Games Talk Hatsu 2018

[Rocks]

***I'm sorry this got so long. Feel free to Ignore.

 

As far as Toto, and this just me I don't want or expect anything to be changed (seriously), I can't say I think of it's as the most skillful or pinnacle. I would say that getting the most picks right in Toto for the whole basho, Seki-Toto-Toto, would be but that isn't what the game is and I'm not sure that would be a great game to play or follow, especially on a daily basis. I would also say that for me unless you picked more than half right for the entire basho you haven't shown much skill and I would not call that a win in a fictional Seki-Toto-Toto even if you beat the entire field.

As to Toto itself I would say my impressions as I started it. I started thinking I would just need to get a 50% + 1 right for a win. I know, read the rules. I see why that isn't a win after playing it and why the current system is used. But from a pure entertainment standpoint going in and finding out you lost when you picked the same number right as someone who won is a big mountain of suck and why Toto is one of the last results I check.  And I do not understand why half the field can get a win on a day few or nobody picked more than half the matches right. To me there should be some minimum standard for a win. Some days the game itself wins. 

As far as the Xs I was shocked to even see them there and would have to wonder why they were ever included to begin with. I don't really care they are there though. I would limit them to something like 10 or less. If you can't bothered to make picks in 1/3 of the matches I don't see how you are actually playing the game. The only time I use them are for when I think there is going to be an upset but not really convinced of it. Which is not often. In a match I find very unpredictable, like Kotoyuki after he got hurt this basho. Or because there is a rikishi I don't want to pick against despite the fact I think they are going to lose, like Tochinoshin-Ichinojo this basho.  Yes, it's superstition, I know. But it also effects my enjoyment of watching the match.  There are times I want to root for someone despite my thinking they won't win.  

As far as why I think it isn't the most skillful Daily? Because it is Toto. Some see having to pick all those matches as showing skill, I see it as a cushion. Knowing the Conventional Wisdom helps out a lot the more matches there are to allow that Wisdom to play out. Having all those matches also allows easy picks of matches with guys who got hurt who other players who might not be watching daily aren't aware of. Getting the most right with fewer matches would show more skill to me but reducing it too much is bad such as with ISP.  Having only one match really almost kills it because it's hard to figure out when a guy like Kaisei is going to not bother to even show up for the match like Kaisei did against Abi. Knowing that is a real skill I guess. I'm not saying there is no way Abi would win that match but I know watching it Kaisei had little interest in trying to win it. ISP is fun to play though, at least on the days I don't have to pick against the guy I would like to win.

So as far as most skillful daily, based on the limited number I play, I'd probably say Quad because the timing of your picks matter a lot too, not just the pick itself. I haven't got the hang of that yet. You have to be following the basho closely to do well I think. This basho shows that a lot because even with a lot of gift picks the win total was still not high. Maybe I'm wrong about Quad but it feels that way to me. I think Sumo Game would be the most skillful daily game if you were limited to one each category of sanyaku like Rotosumo. Sanyahku should not be more than 4 of your picks in Sumo Game IMO. Even better with a Juryo pick thrown in.

That being said I think Rotosumo is the most skillful pre-basho because it limits you to categories, includes Juryo,  and has no subs.  I don't find Oracle as very skillful because the game is not played as described. Most people are not attempting to guess the actual  score for the majority of rikishi. The winning strategy is really to pick KKs and MKs and assigning 8 & 7 s to those with a few variations for guys you are more sure about or Y/Os.  To defuse that Bullseyes should count for more than just 1 point more than 1 off.  The idea that you could pick a 7 for someone, meaning you think he will MK,  and only get 1 point less than a person who picks that guy getting a KK and an 8 that is a bullseye is just silly IMHO. Plus from an entertainment standpoint its useless to check.  I stopped checking it this basho around Day 7 or 8 because I was 46th place everyday. Never seemed to budge. I check at the end and find I'm basically tied 15th and to tell the truth all I did was pick almost all 7 and 8s. it maybe a very skillful game somehow. but it isn't a good one. It's easy to play though.

[Gurowake]

You don't find Oracle skillful because you're not good at it yet.  That it's not the game you expected it to be is not relevant in how often good players put up good results.  It says a lot that the scores of the upper Makuuchi players are compared with the scores of the other Makuuchi players only, and still Oracle has the most Yokozuna and Ozeki of any other game with a normal banzuke.  The top players are generally that consistent.  (I "sucked" the last two basho and I think I'll be demoted, but my results were still around the top third both basho - good overall, but not Ozeki good)

Edited January 31, 2018 by Gurowake

[Rocks]

Just to add, I don't expect, nor really want, any long standing games to change. I think keeping it consistent so you can compare what you did against players in the past is very important.

 

And I forgot to mention Chain Gang. I really like playing that and if it wasn't one and out I think it would be very skillful. But the one and out really adds to the fun. A lot. Except when you are wrong the first day. 

[Pandaazuma]

Haha...Rocks, don't you remember that long Oracle discussion we had from a year ago? Not only was it explained just why it is...hands down...the most skill-based game there is, but I also recommended a way of making it more entertaining during the basho. If you have forgotten, go look it up. And then I hope you enjoy it more.

[Rocks]

3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

You don't find Oracle skillful because you're not good at it yet.  That it's not the game you expected it to be is not relevant in how often good players put up good results.  It says a lot that the scores of the upper Makuuchi players are compared with the scores of the other Makuuchi players only, and still Oracle has the most Yokozuna and Ozeki of any other game with a normal banzuke.  The top players are generally that consistent.  (I "sucked" the last two basho and I think I'll be demoted, but my results were still around the top third both basho - good overall, but not Ozeki good)

I wish this were true because it would mean in the future the game would be more exciting.  First off is the game what any new player would expect given the rules. In other words as it advertises itself. First line under how to play?

"Simply predict what all Sekitori's records will be at the upcoming basho"

Any player actually trying to do this on a routine basis is going to do poorly because the scoring system only actively punishes you when you attempt this. The far more successful system is to attempt to pick who will KK and MK and assign a score of no less than 6 and no more than 9 as little as possible outside of Yokozunas. More than 5 times a basho and you are getting into a danger zone where you will will have to be what I think some would term as lucky.  If you look at the top 10 for this basho you will find, outside of Screechingowl with 6 who seems to live dangerously at least the past few basho, none picked more than 2 or 3 to score outside 6-9 and a few who picked none. If you check Panadaazuma's 3 Yusho run last year you will find he only picked 8 outside this range for the entire 3 basho, out of over 200 picks. Now you would look at the record for this basho and say "This is crazy! Why would such skillful players pick so few to score outside 6-9 when 30% of the rikishi scored outside 6-9?" The reason being the scoring system rewards this systemic play.  I only checked back a few basho but this pattern of few picks outside 6-9 for the top 10 seems to hold.  Stray from this system and you have a very low chance of scoring well. Sticking to it won't guarantee you a Top 10 but the vast majority of the time you are going to do better than a half the players. Stick to almost all 7 & 8s and I think you will do that every basho but you will never do very well. You have to take some risk, just not much. You should stick to 7s and 8s unless you have a strong feeling for what an individual rikishi will score though.

The other important part of this system is to count your MKs and KKs when you pick your mostly 7 or 8s with a smattering of 6s and 9s thrown in. @Gurowake the main reason you scored as low as you did this basho is you picked 50 guys to MK. 50! 30 in makuuchi and 20 in Juryo. There  were only 25 guys even competing in Juryo.  It's statistically impossible for 20 to MK. The same with 50 out of 69 for sekitori. Were they going to bring in guys from outside to win to give all these guys their MKs? If you had picked 10 of those MKs randomly and changed them to 8 I daresay you would have been right half the time and scored 5 more points which would have put you in the top 10 this basho. Given your knowledge of sumo and these rikishi  I think a closer look at your MKs would have done even better than that. 

Now wait you say, it's just a very tight scoring system, it's very slight margins that make difference. You are wrong Rock. Well let's look at what a really skillful player did. Choso Yuki  didn't just score the most points. She friggin crushed the field. She had 20 Bullseyes and 45 KKs. Nobody even came close to her. Yet under this scoring system which gives only 1 point more for actually doing what the game suggests is the goal  which is:

"Simply predict what all Sekitori's records will be at the upcoming basho"

She scored only 5 points better than Screechingowl who had 14 and 38. In fact, had Screechingowl not been such a wild risk taker by having 6 whole picks outside the 6-9 range it would have been even closer. If he had adjusted those under 6 and over 9 to 6s  and 9s he'd have lost by only 2 having gained a single Bullseye. Had he been even more conservative with those picks and adjusted those same picks to 7s and 8s he would have tied Chosho Yuki in total points again having gained only 1 Bullseye.  Tied her.  Changing these scores would not have changed what he predicted those 6 rikishi to do this basho as far as KK/MK either. He picked right 5 out 6. He simply would have gained from taking less risk. In other words from trying less hard to pick the rikishi actual record this basho as the game suggests is the goal. Maybe Choko Yuki made some wild picks? No, she didn't pick a single 1 outside the 6-9 except for the Yokozunas.

I'm sorry but any scoring system which produces such a result  is not a good scoring system  And it certainly does not reflect what the game suggests it is in it's description. 

I am not trying to knock the game or have it changed. But that is the way I see it. I don't think it will change much with extended play. I play it because it's quick to pick and is fun to think over. But I don't think it is reflective of great skill adhering to a system, even if you don't really think of it that way when you do it. At least not a system which is so blatantly obvious. 

 

[Rocks]

14 minutes ago, Pandaazuma said:

Haha...Rocks, don't you remember that long Oracle discussion we had from a year ago? Not only was it explained just why it is...hands down...the most skill-based game there is, but I also recommended a way of making it more entertaining during the basho. If you have forgotten, go look it up. And then I hope you enjoy it more.

 No, I haven't forgotten. I didn't think the explanation was convincing then and I still don't think so. I tried what you suggested about making it more entertaining though. I was just convinced I was going to do terrible and stopped checking.

[Pandaazuma]

As I explained at the time, I predict what I honestly think a sekitori will get. In the vast majority of cases, that will be in the 7-8 range. I am not avoiding riskier picks...I simply expect anyone I predict 7 for to get 7 and anyone I predict 8 for to get 8. Simple as that.

Edited January 31, 2018 by Pandaazuma

[Rocks]

2 minutes ago, Pandaazuma said:

As I explained at the time, I predict what I honestly think a sekitori will get. In the vast majority of cases, that will be in the 7-8 range. I am not avoiding riskier picks...I simply expect anyone I predict 7 for to get 7 and anyone I predict 8 for to get 8. Simple as that.

And I would have to ask why a skillful player, which you undoubtedly are, would make a group of picks which rarely include records you know at least 25% of the players will achieve? You do it, consciously or not, because that is what is has proved to be successful. The system is so strong in the game it is self enforcing. Attempting to be good at the game on continuing basis dictates the behavior. Look how much I improved having done it.  I scored 5 points less than Asashosakari, a guy who's played it 14 years, won 3 Yusho and has vastly more sumo knowledge than I ever will. And that's with having picked some real stinkers. I didn't pick some really good ones either. I mean I picked Hokotofuji and Terunofuji to get 10 wins. 10. That is really bad. I should have been killed for those picks. The difference in what he and I scored for Terunofuji, his 4 to my 0, almost makes up the entire difference.  Had I just put an 8 instead he would have had 2 points more than me. He picked 0 picks outside the 6-9 other than Yokozuna.  His 6 for Terunofuji meant he thought he would be among the worst this basho by his metric. Yet he doesn't pick at least him to get maybe a 5? A guy hurt and dropping fast? A bunch did pick that. That's not prediction. That's behavior reinforced by the system. 

[Pandaazuma]

1 hour ago, Rocks said:

And I would have to ask why a skillful player, which you undoubtedly are, would make a group of picks which rarely include records you know at least 25% of the players will achieve? You do it, consciously or not, because that is what is has proved to be successful. The system is so strong in the game it is self enforcing. Attempting to be good at the game on continuing basis dictates the behavior. Look how much I improved having done it.  I scored 5 points less than Asashosakari, a guy who's played it 14 years, won 3 Yusho and has vastly more sumo knowledge than I ever will. And that's with having picked some real stinkers. I didn't pick some really good ones either. I mean I picked Hokotofuji and Terunofuji to get 10 wins. 10. That is really bad. I should have been killed for those picks. The difference in what he and I scored for Terunofuji, his 4 to my 0, almost makes up the entire difference.  Had I just put an 8 instead he would have had 2 points more than me. He picked 0 picks outside the 6-9 other than Yokozuna.  His 6 for Terunofuji meant he thought he would be among the worst this basho by his metric. Yet he doesn't pick at least him to get maybe a 5? A guy hurt and dropping fast? A bunch did pick that. That's not prediction. That's behavior reinforced by the system. 

Hahaha...no, I genuinely expect them to achieve the records I predict. Of course I know some won't due to injury or exceptional performance or whatever other things I can't foresee. It looks like you've got it into your head that I am unwittingly or intentionally trying to follow the 'safe' system you have described because I know that to do otherwise would cause me to lose, but I am afraid that is just coincidental to the fact that my projections for expected performance almost always fall into the 7-8 range. I do this based on my own assessment of the strength of the rikishi and that strength relative to his likely opponents...and historical patterns of such relative values from my own memory of past tournaments. I occasionally check data on Sumo Reference while making my picks, but not all that much. I understand what you are trying to suggest, but - disappointingly - I must repeat that every prediction I make is what I truly expect, not because I want to win the game through sticking to non-outlandish predictions.

[Senkoho]

I agree with Rocks on Oracle. I've been in the upper Makuuchi for a couple of tournaments and i achieved this by mostly making boring 7-8, 8-7 picks instead of predicting the actual results. 

I don't enjoy playing the game but it brings me SB points so I keep playing. 

[Pandaazuma]

Lol. So...in order to make the game more 'interesting', I should throw in a few predictions that don't match my own projections? Chuck in an 11-4 for Tochiozan at that low rank? Or should I predict 9-6 because that is what I thought he would get (and was on course for before he withdrew)?

[Haidouzo]

If I have to make a prediction for what's going to come up as the total of two tossed fair dice, I'm going to predict 7, even if there's a 5 in 6 chance it won't be 7.  I will predict 7 every single time.  That's just basic statistics and probability.  And it's the same reason to predict almost entirely 8-7 and 7-8.

[Sakura]

Oracle is the only game at the moment I let the computer pick for me.  I run many simulations. I'm sure some of them had Tochiozan at 11-4 for example, but the final aggregated guess I had was at 9-6. 

[Rocks]

4 hours ago, Pandaazuma said:

Lol. So...in order to make the game more 'interesting', I should throw in a few predictions that don't match my own projections? Chuck in an 11-4 for Tochiozan at that low rank? Or should I predict 9-6 because that is what I thought he would get (and was on course for before he withdrew)?

I guess that would depend on what you find interesting. For you I would think not because getting at least at Top 10 is far more interesting than getting the most bullseyes. Fortunately the game rewards you for such interests with it's scoring. But the description of the game would lead you to believe getting bullseyes is your goal. It isn't. In fact trying will lead to your determent. The goal of the game is to determine who will KK and MK and adhering  closely to giving those 8s and 7s.  Strictly adhering will cost you a win because far too many already understand that system. You need at least a few outside it, 6 or 9, to get you the yusho. But not many. Picking more than about 1/3 outside that 7-8 range will almost certainly put you outside the top 10 and likely in the bottom half unless your are very, very right. Lucky as they say.  I think you understand this system well because you saw early Chosho Yuki would beat you despite knowing you were doing very well. It was pretty easy to guess how many KKs she would get 2/3s of the way through the basho. In effect, outside of a large number of rikishi going on a streak opposite their 1st 2/3rds record, the rikishi actual scores for the last 1/3 of the basho become largely  irrelevant to who will win  Oracle if you had stuck to  the system.

 

Now don't get me wrong. I am not meaning to suggest picking KKs and MKs is not skillful, it is. But it isn't terribly skillful. Especially given factors relating to position on the banzuke. With even rudimentary knowledge you will know high and low Maegashira are going to do poorly generally. Getting more than half right was achieved  by 25 of the 53 players. But getting the highest percentage, over 55%, is much harder. Indeed only 5 players achieved that this basho.  Now you would think it likely those 5 would finish in the Top 10, at the very least in the top HALF of of the standings. In reality 3 of the 5 didn't finish in the top 15  and 2 of those finished in the bottom half of all players. Why? They were chasing bullseyes, or maybe just bored to tears picking 7 & 8s, and the scoring system crushed them for it.

Indeed, if Terarno, Susanoo and Metzinowaka had simply rounded up all their sub 7s to 7s and their over 8s to 8s all 3 would have achieved a Top 10 score this basho. Susanoo would have tied Norizo with a 534 at 3rd. Instead Susanoo finished 31st out of 53.

But such rounding up is counter to what the game describes itself as being which is to pick the ACTUAL scores of the rikishi in the basho. To me the scoring system is akin to benefiting from picking a bunch of Xs in Seki-Toto. I think if you did have a Seki-toto-toto game where you, if you knew what all the matchups would be for the entire basho, and kept the Xs the most skillful players would pick many Xs as they would know that would get the near 50% and doing well would simply amount to actually picking the winners in about 1/3 of the matches. Seki_toto negates this because it has a hard line for win/loss and that line is on most days closer to the 55% right than 50%. Now I know that you pay close attention to the picks for the whole basho in Toto and the percentages. I think it likely getting above 55% is going to mean you did very well Daily and finishing with an MK in Toto while picking 55% right overall would be very rare. For this reason Toto is WAY more skillful than Oracle.

Rotosumo to me is more skillful because it limits the number of rikishi you pick KKs for, which is what you are doing really, and forces you to pick from categories which are harder and having those scores  be a bigger percentage of your overall score. Picking M1-M4 in Oracle is fairly easy as of the eight it's highly likely what percentage will KK generally and their scores will even out to what amounts to a 7.  Picking the one you are sure will KK like in Rotosumo? Way harder IMHO.

Edited January 31, 2018 by Rocks

[Ganzohnesushi]

10 hours ago, Rocks said:

Well let's look at what a really skillful player did. Choso Yuki  didn't just score the most points. She friggin crushed the field. She had 20 Bullseyes and 45 KKs. Nobody even came close to her.

Funny. Taking Choshu-yuki as an example is really funny. She always scores big in a what I call 'upset basho'. Somehow she seems to have a nose for upsets and often enough her outsider picks win. Thus her Odd scores usually are 15-0Y or 0-15 only. Thus she is always a hot candidate for the Kanto-sho in Toto. In a "normal" basho whith only a few upsets she is far away from "a really skillful player". It is just her way playing the games.

Ganzohnesushi

[Ganzohnesushi]

57 minutes ago, Rocks said:

Rotosumo to me is more skillful because it limits the number of rikishi you pick KKs for, which is what you are doing really, and forces you to pick from categories which are harder and having those scores  be a bigger percentage of your overall score. Picking M1-M4 in Oracle is fairly easy as of the eight it's highly likely what percentage will KK generally and their scores will even out to what amounts to a 7.  Picking the one you are sure will KK like in Rotosumo? Way harder IMHO.

RotoSumo harder than Oracle? Gimme a break, man! The luck factor is much bigger in those games where you have some given brackets. If one of your chosen Rikishi goes kyujo during the first few days you're simply toast. I don't see any skills when you were just lucky enough to avoid the soon to be kyujo Rikishi. That's why I put games like Fantasy Sumo and RotoSumo rather high on the luck factor list because you don't even can pick a substitute for kyujo Rikishi. In Oracle usually everyone is affected by some kyujo Rikishi, so this somehow evens out unless you made some highly speculative predictions on who could get kyujo during a Basho.

Ganzohnesushi

[Rocks]

2 minutes ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

Funny. Taking Choshu-yuki as an example is really funny. She always scores big in a what I call 'upset basho'. Somehow she seems to have a nose for upsets and often enough her outsider picks win. Thus her Odd scores usually are 15-0Y or 0-15 only. Thus she is always a hot candidate for the Kanto-sho in Toto. In a "normal" basho whith only a few upsets she is far away from "a really skillful player". It is just her way playing the games.

Ganzohnesushi

Yes but in this case she played very conservatively. Sticking close to the system.  Outside of Yokozuna she had no picks outside of 6-9 and only 15 outside of 7-8.  She won by picking 5 more KK/MKs than anyone else.  She had only one real risky pick, Terrunofuji at 9, and thanks to the scoring she got a point for that. Despite it being a terrible pick. She had the most bullseye too but 17 of those 20 were a 7 or 8. Not risky. None under 6 or over 9, which would have been a risky pick for a bullseye.

 

[Randomitsuki]

I did some number crunching and turned Rocks' Oracle obsession into my obsession as well

My rationale was that the most extreme version of Rocks' favored system would be to use bulls-eyes only. Fortunately, we have such a statistic available, viz. the shukun-sho score of Oracle. So I correlated the final standings from all basho since January 2017 with the shukun-sho standings (and in order to account for variations between bashos I took only the numbers of those players who took part in all seven basho under question). In all honesty, I expected this correlation to be very high. This would have disproven the idea that getting the most points is different from getting the most bulls-eyes, and furthered the Panda's notion that successful players pick 7 or 8 because they fully  expect rikishi to score 7 or 8. Well, the correlation turned out to be quite modest (.38). Certainly substantial, probably significant, but not as high as I had expected.

I also compiled two lists, one of the players sorted by points, and another one of the players sorted by bulls-eyes. For many players, the position in the two lists were comparable, suggesting an even higher correlation. Interestingly, however, there were some departures. Some players score many bulls-eyes, but have relatively few overall points; and some players have lots of points with comparably few bulls-eyes. Maybe I am reading too much into it, but exemplars of the first group are Seki Haruaki, Kotononami, kuroimori, Bill, Torafujii, and Gaijingai. Of course, I do not know much about these players (who does?), but I have the feeling that they play a lot on "guts". In comparison, the second group has players like Gurowake, Frinkanohana, Tsuchinoninjin, chishafuwaku, Kitakachiyama, and suwihito. Some of these are known (or at least suspected ) to use an algorithmic approach.

So, the jury is still out. But while we are at it, I have a question for those who use an algorithmic approach: If the game would give 1 point for a bulls-eye, and 0 points for everything else - how would you adapt your algorithms, if at all? As I used to play algorithmicially, I must admit that this is a really tough question for me.

[Rocks]

10 minutes ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

RotoSumo harder than Oracle? Gimme a break, man! The luck factor is much bigger in those games where you have some given brackets. If one of your chosen Rikishi goes kyujo during the first few days you're simply toast. I don't see any skills when you were just lucky enough to avoid the soon to be kyujo Rikishi. That's why I put games like Fantasy Sumo and RotoSumo rather high on the luck factor list because you don't even can pick a substitute for kyujo Rikishi. In Oracle usually everyone is affected by some kyujo Rikishi, so this somehow evens out unless you made some highly speculative predictions on who could get kyujo during a Basho.

Ganzohnesushi

How many go kyujo early on average in all of Makuuchi, 1 or 2? Taking risks on players with chronic injuries is skillful. That's why we pay attention to the preparations for the Basho. I picked Tochizan this basho despite knowing he's chronically ill over say Kaisei because he is, when healthy, more likely to get me a 10 or better based on the past year.

It's the same reason I choose Terunofuji, which was way riskier. Neither paid off for me. That's my fault. Not luck. I could have went with a safe pick like Kaisei. But that would have not gotten me much closer to the Yusho. It would have gotten me 18 more points. Farther up the banzuke at least. Rotosumo doesn't reward playing safe anywhere near as much as Oracle. The evening out you mentioned. 

[Ganzohnesushi]

3 minutes ago, Rocks said:

She won by picking 5 more KK/MKs than anyone else.

That's why she would have won the Kanto-sho if she was eligible.

7 minutes ago, Rocks said:

She had the most bullseye too but 17 of those 20 were a 7 or 8. Not risky.

Well, I know you think making 8-7/7-8 picks is not risky. But if you look at the final scores - especially in Juryo division - over the years you will easily find out that in Makuuchi (excluding Sanyaku) more than 60% and in Juryo almost 75% of the Rikishi usually achieve between 6 and 9 wins in a basho. So why should a skilled player take risks on making 10-5 or 11-4 picks against better knowledge and experience? My view is that top players in the long run simply can better estimate who goes MK or KK and thus achive better scores than others. You may find that boring, conservative or easy but it isn't. In my view this is separating the good players from the better ones.

Ganzohnesushi

[Ganzohnesushi]

4 minutes ago, Rocks said:

Taking risks on players with chronic injuries is skillful.

Never had heard or read such a weird statement before. For me this is just some all-or-nothing gambling and has nothing to do with skills at all. I don't think we're living on the same planet. You have your views, I have mine and these seem to be from different worlds in many aspects.

7 minutes ago, Rocks said:

It's the same reason I choose Terunofuji, which was way riskier. Neither paid off for me. That's my fault. Not luck. I could have went with a safe pick like Kaisei. But that would have not gotten me much closer to the Yusho. It would have gotten me 18 more points. Farther up the banzuke at least. Rotosumo doesn't reward playing safe anywhere near as much as Oracle.

You're just heavily contradicting yourself. You say chosing Terunofuji was riskier but didn't pay off for you. And then you make a statement that RotoSumo doesn't reward playing safe? Huh? Perhaps my English is just not good enough to follow your argumentation 

Ganzohnesushi

[Rocks]

44 minutes ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

That's why she would have won the Kanto-sho if she was eligible.

Well, I know you think making 8-7/7-8 picks is not risky. But if you look at the final scores - especially in Juryo division - over the years you will easily find out that in Makuuchi (excluding Sanyaku) more than 60% and in Juryo almost 75% of the Rikishi usually achieve between 6 and 9 wins in a basho. So why should a skilled player take risks on making 10-5 or 11-4 picks against better knowledge and experience? My view is that top players in the long run simply can better estimate who goes MK or KK and thus achive better scores than others. You may find that boring, conservative or easy but it isn't. In my view this is separating the good players from the better ones.

Ganzohnesushi

Why take the risk? I can think of none given the scoring system. Taking the risk gets you little. Picking some 10s and 5s isn't against better knowledge and experience in sumo. It would accurately reflect it as it happens every single basho. It's against better knowledge and experience in the scoring system of this game.  Those are 2 different things. And I agree the better players are the ones who can picks MKs and KKs, but that isn't what the game purports itself to be is it? And rewarding safe play makes the game easier. Maybe not to win, but to do well. Why should anyone picking an 8 for Terunofuji in this Basho get any points? A person could hardly be more wrong and yet they receive 2 points? Picking a 4 for a 9 gets you 5 points? Why is a game which purports it wants you to pick a rikishi's record giving you points for being so far off? In my view any pick more than 5 points off is worthy of nothing. If the game is really just about MKs and KKs as you admit then that should have a greater disparity than 1 point which it is in most cases. A -1 for picking a MK/KK wrong and a +1 for getting it right. Reward these top players for what they do.

 

I am not saying this to get changes to the game. The game should be what long standing players are happy with. They are the core support. But let's not pretend what is happening isn't happening.

[Rocks]

1 hour ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

Never had heard or read such a weird statement before. For me this is just some all-or-nothing gambling and has nothing to do with skills at all. I don't think we're living on the same planet. You have your views, I have mine and these seem to be from different worlds in many aspects.

If this is true why does anyone pay any attention to the preparation for the basho threads? Considering a players health in a sport with chronic injury problems and a system which keeps that going is knowledge and experience. Any top player would be a fool to ignore it.

[Rocks]

1 hour ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

You're just heavily contradicting yourself. You say chosing Terunofuji was riskier but didn't pay off for you. And then you make a statement that RotoSumo doesn't reward playing safe? Huh? Perhaps my English is just not good enough to follow your argumentation 

You misread my statement. I said "Rotosumo doesn't reward playing safe anywhere near as much as Oracle." Not that it doesn't at all. It does,  just not to near the degree Oracle does.

[Ganzohnesushi]

6 minutes ago, Rocks said:

If the game is really just about MKs and KKs as you admit then that should have a greater disparity than 1 point which it is in most cases. A -1 for picking a MK/KK wrong and a +1 for getting it right. Reward these top players for what they do.

No, I did not say that the game is all about MK's and KK's. Target is the Yusho and that is won by the player who has the smallest deviation for all Rikishi from their real score. The reward for predicting most MK/KK is the Kanto-sho. Any Bonus for a+1 (or malus for a-1) would change the character of the game.  Why should someone who has the most correct MK/KK's but lousy predictions for the remaining 25 Rikishi  be rewarded with a Yusho? 

Ganzohnesushi