Corona and sumo

[robnplunder]

9 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

Giving the reasons for delaying the start of the basho for two weeks, Hakkaku Rijicho said:

"We cannot say the situation is improving day by day. While we are aiming to hold a normal basho, we will consider flexibly from all angles, including holding it but at a reduced scale, holding it without spectators, or canceling it."

Source

 

The article seems to suggest that the basho will be canceled if National Emergency is declared.  That seems to be all but certain given the current situation.  

[Kaninoyama]

8 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

The article seems to suggest that the basho will be canceled if National Emergency is declared.  That seems to be all but certain given the current situation.  

This is what Shibatayama Oyakata said:

"At that point we'd convene a directors' meeting and consider what direction to take. I can't say we'd cancel, but that would also be a possibility."

Edited April 4, 2020 by Kaninoyama

[Asashosakari]

2 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

I contemplated that. It would come with challenges about what to do with makekoshi records at the bottom of Juryo but I suppose they could work something out there.

In WWII time they had a handful of tournaments where the makushita and below matches were held behind closed doors at stables' training grounds rather than the main arena. (Presumably nowadays they'd use the sumo school.)

That being said, I don't really see any point in doing that under the current circumstances. And having only the sekitori compete altogether just won't be happening, no way.

[Kintamayama]

4 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

holding it but at a reduced scale

Any guesses as to what this might mean?

Only rikishi under 150 kilos?

[Akinomaki]

4 hours ago, rhyen said:

6 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Any guesses as to what this might mean?

Less spectators.

Yes, I think so. Likely the plans I posted earlier: the article mentions e.g. to have some spectators spread around the kokugikan

On 27/03/2020 at 19:59, Akinomaki said:

They still thought (3 days ago) about how to have Natsu not just another empty basho - no schedule for advance ticket sales yet, but the much bigger kokugikan will have a much bigger loss than  Haru and the rikishi will have even less motivation. The NSK has experts to check the possible measures. http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGKKZO57192680U0A320C2UU8000/

Edited April 4, 2020 by Akinomaki

[Dapeng]

21 hours ago, robnplunder said:

    I predict the Natsu will be eventually canceled, and hope that Nagoya may be back on its regularly scheduled date.   

Agree. They won't hold another closed door basho. The epidemic will end in June and we'll see a normal July basho.

[Morty]

It would be hugely, massively irresponsible to hold any basho until the crisis is over, which won't be until a vaccine is developed. Almost every sporting league in the world is shut down until this is over. So is everything else that requires lots of people to be in one place at the same time. Large aggregations of people is what spreads the virus. Until a vaccine is developed the only defense we have is social distancing, which you can't do while having a sumo basho. Some things are bigger than sumo, this is one of them, and they should recognise that and just shut up shop until this is over, like every other responsible sporting organisation in the world has done. The powers that be in sumo are well known for making dumb decisions, but I can't see how they would be allowed hold a basho, even if they decided to go ahead with it (against all common sense). Get ready for the next three or four basho to be cancelled, because that's how long it will be until an effective and widespread vaccine will be available.

[Sue]

Going forward with the basho would be unprecedented, given that the rest of the sports world is completely shut down. I don't doubt that either the national or the Tokyo authorities would shut it down if the NSK attempted to proceed with it, and it defies credulity to think that they'd make it through the full two weeks without having to shut down from a rikishi testing positive. They got lucky in Osaka. It won't happen twice.

[Eikokurai]

If the sumo association was willing to hold a no-frills basho, they could pull it off, but I don’t see them ever wanting to do it without the rites and rituals of tradition. For example, they could dispense with tsukebito accompanying the sekitori, tokoyama doing the hair, the custom of waiting ringside for your bout and hanging around after victory, etc. A skeleton crew of yobidashi could keep the dohyo in order and one shimpan would be enough, with the video ref taking on more responsibility. Essentially it would be a basho run like keiko with a few extras. But it will never happen.

[Kaminariyuki]

On 03/04/2020 at 18:34, Kaninoyama said:

Giving the reasons for delaying the start of the basho for two weeks, Hakkaku Rijicho said:

"We cannot say the situation is improving day by day. While we are aiming to hold a normal basho, we will consider flexibly from all angles, including holding it but at a reduced scale, holding it without spectators, or canceling it."

Source

 

I could see the possibility that the tv revenue could be enough to have an only juryo and makuuchi basho, which would dramatically cut the number of participants. Maybe it's possible, but Japan's and Tokyo's infection rates seem to be rising again.

[Asashosakari]

2 hours ago, Kaminariyuki said:

I could see the possibility that the tv revenue could be enough to have an only juryo and makuuchi basho, which would dramatically cut the number of participants.

I'll say it again, there's just no way this is going to be done. The divisional structure notwithstanding, a honbasho is one single competition of all 650+ rikishi, which is fundamentally an assessment of skill first and a sports entertainment event second. Sports leagues with properly delineated tier systems may be thinking about such solutions right now because the top tier clubs are entirely separate entities from the lower tier ones (with the top tiers significantly more dependent on media revenues), but that's just not how the NSK is set up. They'll either have a proper all-hands honbasho or none at all.
 

47 minutes ago, Genjurooo said:

What kills people is pneumonia in both lungs. Pneumonia is bacterial.and you treat it with antibiotics. 

I'm sorry, but that's really, really stupid reasoning for wanting to give people carte blanche to self-medicate with antibiotics on a "just in case" basis, especially in a situation where many people are already prone to act even less rationally than they usually do. (Case in point...) Please, just stop digging yourself in even further.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Asashosakari

[Katsunorifuji]

There is a fine line in all of this between overreacting and under reacting, and in the end we will probably all agree that no one got it right. If governments shut down the economy and people and businesses go bankrupt people will wonder if it really helped or if the financial pain was all worth it. If they do too little then we question why more sacrifices couldn’t have been made.

NSK is in the same boat. Cancel the tournaments and play it safe and they lose income while still carrying a ton of expenses and risk going out of existence. Carry on and they risk PR disaster which they may also struggle to recover from. The March tourney was their effort to split the difference and I’d say it probably worked out as well as it could have. But who knows how lucky they will be going forward. 
 

I haven’t followed the Tokyo coronavirus news closely but from what I do hear it sounds like the government will shut down any chance of a May basho in the coming days or weeks. And since the efforts are to flatten the curve, which reduces the peak by expanding the time, I don’t see how this resolves in time for a July or possibly even a September tournament. At this point in time I am unsure we are any sumo in 2020 as it’ll be a slow return to normal without a mass produced vaccine.

Of course I hope I am wrong and we all laugh about my 1-basho-only-in-2020 prediction as that’s a long time to go without sumo.

 

[robnplunder]

Pro sports teams have started cutting their salaries, voluntarily or otherwise.   Would NSK follow suit?  I think it makes sense.  People are losing jobs and businesses.   Salary cuts may not be that bad for everyone involved.   

[Kaninoyama]

PM Abe is set to declare a State of Emergency for Japan tomorrow. This can't bode well for the prospects of the May Basho. 

Source

 

[Eikokurai]

4 hours ago, robnplunder said:

Pro sports teams have started cutting their salaries, voluntarily or otherwise.   Would NSK follow suit?  I think it makes sense.  People are losing jobs and businesses.   Salary cuts may not be that bad for everyone involved.   

Starting with the guys in Makushita and below.

[robnplunder]

Hot off the press (and a little bit of my editorials):

1) State of Emergency to be declared tomorrow for Tokyo, and other key areas.   A week late but this is a step in the right direction.

2) JSK is still in wait and see mode on the May basho.   They are in denial.  

3) Japan has increased testing capacity to 20000 per day.   They have been woefully under- testing against the announced capacity.  So, what is the point keep increasing the capacity?    My feeling is, they will change the testing qualification process.   If not, it will take much longer to end the outbreak and they know it.   

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ now lists total tests, tests per million by country.   

Edited April 6, 2020 by robnplunder

[Asapedroryu]

5 hours ago, robnplunder said:

2) JSK is still in wait and see mode on the May basho.   They are in denial. 

And they are doing very well, altough I don't think denial is the correct word.

What would be the point of cancelling an event that will happen in 2 months and that they are not selling any tickets (i.e. they can cancel 1 day before it starts if they want)?

Would that make people more happy or decrease the number of deaths and infected? No. So what is there to complain about not cancelling it today?

 

[Amamaniac]

19 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

PM Abe is set to declare a State of Emergency for Japan tomorrow. This can't bode well for the prospects of the May Basho.

The point to note is that the State of Emergency is only effective until May 6th, and given that the Summer Tourney has already been officially delayed by a week, there is an outside chance of the NSK being free to hold another empty-stadium affair.  It depends on whether the State of Emergency will be extended, and on what the Japan Sports Agency will tell the NSK to do.

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/04/5c77df980ac8-breaking-news-abe-to-declare-state-of-emergency-over-virus-govt-official.html

[robnplunder]

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20200407-24070474-nksports-fight

Self-quarantine as a precaution.

[Otokonoyama]

20 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20200407-24070474-nksports-fight

Self-quarantine as a precaution.

No degeiko during the state of emergency is a no-brainer. Probably best they have that social media policy in place during this time, as a bunch of restless fighters hanging out at home are probably pulling all kinds of gags like our man Abi...

[ryafuji]

If the state of emergency is only until May 6, then delaying Natsu looks sensible - will give them time to work out the logistics if they do decide to proceed. I wonder if they could do behind closed doors but exclude all the media and have as few Kyokai personnel there as possible. 

[robnplunder]

4 hours ago, ryafuji said:

If the state of emergency is only until May 6, then delaying Natsu looks sensible - will give them time to work out the logistics if they do decide to proceed. I wonder if they could do behind closed doors but exclude all the media and have as few Kyokai personnel there as possible. 

If they are serious about holding the basho in May, I would suggest they test everyone involved in holding the basho ASAP and self isolate until the basho's start.   

Things are still not looking good.  Japan has not changed its testing strategy.   And amazingly, tests are done in reduced capacity during weekends.  That can't be called "emergency."    

Today, there were about 360 new cases with some prefectures not testing close contacts of the infected.   They asked those to stay home and observe. 

[Kaminariyuki]

9 hours ago, Otokonoyama said:

No degeiko during the state of emergency is a no-brainer. Probably best they have that social media policy in place during this time, as a bunch of restless fighters hanging out at home are probably pulling all kinds of gags like our man Abi...

No, I would very much like to hear what Abi-san has to say about the virus , and anything somewhat entertaining coming down in the beya...

[robnplunder]

Hot off the press.   Rikishi may have been infected.   To be announced tomorrow. As I have been saying, given how widespread the virus is, this was bound to happen.   BTW, my prediction of 400+ new infections was exceeded greatly.  Japan reported 510+ new cases, shattering the previous daily record.   

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20200409-00000000-spnannex-spo

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by robnplunder

[Eikokurai]

5 hours ago, robnplunder said:

Hot off the press.   Rikishi may have been infected.   To be announced tomorrow. As I have been saying, given how widespread the virus is, this was bound to happen.   BTW, my prediction of 400+ new infections was exceeded greatly.  Japan reported 510+ new cases, shattering the previous daily record.   

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20200409-00000000-spnannex-spo

 

Well, that will be enough to shut the whole thing down. If he’s got it, it will surely spread within his heya as they all live in such close proximity, share food from the same pot, sweat and breathe all over each other every day in keiko, etc. A heya must be an ideal breeding ground for a virus.