Is there a "ranking" of most eligible Yokozuna prospects?

[SumoSumoSumo]

While similar to what a Banzuke does, the difference in this is that age and potential get taken into account in addition to the merit of your current place and how close you are/history/etc.

Essentially, I already know there aren't "that" many with potential of Yokozuna, but the ranking still could give me (and others I suppose) a real sense of how members of this extremely knowledgeable community feel overall about certain rikishi (I am trying to use my basic vocab learned on here when I can, so if I use it incorrectly, let me know I have no concern with being told a mistake).

See, I know most wrestlers only through the lens of daily input about their matches. As a result, I don't know as much about what their real "expectations" are and/or were, at what age/point optimism about certain goals start to fade away in terms of reaching a plateau, what certain indicators might be (if any, and beyond winning of course) about what the ceiling is of a certain guy. And also, this is about the odds of becoming Yokozuna ever, not about being the next one. And also, I realize that even once you're at #5,6 etc, you might already be into the single digits of percentage of this ever happening.

So, if I were to guess a "most eligible yokozuna top ten", it would be this:

Terunofuji

Ichinojo (already the plateau starts here)

Kisenosato

Osunaarashi (another example where age comes into play)

Tochiozan

Tochinoshin

Goeido

Yoshikaze (this is where another drop off is starting)

Ikioi

Aioyama

So, I guarantee my list is terrible, and I know a few reasons why already. Well first, I don't know anyone consistently in Juryo and below, since I (for now) only can watch the Makuuchi division. And those are also guys I am interested in if there are phenoms I would have no clue about. 2nd, I probably did a terrible job placing the more age promising wrestlers in their proper spot anyway. Osunaarashi is an example wildcard here mostly because he seems to wrestle the top guys tough already and is only 23. This isn't my steadfast opinion, it was more an exercise so I can see what people with far more knowledge think. That's just an example of projecting that 5 years from now Osunaarashi might be far ahead of where some of his fellow 28/29 year old wrestlers are now.

This "potential" thing does raise a few further questions. At what age are you no longer "young" anymore? 25/26? And then at what age are your physical attributes most likely fully peaked, 28/29/30? It looks like the oldest guy in recent memory to get promoted was Asahifuji right at 30. It makes what someone like Yoshikaze is doing right now pretty cool.

Alright well, thanks for any input on this, any info about wrestlers and potential, that whole dynamic, is great, I don't need top 50 lists with deep explanations haha. Thanks for any response.

Edited December 18, 2015 by SumoSumoSumo

[hamcornheinz]

I would think in terms not of age but of injuries (obviously people like yoshikaze are too old), I would doubt that Osunaarashi could get ozeki even, because hes so injury-laden, same with Tochinoshin. I'm thinking in terms of Musashimaru and even Kakuryu who both sort of stayed around in ozeki for a great deal of time, performing sorta ok, then suddenly breaking out and reaching yokozuna. So I would probably say Kisenosato if he can get his head together, stop loosing to lower-ranked fighters and start really gunning for it. Its not easy being a Kisenosato fan, but you don't choose the Kise life, the Kise life chooses you.

[Washuyama]

IMHO, predicting yokozuna is a total guessing game. For every Kitanoumi, Takanohana, Asashoryu and Hakuho who "always" appeared as destined, there are a number of Kotozakura, Mienoumi, Wakanohana, Chiyonofuji and Kakuryu who sort of made it out of nowhere. There are also those who probably would/should have made it if not for injuries (Baruto comes to mind) or bad luck (Konishiki and Kaio) or maybe just-didn't-want-to (Kotooshu?) and maybe not-strong-enough-mentally (Kisenosato).

Predicting Ozeki is probably easier due to requirements (33-ish wins over 3 basho. versus consecutive yusho or equivalent.) Using your list above, I would say Ichinojo and maybe Osunaarashi and Ikioi will probably(?) make Ozeki.

Edit: Hamcornheinz posted while I was typing....

Edited December 18, 2015 by Washuyama

[CT3*]

I could see Tochinoshin making Ozeki. But I've been watching sumo long enough to know that things can change, especially with injury. I remember thinking that Baruto would definitely make Yokozuna. I was wrong.

[inhashi]

As much as I'd like to see Kisenosato promoted, it's likely not to happen. In a recent informal interview, even Asashoryu says there is no possibility for a Japanese Yokozuna in the near future. I'd rather have Kise be one of the greatest ozeki in history rather than a mediocre or poor performing yokozuna anyway.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyRpJ4mleQI

Edited January 5, 2016 by inhashi

[Finngall]

As much as I'd like to see Kisenosato promoted, it's likely not to happen. In a recent informal interview, even Asashoryu says there is no possibility for a Japanese Yokozuna in the near future. I'd rather have Kise be one of the greatest ozeki in history rather than a mediocre or poor performing yokozuna anyway.

He's only five yusho behind Kaio, after all...

[hamcornheinz]

For some guys something just has to click, especially for these guys who come out of nowhere, Masashimaru, Wakanohana, Kakuryu, Chiyonofuji etc.... and I think Kisenosato is only missing ONE element. If that "clicks", he could win 4 or 5 I think

[inhashi]

If he can just win three... :-/ Although, for Japan, one. Just... one...

[Seijakuzan]

Predicting Ozeki is probably easier due to requirements (33-ish wins over 3 basho. versus consecutive yusho or equivalent.) Using your list above, I would say Ichinojo and maybe Osunaarashi and Ikioi will probably(?) make Ozeki.

I love Ikioi, but at this point I can't see that happening. He hasn't shown any ability to beat the sanyaku, let alone the yokozunae. Oddly, he does well against Terunofuji of all people (3-1).

He's pretty much a bigger Yoshikaze - minus the kinboshi. But he does have another 4 years to start beating yokozunae quicker than Yoshikaze has, so plenty of time to prove me wrong.

[Katooshu]

Terunofuji is the only one who stands out for me.

I also chuckled at the thought of Aoiyama being yokozuna (Laughing...)

Edited December 18, 2015 by Kotooshu's Revenge

[Dapeng]

The next yokozuna will be Terunofuji and few will argue about this. No next next one within 3 years. However, a Japan-born will win a yusho in upper 2016.

[Benevolance]

Top 5 yok candidates

1. Goeidou

2. Goueido

3. Goeedo

4. Goudiooh

5. Goo-Ehdo!

[Gurowake]

I can see Terunofuji not making Yokozuna since his knee injury. He had passed Kisenosato in my rankings a couple days before that, but since then hasn't looked any better than a top-quality Ozeki, having some rather poor losses. Osunaarashi and Ichinojo are definite considerations in the long-term, but they clearly have a way to go as they can't even manage to stay in the joi. I also wouldn't discount Takayasu completely, and am surprised he hasn't been mentioned. He hasn't lived up to his expectations after reaching the joi at a fairly young age. If he continues to develop he might make it.

In the super-long term there's Onosho, who is rather young for a sekitori, although not as young as Kisenosato was. If he had done well in upper Juryo and gotten a record that could have promoted him to Makuuchi then he'd be about level with Hakuho in terms of age of Makuuchi promotion. I don't know the prognosis of his injury, if it was something that had been bothering him earlier in the tournament, or what. In the ultra-long term, there was some hope with Sato when he was 3-0 in Kyushu, but losing his last 4 matches was a major setback. He's approximately the same age as Onosho and if he'd not have hit the wall, it would be reasonable to assume he was on as similar career track. Looking even further into the future there's Takayoshitoshi and perhaps his brother Takagenji, but their progress has been stalled in mid-to-low-makushita. A bit behind the previously mentioned ones on the age/rank curve are Hakuyozan, Meisei, Rikishin, and Terutsuyoshi still in Makushita, and Daieisho and Kagayaki as sekitori. The only other guy I have my eye on in terms of age/rank is Inoue, who has 4 straight KKs to start his career, with a 5-2 at the top of Jonidan in Kyushu, while starting out at age 15. This time last year I would have said Shonannoumi, but he hasn't really improved at all in the last year.

As for the rest of them, like college entrants Mitakeumi, Shodai, and Abiko, there's no real good way to tell. My best guess is they end up like Takarafuji. Mitakeumi showed promise, but his Makuuchi debut was underwhelming. If he turns a much better performance next time maybe there's something there. Shodai and Abiko had much more rocky goings in upper Makushita, although the former did outstanding in Juryo and potentially shows the same promise as Mitakeumi did.

[luispereira]

Ichinojo will soon lose is baby fat and gain powerful muscles and mad skills... he will become known has "the godzilla" and will end hakuho's and harumafuji's career by severe injuries inflicted upon them! and that will determine the new post-hakuho era.... or maybe not....

[Finngall]

Top 5 Sekiwake candidates

1. Goeidou

2. Goueido

3. Goeedo

4. Goudiooh

5. Goo-Ehdo!

Fixed your post.

[K. Sear]

However, a Japan-born will win a yusho in upper 2016.

That soon? Seriously? Who do you have taking it? Only Kisenosato is really on the radar in my books, but you sound like you have some other guys in mind.

[Dapeng]

However, a Japan-born will win a yusho in upper 2016.

That soon? Seriously? Who do you have taking it? Only Kisenosato is really on the radar in my books, but you sound like you have some other guys in mind.

I don't know who, but anyone who played like Shohozan in last basho. Most probably Kisenosato.

[ALAKTORN]

I only see Terunofuji and Kisenosato as prospects right now. Terunofuji would’ve become yokozuna within 2016 if it weren’t for his injury, but now I’m not sure if he’s even a prospect still; depends on whether the injury can fully heal or not. Kisenosato has been a prospect forever but was never able to break through.

Ichinojō has a terrible mentality and I don’t see him becoming yokozuna. The guy had a goal of not going over 200kg, and he’s now over 210 with no stop in sight.

Ōsunaarashi is way too riddled with injuries to make it to yokozuna.

For all the other names that were brough up, I just don’t see them as being good enough. Can’t tell with the really young prospects, though.

Edited December 18, 2015 by ALAKTORN

[Dapeng]

I only see Terunofuji and Kisenosato as prospects right now. Terunofuji would’ve become yokozuna within 2016 if it weren’t for his injury, but now I’m not sure if he’s even a prospect still; depends on whether the injury can fully heal or not. Kisenosato has been a prospect forever but was never able to break through.

Ichinojō has a terrible mentality and I don’t see him becoming yokozuna. The guy had a goal of not going over 200kg, and he’s now over 210 with no stop in sight.

Ōsunaarashi is way too riddled with injuries to make it to yokozuna.

For all the other names that were brough up, I just don’t see them as being good enough. Can’t tell with the really young prospects, though.

If there's a new yokozuna within 3 years, it will be Terunofuji. Otherwise no one.

[Fukurou]

So y'all think former wonderboy Endo has no chance at the top 2 ranks? I'm not seeing it, but some seemed to think so a couple years ago.

[Benevolance]

Go-endo?

[Washuyama]

I would say .... and Ikioi will probably(?) make Ozeki.

I love Ikioi, but at this point I can't see that happening.

Now that I look more at it, you're probably right. For some reason, I thought he was 24-ish instead of his actual 29.

[Asashosakari]

I love Ikioi, but at this point I can't see that happening.

Now that I look more at it, you're probably right. For some reason, I thought he was 24-ish instead of his actual 29.

He's the new Homasho, that guy still had some people thinking he's a fresh and talented upstart after he was already on the wrong side of 30. ;-)

IMHO, predicting yokozuna is a total guessing game. For every Kitanoumi, Takanohana, Asashoryu and Hakuho who "always" appeared as destined, there are a number of Kotozakura, Mienoumi, Wakanohana, Chiyonofuji and Kakuryu who sort of made it out of nowhere. There are also those who probably would/should have made it if not for injuries (Baruto comes to mind) or bad luck (Konishiki and Kaio) or maybe just-didn't-want-to (Kotooshu?) and maybe not-strong-enough-mentally (Kisenosato).

Yeah, this. This isn't like looking at a baseball draft class of 1500 kids and trying to pick out two dozen potential future all-stars based on what talent they've shown in high school or college. Rikishi turnover is so small and the yokozuna rank is so elite that there are only those three approaches to the question - 1) name only the rare "can't-miss" guys, 2) name guys who are already very well-known and only have a small way to go, or 3) name anyone who's young and looks even halfway likely to reach upper makuuchi - none of which is particularly illuminating.

I could semi-randomly throw out a name like Kiribayama here, but the likelihood is probably 99% that he's at best a future version of Kyokushuho, not a future yokozuna. Basically, if we're talking about rikishi who are still mostly untested, it's a complete crapshoot, and if we're talking about rikishi with some track record, chances are their yokozuna likelihood has already dropped to 0% because they've demonstrated that they just don't have "it". Outside of Terunofuji and Kisenosato I'm not sure anyone's worth being concerned with at this time. (Certainly not Onosho or Sato; young as they are, they just don't have the size needed to make it.)

This "potential" thing does raise a few further questions. At what age are you no longer "young" anymore? 25/26? And then at what age are your physical attributes most likely fully peaked, 28/29/30? It looks like the oldest guy in recent memory to get promoted was Asahifuji right at 30. It makes what someone like Yoshikaze is doing right now pretty cool.

It's hard to say if this might be changing lately, but historically makuuchi-quality rikishi tend to peak at some point between ages 27 and 29, with an extended prime that's perhaps three years on either side of that point, so something like 25-31, give or take a year. Rikishi who come to prominence early also tend to start falling apart earlier, rikishi who reach the high ranks with relatively little mileage on their bodies (e.g. many collegiate guys) tend to last longer but they're often paying for it by arriving with reduced upside in the first place.

But overall there's fairly big variation among actual careers, mostly because the role injuries play in sumo is relatively large compared to a lot of other sports.

Edited December 19, 2015 by Asashosakari

[wuli]

provacative consideration!

thank you, sumosumosumo

sans political and injury considerations (granted, major sans), and only including makuuchi,

first tier- terunofuji, ichinojo (i here predict, he will get his mojo back, by and by)

second tier- osunaarashi, kisenosato, tochinoshin

both these tiers only as those with potential, per the initial consideration, not as those with much likelihood

teru clearly has a big leg up re likelihood; kise next, also from ozeki

as much as many of us would like to see beautiful kise ascend through his full potential,

it is getting late in the game, but hope remains; tochinoshin is aging along as well, relative to the rest

i like the mention of takayasu

if he were made mad enough for each bout, it would amount to many wins; unrealistic, however

[hamcornheinz]

He's pretty much a bigger Yoshikaze - minus the kinboshi. But he does have another 4 years to start beating yokozunae quicker than Yoshikaze has, so plenty of time to prove me wrong.

How is this even remotely correct?