active)

To me, the only real surprise in these results is Harumafuji, though I guess that can be chalked up to the "Hakuho effect." 

[Seiyashi]

14 minutes ago, Reonito said:

2 hours ago, Godango said:

• Asahifuji: 0 re-promotions
• Akebono: 7 re-promotions
• Takanohana: 15 re-promotions
• Wakanohana: 0 re-promotions
• Musashimaru: 2 re-promotions
• Asashoryu: 15 re-promotions
• Hakuho: 40 re-promotions
• Harumafuji: 0 re-promotions
• Kakuryu: 1 re-promotion
• Kisenosato: 0 re-promotions
•  Terunofuji: 1 re-promotion (still active)

To me, the only real surprise in these results is Harumafuji, though I guess that can be chalked up to the "Hakuho effect." 

I'm more surprised Kakuryū managed it, even, considering he had even less yūshō to do it within than Harumafuji. But then again that's pretty much the story of Kakuryū's sumo life: he had a knack for getting hot at the right moments. If you allow a 12-3 JY, he even nearly managed it twice.

[Godango]

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

To me, the only real surprise in these results is Harumafuji, though I guess that can be chalked up to the "Hakuho effect." 

I don't know if I agree. I'll preface this by saying I missed most of Harumafuji but I liked what I saw -- but by the numbers he was a fine, not great, Yokozuna, Hakuho or no.

Out of 31 tournaments at the rank, he earned 5 Y(not too shabby at all) and 4 JY (kinda low for a Yokozuna of that tenure). 

Of matches he competed in (ie. excluding kyujo) he was at a ~73% win rate (not too bad), and he had an average of ~9 wins (median 11). 

I get the impression that he was an 'all or nothing' Yokozuna, who had a particular knack against Hakuho 1 on 1. And hey, that's one heck of a rikishi, I don't mean to take anything away from him -- just saying I'm not overly surprised he avoided 're-promotion'.

[Reonito]

12 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I'm more surprised Kakuryū managed it, even, considering he had even less yūshō to do it within than Harumafuji. But then again that's pretty much the story of Kakuryū's sumo life: he had a knack for getting hot at the right moments. If you allow a 12-3 JY, he even nearly managed it twice.

Well, I remember watching that happen in real time in 2018, so it wasn't a surprise 

[Ripe]

17 hours ago, Godango said:

• Kisenosato: 12-3 J + 14-1 Y = 26 wins, 1 Jun-Yusho, 1 Yusho
• Terunofuji: 12-3 Y + 14-1 J = 26 wins, 1 Jun-Yusho, 1 Yusho

Why people keep insisting Kisenosato was promoted because of 12-3 J followed by 14-1 Y?

If that was all he got he wouldn't be promoted... he was promoted due to having a six basho sequence of 13-2 J, 13-2 J, 12-3 J, 10-5, 12-3 J, 14-1 Y! That is four J and a Y with 70+ wins over a full year worth of basho. Same can be said about Terunofuji... his five basho prior to yokozuna promotion were 13-2 D, 11-4 J, 12-3 Y, 12-3 Y, 14-1 J presenting rather clear case of being worthy of promotion.

[Seiyashi]

19 minutes ago, Ripe said:

Same can be said about Terunofuji... his five basho prior to yokozuna promotion were 13-2 D, 11-4 J, 12-3 Y, 12-3 Y, 14-1 J presenting rather clear case of being worthy of promotion.

I give you the logic for Kisenosato, as that one is definitely arguable, but the take on Terunofuji is a bit hot. Since when were lower sanyaku basho counted towards yokozuna promotion?

He had as close a case to two consecutive yūshō without actually getting two yūshō on his two ōzeki basho alone: a 12-3 Y and a 14-1 JY which was as clear a yūshō equivalent as you can get, having lost only on senshuraku to Hakuhō who was the winner.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Godango]

4 hours ago, Ripe said:

Why people keep insisting Kisenosato was promoted because of 12-3 J followed by 14-1 Y?

If that was all he got he wouldn't be promoted... he was promoted due to having a six basho sequence of 13-2 J, 13-2 J, 12-3 J, 10-5, 12-3 J, 14-1 Y! That is four J and a Y with 70+ wins over a full year worth of basho. Same can be said about Terunofuji... his five basho prior to yokozuna promotion were 13-2 D, 11-4 J, 12-3 Y, 12-3 Y, 14-1 J presenting rather clear case of being worthy of promotion.

A few things:

• I didn't say he was promoted because of that alone
  • I listed the two prior basho directly preceding promotion as that was what was relevant to the discussion
  • This was consistent for all yokozuna listed
• As a general rule for generations promotion has directly followed the performance in the preceding two basho
• If anything, listing promotions as above, especially given Terunofuji's non-controversial promotion follwing Kisenosato shows that Kisenosato's promotion was not at all controversial.
  • This is further reinforced that I used his promotion standard as the baseline for 'promotion-worthy' results
  • The inconsistency with which Yokozuna go on to repeat that standard only further reinforces his worthy promotion.

[Ripe]

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I give you the logic for Kisenosato, as that one is definitely arguable, but the take on Terunofuji is a bit hot. Since when were lower sanyaku basho counted towards yokozuna promotion?

He had as close a case to two consecutive yūshō without actually getting two yūshō on his two ōzeki basho alone: a 12-3 Y and a 14-1 JY which was as clear a yūshō equivalent as you can get, having lost only on senshuraku to Hakuhō who was the winner.

Terunofuji did have back to back basho... it's just that one of them was as Sekiwake.

I do agree with you that lower sanyaku results would not count for yokozuna promotion in any other case... but in many ways Terunofuji was a special case. He was a former Ozeki, who was by many considered a sure bet as future yokozuna before he suffered a near career ending injury. So yes, while loosing on senshuraku to GOAT is almost as close as possible you can get (only playoff loss would be closer) do you really think those three results did not help make the decision to promote him even easier? After all, Sekiwake and Komusubi face pretty much the same opponents as Ozeki (or Yokozuna)...