Podcast - Yaocho discussion

[Kintamayama]

Me and Mike of Sumotalk calmly discussing the issue for an hour and a half, totally disagreeing about everything possible.

Video version:

Audio

You can't understand a word I'm saying.

Edited February 17, 2016 by Kintamayama

[orandashoho]

Pity the sound was so bad at your end. It amazes me they didn't stop and try for a better connection.

[Asashosakari]

You can't understand a word I'm saying.

Conspiracy.

[K. Sear]

Wow, that sound quality is terrible. Kind of bush league podcasting right there.

[Gurowake]

From what you have posted about this, I have absolutely no incentive to listen it. I absolutely don't want to hear any of Maiku's nonsense, especially if his interlocuter is not understandable. Maybe someone can make a transcript? Or at least a summary? I guess there already is a summary that tells me what I really need to know, so, eh, whatever.

[wuli]

Me and Mike of Sumotalk calmly discussing the issue for an hour and a half, totally disagreeing about everything possible.

Video version:

Audio

You can't understand a word I'm saying.

excellent

open coverage of how contemporary sumo really works, especially the changing role of yaocho in recent years

many thanks, moti

something for conspiracy obsessionists to froth over; make ready for the gangsters

for more fightbox podcast coverage, with better sound

http://www.fightbox.com/en/podcast

the sumo episodes are 59, 52, 27 and 9

[Kintamayama]

I actually said many clever things and sounded as if I knew what I was talking about at some point there.

[Atenzan]

Moti "Dinche"... that must have felt bad.

[Tenshinhan]

Mike said that since their successful Ozeki runs, Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku never got the same good results again. Could he please have a closer look at the records of Kisenosato?

[Dapeng]

I don't think these days there are winnings or losses being sold or bought with money (i.e., the real "yaocho"), and I don't think the non-money version of "yaocho" or "mukyroku" is as rampant as Mike said, although I believe the non-money version does exist and not rare.

For example rikishi may trade favors to save them from being demoted. The most apparent case is that a kadoban Ozeki rarely lost when he was 7-7 on the last day of the basho. However, the kadoban Ozeki (or other rikishi) had to reach 7-7 first, or else no one could save him.

The rikishi who mukyroku a bout must play it expertly, and this is not easy -- you have to put some real effort into it, or else ordinary spectators will see it and complain about it. But if he puts too much effort into it, his "mukyroku" may fail. I'm a regular table tennis player and have the experience of failed "mukyroku" game :-)

Anyway, Sumo is a kind of entertainment. If the rikishi can make the "mukyroku" look real to the majorities of spectators, I have no objection to it, as long as no money is involved.

No professional sport is clean. Sumo is no exception.

Edited February 18, 2016 by Dapeng

[Gurowake]

Mike said that since their successful Ozeki runs, Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku never got the same good results again. Could he please have a closer look at the records of Kisenosato?

Don't let facts get in the way of a good theory. I doubt Mike cares what their actual records have been, only what he perceives.

Edited February 18, 2016 by Gurowake

[Atenzan]

Tenshinhan, adding to that, it is completely wrong of both the "neutral" ant Maiku to say that Kotoshougiku's yusho was out of left field/ only could have been bought/ a one-time fluke. Since Aki he has shown fighting spirit and gambarization which is not reflected in his hoshitori. Need I remind everyone he was injured in Kyushu and very possibly Aki.

[Kintamayama]

The best part of the discussion was when Mike said something along the lines that he is looking forward to the next basho "without trying to find the yaocho" and three minutes later said he will be "looking for the signs of yaocho from the beginning."

It's really a shame that my take is inaudible here. Though when Don said "Kotoshougiku really gambarized" I was really proud for a moment..

Edited February 18, 2016 by Kintamayama

[Kintamayama]

Moti "Dinche"... that must have felt bad.

Dinche know that?

Edited February 18, 2016 by Kintamayama

[Unkonoyama]

It is a shame they couldn't do something about the audio, I really wanted to hear what you had to say but it just sounds like the adults on the old Peanuts specials "wah wah wah wah". Roughly 19-20 minutes in and the only word I could definitely hear clearly is "testicles".

[Asashosakari]

Mike said that since their successful Ozeki runs, Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku never got the same good results again. Could he please have a closer look at the records of Kisenosato?

Don't let facts get in the way of a good theory. I doubt Mike cares what their actual records have been, only what he perceives.

I suppose that's the same approach that was evident in a post-basho report a little while ago, which went something like, "Tochiozan posted a 10-5 record this basho, but his two wins over the yokozuna were obvious yaocho, so the best-performing Japanese rikishi really had only 8 wins". Because it's just obvious that Japanese rikishi can't possibly be better than 8-7 in the joi, dontcha know.

That aside, it's really not unusual that career ozeki had their best-ever performances as part of their ozeki run:

1) There must be some rikishi whose "true level" is that of an average (or below-average) ozeki.

2) Many careers have a very small number of short, significant peaks, often just one (e.g. Kyokutenho's yusho, Hokutoriki's fluke 13-2, Tochiozan posting 30-in-3 exactly once, etc.).

3) Peak performance tends to directly lead to peak ranking.

Unsurprisingly, a guy good enough to be a mediocre ozeki, who will be spending a lot of his time competing in the lower joi, will probably have his peak performance as a joi-ranked rikishi, which will then result in him getting promoted to ozeki (and not doing much afterwards).

Exactly the same thing happens to:

- future mediocre joi-jin rikishi; the type of rikishi who gets to S/K only once or twice, but spends a lot of time in the upper maegashira ranks

- future mediocre mid-maegashira; the type of rikishi who only makes a handful of appearances in the joi, but is a regular makuuchi participant

- future cup-of-coffee maegashira; the type of rikishi who only makes a handful of appearances in makuuchi, and struggles to get KK there, but is a regular juryo participant

- future cup-of-coffee juryo; the type of rikishi who only makes a handful of appearances in juryo, and struggles to get KK there, but is a regular in upper makushita

And so on, and on, and on. All of them tend to have their top performances while ranked right below their (future) peak positions. Of course, when it happens in the tiny area of the rankings that Sumotalkers actually pay attention to, it's obviously yaocho. But who knows, maybe it's yaocho everywhere else, too, because there's no such thing as "unusually good short-term performance". After all, in which other sport do athletes ever excel briefly and then fall back to their normal level? It's totally unheard of. Everybody's either consistently mediocre or consistently great. Who would be watching professional sports if it was any different?

[Ryoshishokunin]

If you assume any amount of luck at all being present in sumo, then it doesn't even take variability in the quality of sumo from a particular rikishi. Sometimes they get lucky, other times they don't. Given that after they do well they face harder opposition (though not in the joi), you'd expect not only regression to the mean but also strength-of-schedule to cause people to do worse after they do better than expected. Regression to the mean is a real thing with real consequences. So is 'getting lucky'.

(Also by definition you can't have your peak performance at your peak rank until you reach the top...)

[Gurowake]

But who knows, maybe it's yaocho everywhere else, too,

That's exactly what it is to him. He doesn't understand the concept of luck in a contest of physical skill. He's clearly never actually played any sport competitively in his life. Even chess matches aren't 100% predictable because sometimes someone makes a move that is brilliant but for reasons they don't even realize, so you can even luck into wins that way over opponents who are better.

That Tochiozan quote is hilarious. Yeah, OK, Tochiozan bought two wins over Yokozuna, and got nothing to show for it except the same result as if he had beaten the maegashira he lost to instead. If he had enough money to decide to start an Ozeki run based on yaocho, how could he not throw a little money at those few weaker maegashira? He's just throwing money away to the Yokozuna in case he happens to somehow actually manage to beat everyone else? It's that kind of nonsense why I don't bother even looking at his website any more.

[PhorCillic]

I guess Mike yaocho'd the podcast. That's why there were problems with Kinta's audio. XD

[Asashosakari]

(Also by definition you can't have your peak performance at your peak rank until you reach the top...)

Although it's somewhat different for sekiwake and ozeki, because it's possible to have a peak that's too short to qualify for further advancement.

[orandashoho]

I wouldn't call Kyokutenho's peak performance short or inconsistent.

[CT3*]

But who knows, maybe it's yaocho everywhere else, too,

That's exactly what it is to him. He doesn't understand the concept of luck in a contest of physical skill. He's clearly never actually played any sport competitively in his life. Even chess matches aren't 100% predictable because sometimes someone makes a move that is brilliant but for reasons they don't even realize, so you can even luck into wins that way over opponents who are better.

That Tochiozan quote is hilarious. Yeah, OK, Tochiozan bought two wins over Yokozuna, and got nothing to show for it except the same result as if he had beaten the maegashira he lost to instead. If he had enough money to decide to start an Ozeki run based on yaocho, how could he not throw a little money at those few weaker maegashira? He's just throwing money away to the Yokozuna in case he happens to somehow actually manage to beat everyone else? It's that kind of nonsense why I don't bother even looking at his website any more.

He doesn't always imply that money is involved or that anyone is buying "wins over Yokozuna". In fact, he usually suggests that the Mongolians are sometimes gifting wins or not fighting at their true ability, in order to give the impression that the Japanese rikishi are on the same level.

[wuli]

He doesn't always imply that money is involved or that anyone is buying "wins over Yokozuna". In fact, he usually suggests that the Mongolians are sometimes gifting wins or not fighting at their true ability, in order to give the impression that the Japanese rikishi are on the same level.

this is a meaningful observation, for those inclined to learning

typical of many that are possible, but nearly always overlooked by those of calcified inclination in their so limited outlook

again, deep thanks to moti, for posting an opening allowing deeper understanding of the actual workings of sumo, even when his own observations were so badly garbled by skype's evershifting performance

[Tenshinhan]

Tenshinhan, adding to that, it is completely wrong of both the "neutral" ant Maiku to say that Kotoshougiku's yusho was out of left field/ only could have been bought/ a one-time fluke. Since Aki he has shown fighting spirit and gambarization which is not reflected in his hoshitori. Need I remind everyone he was injured in Kyushu and very possibly Aki.

Indeed Giku showed a clear improvement of his sumo since Aki Basho where he went 11-4. In Fukuoka he had a very strong first week, maybe got injured in the second. At first glance, it looks unbelievable that he beat all three Yokozuna but actually he has quite good head-to-head records against Kakuryu and Harumafuji and well, since a few basho Hakuho just isn't the same anymore.

By the way, Hakuho vs Kisenosato was obvious yaocho of course because the Mongolian Yokozuna weren't allowed to let Kisenosato go kadoban. :-)

Seriously, I didn't know what Hakuho was trying to do in this bout but is there actually anybody who understands what Hakuho is doing lately?

2) Many careers have a very small number of short, significant peaks, often just one (e.g. Kyokutenho's yusho, Hokutoriki's fluke 13-2, Tochiozan posting 30-in-3 exactly once, etc.).

Mike said the Natsu Basho 2012 was an obvious attempt to give the yusho to a Japanese rikishi. I guess unfortunately they forgot to involve Baruto who accidentally beat Kisenosato on the last day. But if you watch the yusho ketteisen carefully again, you can clearly see how Kyokutenho tries to lose by stepping backwards. Too bad that Tochiozan hit the ground before... (Laughing...)

That Tochiozan quote is hilarious. Yeah, OK, Tochiozan bought two wins over Yokozuna, and got nothing to show for it except the same result as if he had beaten the maegashira he lost to instead. If he had enough money to decide to start an Ozeki run based on yaocho, how could he not throw a little money at those few weaker maegashira? He's just throwing money away to the Yokozuna in case he happens to somehow actually manage to beat everyone else? It's that kind of nonsense why I don't bother even looking at his website any more.

Yes, that's exactly what makes these theories so hard to believe. Why didn't they just orchestrate the yusho for Tochiozan in Nagoya last year. It would have been so easy... instead he started to lose against Japanese maegashira who absolutely didn't seem to care about a Japanese yusho winner... but maybe they wanted to wait for the ten year anniversary.

Nevertheless, there is one case where I would start to believe in conspiracy theories: If Goeido gets Kachikoshi next basho... :-P

[wuli]

Nevertheless, there is one case where I would start to believe in conspiracy theories: If Goeido gets Kachikoshi next basho... :-P

make ready then,

at this point, all possibilities are in play

we can only pray for a day when all pretend ozekis (and yokozunas, for that matter) are dumped, with politics falling as low as possible, allowing for more authentic sumo

however, even with the most extreme prayer, probably none of us is holding our breath for this