Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Natsu 2021

[Yamanashi]

25 minutes ago, 白魔ガシ said:

So Kotoeko is definitely>Okinoumi but how is Tairyu against them? Does he get the M3w or Kotoeko, what's more likely?

Well, once again, the db suggests Chiyotairyu ends at M7-9 and Kotoeko/Okinoumi land at M6-8 w/ Kotoeko a half rank ahead.

The next logical step is to assume that even if they Release the Banzuke Kraken, the relative placements of these three will be maintained: Kotoeko>Okinoumi>Chiyotairyu.

But look at me spouting off about future banzuke!  There are a dozen Forum members who have been doing this stuff for decades; they have insights about how things might work in bizarre times like these.

[Reonito]

Could go either way, depending on whether they favor rank or record.

[Asashosakari]

Day 15 (results, text-only results)

12-3 O1w Takakeisho, O2w Terunofuji

11-4 M8w Endo

10-5 Se Takayasu, Ke Mitakeumi, M14w Chiyotairyu

The limited live audience at the Kokugikan got their money's worth when Takakeisho prevailed over leading Terunofuji in regulation with a quick thrustdown to force a playoff - Terunofuji came more prepared and cautious to that one and ultimately did secure the yusho for himself, his fourth overall and third of the last 12 months. As mentioned in the basho thread it is a rare occurrence of two consecutive makuuchi yusho getting won with just 12 wins; that has only happened seven times in the 15-bout era (including a triple in 1972), with Terunofuji the second winner of both tournaments after Musashimaru in 1999, which was also the most recent time it was seen.

Maegashira Endo was also still in line to join a playoff for the championship, but ozeki Shodai had other thoughts about that and managed to defeat the upstart after he already found himself in a near-losing position shortly after the tachiai. Endo still collected a gino-sho for this month's effort, while a longshot shukun-sho on offer for winning the yusho escaped his grasp.

Endo did finish the basho as the sole third-place rikishi at 11-4; former-and-hoping-to-be-again-ozeki Takayasu may come to rue the unexpected senshuraku loss to his sekiwake counterpart Takanosho as 10-10 is hardly the most convincing basis for an ozeki run. Komusubi Mitakeumi also finished 10-5 with a defeat of Ichinojo en route to his first double-digit record in five tournaments (and oddly enough his first at komusubi in 10 appearances). Fellow komusubi Daieisho beat Myogiryu for his 6th win, and joined 5-10 Takanosho in softening their falls to the maegashira ranks.

Their two spots in the titled ranks are set to be taken over by Wakatakakage and Meisei despite senshuraku losses by both against lowly M12 pair Kotoeko and Okinoumi. Both will be making their sanyaku debuts in July. Wakatakakage was additionally rewarded with a gino-sho for the second straight tournament. Neither the kanto-sho nor the shukun-sho was deemed to have a worthy recipient this time around.

The two (out of four total) 7-7 rikishi who weren't paired up for senshuraku, Onosho and Kotonowaka, were both defeated to finish makekoshi, which wasn't only bad news for the GTB players among us, but also managed to make Natsu the new least KK in makuuchi basho for the 42 top division rikishi era since 2004.

    kyujo Hakuho        Y    ---
    7-5-3 Asanoyama     O1   Takakeisho   12-3
     9-6  Shodai        O2   Terunofuji   12-3
    10-5  Takayasu      S    Takanosho     5-10 (x)
    10-5  Mitakeumi     K    Daieisho      6-9  (x)

(o)  9-6  Wakatakakage  M1
(o)  8-7  Meisei        M2
                        ...
                        M6   Ichinojo      9-6
                        M7
                        M8   Endo         11-4

__________________________________________________________________

Not much was left to decide in the makuuchi demotion race, and Ishiura ensured a clean cut by earning his 7th win over Kotonowaka, so we should have just four demotions for sure now. I can't imagine that joi-ranked Chiyonokuni is still at risk, chiefly because there are just no credible juryo candidates to replace him. Even the fourth slot is extremely iffy after Yutakayama blew his chance to finish with a reasonably decent 9-6 record, but somebody has to go up there and it has to be either him or (less likely) bottom-half Ichiyamamoto at 10-5. The latter defeated Kotoshoho on senshuraku - it was the recent high maegashira's third loss in a row to end his Natsu campaign with a highly unexpected makekoshi record.

The juryo yusho race went down thusly:

12-3 J2w Ura

11-4 J1w Chiyonoo, J2e Tokushoryu

10-5 J8e Ichiyamamoto, J11e Tohakuryu, J11w Takakento, J14e Bushozan

Tokushoryu found himself out of the running before he had even mounted the dohyo as his match followed co-leader Ura's victory over the other pursuer Bushozan, but he proceeded to tack on another victory for his repromotion campaign anyway. The pressure was then on Chiyonoo to retain his spot atop the win-loss chart and force a playoff, but he wasn't able to come through against Takakento, so Ura got to walk away with the outright yusho after all.

7 juryo rikishi in double-digit territory is rather on the high side, incidentally.

                        M3   Chiyonokuni 0-4-11
                        ...
(x) 1-7-7 Akiseyama     M13
(x) kyujo Ryuden        M14
                        M15  Midorifuji   kyujo (x)
(o)  7-8  Ishiura       M16
(x)  5-10 Akua          M17  ---

                        J1   Chiyonoo     11-4  (o)
(o) 11-4  Tokushoryu    J2   Ura          12-3  (o)
                        J3
(?)  8-7  Yutakayama    J4
(x)  7-8  Kotoshoho     J5
     8-7  Shohozan      J6
                        J7
(?) 10-5  Ichiyamamoto  J8   Kyokutaisei   9-6

__________________________________________________________________

The final pieces of the juryo/makushita race fell in favour of the lower division, as Yago assured himself of his fourth promotion to the paid ranks with victory over bubble rikishi Jokoryu, who finished 3-12. The last rikishi to get demoted from as high as J7e after a full-basho performance was Amakaze back in Haru 2018 (exact same rank and record, as it happens). I wouldn't rule out yet another comeback for the 32-year-old former komusubi, but it would certainly have to come more quickly than the last two did, which were preceded by 9 and 13 unsalaried tournaments respectively.

Chiyonoumi is departing juryo with a 4-11 record on the heels of a four-day losing streak and only one win during the second week, while Churanoumi got to leave on a high note with a senshuraku defeat of top-ranked Enho.

(x)  3-12 Jokoryu       J7
                        J8
                        J9   Churanoumi    2-12 (x)
(x) 0-9-6 Chiyootori    J10
                        J11
(x)  4-11 Chiyonoumi    J12
                        J13
                        J14

(o)  5-2  Kotokuzan     Ms1  Yago          4-3  (o)
     4-3  Tochimaru     Ms2  Kaisho        6-1  (o)
                        Ms3
                        Ms4
                        Ms5  Kitaharima    3-4  (x)
                        ...
(o)  7-0  Abi           Ms7

Tochimaru won the KK playoff against veteran Kitaharima, but barring a surprise sekitori retirement announcement in a few hours he'll be stuck in makushita again for Nagoya, making him one of the very few rikishi who had three consecutive kachikoshi in the Ms1-Ms5 range and still didn't get to juryo.

The four juryo demotees are hailing from just two stables, Jokoryu and Churanoumi from Kise-beya and Chiyootori and Chiyonoumi of course from Kokonoe. That can't have happened too often before, either.

In final senshuraku action the day also saw two playoffs to determine championships in the lower divisions, duly won by tsukedashi debutant Ishizaki against Kotodaigo in sandanme, and by Fujiseiun against his Fujishima stablemate Suguro in jonokuchi's decider among collegiate rookies.

Edited May 25, 2021 by Asashosakari

[白魔ガシ]

I just realised how WTK and Meisei winning their Senshuraku bouts would've blown the Banzuke up even more with Okinoumi and Kotoeko needing to be promoted heavily with 9-6s already.

[Reonito]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

Tochimaru won the KK playoff against veteran Kitaharima, but barring a surprise sekitori retirement announcement in a few hours he'll be stuck in makushita again for Nagoya, making him one of the very few rikishi who had three consecutive kachikoshi in the Ms1-Ms5 range and still didn't get to juryo.

Even restricting to rikishi starting at Ms5 and only managing 4 -3 each time, he's unlucky by modern standards.

[Seiyashi]

8 hours ago, 白魔ガシ said:

I just realised how WTK and Meisei winning their Senshuraku bouts would've blown the Banzuke up even more with Okinoumi and Kotoeko needing to be promoted heavily with 9-6s already.

How so? 

[Reonito]

7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

How so? 

Nothing would change for WTK and Meisei, who are slotted in at komusubi either way, but it would be even more of a stretch to find candidates for the M3w-M5w hole in the banzuke.

[Jakusotsu]

Looks like the question whether Takakeisho or Terunofuji will become O1e has been answered differently before 2002:
http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&group_expand=on&group_by=basho&having=2&form1_rank=o&form1_yd=on&form2_rank=o

[Kintamayama]

20 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Looks like the question whether Takakeisho or Terunofuji will become O1e has been answered differently before 2002:
http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&group_expand=on&group_by=basho&having=2&form1_rank=o&form1_yd=on&form2_rank=o

I'm pretty sure the playoff doesn't count ranking-wise, so Takakeishou before Terunofuji. 

[Jakusotsu]

21 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

I'm pretty sure the playoff doesn't count ranking-wise, so Takakeishou before Terunofuji. 

How do you explain the 2002 case then? Freak accident?

[ryafuji]

It's well established that there was a change and yokozuna are now ranked according to who won the playoff, so I don't see why it would be any different for ozeki. 

[Asashosakari]

Wikipedia quotes the specific rule as 「同地位で優勝決定戦を行った場合、優勝者を上位とする」.  Nothing about it being restricted to yokozuna in there.

[Kintamayama]

13 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

How do you explain the 2002 case then? Freak accident?

I have no idea. I have a gut feeling, as usual. Takakeishou before Terunofuji.

[Asashosakari]

Filling in some blanks again...the final ex-sekitori records of Natsu basho.

new KK: Yago, Amakaze, Asahisho

new MK: Kitaharima, Fujiazuma, Daiseido, Higonojo, Yoshiazuma, Sagatsukasa
 

Record	Rank	Shikona	Heya	Age	Out (Last)	HiRk	M#	J#
4-3	Ms1w	Yago	Oguruma	26	1 (2021.03)	M10	4	13
6-1	Ms2w	Kaisho	Asakayama	26	8 (2019.11)	J11		2
kyujo	Ms4w	Ryuko	Onoe	22	2 (2021.01)	J12		2
3-4	Ms5w	Kitaharima	Yamahibiki	34	4 (2020.09)	M15	1	25
7-0 Y	Ms7e	Abi	Shikoroyama	27	3 (2020.11)	K	16	8
5-2	Ms7w	Chiyoarashi	Kokonoe	29	46 (2013.07)	J10		4
4-3	Ms11w	Oki	Shikoroyama	24	4 (2020.09)	J13		1
1-6	Ms14w	Sakigake	Shibatayama	35	7 (2020.01)	J10		6
4-3	Ms20w	Asabenkei	Takasago	32	5 (2020.07)	J7		8
4-3	Ms23e	Asagyokusei	Takasago	28	6 (2020.03)	J12		3
3-4	Ms24e	Fujiazuma	Tamanoi	34	3 (2020.11)	M4	17	21
3-4	Ms25w	Keitenkai	Onomatsu	31	51 (2012.09)	J11		1
4-3	Ms27e	Amakaze	Oguruma	29	18 (2018.03)	M13	1	18
3-4	Ms40w	Daiseido	Kise	28	12 (2019.03)	J12		3
kyujo	Ms41e	Ikioi	Isenoumi	34	2 (2021.01)	S	44	11
intai	Ms41w	Kotoyuki	Sadogatake	30	2 (2021.01)	S	33	23
3-4	Ms43w	Nionoumi	Yamahibiki	34	46 (2013.07)	M16	1	12
4-3	Ms52e	Irodori	Shikoroyama	29	7 (2020.01)	J11		4
3-4	Sd18w	Higonojo	Kise	36	41 (2014.05)	J9		4
5-2	Sd22e	Fukushima	Nishikido	24	14 (2018.11)	J13		1
4-3	Sd22w	Asahisho	Tomozuna	31	23 (2017.05)	M11	4	30
kyujo (i)	Sd23w	Takaryu	Kise	29	34 (2015.07)	J13		1
3-4	Sd42w	Yoshiazuma	Tamanoi	44	39 (2014.09)	M12	3	18
4-3	Sd49w	Dairaido	Takadagawa	41	87 (2006.07)	J2		6
3-4	Sd62w	Sagatsukasa	Irumagawa	39	42 (2014.03)	M9	6	22
kyujo	Sd71w	Toyohibiki	Sakaigawa	36	19 (2018.01)	M2	52	14
5-2	Sd88e	Tomokaze	Oguruma	26	6 (2020.03)	M3	5	4
kyujo (i)	Jd14e	Masunoyama	Tokiwayama	30	36 (2015.03)	M4	13	12
kyujo	Jd103w	Kagamio	Kagamiyama	33	29 (2016.05)	M9	7	14