Goueidou/Takayasu promotion guidelines-Kyushu 2016

[Kintamayama]

Goueidou:

Nishonoseki Oyakata, Chief of Judging Department: "A yusho will do it. Without a yusho, we'll have to see till senshuraku."

Tomozuna Oyakata, Deputy Chief of Judging Department: " We'll have to think about what to do in case he reaches a playoff.."

Takayasu:

Nishonoseki: "The '33 wins in 3 bashos'  criterion is in place." This means he needs to win 12 bouts. With everyone above him present and more or less healthy..

[Bumpkin]

Why does the promotion criteria for Ozeki include your last 3 bashos, but for Yokozuna only your last 2?

[Fukurou]

1 hour ago, Bumpkin said:

Why does the promotion criteria for Ozeki include your last 3 bashos, but for Yokozuna only your last 2?

Typically, you have to win two consecutive basho to be promoted to Yokozuna. Ozeki promotion is typically based on a total number of wins over 3 basho (33 in 3), and you don't have to win any of the basho. While neither is an easy thing to do, IMO winning consecutive basho is more difficult.

*Typical = before the old men in charge start sticking their personal preferences into things.

 

Edited November 11, 2016 by Fukurou

[Dwale]

I'm always cheering for Takayasu, but there's no mistake this will be an uphill battle for him. I wish both he and Goeido luck, though.

Edited November 11, 2016 by Dwale

[Gurowake]

1 hour ago, Bumpkin said:

Why does the promotion criteria for Ozeki include your last 3 bashos, but for Yokozuna only your last 2?

Because that's the way things work.  If it helps at all, you have to already be an Ozeki when you win your two tournaments in order to be promoted to Yokozuna.  Winning one as Sekiwake and then winning the next basho at Ozeki is not good enough. 

If I were in charge I would be looking over 4 basho for consistency, but I'm not in charge so my opinion is irrelevant. 

[robnplunder]

WIth both promos and Terunofusi holding his Ozekiship, we'd have 4 Yokozuna & 4 Ozeki.   That's very rich at the top.  Would this be in any committee member's mind and narrow the promo entrance a bit?  

Edited November 11, 2016 by robnplunder

[RabidJohn]

I don't know about Takayasu. I was surprised to hear Moti predict MK for him (on the vid with Jase and John), because I was thinking 8 or 9 - but he was right about Ura last time...

Everybody's looking at Goeido's ozeki track record and thinking "Nah, no chance." But as I've mentioned before, that track record did not point to 15-0 in the Aki basho, so what use is it? I've seen it before in sumo, when someone suddenly 'gets the knack' and starts consistently beating everyone (check out Chiyonofuji's track record).

Goeido's looking genki and serious about his tsunatori basho, like a realistic prospect.

I'm not saying Goeido's definitely going to take the yusho, but I fancy his chances of following through far more than I did Kotoshogiku's.

[Gurowake]

1 hour ago, RabidJohn said:

I don't know about Takayasu. I was surprised to hear Moti predict MK for him (on the vid with Jase and John), because I was thinking 8 or 9 - but he was right about Ura last time...

Long-term results, when you have them, are generally more predictive than short-term results.  Takayasu has not even managed to stay in the joi previously for very long - something most of those promoted tend to do for a decent while (if not promoted right away) before they get hot enough to get promoted.  Just look at how long it took all of the current Ozeki and Yokozuna to get up there, and how long they were in the joi consistently every basho before getting promoted, and if out of the joi manage to get 10 wins if not more.  Takayasu was only 9-6 at M5 before the last two basho and he was 9-6 last year in Kyushu in the double digit maegashira ranks.  And his other previous joi performances the last 2 years? 5-10, 6-9, 3-12, 6-9 and a single KK in a 10-5.  I give him a 44% chance at a KK.  1% that he picks up the 12 wins he needs to be promoted.

[Dapeng]

7 hours ago, Gurowake said:

,,,,,,Winning one as Sekiwake and then winning the next basho at Ozeki is not good enough.,,,,,, 

It depends IMO, especially these days when anything can happen on dohyo. For example, if the highly popular Endo won a 15-0 at sekiwake this basho and another 15-0 next basho at Ozeki, I believe the NSK would be very eager to promote him to yokozuna right away.

[ryafuji]

10 hours ago, Dapeng said:

It depends IMO, especially these days when anything can happen on dohyo. For example, if the highly popular Endo won a 15-0 at sekiwake this basho and another 15-0 next basho at Ozeki, I believe the NSK would be very eager to promote him to yokozuna right away.

 Futabayama had to spend two basho at ozeki even when he was in the middle of his record 69 winning streak. If he had to wait then so can Endo! 

[Dapeng]

8 hours ago, ryafuji said:

 Futabayama had to spend two basho at ozeki even when he was in the middle of his record 69 winning streak. If he had to wait then so can Endo! 

Well, Endo can wait, but NSK can't.

[rzombie1988]

Typical double standards with the Kyokai. Kakuryu's up for promotion? "Oh, just get a win and a 2nd place". Goeido's up? "You need to win two"

How in the hell is THAT fair?

Then we get told that Takayasu HAS to win 33 bouts total when others have gotten by on 32 or less to Ozeki.

Why even have criteria?

Edited November 13, 2016 by rzombie1988

[Gurowake]

Goeido does not *need* a win - they say they will have to think about it more if he doesn't get the Yusho.  Kakuryu also was 14-1 with a playoff loss in the first tournament, and absolutely needed a win in the second tournament.  That's to say nothing of them probably being more willing to promote someone who has no MKs in their two years as Ozeki than someone with 4.

And as for Takayasu, ok, sure Goeido and Kisenosato only needed 32.  But they were joi mainstays for years.  Takayasu isn't.  Those two Ozeki proved they could regularly over a period of years get KKs against the top competition.  Takayasu has not.  That he needs a full 33 is no surprise.

 

Edited November 13, 2016 by Gurowake

[Dapeng]

42 minutes ago, rzombie1988 said:

Typical double standards with the Kyokai. Kakuryu's up for promotion? "Oh, just get a win and a 2nd place". Goeido's up? "You need to win two"

How in the hell is THAT fair?

Then we get told that Takayasu HAS to win 33 bouts total when others have gotten by on 32 or less to Ozeki.

Why even have criteria?

As I said, the NSK can't wait: when they can't wait, they will lower the bar.

 

[Dapeng]

Just saw a news saying that Goeindou has 15.4% of chance to obtain promotion, which was the percentage of success of previous first-time promotion challengers.

[Kintamayama]

On 12.11.2016 at 05:51, Dapeng said:

It depends IMO, especially these days when anything can happen on dohyo. For example, if the highly popular Endo won a 15-0 at sekiwake this basho and another 15-0 next basho at Ozeki, I believe the NSK would be very eager to promote him to yokozuna right away.

That of course can never happen, even if Endou was involved. He needs two yushos or equivalent at Ozeki. Like everyone else. They may go easy on him if he gets a yusho and a runner up to yusho, but they both have to come at Ozeki.

Edited November 13, 2016 by Kintamayama

[Kintamayama]

All this talk about lowering the bar and NSK eagerness for a Japanese Yokozuna is irrelevant, since it never actually happened. Nobody came close to filling the "lenient" criteria. It's just theoretical talk. Some of you make it sound like it's happened  ten times at least and it's unfair etc.

Never happened.

[Asashosakari]

7 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

All this talk about lowering the bar and NSK eagerness for a Japanese Yokozuna is irrelevant, since it never actually happened. Nobody came close to filling the "lenient" criteria. It's just theoretical talk. Some of you make it sound like it's happened  ten times at least and it's unfair etc.

Never happened.

Expert sumo analysis of events that only happened in some people's imaginations is where it's all at these days.

[robnplunder]

On 11/11/2016 at 10:04, Kintamayama said:

Goueidou:

Nishonoseki Oyakata, Chief of Judging Department: "A yusho will do it. Without a yusho, we'll have to see till senshuraku."

Tomozuna Oyakata, Deputy Chief of Judging Department: " We'll have to think about what to do in case he reaches a playoff.."

Takayasu:

Nishonoseki: "The '33 wins in 3 bashos'  criterion is in place." This means he needs to win 12 bouts. With everyone above him present and more or less healthy..

I think it'd be safer to wait for Goeido to prove himself across 3 basho.   Promoting him after this basho yusho with his history of Kadoban is a bit risky.   I'd hate to see Yokozuna barely going Kachi-koshi or some Ozeki like Kise outperforming him basho after basho.   

Edited November 13, 2016 by robnplunder

[Dapeng]

19 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

All this talk about lowering the bar and NSK eagerness for a Japanese Yokozuna is irrelevant, since it never actually happened. Nobody came close to filling the "lenient" criteria. It's just theoretical talk. Some of you make it sound like it's happened  ten times at least and it's unfair etc.

Never happened.

Well, two consecutive 15-0 yushoes at sekiwake and ozeki only happened once in history, which was achieved by the greatest rikishi ever of Futabayama. Futabayama was not promoted right away doesn't mean nowadays' Endo wouldn't be too, and if he does achieve it, he will be considered as Futabayama-2 and worthy of immediate promotion. In addition, a 15-0 at sekiwake followed by promotion to ozeki means he had been performing strongly at sekiwake for at least one more basho. 

Edited November 14, 2016 by Dapeng

[Dapeng]

19 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

All this talk about lowering the bar and NSK eagerness for a Japanese Yokozuna is irrelevant, since it never actually happened. Nobody came close to filling the "lenient" criteria. It's just theoretical talk. Some of you make it sound like it's happened  ten times at least and it's unfair etc.

Never happened.

Since the disastrous promotion of Futahaguro, every yokozuna was promoted on two consecutive yusho of at least 13-2, until Kakuryu for whom the bar was lowered to 1 yusho. But these days few insists on two consecutive yusho as an iron criteria anymore. 

It's very true that it "Never happened" for a Japan-born rishiki to be promoted to yokozuna. But let's wait to see if it will happen.

[Dapeng]

12 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Expert sumo analysis of events that only happened in some people's imaginations is where it's all at these days.

Well, before the breaking out of the yaocho scandal, few would ever believe that yaocho was so pervasive. You can't blame people for being suspicious after that.

[Kishinoyama]

25 minutes ago, Dapeng said:

....every yokozuna was promoted on two consecutive yusho of at least 13-2, until Kakuryu for whom the bar was lowered to 1 yusho.....

If you mean a 13-2 average for those back to back yusho then you are correct. I know that Wakanohana II had a 14-1 yusho and followed that with a 12-3 yusho. 

[Morningstar]

1 hour ago, Dapeng said:

Well, two consecutive 15-0 yushoes at sekiwake and ozeki only happened once in history, which was achieved by the greatest rikishi ever of Futabayama. Futabayama was not promoted right away doesn't mean nowadays' Endo wouldn't be too, and if he does achieve it, he will be considered as Futabayama-2 and worthy of immediate promotion. In addition, a 15-0 at sekiwake followed by promotion to ozeki means he had been performing strongly at sekiwake for at least one more basho. 

Futabayama never had a 15 and 0 tournament until he was a Yokozuna. He did have two 11 and 0 tournaments before he was made Yokozuna. This is because back in the old old days, they had shorter tournaments, and less of them. It is statistically much easier to go 11 and 0 than it is to go 15 and 0. Especially when you have only three tournaments a year, so there is plenty of time to heal and train.

 

Also Hakuho is the GOAT, not Futabayama.

[Kintamayama]

5 hours ago, Dapeng said:

 

It's very true that it "Never happened" for a Japan-born rishiki to be promoted to yokozuna. But let's wait to see if it will happen.

Be that as it may, your scenario regarding Endou will never happen. Leniency with an Ozeki on his second basho of a tsuna run notwithstanding, nobody will ever be promoted to Yokozuna without at least two bashos as Ozeki. Not even Endou, who BTW has never had a kachikoshi north of the M5..