Podcast - Yaocho discussion

[Gurowake]

Can someone not as lazy as me find some rikishi who went 12-3 in their joi debut and didn't become yokozuna?

Only 9 rikishi have had at least 12 wins in a rank debut at M4 or higher. Among them are Hakuho and other Yokozuna. Wakashimazu's was not his joi debut, having already been ranked high enough to face all the top guys in the previous 2 tournaments. Myobudani was not actually in the joi.

Fujinowaka is close (Haru 1967). Never made Ozeki. Wasn't high enough ranked to face 2 Ozeki, including the winner, but faced 2 Yokozuna, an Ozeki, and 3 junior sanyaku. Matsuragata in May 1941 is also close, scheduling was quite different then so he didn't face all the high rankers, but went 12-3 at M2 and previous high rank was M10. Didn't even make Sekiwake.

Hakuho was 8-7 one basho earlier at M3e, Wakashimazu went 4-11 at M4e one year ago.

So need to refine the query.

In what way would refining the query obtain more results that are of the form that are asked for? All possible results fitting the question would be returned by that query. That some of the results returned do not fit the question is irrelevant.

[wuli]

As for the three future Ozeki, we will see, right?

yep

will the fauxzeki, soon or late, be replaced with legitmate ozeki?

or, will we find just an ongoing fauxzeki replacement program, going forward?

[wuli]

In the comment section of Mike's report, wuli predicted a Kisenosato yusho in May, but also predicted that Kisenosato might choke.

This technique is known as the conspiracy theorist's double whammy.

1) predict something.

2) also predict the opposite of that something.

3) Do not forget to say "I knew it all along" after the something or the opposite of that something panned out.

unfortunately, kise' being gifted a yusho and kise' screwing up being gifted a yusho (priors) are both fairly likely outcomes for the next basho or few

[wuli]

with all the commotion about how 'mike's wrong, mike's wrong',

i'd love to hear from members here, what is your description of what's going on in sumo regarding yaocho, etc

especially the statistics oriented members

tossing out lots of numbers may be self consoling, but it doesn't address mike's description of how sumo works today

please share your alternative views

if mike is so frighteningly off track, what are you seeing? are you saying there is no yaocho, mukiryoku, etc?

do you honestly see the fauxzeki as competitive at the top?

i don't think it helps sumo to play along with that game

maybe if the straight up bouts increase, the audience will grow from discovering real sumo,

or are you propping up a sumo the relies on finding endos to boost higher, so we can call in an audience of swooners?

[yorikiried by fate]

Mike's mistake is that he places his claims on the actual bouts, or - to be precise - 98% of all bouts.

If he'd just claim that politics are a factor in the outcome of individual results or even yusho resolution: Deal.

If he'd just point out the missing competitiveness in certain bouts or regular contellations (the classical 7-7 against 8-6 comes to mind): Deal.

But calling yaocho after basically every single fucking bout clearly doesn't help, excuse my Mongolian.

As a few people here will recall, I have a history with Mike/Sumotalk and I appreciate Mike's perspective on the Japanese way in general and its potential impact of sumo as a competitive pasttime. What I learned from him at the least, is to watch bouts quite critically.

What I do think is that the top Mongolians were over the last few years holding back quite a bit, which makes it interesting to see Hakuho nowadyas turn up with a war face practically every day. Age looms, I guess. In this context, I remember only a couple of bouts between two of the big Mongolians, were clearly both participants went all out. That was frightening to behold and adds, IMHO, to an impression that the long absence of a Japanese champion wasn't so unlikely after all (And then the Geek? Please...) I also think that Asashoryu made Hakuho (even though it was anyhow only a question of a couple of more months), that Hakuho made Harumafuji and both of them Kakuryu.

[yorikiried by fate]

Ing-forms and word order, but WTF...

[wuli]

Mike's mistake is that he places his claims on the actual bouts, or - to be precise - 98% of all bouts.

If he'd just claim that politics are a factor in the outcome of individual results or even yusho resolution: Deal.

If he'd just point out the missing competitiveness in certain bouts or regular contellations (the classical 7-7 against 8-6 comes to mind): Deal.

But calling yaocho after basically every single fucking bout clearly doesn't help, excuse my Mongolian.

As a few people here will recall, I have a history with Mike/Sumotalk and I appreciate Mike's perspective on the Japanese way in general and its potential impact of sumo as a competitive pasttime. What I learned from him at the least, is to watch bouts quite critically.

What I do think is that the top Mongolians were over the last few years holding back quite a bit, which makes it interesting to see Hakuho nowadyas turn up with a war face practically every day. Age looms, I guess. In this context, I remember only a couple of bouts between two of the big Mongolians, were clearly both participants went all out. That was frightening to behold and adds, IMHO, to an impression that the long absence of a Japanese champion wasn't so unlikely after all (And then the Geek? Please...) I also think that Asashoryu made Hakuho (even though it was anyhow only a question of a couple of more months), that Hakuho made Harumafuji and both of them Kakuryu.

thanks, mate

more sense in this post than the rest of the thread put together

anyone else with a coherent view to offer?

[hamcornheinz]

thanks, mate

more sense in this post than the rest of the thread put together

anyone else with a coherent view to offer?

Apparently, not you.

In the comment section of Mike's report, wuli predicted a Kisenosato yusho in May, but also predicted that Kisenosato might choke.

This technique is known as the conspiracy theorist's double whammy.

1) predict something.

2) also predict the opposite of that something.

3) Do not forget to say "I knew it all along" after the something or the opposite of that something panned out.

[apraxin]

Not real at all. Mike is not a prophet. The only reason he would know any of the things he is saying, is if he has extrasensory perception.

... or, if he watches sumo carefully

You'd think that if 'watching sumo carefully' gave someone the ability to detect each and every fixed bout and determine the politics behind them then that person might also have noticed that a whole bunch of rikishi were operating a for-profit organized yaocho ring, but funnily enough I don't recall Mike ever mentioning that one until after it was publicly exposed.

Edited April 10, 2016 by apraxin

[SkinnySumo]

Not real at all. Mike is not a prophet. The only reason he would know any of the things he is saying, is if he has extrasensory perception.

... or, if he watches sumo carefully

You'd think that if 'watching sumo carefully' gave someone the ability to detect each and every fixed bout and determine the politics behind them then that person might also have noticed that a whole bunch of rikishi were operating a for-profit organized yaocho ring, but funnily enough I don't recall Mike ever mentioning that one until after it was publicly exposed.

That is exactly the problem with Mike.

If watching sumo makes you an expert than everyone would be one. But it takes more than watching bout to bout video to even tell what a rhikishi is thinking much less what he has premeditated. And what doesn't make any sense is why he idolizes the Mongolian's. Not that I have anything against them. I'm speaking based on Mikes perspective. He seems to believe that Hakuho is the greatest of all and the Ozekis are frauds. Yet he claims Hakuho let's others win from time to time. If that's the case how is he sure that Hakuho earned his 32 yushos. I mean Hakuho himself was punished for gambling. Again I am coming at this from what is supposedly mikes POV. I believe the Mongolians and Ozekis all earned their ranks...with a few leniency here and there ;).

What was that saying, never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell you two apart?

But I'd play a fool just to diss Mike any day :)

[Gurowake]

Can someone not as lazy as me find some rikishi who went 12-3 in their joi debut and didn't become yokozuna?

Only 9 rikishi have had at least 12 wins in a rank debut at M4 or higher. Among them are Hakuho and other Yokozuna. Wakashimazu's was not his joi debut, having already been ranked high enough to face all the top guys in the previous 2 tournaments. Myobudani was not actually in the joi.

Fujinowaka is close (Haru 1967). Never made Ozeki. Wasn't high enough ranked to face 2 Ozeki, including the winner, but faced 2 Yokozuna, an Ozeki, and 3 junior sanyaku. Matsuragata in May 1941 is also close, scheduling was quite different then so he didn't face all the high rankers, but went 12-3 at M2 and previous high rank was M10. Didn't even make Sekiwake.

Hakuho was 8-7 one basho earlier at M3e, Wakashimazu went 4-11 at M4e one year ago.

So need to refine the query.

In what way would refining the query obtain more results that are of the form that are asked for? All possible results fitting the question would be returned by that query. That some of the results returned do not fit the question is irrelevant.

Actually, I did forget to look at times where someone's joi debut was at a sanyaku rank. Here's a similar query to what I did looking for such situations. In each of those situations, the rikishi went on to become Yokozuna, or that tournament was not their joi debut (Or both! It doesn't matter! If they went on to become Yokozuna the fact it wasn't their joi debut is irrelevant in attempting to find answers to the posed question). So I believe I've covered all possible times that someone's joi debut was 12 wins and they did not make Yokozuna, and found only 2 partial matches.

Edited April 10, 2016 by Gurowake

[Gurowake]

In the comment section of Mike's report, wuli predicted a Kisenosato yusho in May, but also predicted that Kisenosato might choke.

This technique is known as the conspiracy theorist's double whammy.

1) predict something.

2) also predict the opposite of that something.

3) Do not forget to say "I knew it all along" after the something or the opposite of that something panned out.

unfortunately, kise' being gifted a yusho and kise' screwing up being gifted a yusho (priors) are both fairly likely outcomes for the next basho or few

So, how will Kise be gifted a Yusho such that he can screw it up? Are you saying that the Mongolians will choose to lose to Kisenosato, and then lose among themselves such that Kisenosato should win, but that Kisenosato will lose to other people not in on the conspiracy? Can you provide any sort of details?

And here we also see the other out: if it's not next basho, it'll be in the next few.

Look, you keep making statements that are absolutely not falsifiable. That is, you provide caveats to everything such that there's no way you'll be wrong. In this way, you end up saying absolutely nothing useful at all. There's no point to any of the predictions you're making if there's no possible way that they'll be wrong. Predictions are only useful if they exclude some set of possible outcomes. I mean, if I predict someone from Isegahama-, Miyagino-, Izutsu-, Sadogatake-, Tagonoura-, Sakaigawa-, Oguruma-, Tokitsukaze-, Kasugano-, Hakkaku-, Isenoumi-, Arashio-, Tomozuna-, Nishonoseki-, Takanohana-, Kokonoe-, Kise-, Katanonami-, Minato-, Onomatsu-, Dewanoumi-, Oitekaze-, Otake-, or Shikoroyama-beya will win the Natsu 2016 Makuuchi Yusho, and that no one from Yamahibiki-, Onoe-, Takasago-, Tamanoi-, Minezaki-, Kagamiyama-, Fujishima-, Shibatayama-, Takadagawa-, Tatsunami-, Azumazeki-, or Chiganoura-beya will win it, by doing so I haven't told you anything you don't already know.

[wuli]

thanks, mate

more sense in this post than the rest of the thread put together

anyone else with a coherent view to offer?

Apparently, not you.

aloha, hamcornheinz

that's kind of a spiteful comment, eh?

you've been posting on this thread,

have you read it?

my views were requested, then provided

sorry if they were not coherent enough for you, but you can always get a more detailed description at sumotalk, if you want to learn about yaocho, etc

so, why not share what you are seeing?

are you amongst those that see the fauxzeki as legit? yaocho and mukiryoku are only delusional conspiracist notions?

[wuli]

So, how will Kise be gifted a Yusho such that he can screw it up?

in pretty much the same way that the 'giku was recently gifted a yusho that he didn't screw up

since you are here, can you share your views on the 'giku basho? was that a real win or a set up?

are the fauxzeki not false at all? they are powerful rikishi, capable to earn and hold ozeki status, and can actually seriously compete with the top four rikishi?

[Dapeng]

I think "mukiryoku" sumo or "ninjio" (trading favour) sumo is in human nature and it can't be gotten rid of. Also, it's almost impossible to prove a bout to be mukiryoku or ninjio.

On the other hand, yaocho (i.e., buying or selling a win) can be proved and it should be strictly forbidden.

[Randomitsuki]

since you are here, can you share your views on the 'giku basho? was that a real win or a set up?

are the fauxzeki not false at all? they are powerful rikishi, capable to earn and hold ozeki status, and can actually seriously compete with the top four rikishi?

Several people (including me) have extensively outlined their viewpoint with regard to the Kotoshogiku yusho in particular, and the conspiracy theorist's stance in general. Why you repeatedly state that nobody would address your questions, is beyond me.

It is probably in vain to discuss the Ozeki with someone who overjoys in using the oh-so-clever "fauxzeki" wordplay, but hey...

In my opinion, the Japanese Ozeki cannot actually seriously compete with the top four rikishi, at least not consistently. That's the reason why they are not Yokozuna, and the reason why they are typically ranged fifth to seventh on the banzuke. It hurts me that I even have to spell out something that is so obvious. You DO know that there is a difference between Yokozuna and Ozeki, do you?

What I'd like to know from you is: who should be Ozeki in their stead? I couldn't come up with a list of rikishi who are ranked behind the three Japanese Ozeki and who *consistently* are better than them.

Name me someone, anyone who is consistently better than Kisenosato, yet is unjustifiably ranked behind him.

Heck, I would have even trouble naming someone, anyone who is consistently better than Kotoshogiku and Goeido, but ranked behind them. Maybe Tochinoshin, but apart from him?

As you can so easily dismiss the Japanese Ozeki as "fauxzeki", you would certainly have no problems to come up with a long list of rikishi who are more worthy. I'm waiting for it...

[Asashosakari]

It is probably in vain to discuss the Ozeki with someone who overjoys in using the oh-so-clever "fauxzeki" wordplay, but hey...

One might say it's faux-so-clever.

[Dapeng]

since you are here, can you share your views on the 'giku basho? was that a real win or a set up?

are the fauxzeki not false at all? they are powerful rikishi, capable to earn and hold ozeki status, and can actually seriously compete with the top four rikishi?

Several people (including me) have extensively outlined their viewpoint with regard to the Kotoshogiku yusho in particular, and the conspiracy theorist's stance in general. Why you repeatedly state that nobody would address your questions, is beyond me.

It is probably in vain to discuss the Ozeki with someone who overjoys in using the oh-so-clever "fauxzeki" wordplay, but hey...

In my opinion, the Japanese Ozeki cannot actually seriously compete with the top four rikishi, at least not consistently. That's the reason why they are not Yokozuna, and the reason why they are typically ranged fifth to seventh on the banzuke. It hurts me that I even have to spell out something that is so obvious. You DO know that there is a difference between Yokozuna and Ozeki, do you?

What I'd like to know from you is: who should be Ozeki in their stead? I couldn't come up with a list of rikishi who are ranked behind the three Japanese Ozeki and who *consistently* are better than them.

Name me someone, anyone who is consistently better than Kisenosato, yet is unjustifiably ranked behind him.

Heck, I would have even trouble naming someone, anyone who is consistently better than Kotoshogiku and Goeido, but ranked behind them. Maybe Tochinoshin, but apart from him?

As you can so easily dismiss the Japanese Ozeki as "fauxzeki", you would certainly have no problems to come up with a long list of rikishi who are more worthy. I'm waiting for it...

What does the old saying "9-6 ozeki" means? My understanding is that if an ozeki scores 9-6, he is a poor ozeki. What's the average scores of Giku and Goeido?

If 9-6 is the minimum requirement for an ozeki, Kisenosato is the only one who meets the requirement.

[hamcornheinz]

aloha, hamcornheinz

that's kind of a spiteful comment, eh?

you've been posting on this thread,

have you read it?

my views were requested, then provided

sorry if they were not coherent enough for you, but you can always get a more detailed description at sumotalk, if you want to learn about yaocho, etc

so, why not share what you are seeing?

are you amongst those that see the fauxzeki as legit? yaocho and mukiryoku are only delusional conspiracist notions?

Well, i was just pointing out your self-contradictions were non-coherent..... which is why you chose to delete the thread calling out your self-contradictions in your reply. Feel free to not reply to this as well.

[Pandaazuma]

I tried to find it with the search function but couldn't. Didn't someone list all the averages of ozeki somewhere here? If anyone knows where it is, I'd like to see it.

I've noticed many fans tend to have very inflated expectations for ozeki (and yokozuna) when the historical reality speaks otherwise, as I recall. That's my sense anyway. In my opinion, if an ozeki goes 9-6, he's done fairly well. 10-5 would be a good basho. For a yokozuna, I'd say 10-5 for fair and 11-4 for 'boy done good'.

Now Rando, Asashosakari or Gurowake will show me how far off from reality I am! ;)

[Pandaazuma]

Excellent. Thanks.

[wuli]

Well, i was just pointing out your self-contradictions were non-coherent..... which is why you chose to delete the thread calling out your self-contradictions in your reply. Feel free to not reply to this as well.

i'm pretty sure that i have not deleted anything, and that your assertion is not true

thanks for the offer to not reply

if you don't want a reply, please don't address me

didn't we agree to disagree, in private messaging?

shall we leave it at that?

[wuli]

Several people (including me) have extensively outlined their viewpoint with regard to the Kotoshogiku yusho in particular, and the conspiracy theorist's stance in general. Why you repeatedly state that nobody would address your questions, is beyond me.

It is probably in vain to discuss the Ozeki with someone who overjoys in using the oh-so-clever "fauxzeki" wordplay, but hey...

In my opinion, the Japanese Ozeki cannot actually seriously compete with the top four rikishi, at least not consistently. That's the reason why they are not Yokozuna, and the reason why they are typically ranged fifth to seventh on the banzuke. It hurts me that I even have to spell out something that is so obvious. You DO know that there is a difference between Yokozuna and Ozeki, do you?

What I'd like to know from you is: who should be Ozeki in their stead? I couldn't come up with a list of rikishi who are ranked behind the three Japanese Ozeki and who *consistently* are better than them.

Name me someone, anyone who is consistently better than Kisenosato, yet is unjustifiably ranked behind him.

Heck, I would have even trouble naming someone, anyone who is consistently better than Kotoshogiku and Goeido, but ranked behind them. Maybe Tochinoshin, but apart from him?

As you can so easily dismiss the Japanese Ozeki as "fauxzeki", you would certainly have no problems to come up with a long list of rikishi who are more worthy. I'm waiting for it...

regarding the addressing of my viewpoints, my post was responding to guruwake, whose view (beyond stats) has yet to post

your posts and some others have been pertinent and are appreciated

i am still interested in more views, particularly from those bent on slamming mike but not giving their own perspectives

who is better than kise'? i don't know

how can we know?, with the piles of gives at the top, most of which seem to be mostly for keeping the story alive for the three weaker ozekis (correction on overuse of fauxzeki accepted; it just is so apt)

is there a rule that we must have at least three ozeki?

what is wrong with just real sumo, letting a legitimate ranking occur by itself?

with that, i'd expect tochinoshin, takarafuji, toyonoshima, aioyama, yoshikaze, kaisei, aminishiki, sokukurai, and ichinojo to get more wins than they often do

of course, these have gotten a few gifts too, but not near what they've given up

i bet kisenosato would like more straight fights, too

i often get the feeling that his general dour appearance is related; i think it is possible that receiving gifts makes him quite angry, like the time recently that tochiozan kind of ran away, then out, and kise' then threw him off the dohyo anyway

`

[apraxin]

regarding the addressing of my viewpoints, my post was responding to guruwake, whose view (beyond stats) has yet to post

your posts and some others have been pertinent and are appreciated

i am still interested in more views, particularly from those bent on slamming mike but not giving their own perspectives

Ok.

-Is there yaocho in the sense that a nebulous 'they' are fixing a huge number of bouts, determining who wins the yusho, etc, according to some predetermined plan? No. There is no evidence of this at all, and the actual results of the last decade or so go against the usual conspiracy narrative of what 'they' want. Kise still doesn't have a single yusho. There's been no Japanese yokozuna for more than 13 years. Hakuho has broken pretty much every longstanding record of Taio and Chiyonofuji. A series of young Japanese hopefuls have burst into makuuchi amid great media fanfare and then settled down into maegashira mediocrity.

Could this same 'they' influence the results of certain individual bouts to the benefit of their favored rikishi? It's not impossible and would require much less effort than rigging things on a grand scale, but again there's no evidence, and based on the results 'they' either really love Hakuho or are really bad at match fixing.

-Is there yaocho in the sense that rikishi are throwing seemingly random matches of their own volition, for financial gain? It's as possible as it is in any other sport. In the absence of any positive evidence, I don't think it's happening currently, but wouldn't be shocked beyond belief if it comes to light.

-Is there mukiryoku in the sense that rikishi will go easy on an opponent who needs the win, in return for a quid pro quo later? After watching years of Kaio limp to another 8-7 against a suddenly listless opponent, I think it's quite likely. Is it widespread? Well, it's based on the idea of people begging wins to keep from a losing record, so unless the whole division is fine with a status quo and 8-7s all round, I'd think it's mostly restricted to the ozeki and guys with 7-7s on the last day. Just my guess though, as once again there's no evidence.

-Is there mukiryoku in the sense that once someone has a certain number of wins they don't fight as hard, either because they're nursing an injury or because they don't give a damn now they have their kachikoshi? Almost certainly. But that's the same as in any sport with this sort of tournament format. A football team in mid-table on the last day of the season facing a team with a chance of winning the championship or being relegated will likely not play with the same spirit as their opponent. It would be nice if everyone went all-out all the time, but it's not unique to sumo and it's a stretch to call it 'fixing' the result.

My issue with Mike is not that he suggests that yaocho is a thing, it's that he's so certain in everything he writes when all it's based on is his watching the bouts and having an opinion. Just from a quick scan of his latest report: Sadogatake bought Kotooshu's yusho, Ikioi's 10-5 is a fraud, and Akiseyama needed two yaocho wins to get a 4-11. All stated as 100% fact, based on...? Does Mike have a mole inside the match-fixing committee? The ability to read the hearts of men when he sees a video of them?

Edited April 11, 2016 by apraxin

[Gurowake]

So, how will Kise be gifted a Yusho such that he can screw it up?

in pretty much the same way that the 'giku was recently gifted a yusho that he didn't screw up

since you are here, can you share your views on the 'giku basho? was that a real win or a set up?

are the fauxzeki not false at all? they are powerful rikishi, capable to earn and hold ozeki status, and can actually seriously compete with the top four rikishi?

I don't believe there is enough evidence to think that Kotoshogiku did not earn the Yusho. Events that seem miraculous happen every day by random chance; I see no reason to ascribe extra hypotheses to what goes on on the dohyo beyond that the competition ultimately is not deterministic. I have in the past used many examples to show that there is no reason to think that the rikishi who is overall better is going to win absolutely every single time. That Kotoshogiku was not able to follow up his 14 wins with anything close to the same is regression to the mean. Even if he had won another 14, I would expect him to have a Yokozuna career similar to Kakuryu's, not to continue getting 12+ wins every tournament.

I don't see any reason to believe that the current Ozeki did not perform as needed to be promoted. Goeido was a bit of a stretch; I rated Tochiozan higher than him until this last tournament, he got somewhat lucky to get promoted, and perhaps might have been demoted if things hadn't gone his way, but right now there's no one else not an Ozeki that I would rank ahead of him. And the other Ozeki are just clearly better. But I'm assuming that most fights are straight; I suppose if you think they're mostly crooked, you can come up with absolutely any sort of ranking system you like. As suggested by my previous post though, trying to make predictions on those sorts of assumptions will lead you to making predictions that don't actually predict anything, while I have performed consistently in the top tier of the prediction gamers since going to a purely statistical analysis of past results. If such an analysis is capable of making predictions just as good as those that have been following the sport much longer, it suggests that the results are extremely predictive of future success, whereas if you assume that everything is crooked, such an analysis would be worthless.

Yes, some things here and there might not be 100% on the up-and-up, but that's no reason to believe there is any systematic tinkering with results.

Edited April 11, 2016 by Gurowake