New! - Gurowake's Long-Term Prediction Game - Hatsu 2020

[Gurowake]

I don't have a good idea for an interesting name for this, so I guess it can be called GLT for short.

This is an attempt to make a game that will reward long-term predictions rather than those just about the upcoming basho.  The idea is to pick rikishi who will eventually go on to become stars, or at least long-term sekitori, and except for the first time set up of your team, they have to be picked while in Sandanme or below.  

As a new player, pick one rikishi in each of the following rank bands:

1) K-M2
2) M3-M6
3) M7-M11
4) The rest of Makuuchi
5) Juryo
6) Makushita
7) Sandanme and below

These comprise your team, and will mostly comprise your team in future basho regardless of their movement in rank.  Each basho after the banzuke is released until the first match on Shonichi, you may choose to release one rikishi and pick a new one in Sandanme or below.  If a rikishi on your team is no longer on the banzuke, you must replace them with a rikishi in Sandanme or below.  In such a case you can also make a regular change as well.

You do not have to make a change every tournament, or even indicate your continuing participation in future basho.  Once you enter one basho, your score will be tracked in the future until one of the rikishi on your team is no longer on the banzuke and you do not replace them.

Scoring is as follows:

1 point per regulation win, including fusensho.
1 extra point per win other than fusensho over an Ozeki, regardless of rank of your rikishi, including in a playoff.
2 extra points per win other than fusensho over a Yokozuna, regardless of rank of your rikishi, including in a playoff.
1 point per Sandanme or lower Yusho
2 points per Makushita Yusho
5 points per Juryo Yusho
1 point per Juryo Yusho-Doten (playoff appearance not won).
10 points per Makuuchi Yusho.
3 points per Makuuchi Yusho-Doten.
10 extra points per Makuuchi Zensho (whether Yusho or not, just in case of the do-beya double Zensho)
1 point per other Makuuchi Jun-Yusho.
2 points per Kachi-koshi where your rikishi was one of the 16 highest ranked rikishi who participated in the tournament or 14 highest ranked that were on the Day 15 torikumi.
1 additional point for each win above Kachi-koshi in the above situation.

There will be a winner named each basho for the player whose team scores the most points that basho.  There will be no updates in the middle of the basho in general, unless I happen to automate something during my free time or someone else takes it upon themselves.

The banzuke-like rankings will be based on points scored the last six tournaments, where previous tournaments have some of their value removed for each successive tournament in the same way as in Chaingang and GTB.

I will also keep a lifetime average points scored per basho ranking list.  

I have absolutely no idea if players that end up playing a long time will in general end up with an advantage over new players.  Those that pick well certainly will.  Those that pick poorly may wish they'd be able to start again with 4 Makuuchi and a Juryo rikishi, but this will not be allowed.  This is a long-term prediction game, and one needs to live with one's picks. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by Gurowake
changed brackets, removed my team so I can have a different time stamp for it than the edit of this post.

[Gaijingai]

Count me in!!

[chishafuwaku]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

2) M4-M7
3) M7-M11

Is this intended?

[Gurowake]

46 minutes ago, chishafuwaku said:

Is this intended?

Not at all.  I'll change it.

Edited January 6, 2020 by Gurowake

[Gurowake]

First two brackets changed after a little thought.  Need to change my team and need a new timestamp for it.

K-M2 Mitakeumi

M3-M6 Meisei

M7-M11 Onosho

M12+ Kiribayama

J Kotoshoho

Ms Roga

Sd Yoshii

[Akinomaki]

5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I have absolutely no idea if players that end up playing a long time will in general end up with an advantage over new players.  Those that pick well certainly will.  Those that pick poorly may wish they'd be able to start again with 4 Makuuchi and a Juryo rikishi, but this will not be allowed.  This is a long-term prediction game, and one needs to live with one's picks. 

If you so wish, you just have retire from the game and start again as *2. Since I started to violate my policy of sticking to the original 3 games, this looks interesting enough to include in my set of games to play with minimum effort and during off time.

[Athenayama]

K-M2 Mitakeumi

M3-M6 Shodai

M7-M11 Aoiyama

M12+ Ikioi

J Ichinojo

Ms Chiyonokuni

Sd Hokutenkai

[Akinomaki]

Since it is a long term prediction game, I don't see the need for such detailed makuuchi options and restrictions - you could allow 7 initial free picks and limit 1 of them to sanyaku (komusubi and sekiwake, or even higher ranks), 1 more to makuuchi joi (1-5), 1 more to makuuchi, 1 more to juryo, 1 more to makushita joi (1-15), and 1 more to makushita. You limit the picks too much to the present banzuke (luck). The possibility to allow one change each basho is also not really sticking to your picks long term - it should be 1 - 2 per year. Win scores could be simply mochi-kyukin gains, with different relations - only kachi-koshi points (wins - not wins, if positive), kinboshi, yusho and zensho, and then your extra bonus for doten, ginboshi and lower rank yusho.

But it is your game, so

1) K-M2 Daieiesho
2) M3-M6 Meisei
3) M7-M11 Yutakayama
4) The rest of Makuuchi Kiribayama
5) Juryo Ichinojo
6) Makushita Roga
7) Sandanme and below  Hokutenkai

[Gurowake]

5 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Since it is a long term prediction game, I don't see the need for such detailed makuuchi options and restrictions - you could allow 7 initial free picks and limit 1 of them to sanyaku (komusubi and sekiwake, or even higher ranks), 1 more to makuuchi joi (1-5), 1 more to makuuchi, 1 more to juryo, 1 more to makushita joi (1-15), and 1 more to makushita. You limit the picks too much to the present banzuke (luck).

I considered something this, but I felt the limiting aspect of being forced to make one pick per band was part of the challenge.  Also, you don't have to start playing this basho.  If you think it's better to wait for another basho to start, you can do that.

[Gurowake]

5 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

 The possibility to allow one change each basho is also not really sticking to your picks long term - it should be 1 - 2 per year.

If you drop someone, you have to pick from Sandanme or below.  Since you start with mostly people ranked higher than that, and will likely end up choosing people that will quickly rise out of Sandanme, deciding to drop someone will almost certainly negatively affect your score for at least a few basho.  It's not at all obvious just how good a rikishi will be when they haven't made Makushita yet, and most likely most of your rikishi will be sekitori and have 15 basic scoring opportunities instead of 7.  I even considered letting people drop as many as they want per basho, because the restriction of picking new rikishi from Sandanme I feel makes it hard to let go of someone until they're clearly not going to be sekitori material anymore.  

[Gurowake]

5 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Win scores could be simply mochi-kyukin gains, with different relations - only kachi-koshi points (wins - not wins, if positive), kinboshi, yusho and zensho, and then your extra bonus for doten, ginboshi and lower rank yusho.

I'm not sure exactly what you're saying here.  Certainly the scoring system is patterned after the hoshokin system, with additional career highlights given more bonus points as well.  I don't think scoring 0 for MKs is the right way to go, if that's what you're suggesting.

[Gurowake]

11 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

this looks interesting enough to include in my set of games to play with minimum effort and during off time.

It's definitely designed to be as interesting as possible while needing the absolute minimum of effort from players.

[Akinomaki]

2 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

If you drop someone, you have to pick from Sandanme or below.  Since you start with mostly people ranked higher than that, and will likely end up choosing people that will quickly rise out of Sandanme, deciding to drop someone will almost certainly negatively affect your score for at least a few basho.  It's not at all obvious just how good a rikishi will be when they haven't made Makushita yet, and most likely most of your rikishi will be sekitori and have 15 basic scoring opportunities instead of 7.  I even considered letting people drop as many as they want per basho, because the restriction of picking new rikishi from Sandanme I feel makes it hard to let go of someone until they're clearly not going to be sekitori material anymore.  

You are tempted to throw out staggering juryo and below, even lower makuuchi, for any new starting hope expected to win big at first, to simply earn some points for a while (including low. div yusho) and exchange them for the next one when their streaks end

[Gurowake]

1 minute ago, Akinomaki said:

You are tempted to throw out staggering juryo and below, even lower makuuchi, for any new starting hope expected to win big at first, to simply earn some points for a while (including low. div yusho) and exchange them for the next one when their streaks end

Which is why the vast majority of the possible points are for doing well in Makuuchi, particularly the joi.  If you throw away someone rising out of sandanme when they start to stumble for another hot prospect, you may have thrown away a future Yokozuna for someone who never becomes sekitori.

[Akinomaki]

Just now, Gurowake said:

It's definitely designed to be as interesting as possible while needing the absolute minimum of effort from players.

Your selection restrictions made it really a matter of 2 minutes - suits me, but it's still a pity I that I could not exchange some from a higher rank category for more from a lower rank

[Ryoshishokunin]

I would be tempted, given the scoring system, to remove the lower edges on each pick band.  Something like 
1) M1 or lower
2) M4 or lower
3) M7 or lower
4) M12 or lower
5) Juryo and below
6) Makushita and below
7) Sandanme and below

[Akinomaki]

8 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I'm not sure exactly what you're saying here.  Certainly the scoring system is patterned after the hoshokin system, with additional career highlights given more bonus points as well.  I don't think scoring 0 for MKs is the right way to go, if that's what you're suggesting.

I saw that your scoring has some relation to the hoshokin, also no points for sansho, but it does not value kachi-koshi in general, only for the top rikishi - and that is the base of the hoshokin system. You are right though: it is not proper to equal 0-15 to 7-8 in the scoring, and that is the result of 0 for MK, but now a 10-5 in mid maegashira is only slightly better than a 7-8. Your "tetsuboshi" for wins against the top 16 are a nice feature though.

[Gurowake]

23 hours ago, Ryoshishokunin said:

I would be tempted, given the scoring system, to remove the lower edges on each pick band.  Something like 
1) M1 or lower
2) M4 or lower
3) M7 or lower
4) M12 or lower
5) Juryo and below
6) Makushita and below
7) Sandanme and below

I certainly thought about it as possibility, and for a long time that was how I had planned it, but I always was ambivalent about it and decided to not go with it.  I agree that the scoring system is such that you may have higher scores in the future if you were allowed to pick this way.  It's even possible that your average score per tournament ends up higher if you make the right picks as you are able to pick more long-term winners than going with those near the top now.  Thus I totally understand why people are suggesting it, but rest assured that it had been considered and rejected after weighing several factors.  The major factors in favor of it were that it resembled how picks usually work in games, and it narrows down the possibilities to allow people to not have to think too hard when dealing with the largest brackets if they went all the way down the banzuke. 

If you'd like to (unofficially) make picks according to that style of criteria and see how they stack up over the next 5-10 years vs. those forced to pick as I have requested, I can't stop you.

[Profomisakari]

Let  me do this trial:
1. K   - M2      Mitakeumi
2. M3  - M6      Shodai
3. M7  - M11     Takanosho
4. Rest Makuuchi Tsurugisho
5. Juryo         Terunofuji
6. Makushita     Motobayashi
7. Rest Banzuke  Murata

 

 

Edited January 11, 2020 by Profomisakari

[shimodahito]

I'll give it a trial of run as well.

1. K   - M2      Mitakeumi
2. M3  - M6      Shodai
3. M7  - M11     Onosho
4. Rest Makuuchi Kiribayama
5. Juryo         Terunofuji
6. Makushita     Ayanoumi
7. Rest Banzuke  Murata

 

[Flohru]

Good idea, there was a similar long-term game with fantasy heyas in the past (forget the name), which unfortunately ceased to exist after a while.

 

K-M2 Mitakeumi

M3-M6 Meisei

M7-M11 Onosho

M12+ Kiribayama

J Kotonowaka

Ms Roga

Sd and below Hokutenkai

[Ganzohnesushi]

1) K-M2 ---> Mitakeumi
2) M3-M6 ---> Meisei
3) M7-M11 ---> Takanosho
4) The rest of Makuuchi ---> Kiribayama
5) Juryo ---> Kotonowaka
6) Makushita ---> Motobayashi
7) Sandanme and below ---> Hokutenkai

Ganzohnesushi

[Holleshoryu]

K-M2 Mitakeumi

M3-M6 Shodai

M7-M11 Onosho

M12+ Kiribayama

J Kotonowaka

Ms Roga

Sd and below Hokutenkai

[Pitinosato]

1) K-M2   Mitakeumi                               
2) M3-M6   Meisei
3) M7-M11   Chiyotairyu
4) The rest of Makuuchi   Kaisei
5) Juryo   Terunofuji
6) Makushita   Motobayashi
7) Sandanme and below   Ura

Pitinosato

[Haidouzo]

Mitakeumi
Meisei
Onosho
Kiribayama
Terunofuji
Motobayashi
Murata