Ten Years After : the Poll

[Jonosuke]

Six bashos a year for 10 years. That's 60 bashos from now.

So how many of them are still left?

We know Musoyama, Kaiou, Kotonowaka were already up high in the banzuke of Aki 1994. Lower down surprising in a way we had Asasnowaka and Wakanoyama who are still around.

So this is a question about longevity as well as their competitiveness.

I limited the list to only those born on 1980 or later with my apology to Kotonowakas of the world.

If Asashoryu can remain a Yokozuna for another 10 years, that will be an accomplishment of galactic proportion and scale.

Edited October 1, 2004 by Jonosuke

[sekihiryu]

I voted Hakuho, then realised "other".

Other is my adopted Rikishi - Maenoyu of Takadagawa beya. The boy has talent and the physical attributes and I dont back donkeys - only thoroughbreds.

Watch this space - Maenoyu - remember the name (Feeling guilty...)

edit - p.s the new local kid Onishi is impressing me too. Cant wait to Haru basho next year and can see these two banzuke stormers in the flesh (Sign of approval)

Edited October 2, 2004 by sekihiryu

[sekihiryu]

If Asashoryu can remain a Yokozuna for another 10 years, that will be an accomplishment of galactic proportion and scale.

10 years? 3 yusho a year is not too unrealistic - 30 + 8 = 38 yusho and the Greatest Yokozuna of all time.

(Greatest = winningest, its the only attribute of greatest that is undisputable)

[Yangnomazuma]

I went with Osh...if this kid ever puts on a little weight, he'll be the better of Hakuho. I give him a couple years to get some weight and he'll be pushing for some serious promotions.

[Asashosakari]

10 years? 3 yusho a year is not too unrealistic

Ever taken a look at the distributions of the yusho won by Taiho, Kitanoumi and Takanohana (the dai-yokozuna promoted at an early age)? (Feeling guilty...) Neither of them got even close to winning yusho consistently for 12 years straight...in fact, all of them had won most of theirs by age 27. I'd be seriously shocked if Asa can fight injury and general physical deterioration for almost twice as long as they did.

Anyway, I voted for Kotooshu, but it might as well have been Hagiwara or Hakuho. With a ten-year horizon, this is really just guessing, nothing more.

[Jonosuke]

I think Asashosakari has a good point.

Anyway I am thinking in a more like Kotooshu, Kokkai or Hakurozan.

The reason is if injuries are not a factor, then there is no question in my mind that both Hakuho and Hagiwara should be a Yokozuna someday. But once in yokozuna you may last anywhere from 3 to 6 years so they won't be around 10 years from now.

Meanwhile Kotooshu, Kokkai or Hakurozan can be just good enough to be Ozeki but not consistently good to become yokozunas. The three are all physically strong and probably can sustain minor injuries without any problem so they will stay in Ozeki just like Musoyama and Kaiou are doing right now.

I am not least bit surprised to see Ozeki Kokkai still shuffling around 10 years from now just like Musoyama is doing right now.

[sekihiryu]

Ever taken a look at the distributions of the yusho won by Taiho, Kitanoumi and Takanohana

Yes its a fairly lofty scenario that one.

No disrespect to any of those Yokozuna you metioned, but he isnt them, he is himself and if he can remain injury free and healthy anything is possible.

Takanohana - IF he had remained injury free would have amassed a Taiho surpassing Yusho count, but he didnt and thats that.....and its purely speculation.

As for Asa all his pretenders may all fail dismally, even 2 yusho a year would take him to 28

I must be pessimistic because Hagiwara in the words of the song from Shania Twain, "that dont impress me much"

[aderechelsea]

i vote for Kotooshu to be east Yokozuna by then and Asa to still hold his Yokozuna spot but as a west one .....

i hope we will all still be around here by then to check on our predictions .....

[Sasanishiki]

I know that he can be voted for in 'Other', but I'm surprised that Baruto wasn't put down as an option.

[Doitsuyama]

I'm pretty sure that Maenoyu and Baruto aren't in this list because they aren't sekitori yet and the whole discussion evolved around sekitori staying 10 years. If you want a list of all current sekitori who were just in Ozumo 10 years ago, it would certainly be longer than Jonosuke initial list. So basically, Maenoyu and Baruto plainly don't qualify.

[Zentoryu]

I must be pessimistic because Hagiwara in the words of the song from Shania Twain, "that dont impress me much"

He's only barely 18 years of age, which means he has a long way to go before he reaches the Prime stage of his career. He's still in the development stage right now and that's what gets people excited about his future. Only 18 and already showing Makuuchi level sumo while still developing.

[Kaihayaiha]

Other: Musoyama will have finally reached yokozuna. (Nodding yes...) \

I'll guess Hagiwara.

[hoshidango]

Hagiwara, Kootooshu, Hakuho - one of them is perhaps be Yokozuna. Two of them will be likely Ozeki. But I could not decide which would be which.

Baruto; I just don't know enough to tell if he can make it to Sanyaku level. But quite likely making it to Sekitori with those quick moves(thanks to the doitsuyama video & instructions). Perhaps at least to mid maegashira.

[Burainoan]

I went with Roho. while there is no doubt in my mind that at least two from this group (most likely Hakuho and Hagiwara or Kotoshogiku) will make yokozuna, i think that they will do so quickly enough that they will mostly be burned out and gone (or almost gone) by that time. Roho will likely take long enough to reach his potential that he should still be around by then, probably as ozeki or yokozuna. (i have a feeling that the same will be true of Kokkai.) Asa will be gone by 30 at the latest. Futeno will be one of those Miyabi or Mitsuki "never realized his true potential" types, though i doubt he will do as well as those two have. he may still be around though, like Kotonowaka....

Edit: i'm not sure how long he'll last, but i suspect Oshu will not fill out terribly much, and could well end up a strong ozeki in the vein of the first Takanohana.

Edited October 3, 2004 by Burainoan

[Sasanishiki]

Baruto; I just don't know enough to tell if he can make it to Sanyaku level. But quite likely making it to Sekitori with those quick moves(thanks to the doitsuyama video & instructions). Perhaps at least to mid maegashira.

I saw a picture of the lower ranked yusho winners from a tournament earlier this year must've been Nagoya) and Baruto is young looking, but he was one bookend with Kotooshu at the other. Not too dissimilar in size, with Baruto being a little shorter and needing to fill out a bit more. Still, perhpas we can expect similar size and power, and not too long before he is a sekitori?

[sashimaru]

I'm missing Kotonowaka as option. :-O

[QttP]

(Greatest = winningest)

i know this is off topic but the english teacher in me can't resist

winningest?

does that mean "most successful'?

No, "winningest" means "winningest" and nothing else. "Most successful" is a rather general expression, a bit hard to define. The meaning of "winningest" is clear to all.

http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=winningest

Edit: I stand corrected, seeing as the dictionary defines "winningest" as "more succesful". I guess it's not as clear as I thought.

Edited October 4, 2004 by QttP

[Sasanishiki]

i know this is off topic but the english teacher in me can't resist

winningest?

It is the English, or at least Irish, teacher in you that grates against this Americanism. For those of us with a Commonwealth education it would seem to be a crass abuse of the language. However, it is in common useage, particularly in sport, and I see that it is a fellow New Zealander who first used it in this thread. There goes my theory of the Commonwealth (and the Irish) versus the rest

[Guest bnona]

you guys joking me. Hagiwara, Futeno, Hakurozan, Toyonoyama these guys bouts i never saw before. And i don't think they wiil not get highest rank future. Hakuho, Kokkai looks like future yokozunas. But i guess Asashoryu will be there as yokozuna. And i voted for Asashoryu

[QttP]

you guys joking me. Hagiwara, Futeno, Hakurozan, Toyonoyama these guys bouts i never saw before. And i don't think they wiil not get highest rank future. Hakuho, Kokkai looks like future yokozunas. But i guess Asashoryu will be there as yokozuna. And i voted for Asashoryu

All of these guys were marked as promising at one time or another, and most of them are still considered as such. The fact that some of these guys haven't even fought in Makuuchi yet and already people think of them as future stars means that they do have noticeable skills.

Now, while Kokkai and Hakuho seemed to have made fast progress, it doesn't mean that they will continue doing so. At the moment, Kokkai doesn't look like a future yokozuna to me. Hakuho, on the other hand, I'm pretty sure will become yokozuna, although my reasoning has nothing to do with his sumo.

And the chances of Asashoryu still performing as yokozuna 10 years from now is rather slim, I think, to say the least.

[Kintamayama]

Toyonoyama- these guys bouts i never saw before.

He hasn't been around much lately.

Edited October 11, 2004 by Kintamayama

[Zuikakuyama]

I would guess that the highest ranked individual on the Banzuke is almost always someone younger than 30. The only exception I can think of is Chiyonofuji in the late 80s and the early 70's when Taiho just retired and before Wajima & Kitanoumi came up (Can someone do a search of ages of the highest ranked person each basho?).

Most of these guys named in the poll are going to be over or close to 30 by 2014, except for Hagiwara.

So I would guess that the most likely scenario is that some (as of yet unknown) youngster in his mid 20s would be the highest ranked rikishi.

A more interesting poll would be to shorten the horizon to 5 years. Would Asa be on top or would one of these youngsters overtake him?

Edited October 12, 2004 by Zuikakuyama