Takayasu Ozeki?

[Rocks]

With a 9-6 at M5 along with an 11-4 and a Gino Sho at K1 over the last 2 basho if Takayasu gets 10 wins ot better at the Aki Basho will he be promoted to Ozeki?

[Gernobono]

no

[Akinomaki]

15-0 and he has it -

no, he needs 10 wins this time to go for ozeki next time - the 3 basho have to be in sanyaku (except for the exceptionals).

[Atenzan]

2 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

the 3 basho have to be in sanyaku (except for the exceptionals)

I would argue that you don't have to be "exceptional" to be promoted to Ozeki after a run that starts in the overall top 16 that fulfills (strictly) the criteria of:

A. 33 wins over 3 consecutive KK

B. Rank of sekiwake in the third basho

C. 10 or more wins in the third basho.

So, if someone did a run that satisfied all three conditions listed above, I believe he would be promoted with a run that started as low as M3e (now that there's 3Y and 4O).

Now for Takayasu's case. The M5 9-6 would never ever count, even if the promotion called for 30 wins and not 33.  He's off the mark with his 11-4, and he needs a further 22 wins (maybe 21?) over Aki and Kyushu combined to be promoted. So he needs a KK here to set himself up for an actual Ozeki run in November. And no matter what, he needs 10 in November. So, the case for him is, the more wins the better, but they stop counting for his promotion after 12.

[Akinomaki]

4 hours ago, McBugger said:

7 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

(except for the exceptionals)

I would argue that you don't have to be "exceptional" to be promoted to Ozeki after a run that starts in the overall top 16

I didn't mean just exceptionally good - anybody for whom a-n(ew) exception is made

8 from maegashira, the last 5 under the present basho system, Tochihikari from below top 16

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=4&n_basho=4&sum_wins=30&form1_rank=m&form4_rank=o&form4_debutr=on

with less wins you get a bunch of ancient promotions

some not promoted: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=7&n_basho=7&sum_wins=33&sum_first=4&form4_rank=m&form5_rank=k,s&form6_rank=k,s&form7_rank=s

with those who made it the next basho: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=7&n_basho=7&sum_wins=33&sum_first=3&form3_rank=m&form4_rank=s,k&form5_rank=s,k&form6_rank=s&form7_rank=o

Edited September 9, 2016 by Akinomaki

[Ahogeyama]

Takayasu will need to shine twice for Ozeki promotion. A 15-0 mark seems very unlikely, but something close to that could set up a very strong possibility in the November basho.

I just don't see Yasu pulling it off. He's fortunate to be in the same heya as Kisenosato (thus avoiding any direct matches). He'd have to beat three Ozeki and two Yokozuna wrestlers on the way there, and I'm not sure he can do that consistently if he's going to drop matches vs. M5 wrestlers.

He's also never had three straight KK marks in makuuchi. Maybe he gets his head on straight with Hakuho resting, but I doubt we see Yasu as an Ozeki.

[RabidJohn]

I'm looking at Terunofuji's 8-7 at M2E, 13-2 J and 12-3 Y, both at Sekiwake E, which was 'only' two worthy performances on the trot. I know there were special prizes involved each time too, but I'm wondering if a 13-2 Y or better actually would swing it for Takayasu, particularly if he can topple a yokozuna and help one or both of the kadoban ozeki to MK...

And while we're crystal ball gazing, anyone else expect Kotoshogiku to go intai if he gets MK?

[ryafuji]

1 minute ago, RabidJohn said:

I'm looking at Terunofuji's 8-7 at M2E, 13-2 J and 12-3 Y, both at Sekiwake E, which was 'only' two worthy performances on the trot. I know there were special prizes involved each time too, but I'm wondering if a 13-2 Y or better actually would swing it for Takayasu, particularly if he can topple a yokozuna and help one or both of the kadoban ozeki to MK...

And while we're crystal ball gazing, anyone else expect Kotoshogiku to go intai if he gets MK?

A 9-6 at M5, outside the jo-jin, can never be the start of an ozeki run, I'm sorry. Even if the 13-2 does get him to 33, you have to look at the quality of the opponents over the three basho.

And I can't see Giku retiring immediately if he gets demoted - why would he? A 10-5 in November would automatically restore him to ozeki status. Most recent demoted ozeki have had a go at that, even veterans like Chiyotaikai and Kotooshu.

[robnplunder]

15 hours ago, Rocks said:

With a 9-6 at M5 along with an 11-4 and a Gino Sho at K1 over the last 2 basho if Takayasu gets 10 wins ot better at the Aki Basho will he be promoted to Ozeki?

Nope but I like his chance at getting greater than 10 wins in Aki with Hak, Ichi out, and Kakuryu coming back from injury.    Teru looked shaky in the last basho, and Toyonoshima, Osu, Aminishki are also not in Makuchi division.   Takayasu should try to get as many wins as possible and repeat that in November.   That may be the logical step to his rise to Ozeki rank.   My 2 cents.

Edited September 9, 2016 by robnplunder

[RabidJohn]

15 hours ago, ryafuji said:

A 9-6 at M5, outside the jo-jin, can never be the start of an ozeki run, I'm sorry.

There's absolutely no need to apologise for putting me right.

[Gurowake]

14 or 15 wins might do it.  He's already had a 10-5 and 9-6 in the joi in the past, so he's not a complete stranger to doing well up at the top.  Even then I still think they would wait to see if he can get at least 10 in Kyushu since a 9-6 at M5 is not worth a damn thing, far less than even Terunofuji's 8-7 at M2.

What I think would be most interesting is for Takayasu and Kisenosato to end up in a play-off and have them announce that the winner gets promoted.

It's certainly not particularly likely to happen given the past few years of results, but based on his rise into the joi at age 22, I think he has the potential*.  While this might not be the run that gets him to Ozeki, it might be the start of a prolonged stay in sanyaku that may or may not end with his promotion further.

 

*Prolonged digression on the noted topic:

The cut-off "Before (or right as) one turns 23, be m3 or higher at some point" has been a very good predictor of who ends up becoming Ozeki over the last 15 years.  There are no exceptions for those promoted to Ozeki in that time frame if you consider Kotomitsuki's rapid rise indicative of joi strength when he entered Ozumo already at an age where it was impossible to make that cut-off.  I haven't looked into the opposite further than 2002, but the only definite negative in that time period is Asasekiryu (ok, he still logically can be, but there's no legitimate chance).  Potential negatives are Tochiozan and Tochinoshin, although they still have a chance.  Younger rikishi fulfilling this criteria are Ichinojo, Osunaarashi, and Chiyootori.  Others I consider currently "on track" (even if most such rikishi derail before making it all the way) are Onosho, Sato, Takayoshitoshi, Takagenji, Kotokamatani, Shonannoumi and Inoue.  Daieisho and Kagayaki were on track for a while, but it seems unlikely they'll make it time, although the latter still easily has enough basho left to go whereas Daieisho needs a monster of a basho right now.

As for college graduates like Kotomitsuki, Shodai had an opening KK streak to hit the joi from his debut, and Mitakeumi may also have done so if he didn't have to sit a few days out during the basho he first went MK in (note Kotomitsuki took a whole basho off right as he hit Makuuchi).  Ura, Daiki, Oyanagi, and some other new guys might manage it as well, although most have failed.