Will we have a new Ozeki by the end of 2017?

[Daanish Khan]

Do you think anyone in sumo can make Ozeki by the end of the year?

[Benihana]

There is a long list of rikishi who have the potential. Mitakeumi, Shodai, Takayasu and so on.

 

 

[MumboJumbo]

No. Takayasu maybe, but probably not. Mitakeumi and Shodai could possibly be dug into sanyaku by the end of the year and beginning to come into their own. I don't think either of these "next ozekis" will make ozeki by the end of the year. Maybe in 2018 or 2019, maybe even later. I'm still pulling for Ichinojo!

Edited January 23, 2017 by MumboJumbo

[rhyen]

Takayasu in time for 2018. 

[RabidJohn]

Ah, a poll without a poll!

Yes, Mitakeumi, in May. His 11-4 is the start of a successful ozeki run! Outrageously optimistic I know, but he looked to me like someone who's ramped it up a gear, and he hasn't got a track record going against the possibility.

Takayasu certainly looks like he's figured out how to stay in sanyaku for a while at the very least. Ozeki by 2018? I'll wait and see...

No doubt it's happened before, but I think March will be the first basho I've seen with only two ozeki on the banzuke, so it feels to me like there's space waiting to be filled.

[orandashoho]

Not May. Perhaps Mitakeumi in Kyushu -- after establishing that he can hold his own in Sanyaku and get the double digits. This may take a little while, but it's looking as if he might do it this year.

[PawnSums]

Takayasu will be next Ozeki AND Yokozuna

[Benihana]

Nope. Mitakeumi.

[Katooshu]

I predict no new ozeki by 2018, but with 3 double-digit KK in his last 4 sanyaku tournaments, I think Takayasu has shown the most promise to achieve it.

Edited February 1, 2017 by Katooshu

[Kintamayama]

Two. Shoudai and Mitakeumi. Takayasu? Much as i like him, no.

[Churaumi]

I think this basho will be the "now or never" basho for him. If he chokes, it wasn't meant to be. I hope he doesn't, but my worry is how long he can keep it.

[Daanish Khan]

I think Takayasu can do it, especially with really good recent performances, but he needs to not lose focus as we saw in march. Mitakeumi looking really good these last two basho but i think we will see him at full force in 2018. But with Shodai, I believe he can but he has not yet stepped out yet in my opinion.

[Benihana]

Now that 2 basho have passed, Takayasu really looks like the next ozeki.

[Tiger Tanaka]

It's very difficult at this time for the those in the Sekiwake/Komusubi ranks to ascend to Ozeki, when we have 4 active Yokozuna and 2 active Ozeki. To average 11 wins over three consecutive tournaments, when 6 of your 15 opponents every basho are in the elite ranks, is very difficult. Takayasu will likely be the only one with a shot in 2017. He's gotten a little lucky that of the 4 Yokozuna, three of them have been battling injury, and one he can't face because he shares a stable.

Late 2018 would be my most likely guess, when we will likely have an intai or two and the next crop (Mitakeumi, Shodai, etc.) will have improved their sumo further as they enter their prime years.

[Chijanofuji]

If Takayasu manages to enter the upcoming Natsu basho relatively injury free and remains healthy for its duration I don't see why he wouldn't get the 10 wins he needs to make Ozeki.

As for Mitakeumi and Shodai making Ozeki...

It would be premature to say that they can or will make it before either of them prove themselves for several basho in a row while being ranked in sanyaku, though Mitakeumi would appear to be the more promising of the two right now.

Ichinojo would surprise me if he somehow manages to become healthy enough to even be a contender for the sanyaku ranks on a regular basis, let alone become an Ozeki contender.

[Daanish Khan]

On 03/05/2017 at 20:02, Chijanofuji said:

If Takayasu manages to enter the upcoming Natsu basho relatively injury free and remains healthy for its duration I don't see why he wouldn't get the 10 wins he needs to make Ozeki.

As for Mitakeumi and Shodai making Ozeki...

It would be premature to say that they can or will make it before either of them prove themselves for several basho in a row while being ranked in sanyaku, though Mitakeumi would appear to be the more promising of the two right now.

Ichinojo would surprise me if he somehow manages to become healthy enough to even be a contender for the sanyaku ranks on a regular basis, let alone become an Ozeki contender.

Mostly agree with you except for the fact that Ichinojo is rather young still, Takayasu was very hit and most till recently, anything is possible.

[Rocks]

On 5/3/2017 at 15:02, Chijanofuji said:

Ichinojo would surprise me if he somehow manages to become healthy enough to even be a contender for the sanyaku ranks on a regular basis, let alone become an Ozeki contender.

Ichinojo will win a Yusho before the year is out. You can take it to the bank.

[Chijanofuji]

4 hours ago, Rocks said:

Ichinojo will win a Yusho before the year is out. You can take it to the bank.

I sincerely hope you are right! I truly hope Ichinojo gets back to displaying the kind of Sumo we saw him do during hist spectacular shin-nyumaku basho (Aki 2014) when he had a 13-2 record at M10E, with a Jun-Yusho, was awarded the Shukunsho, got a kinboshi against Kakuryu, also defeated Kisenosato, and Goeido and was only put in his place by Hakuho on day 14!

Ichinojo still needed to mature his belt-sumo technique at that point but showed enormous promise and wasn't afraid of anyone. Everybody was talking about him as the next Ozeki at that moment in time!

His next 4 basho were also pretty good. He was holding his own with the Sanyaku rikishi while being ranked between Sekiwake and Maegashira 1. But starting with the 2015 Nagoya basho where he went 4-11 at Sekiwake 1 West we have only seen occasional glimpses of his former brilliance. He seemed to give up too soon during many of his bouts.

If you ask me he gained way too much weight too fast and that caused the injuries that have plagued him ever since. Now that he has lost weight (down to 197 kg at the last weigh-in reported here on May 2), there is hope for a marked improvement, but how are his injuries? And what is his level of confidence?

Last basho was not very hopeful, so I need to see evidence of marked improvement before I'm jumping on the Ichinojo Yusho and or Ozeki bandwagon again...

[ALAKTORN]

On 2/1/2017 at 11:18, Kintamayama said:

Two. Shoudai and Mitakeumi. Takayasu? Much as i like him, no.

Hah!

I don’t think Mitake/Shōdai will make it within the year. Maybe Tamawashi?

[RabidJohn]

I was a doubter, but Takayasu has answered this one!

There are still three honbasho to go in 2017, though, which is just enough for another ozeki run if the current sanyaku incumbents want to make a go of it.

Tamawashi is currenty looking very secure in S1E, which is a remarkable step forward considering his past performance. Looks to me like he's plateaued, though, and at 33 he may be too old to make the extra push. He's so close...

Kotoshogiku is on the decline and I don't believe he'll ever go up beyond sekiwake again, and while I love Yoshikaze, I think he's too old to make it.

Mitakeumi has looked great all year and, like Tamawashi, looks like he really belongs in sanyaku. His trend is all upward and, barring catastrophe, he will be an ozeki one day. He's young and hungry for it, so he's the one I'd bet on. Can he clinch it by the end of Fukuoka 2017? That's a very long shot, but so was Hakuho getting a zensho after a year of nothing and Takayasu getting promoted when his track record predicted a MK... I wouldn't rule it out!

 

[Gurowake]

Kotomitsuki at 31 years and 3 months or so is the oldest to be promoted to Ozkei (whether first time or not).  If Tamawashi can pull it off that would be amazing, but Kotomitsuki at least was an Ozeki candidate right from when he started, and I recall reading most people thought he'd never make it once he got past what is normally the peak age (27 or so).  Tamawashi didn't even make sanyaku until he was 30; it's completely befuddling how he continues to get KKs, including 2 10-5s, in sanyaku given that past.  Yoshikaze had a something similar happen to him a few years before where he went from a mid maegashira to a joi regular with a sanyaku debut at age 32, and he even had an 11 win joi tournament, and he's back with a KK in sanyaku again.  They might be able to hang in sanyaku for a while, but time is not on their side in terms of further promotion; they'd have to get an extremely lucky run of wins to manage it, and then probably couldn't keep the rank all that long.